Search Results (489)

The rise in illicit financial activities across the South Africa–Zimbabwe corridor, with an estimated annual loss of $3.1 billion demands advanced AI solutions to augment traditional detection methods. This study introduces FALCON, a groundbreaking hybrid transformer–GNN model that integrates temporal transaction analysis (TimeGAN) and graph-based entity mapping (GraphSAGE) to detect illicit financial flows with unprecedented precision. By leveraging data from South Africa’s FIC, Zimbabwe’s RBZ, and SWIFT, FALCON achieved 98.7%, surpassing Random Forest (72.1%) and human auditors (64.5%), while reducing false positives to 1.2% (AUC-ROC: 0.992). Tested on 1.8 million transactions, including falsified CTRs, STRs, and Ethereum blockchain data, FALCON uncovered $450 million laundered by 23 shell companies with a cross-border detection precision of 94%, directly mitigating illicit financial flows in Southern Africa. For regulators, FALCON met FAFT standards, yielding 92% court admissibility, and its GDPR-compliant design (ε = 1.2 differential privacy) met stringent legal standards. Deployed on AWS Graviton3, FALCON processed 2 million transactions/second at $0.002 per 1000 transactions, demonstrating real-time scalability, making it cost-effective for financial institutions in emerging markets. As the first AI framework tailored for Southern Africa’s financial ecosystems, FALCON sets a new benchmark for ethical AML solutions in emerging economies with immediate applicability to CBDC supervision. The transparent validation of publicly available data underscores its potential to transform global financial crime detection. Full article

Population aging poses significant challenges to the sustainability of pension systems. This study presents an integrated methodological approach that uniquely combines actuarial life-cycle modeling with agent-based simulation to assess the potential of Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a dual lever for enhancing retiree welfare and supporting pension system resilience under demographic and financial uncertainty. We explore Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a potential financial instrument to support retirees while alleviating pressure on public pensions. Unlike prior research that treats individual decisions or policy outcomes in isolation, our hybrid model explicitly captures feedback loops between household-level behavior and system-wide financial stability. To test our hypothesis that RMLs can improve individual consumption outcomes and bolster systemic solvency, we develop a hybrid model combining actuarial techniques and agent-based simulations, incorporating stochastic housing prices, longevity risk, regulatory capital requirements, and demographic shifts. This dual-framework enables a structured investigation of how micro-level financial decisions propagate through market dynamics, influencing solvency, pricing, and adoption trends. Our central hypothesis is that reverse mortgages, when actuarially calibrated and macroprudentially regulated, enhance individual financial well-being while preserving long-run solvency at the system level. Simulation results indicate that RMLs can improve consumption smoothing, raise expected utility for retirees, and contribute to long-term fiscal sustainability. Moreover, we introduce a dynamic regulatory mechanism that adjusts capital buffers based on evolving market and demographic conditions, enhancing system resilience. Our simulation design supports multi-scenario testing of financial robustness and policy outcomes, providing a transparent tool for stress-testing RML adoption at scale. These findings suggest that, when well-regulated, RMLs can serve as a viable supplement to traditional retirement financing. Rather than offering prescriptive guidance, this framework provides insights to policymakers, financial institutions, and regulators seeking to integrate RMLs into broader pension strategies. Full article

Based on a comprehensive review of the current research status of ecological compensation both domestically and internationally, combined with field survey data, this study delves into the issue of multi-stakeholder participation in the ecological compensation mechanisms of the Xin’an River Basin. This research reveals that the joint participation of multiple stakeholders is crucial to achieving the goals of ecological compensation in river basins. The government plays a significant role in macro-guidance, financial support, policy guarantees, supervision, and management. It promotes the comprehensive implementation of ecological environmental protection by formulating relevant laws and regulations, guiding the public to participate in ecological conservation, and supervising and punishing pollution behaviors. The public, serving as the main force, forms strong awareness and behavioral habits of ecological protection through active participation in environmental protection, monitoring, and feedback. As participants, enterprises contribute to industrial transformation and green development by improving resource utilization efficiency, reducing pollution emissions, promoting green industries, and participating in ecological restoration projects. Scientific research institutions, as technology enablers, have effectively enhanced governance efficiency through technological research and innovation, ecosystem value accounting to provide decision-making support, and public education. Social organizations, as facilitators, have injected vitality and innovation into watershed governance by extensively mobilizing social forces and building multi-party collaboration platforms. Communities, as supporters, have transformed ecological value into economic benefits by developing characteristic industries such as eco-agriculture and eco-tourism. Based on the above findings, further recommendations are proposed to mobilize the enthusiasm of upstream communities and encourage their participation in ecological compensation, promote the market-oriented operation of ecological compensation mechanisms, strengthen cross-regional cooperation to establish joint mechanisms, enhance supervision and evaluation, and establish a sound benefit-sharing mechanism. These recommendations provide theoretical support and practical references for ecological compensation worldwide. Full article

