Search Results (259)

The present paper reports for the first time the comparison of radar-derived eddy dissipation rate (EDR) and vertical velocity with measurements from six aircraft for an intense squall line crossing Hong Kong. The study objectives are three-fold: (i) to characterise the structural dynamics of the intense squall line; (ii) to identify the dynamical change in EDR and vertical velocity during its eastward propagation across Hong Kong with a view to gaining insight into the intensity change of the squall line and the severity of its impact on aircraft flying near it; (iii) to carry out quantitative comparison of EDR and vertical velocity derived from remote sensing instruments, i.e., weather radars and in situ measurements from aircraft, so that the quality of the former dataset can be evaluated by the latter. During the passage of the squall line and taking reference of the radar reflectivity, vertical circulation and the subsiding flow at the rear, it appeared to be weakening in crossing over Hong Kong, possibly due to land friction by terrain and urban morphology. This is also consistent with the maximum gusts recorded by the dense network of ground-based anemometers in Hong Kong. However, from the EDR and the vertical velocity of the aircraft, the weakening trend was not very apparent, and rather severe turbulence was still recorded by the aircraft flying through the squall line into the region with stratiform precipitation when the latter reached the eastern coast of Hong Kong. In general, the radar-based and the aircraft-based EDRs are consistent with each other. The radar-retrieved maximum vertical velocity may be smaller in magnitude at times, possibly arising from the limited spatial and temporal resolutions of the aircraft data. The results of this paper could be a useful reference for the development of radar-based turbulence products for aviation applications. Full article

Urban and regional ecosystems are increasingly challenged by the compounded effects of climate change and intensive land use. In this study, a predictive assessment framework for ecosystem resilience in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region was developed by integrating multi-source remote sensing data, with the aim of quantitatively evaluating the coupled effects of climate change and land use change on future ecosystem resilience. In the first stage of the study, the SD-PLUS coupled modeling framework was employed to simulate land use patterns for the years 2030 and 2060 under three representative combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Building upon these simulations, ecosystem resilience was comprehensively evaluated and predicted on the basis of three key attributes: resistance, adaptability, and recovery. This enabled a quantitative investigation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystem resilience under each scenario. The results reveal the following: (1) Temporally, ecosystem resilience exhibited a staged pattern of change. From 2020 to 2030, an increasing trend was observed only under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, whereas, from 2030 to 2060, resilience generally increased in all scenarios. (2) In terms of scenario comparison, ecosystem resilience typically followed a gradient pattern of SSP1-2.6 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP5-8.5. However, in 2060, a notable reversal occurred, with the highest resilience recorded under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. (3) Spatially, areas with high ecosystem resilience were primarily distributed in mountainous regions, while the southeastern plains and coastal zones consistently exhibited lower resilience levels. The results indicate that climate and land use changes jointly influence ecosystem resilience. Rainfall and temperature, as key climate drivers, not only affect land use dynamics but also play a crucial role in regulating ecosystem services and ecological processes. Under extreme scenarios such as SSP5-8.5, these factors may trigger nonlinear responses in ecosystem resilience. Meanwhile, land use restructuring further shapes resilience patterns by altering landscape configurations and recovery mechanisms. Our findings highlight the role of climate and land use in reshaping ecological structure, function, and services. This study offers scientific support for assessing and managing regional ecosystem resilience and informs adaptive urban governance in the face of future climate and land use uncertainty, promotes the sustainable development of ecosystems, and expands the applicability of remote sensing in dynamic ecological monitoring and predictive analysis. Full article

The city of Uvira, located in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is increasingly experiencing flood events with devastating impacts on human life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. This study evaluates flood susceptibility in Uvira using Geographic Information Systems (GISs), and an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach. It integrates eight factors contributing to flood occurrence: distance from water bodies, elevation, slope, rainfall intensity, drainage density, soil type, topographic wetness index, and land use/land cover. The results indicate that proximity to water bodies, drainage density and slope are the most influential factors driving flood susceptibility in Uvira. Approximately 87.3% of the city’s land area is classified as having high to very high flood susceptibility, with the most affected zones concentrated along major rivers and the shoreline of Lake Tanganyika. The reliability of the AHP-derived weights is validated by a consistency ratio of 0.008, which falls below the acceptable threshold of 0.1. This research provides valuable insights to support urban planning and inform flood management strategies. Full article