This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate risk and financial stability literature through a systematic review and bibliometric analysis of 174 Scopus-indexed publications from 1988 to 2024. Publications increased by 500% from 1988 to 2019, indicating growing research interest following the 2015 Paris Agreement. It explores how physical and transition climate risks affect financial markets, asset pricing, financial regulation, and long-term sustainability. Common themes include macroprudential policy, climate disclosures, and environmental risk integration in financial management. Influential authors and key journals are identified, with keyword analysis showing strong links between “climate change”, “financial stability”, and “climate risk”. Various methodologies are used, including econometric modeling, panel data analysis, and policy review. The main finding indicates a shift toward integrated, risk-based financial frameworks and rising concern over systemic climate threats. Policy implications include the need for harmonized disclosures, ESG integration, and strengthened adaptation finance mechanisms. Full article

Ecosystem services—the benefits humans derive from nature—are foundational to environmental sustainability and economic well-being, with carbon sequestration and storage standing out as critical regulating services in the fight against climate change. This study presents a comprehensive financial valuation of the carbon sequestration, storage and product substitution ecosystem services provided by the Hungarian forest-based sector. Using a multi-scenario framework, four complementary valuation concepts are assessed: total carbon storage (biomass, soil, and harvested wood products), annual net sequestration, emissions avoided through material and energy substitution, and marketable carbon value under voluntary carbon market (VCM) and EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF) mechanisms. Data sources include the National Forestry Database, the Hungarian Greenhouse Gas Inventory, and national estimates on substitution effects and soil carbon stocks. The total carbon stock of Hungarian forests is estimated at 1289 million tons of CO₂ eq, corresponding to a theoretical climate liability value of over EUR 64 billion. Annual sequestration is valued at approximately 380 million EUR/year, while avoided emissions contribute an additional 453 million EUR/year in mitigation benefits. A comparative analysis of two mutually exclusive crediting strategies—improved forest management projects (IFMs) avoiding final harvesting versus long-term carbon storage through the use of harvested wood products—reveals that intensified harvesting for durable wood use offers higher revenue potential (up to 90 million EUR/year) than non-harvesting IFM scenarios. These findings highlight the dual role of forests as both carbon sinks and sources of climate-smart materials and call for policy frameworks that integrate substitution benefits and long-term storage opportunities in support of effective climate and bioeconomy strategies. Full article

Amid intensifying global ESG regulations and the expanding influence of green finance, China’s digital economy policies have emerged as key institutional instruments for promoting corporate sustainability. Leveraging the implementation of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone as a quasi-natural experiment, this study utilizes panel data of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2023 and applies multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Spatial DID models to rigorously identify the policy’s effects on corporate ESG performance. Empirical results indicate that the impact of digital economy policy is not exerted through a direct linear pathway but operates via three institutional mechanisms, enhanced information transparency, eased financing constraints, and expanded fiscal support, collectively constructing a logic of “institutional embedding–governance restructuring.” Moreover, disruptive technological innovation significantly amplifies the effects of the transparency and fiscal mechanisms, but exhibits no statistically significant moderating effect on the financing constraint pathway, suggesting a misalignment between innovation heterogeneity and financial responsiveness. Further heterogeneity analysis confirms that the policy effect is concentrated among firms characterized by robust governance structures, high levels of property rights marketization, and greater digital maturity. This study contributes to the literature by developing an integrated moderated mediation framework rooted in institutional theory, agency theory, and dynamic capabilities theory. The findings advance the theoretical understanding of ESG policy transmission by unpacking the micro-foundations of institutional response under digital policy regimes, while offering actionable insights into the strategic alignment of digital transformation and sustainability-oriented governance. Full article