As shared micromobility grows quickly in metropolitan settings, e-scooter safety issues have become more urgent. This paper uses a Bayesian hierarchical model applied to census block groups in several Texas metropolitan areas to construct a spatial risk assessment methodology for e-scooter crashes. Based on crash statistics from 2018 to 2024, we develop a severity-weighted crash risk index and combine it with variables related to land use, transportation, demographics, economics, and other factors. The model comprises a geographically structured random effect based on a Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model, which accounts for residual spatial clustering after capture. It also includes fixed effects for covariates such as car ownership and nightlife density, as well as regional random intercepts to account for city-level heterogeneity. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used for model fitting; evaluation reveals robust spatial calibration and predictive ability. The following key predictors are statistically significant: a higher share of working-age residents shows a positive association with crash frequency (incidence rate ratio (IRR): ≈1.55 per +10% population aged 18–64), as does a greater proportion of car-free households (IRR ≈ 1.20). In the built environment, entertainment-related employment density is strongly linked to elevated risk (IRR ≈ 1.37), and high intersection density similarly increases crash risk (IRR ≈ 1.32). In contrast, higher residential housing density has a protective effect (IRR ≈ 0.78), correlating with fewer crashes. Additionally, a sensitivity study reveals that the risk index is responsive to policy scenarios, including reducing car ownership or increasing employment density, and is sensitive to varying crash intensity weights. Results show notable collision hotspots near entertainment venues and central areas, as well as increased baseline risk in car-oriented urban environments. The results provide practical information for targeted initiatives to lower e-scooter collision risk and safety planning. Full article

This research addresses urban heat island intensification driven by urbanization using Dianchi Lake in Kunming, China, as a case study, aiming to quantitatively evaluate the spatial extent, intensity, and land cover sensitivity differences in the cooling effects of large urban water bodies across dry/wet seasons and complex urban landscapes (forest, cropland, and impervious surfaces) to provide a scientific basis for optimizing thermal environments in low-latitude plateau cities. Based on Landsat 8/9 satellite data from dry (January) and wet (May) seasons in 2020 and 2023 used for land surface temperature (LST) retrieval combined with land use data, buffer zone gradient analysis was adopted to quantify the spatial heterogeneity of key cooling indicators within 0–1500 m lakeshore buffers. The results demonstrated significant seasonal differences. The wet season showed a greater cooling extent (600 m) and higher intensity (6.0–6.6 °C) compared with the dry season (400 m; 2.4–3.9 °C). The land cover responses varied substantially, with cropland having the largest influence (600 m), followed by impervious surfaces (400 m), while forest exhibited a minimal effective cooling range (100 m) but localized warming anomalies at 200–400 m. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that impervious surfaces were the most sensitive to water-cooling, followed by cropland, whereas forest showed the lowest sensitivity. Full article

As China shifts from rapid to high-quality development, urban growth has exhibited allometric patterns. This study evaluated land use efficiency from the perspective of architectural space, focusing on 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2020. A land development intensity index was constructed at both the provincial and municipal levels using the entropy weight method, integrating floor area ratio, building density, and functional mix. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land development intensity and population density were analyzed, and a coordination coupling model was applied to identify mismatches between land and population. The results reveal: (1) Temporally, the imbalance of “more people, less land” in the Yangtze River Delta diminished. Spatially, leading regions exhibit a diffusion effect. Shanghai showed a decline in both population density and development intensity; Zhejiang maintained balanced development; Jiangsu experienced accelerated growth; and Anhui showed signs of catching up. (2) Although the two indicators showed a high coupling degree and strong correlation, the coordination degree remained low, indicating poor quality of correlation. The land-population relationship demonstrated a fluctuating pattern of “strengthening–weakening” over time. Shanghai exhibited the highest coordination, while more than half of the cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui still needed optimization. (3) Unlike previous findings that linked such patterns to shrinking cities, in this transformation stage, the number of cities where land development intensity exceeded population density continued to grow in advanced regions. This study first applied 3D building data at the macro scale to support differentiated spatial policies. Full article

The effects of climate change and urbanisation, such as more intense rainfall and changing land use patterns, are putting increasing pressure on urban drainage systems. This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDSs) in mitigating flooding and managing stormwater in both current and future scenarios. The approach integrates geospatial data, including digital elevation models (DEMs) and land use information, to delineate catchments and characterise hydrological parameters. Historical rainfall records and hydrological modelling were employed to define two baseline storm events: an extreme storm involving 422 mm of rainfall over 2 h, and an average storm involving 2.84 mm of rainfall over 1 h and 18 min. Future scenarios were developed by updating these baseline events using annual rates of change in maximum and average precipitation derived from climate projections between 2025 and 2100. The analysis incorporates seven CMIP6 climate scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-2.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. A stochastic simulation of 1000 storms per year was carried out using a custom-built conceptual hydrological model based on CN and developed in Python, which reflects interannual variability. The results show that extreme storm volumes could increase by up to seven times and average storm volumes by up to two and a half times. Additionally, discharge peaks could exceed baseline values by up to 20% in some years, suggesting an increased occurrence of extreme runoff events. The methodology assesses SUDS performance by comparing runoff and hydrological responses between baseline and future estimates. This framework enables vulnerabilities and adaptation needs to be identified, ensuring the long-term effectiveness of SUDSs in managing urban flood risk. Addressing uncertainties in climate and land use projections emphasises the importance of integrating SUDS assessments into wider urban resilience strategies. Full article

Urban thermal environments, characterized by the interplay between indoor and outdoor conditions, pose growing challenges in high-density coastal cities. This study proposes a multi-scale, integrative framework that couples a satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) analysis with microscale building performance simulations to holistically evaluate the high-density urban thermal environment in subtropical climates. The results reveal that compact, high-density morphologies reduce outdoor heat stress (UTCI) through self-shading but lead to significantly higher cooling loads, energy use intensity (EUI), and poorer daylight autonomy (DA) due to restricted ventilation and limited sky exposure. In contrast, more open, vegetation-rich forms improve ventilation and reduce indoor energy demand, yet exhibit higher UTCI values in exposed areas and increased lighting energy use in poorly oriented spaces. This study also proposes actionable design strategies, including optimal building spacing (≥15 m), façade orientation (30–60° offset from west), SVF regulation (0.4–0.6), and the integration of vertical greenery to balance solar access, ventilation, and shading. These findings offer evidence-based guidance for embedding morphological performance metrics into planning policies and building design codes. This work advances the integration of outdoor and indoor performance evaluation and supports climate-adaptive urban form design through quantitative, policy-relevant insights. Full article

Promoting coordinated urban–rural development represents a key policy initiative by the Chinese government to advance rural revitalization and promote common prosperity. As a central component of China’s land management system, the Urban–Rural Construction Land Linkage Policy aims at dismantling the historical urban–rural division while fostering balanced regional growth. This research analyzes panel data spanning 2010–2022 across 294 prefecture-level cities, utilizing a multi-phase difference-in-differences (DID) approach to evaluate the policy’s effectiveness in reducing urban–rural income disparities. Empirical findings reveal that the policy implementation has substantially narrowed the income gap between urban and rural populations. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy’s impact is more pronounced in China’s eastern regions. Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy narrows the income gap through two primary pathways: first, by promoting urbanization through facilitating rural-to-urban population transfer and optimizing urban spatial layout. Second, by driving industrial structure optimization through intensive land use that advances agricultural scale and modernization, while improved land resource allocation boosts secondary and tertiary industries. These findings offer empirical support and policy insights for refining urban–rural land management strategies and advancing integrated development. Full article

This study investigates urban warming in Rajshahi City, Bangladesh, by examining changes in land surface temperature (LST) from 1990 to 2023 and exploring its relationship with key biophysical factors. LST was derived from Landsat thermal imagery, and both spatial and temporal variations were analyzed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Key biophysical indices, including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), and Normalized Difference Bareness Soil Index (NDBSI), were calculated using corresponding Landsat satellite sensors, and they evaluated the impact of LULC types (vegetation, water, soil, and built-up areas) on thermal variations. LULC was derived following the Support Vector Machine classification technique. The Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) was employed to assess surface urban heat island (SUHI) effects, warming conditions, ecological stress, and thermal comfort zones. Spatial trend and hotspot analyses of LST change were performed using spatial trend analysis and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, respectively. Linear regression analysis examined the relationship between LST and biophysical indices. Results show that winter mean LST increased by 2.66 °C during the 33-year period, with maximum LST rising by 4.29 °C. The most significant warming occurred in central-northern, central-western, and south-eastern zones. The rise in LST and the growing intensity of SUHI effects are largely due to urban growth, especially where green spaces and water bodies have been replaced by impervious surfaces. Hotspot analysis identified clusters of high-temperature zones, while UTFVI analysis confirmed a marked expansion of strong heat island conditions, especially in central urban areas. Linear regression results showed notable links between LST and key biophysical variables, where higher LST values were commonly linked to greater built-up density and declines in vegetation cover and surface water. Overall, the results highlight the need for better urban planning approaches such as increasing green cover, using permeable materials, and adopting strategies that can adapt to climate impacts. This study presents a framework for analyzing urban climate dynamics that can be adapted to other rapidly growing cities, aiding efforts to promote sustainable development and build urban resilience. Full article