Emerging markets face growing pressures to integrate sustainable English business practices while maintaining economic growth, particularly in addressing environmental challenges and achieving carbon neutrality goals. English Financial information extraction becomes crucial for supporting green finance initiatives, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) compliance, and sustainable investment decisions in these markets. This paper presents FinATG, an AI-driven autoregressive framework for extracting sustainability-related English financial information from English texts, specifically designed to support emerging markets in their transition toward sustainable development. The framework addresses the complex challenges of processing ESG reports, green bond disclosures, carbon footprint assessments, and sustainable investment documentation prevalent in emerging economies. FinATG introduces a domain-adaptive span representation method fine-tuned on sustainability-focused English financial corpora, implements constrained decoding mechanisms based on green finance regulations, and integrates FinBERT with autoregressive generation for end-to-end extraction of environmental and governance information. While achieving competitive performance on standard benchmarks, FinATG’s primary contribution lies in its architecture, which prioritizes correctness and compliance for the high-stakes financial domain. Experimental validation demonstrates FinATG’s effectiveness with entity F1 scores of 88.5 and REL F1 scores of 80.2 on standard English datasets, while achieving superior performance (85.7–86.0 entity F1, 73.1–74.0 REL+ F1) on sustainability-focused financial datasets. The framework particularly excels in extracting carbon emission data, green investment relationships, and ESG compliance indicators, achieving average AUC and RGR scores of 0.93 and 0.89 respectively. By automating the extraction of sustainability metrics from complex English financial documents, FinATG supports emerging markets in meeting international ESG standards, facilitating green finance flows, and enhancing transparency in sustainable business practices, ultimately contributing to their sustainable development goals and climate action commitments. Full article

The integration of renewable energy into power grids is imperative for reducing carbon emissions and mitigating reliance on depleting fossil fuels. In this paper, we develop symmetric and asymmetric evolutionary game-theoretic models to analyze how user–grid cooperation in peak shaving can be enhanced by incorporating whole-process democracy (deliberative governance) into decision-making. Our framework captures excess returns, cooperation-driven profits, energy pricing, participation costs, and benefit-sharing coefficients to identify equilibrium conditions under varied subsidy, cost, and market scenarios. Furthermore, this study integrates the theory, path, and mechanism of deliberative procedures under the perspective of whole-process democracy, exploring how inclusive and participatory decision-making processes can enhance cooperation in renewable energy systems. We simulate seven scenarios that systematically adjust subsidy rates, cost–benefit structures, dynamic pricing, and renewable-versus-conventional competitiveness, revealing that robust cooperation emerges only under well-aligned incentives, equitable profit sharing, and targeted financial policies. These scenarios systematically vary these key parameters to assess the robustness of cooperative equilibria under diverse economic and policy conditions. Our findings indicate that policy efficacy hinges on deliberative stakeholder engagement, fair profit allocation, and adaptive subsidy mechanisms. These results furnish actionable guidelines for regulators and grid operators to foster sustainable, low-carbon energy systems and inform future research on demand response and multi-source integration. Full article

The enforcement of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) may reduce the supply of natural rubber to the European Union (EU), potentially leading to price increases due to the inelastic nature of rubber demand. This study assesses the potential financial implications for smallholder producers in Ghana, considering both the opportunities and risks associated with the evolving regulatory environment under EUDR and local market access conditions. A cost–benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted to evaluate the impact of different EUDR-related export decline scenarios on the net present value (NPV) of a standard 4-hectare plantation. The results suggest that even a minor 2.5% decline in global exports to the EU could increase the NPV by 17% for an independent compliant producer. However, a simulated COVID-19-like crisis in the fifth year of production leads to a 20% decline in NPV, reflecting vulnerability to external shocks. Based on these findings, the study identifies two priorities. This first is improving the coordination and harmonization of compliance efforts across the value chain to enable more producers to benefit from potential EUDR-related price increases. The recent creation of the Association of Natural Rubber Actors of Ghana (ANRAG) presents an opportunity to support such collective mechanisms. Second, minimizing losses during demand shocks requires the Tree Crops Development Authority (TCDA) to establish clear rules and transparent reporting for authorizing unprocessed rubber exports when factories reduce purchases due to low international prices—thus preserving market access for vulnerable producers. Together, these approaches would ensure that the potential benefits of the EUDR are realized inclusively, remain stable despite market downturns, and do not undermine value addition in domestic processing factories. Full article

Energy storage technologies are becoming increasingly important when it comes to maintaining the balance between electricity generation and consumption, especially with the increasing share of variable renewable energy sources (VRES). Pumped storage hydropower plants (PSHs) are currently the largest form of energy storage at the grid level. The aim of this study is to investigate the importance and prospects of using PSHs as part of the energy transition to decarbonize energy sources. A comparison was made between PSHs and battery energy storage systems (BESSs) in terms of technical, economic, and ecological aspects. To identify the key factors influencing the wider adoption of PSHs, a combined approach using SWOT analysis (which assesses strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a decision support tool was applied. Regulatory and market uncertainties (13.54%) and financial inequality (12.77%) rank first and belong to the “Threats” group, with energy storage capacity (10.11%) as the most important factor from the “Strengths” group and increased demand for energy storage (9.01%) as the most important factor from the “Opportunities” group. Forecasts up to 2050 show that the capacity of PSHs must be doubled to enable the integration of 80% of VRES into the grids. The study concludes that PSHs play a key role in the energy transition, especially for long-term energy storage and grid stabilization, while BESSs offer complementary benefits for short-term storage and fast frequency regulation. Recommendations to policymakers include the development of clear, accelerated project approval procedures, financial incentives, and support for hybrid PSH systems to accelerate the energy transition and meet decarbonization targets. Full article

This study investigates the yield-seeking behavior of income-oriented institutional investors, who are essential players in financial markets. While external pressures compelling firms to “reach for yield” are well-documented, the firm-level behavioral drivers underlying this phenomenon remain largely underexplored. Drawing on the behavioral theory of the firm, this study argues that an investor’s performance relative to their social aspiration level (the peer average) influences their yield-seeking decisions, and that this effect is moderated by “portfolio slack,” defined as unrealized gains or losses. To test this theory in the context of persistent low-yield pressure, this study constructs and analyzes a panel dataset of Japanese life insurance companies from 2000 to 2019. The analysis reveals that these investors increase their portfolio income yield after underperforming their peers and decrease it after outperforming. Furthermore, greater portfolio slack amplifies yield increases after underperformance and mitigates yield decreases after outperformance. In contrast, organizational slack primarily mitigates yield reductions after outperformance. This research extends the behavioral theory of the firm to the asset management context by identifying distinct performance feedback responses and proposing portfolio slack as an important analytical construct, thereby offering key insights for investment managers and financial regulators. Full article

The transition to a circular economy is essential for enhancing sustainability and resource efficiency, particularly in forestry-dependent regions. This study examines circular economy business models (CEBMs) in Kouvola, Finland, focusing on the utilization of forestry by-products. It compares two case studies: Keltakangas Waste Station, which processes wood waste into biogas, and Koumet, a forestry company producing biochar. Using a comparative case study approach, this research integrates financial analysis (2020–2023), interviews with managers, and policy reviews to assess economic performance, scalability, and environmental impact. Additionally, this study introduces a generalizable framework—Scalability Path Dependency (SPD)—which theorizes how early strategic decisions shape the long-term growth trajectories of circular business models. The findings reveal that Keltakangas follows a capital-intensive model with declining profit margins, while Koumet operates a resource-efficient model with stable but low profitability. Their scaling strategies diverge: Keltakangas relies on external financing for expansion, whereas Koumet emphasizes cost efficiency and market diversification. Despite ongoing challenges related to infrastructure, regulation, and financial viability, both models contribute meaningfully to circularity. This study offers actionable insights for policymakers and businesses aiming to support sustainable forestry practices. Full article