This study explores how urban morphological and environmental factors influence Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) using a geospatial modeling approach. The aim of the research is to develop a methodology to assess UHI effects, emphasizing the role of urban morphology, land use, and vegetation in nighttime heat accumulation. A micro-scale analysis with a 50 m resolution is conducted by integrating a custom QGIS plugin with open-access data, ensuring broad applicability. The 50 m resolution was chosen because it allows for the capture of local variations in UHI intensity while maintaining the scalability of the urban analysis across different city contexts. Non-parametric statistical analyses (ANOVA, Kruskal–Wallis H test, and correlation assessments) were used to evaluate the relationships between the urban parameters—wind corridors, altitude, vegetation (NDVI), surface water (NDWI), and the Sky View Factor (SVF)—and Nighttime Land Surface Temperature (LST). Given that UHI variations during summer, particularly in cities of the Iberian Peninsula, are closely linked to summer heat severity, this factor was considered to classify the cities for the study. Correlation analyses confirm that all tested factors influence LST, with wind corridors being the least significant. The model performance evaluation shows the highest errors in cities with lower summer severity (RMSE = 1.586 °C, MAE = 1.2686 °C, MAPE = 6.99%) and the best performance in warmer cities (RMSE = 1.4 °C, MAE = 1.14 °C, MAPE = 4.5%). Validation in four cities of the Iberian Peninsula confirmed the model’s reliability, with the worst RMSE value of 2.04 °C. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the factors driving UHIs and provide a scalable assessment framework. Full article

Urban vegetation plays a pivotal role in mitigating the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect and enhancing ecological resilience amid accelerating global urbanization. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation coverage and its interplay with climatic factors and surface thermal patterns in Perth, Australia, from 2014 to 2023, leveraging multi-source remote sensing data, geostatistical modeling, and spatial analysis. Utilizing Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) datasets, combined with meteorological statistics, the research quantifies vegetation trends, evaluates seasonal and annual climate correlations, and stratifies UHI intensity zones. Key findings reveal the following: (1) Perth’s vegetation cover has decreased over the past decade, and LST has increased, with a negative correlation between the two. (2) NDVI demonstrated a strong negative correlation with annual maximum temperature (r = −0.754) and a positive correlation with precipitation (r = 0.779). (3) Seasonal analysis of NDVI-LST relationships showed intensified cooling effects in summer (r = −0.527) compared to winter (r = −0.180), aligning with evapotranspiration dynamics in Mediterranean climates. (4) Spatial stratification of LST identified “low-temperature green islands” in forested regions, contrasting sharply with high-temperature zones in built-up areas. This study suggests that vegetation optimization—particularly preserving urban forests and integrating green infrastructure—can effectively mitigate UHI impacts, thus reducing surface temperatures. In particular, it shows that urban greenery is a more significant factor towards lowering UHI than urban density. This research advances the understanding of how vegetation optimization can mitigate thermal stress in growing urbanization and provides quantitative evidence for climate-adaptive urban planning. Full article

This study focuses on assessing the physical growth of cities and the land-cover changes resulting from it, which play a crucial role in understanding the environmental impacts and managing phenomena such as the Daytime Urban Surface Heat Island Intensity (DSUHII). Predicting the trends of these changes for the future provides valuable insights for urban planning and mitigating thermal effects in arid environments. This research aims to evaluate the spatial and temporal changes in the intensity of urban surface heat islands in cities under different climatic conditions, resulting from land-cover changes in the past, and to predict future trends. For this purpose, Landsat satellite data products, including Surface Reflectance with a 30-m resolution and Land Surface Temperature (LST) originally at a 100 (120)-meter resolution for Landsat 8 (Landsat 5) (resampled to 30 m for compatibility), along with a database of underlying criteria affecting urban growth, were used to analyze land-cover and LST changes. The land-cover classification was carried out using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm, and its accuracy was assessed. Spatial and temporal changes in LST and land-cover classes were quantified using cross-tabulation models and subtraction operators. Subsequently, the impact of land-cover changes on LST in different climates was analyzed, and the trends of land-cover and DUSHII changes were simulated for the future using the CA–Markov model. The results showed that in the humid climate (Babol and Rasht), built-up areas increased by over 100% from 1990 to 2023 and are projected to grow further by 2055, while green spaces significantly decreased. In the cold–dry climate (Mashhad), urban development increased dramatically, and green spaces nearly halved. In the hot–dry climate (Yazd and Kerman), built-up areas tripled, and the reduction of green spaces will continue. Additionally, in cities with hot and dry climates, a significant area of barren land was converted into built-up areas, and this trend is predicted to continue in the future. DSUHII in Babol increased from 2.5 °C in 1990 to 5.4 °C in 2023 and is projected to rise to 7.8 °C by 2055. In Rasht, this value increased from 2.9 °C to 5.5 °C, and is expected to reach 7.6 °C. In Mashhad, the DSUHII was negative, decreasing from −1.1 °C in 1990 to −1.5 °C in 2023, and is projected to decline to −1.9 °C by 2055. In Yazd, DSUHII also remained negative, decreasing from −2.5 °C in 1990 to −3.3 °C in 2023, with an expected drop to −6.4 °C by 2055. Similarly, in Kerman, the intensity of DSUHII decreased from −2.8 °C to −5.1 °C, and it is expected to reach −7.1 °C by 2055. Overall, the conclusions highlight that in humid climates, DSUHII has significantly increased, while green spaces have decreased. In moderate, cold, and dry climates, a gradual reduction in DSUHII is observed. In the hot–dry climate, the most substantial decrease in DSUHII is evident, indicating the varying impacts of land-cover changes on DSUHII across these regions. Full article