This study investigated how corporate maturity—measured through firm age and lifecycle stage—moderates the value relevance of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) disclosures in a frontier market context, using Bangladesh as a case study. Drawing on panel data from 2011–2012 to 2023–2024 for 86 publicly listed non-financial firms, the study employed a modified Ohlson valuation framework, panel regression analysis, and multiple robustness techniques (2SLS, PSM). ESG disclosure was measured using a researcher-developed index aligned with international reporting standards (GRI, SASB, TCFD, UN SDGs). ESG disclosures are positively associated with firm value, but this relationship is significantly moderated by corporate maturity. Younger firms exhibit a stronger valuation effect from ESG transparency, driven by higher signaling and legitimacy needs. In contrast, mature firms experience a diminished marginal benefit, reflecting routine compliance rather than strategic differentiation. These findings challenge the uniform application of ESG assessment models and suggest the need for lifecycle-adjusted disclosure ratings, particularly in nascent regulatory environments like Bangladesh. Investors and regulators should tailor ESG evaluation criteria by firm age and industry sustainability exposure. Younger firms, often overlooked, may carry outsized ESG signaling value in emerging markets. Enhancing ESG transparency among younger firms can foster greater stakeholder trust, support inclusive growth, and strengthen social accountability in emerging economies. This study contributes to the ESG literature by introducing corporate maturity as a key moderating variable in value relevance analysis. It provides new empirical insights from a developing economy and proposes lifecycle-based adaptations to global ESG rating methodologies. Full article

In the evolving landscape of China’s capital markets, the integration of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations has become increasingly crucial for investors and decision-makers. Traditional financial performance metrics often fall short in capturing the multidimensional and long-term impacts of ESG factors. This study introduces a novel computational framework that combines domain-adapted pre-trained language models with structured financial regression analysis, aiming to empirically assess the correlation between ESG disclosures and long-term financial performance. This approach allows for the simultaneous processing of both structured and unstructured ESG data, using graph-based modeling and reinforcement learning to guide sustainability aligned policy optimization. Our empirical results show that firms with consistent and well-structured ESG strategies exhibit significantly superior long-term financial outcomes compared to those with weak or inconsistent ESG engagement. This study not only confirms the value of ESG engagement in enhancing financial resilience but also offers practical recommendations for investors, regulators, and corporate decision-makers, emphasizing consistent disclosure, sector-aligned ESG investment, and proactive adaptation to policy shifts. Full article

This paper investigates the spillover effects and transmission networks of systemic risk within China’s national economic sectors under extreme conditions from both time and frequency domain perspectives, building upon the spillover index methodology and calculating the ∆CoVaR index for Chinese industries. The findings indicate the following: (1) Extreme-risk spillovers synchronize across industries but exhibit pronounced time-varying peaks during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the 2015 crash, and the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) Long-term spillovers dominate overall connectedness, highlighting the lasting impact of fundamentals and structural linkages. (3) In terms of risk volatility, Energy, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are most sensitive to systemic market shocks. (4) On the risk spillover effect, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare, and Information Technology consistently act as net transmitters of extreme risk, while Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples, Financials, Telecom Services, Utilities, and Real Estate primarily serve as net receivers. Based on these findings, the paper suggests deepening the regulatory mechanisms for systemic risk, strengthening the synergistic effect of systemic risk measurement and early warning indicators, and coordinating risk monitoring, early warning, and risk prevention and mitigation. It further emphasizes the importance of avoiding fragmented regulation by establishing a joint risk prevention mechanism across sectors and departments, strengthening the supervision of inter-industry capital flows. Finally, it highlights the need to closely monitor the formation mechanisms and transmission paths of new financial risks under the influence of the pandemic to prevent the accumulation and eruption of risks in the post-pandemic era. Authorities must conduct annual “Industry Transmission Reviews” to map emerging risk nodes and supply-chain vulnerabilities, refine policy tools, and stabilize market expectations so as to forestall the build-up and sudden release of new systemic shocks. Full article