With the acceleration of urbanization and the increased frequency of extreme rainfall events, flooding has emerged as one of the most serious natural disaster problems, particularly affecting riparian cities. This study conducted a flooding risk assessment and an analysis of the driving factors behind flood disasters in the Songhua River Basin utilizing an improved Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) model. First, the model was improved by slope adjustments and effective precipitation coefficient correction, with its performance evaluated using the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Second, flood risk mapping was performed based on the improved model, and the distribution characteristics of the flooding risk were analyzed. Additionally, the Geographical Detector (GD), a spatial statistical method for detecting factor interactions, was employed to explore the influence of natural, economic, and social factors on flooding risk using factor detection and interaction detection methods. The results demonstrated that the improvements to the SCS-CN model encompassed two key aspects: (1) the optimization of the CN value through slope correction, resulting in an optimized CN value of 50.13, and (2) the introduction of a new parameter, the effective precipitation coefficient, calculated based on rainfall intensity and the static infiltration rate, with a value of 0.67. Compared to the original model (NSE = 0.71, rRMSE = 19.96), the improved model exhibited a higher prediction accuracy (NSE = 0.82, rRMSE = 15.88). The flood risk was categorized into five levels based on submersion depth: waterlogged areas, low-risk areas, medium-risk areas, high-risk areas, and extreme-risk areas. In terms of land use, the proportions of high-risk and extreme-risk areas were ranked as follows: water > wetland > cropland > grassland > shrub > forests, with man-made surfaces exacerbating flood risks. Yilan (39.41%) and Fangzheng (31.12%) faced higher flood risks, whereas the A-cheng district (6.4%) and Shuangcheng city (9.4%) had lower flood risks. Factor detection results from the GD revealed that river networks (0.404) were the most significant driver of flooding, followed by the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (0.35) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (0.327). The explanatory power of natural factors was found to be greater than that of economic and social factors. Interaction detection indicated that interactions between factors had a more significant impact on flooding than individual factors alone, with the highest explanatory power for flood risk observed in the interaction between annual precipitation and DEM (q = 0.762). These findings provide critical insights for understanding the spatial drivers of flood disasters and offer valuable references for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Full article

Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use/cover change (LUCC) and landscape ecological risk (LER), and understanding their coupling mechanisms are crucial for sustainable development in ecologically vulnerable areas. This study examines the Wanzhou–Dazhou–Kaizhou (WDK) region from 1980 to 2020, employing intensity analysis, comprehensive index of land use intensity (LUI), and landscape index models to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of LUCC and LER systematically. A coupling research framework based on optimal evaluation scales was constructed to reveal the interactive mechanisms between LUI and LER. The results indicate that over the 40 years, the main land use categories were Crop and Forest. Crop was the primary stable source for the expansion of Built. LUI and LER exhibited a clear geographic gradient, higher in the south and lower in the north, with agricultural and urban areas showing higher risk levels. The coupling coordination degree between LUI and LER was generally moderate, spatially manifesting as a “strong coupling–weak coordination” pattern. Moderately unbalanced areas increased, with environmental improvements observed in some regions. However, typical ecological degradation zones also emerged. This study can provide a basis for environmental management and land use planning in the WDK region. Full article