Search Results (116)

Most previous drought risk assessments have been done on monthly or annual time-scales, which do not directly correspond to crop conditions during wet and dry seasons. To address this limitation, this study introduces a novel framework for seasonal drought risk assessments. The analysis is conducted across multiple temporal periods, including the past (2020s: 2001–2020), near future (2030s: 2021–2040) and far future periods (2050s–2090s: 2041–2100) while considering the combined impacts of land use and climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Multi-drought hazard indices were developed to characterize drought conditions and evaluated for dry seasons (November to April) and wet seasons (May to October). Groundwater storage outflow was incorporated into the analysis to reflect its critical role as an alternative water source. Under RCP8.5 in dry seasons, the results show a decrease in drought risks from very high to high from the 2030s to the 2070s followed by an increase toward the 2090s. Meanwhile, in wet seasons under RCP8.5, the results exhibit an increase from very low to low for the 2030s–2090s. Adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties and improvement of irrigation systems in irrigated areas, as well as adaptive irrigation management in non-irrigated areas, were found to reduce drought damage in the future. Full article

The holm oak (Quercus ilex) is a keystone species in Mediterranean ecosystems due to its ecological relevance and economic value. However, its forests are experiencing increasing decline driven by poor regeneration, prolonged drought, diseases, and wood-boring insect infestations. This study evaluates the impact of Coraebus florentinus on the mechanical properties of holm oak wood. Laboratory bending tests on healthy and insect-damaged branches assessed resistance in relation to applied load, diameter, and length until maximum deflection and breakage. Results showed that C. florentinus damage (considered as a categorical variable, it was not quantified based on the presence or absence of visible symptoms and characteristic larval galleries, and we acknowledge this as a limitation of the study) altered the bending behavior of holm oak branches, mainly by reducing deformation capacity before failure. However, bending strength showed a site-dependent response, indicating that the mechanical effect of infestation may vary according to local branch characteristics and damage distribution. Infestations of C. florentinus in Q. ilex stands, whether used for timber production or pasture systems, may contribute to the loss of photosynthetically active branches and potentially affect tree productivity. Full article

The ripe fruits of blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum L.) are rich in vitamin C, anthocyanins, and flavonoids. Besides being consumed fresh, the fruits can be processed into fruit juices, jams, wines, and other products, exhibiting considerable economic and nutritional value. Flavonoids are a class of important plant secondary metabolites with antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-cancer properties. Although previous studies have confirmed the involvement of multiple structural genes and transcription factors in flavonoid biosynthesis, the specific role of the dihydroflavonol 4-reductase (DFR) gene in regulating flavonoid accumulation during fruit development of blackcurrant remains to be clearly elucidated. In this study, we identified an RnDFR gene located in the nucleus and cytoplasm, which has the same expression trend as flavonoid content in fruit development stages. Overexpression of RnDFR improved the flavonoid accumulation and upregulated the expression levels of related structural genes (4CL, CHS, LDOX, ANR, and UFGT) in tomato. Transiently overexpressing RnDFR in blackcurrant fruit also increased the content of flavonoids and DFR enzyme activity, whereas silencing RnDFR resulted in the opposite effect. In addition, overexpression of RnDFR in tomato seedlings improved cold and drought tolerance by increasing flavonoid accumulation, reducing membrane lipid peroxidation damage and enhancing the activities of antioxidant enzymes. This study systematically reveals the key role of RnDFR in flavonoid biosynthesis and the enhancement of cold and drought tolerance, and offers an important theoretical basis for future efforts to optimize flavonoid content in blackcurrant and improve fruit nutritional quality. Full article

The Moroccan locust (Dociostaurus maroccanus) is one of the most economically significant locust species in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In the past, the Mediterranean region also experienced severe damage to crops and pastures, until widespread grassland conversion to cropland began in the second half of the 20th century. However, climate change, environmental shifts, land-use changes, cropland abandonment, and overgrazing are likely to alter the spatial distribution and outbreak patterns of this pest. Understanding potential changes and geographic shifts is essential for proactive pest management, including effective monitoring and control strategies. In this study, we apply Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) using 12 machine learning algorithms, historical survey data covering the species’ full distribution range, and relevant abiotic variables to identify the most suitable areas for potential mass breeding during 1991–2020 and the near future (2021–2040), based on the “middle-of-the-road” Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2-4.5) scenario. Our results indicate significant regional shifts. Notably, breeding suitability is projected to increase in parts of Greece, Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. In contrast, countries such as Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Spain are likely to experience a decline in optimal breeding areas. The forecast results support field observations of a geographical shift northward and toward higher altitudes. Additionally, higher temperatures in suitable areas suggest more drought-like conditions, which typically promote locust population explosions and outbreaks. If left unaddressed, such outbreaks can cause severe economic damage to affected regions. Full article

Drought stress is a significant environmental factor affecting plant growth, fruit quality and distribution. Wild jujube is an important species of eco-economic forest tree. In this study, two wild jujube families, ‘NO. 1’ (tolerant) and ‘NO. 5’ (sensitive), which show significant differences in morphological and physiological indicators in drought treatment, are considered. Compared with the ‘NO. 5’, the ‘NO. 1’ exhibited lower water loss, leaf yellowing and abscission rates, as well as reduced malondialdehyde (MDA) content, while showing higher superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity and elevated levels of soluble sugars (SS), soluble proteins (SP), and proline (Pro). In contrast, the ‘NO. 5’ suffered more severe damage to leaf epidermal cells compared with the ‘NO. 1’, accompanied by a significant decline in net photosynthetic rate (A) and instantaneous water use efficiency (WUEi). Transcriptomic profiles between two wild jujube families with markedly different drought responses (withholding water for 15 days) are shown. The two wild jujube families included 3238 up-regulated and 2675 down-regulated differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Many DEGs enriched in the GO and KEGG pathways are related to antioxidant activity, transmembrane transport, carbohydrate biosynthesis and metabolism, plant hormones, and photosynthesis. The biosynthesis of amino acids, the MAPK signaling pathway, plant hormone signal transduction, and flavonoid and alkaloid biosynthesis were the transcriptome modifications most significantly altered by drought stress. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) was used to verify the precision of the RNA-seq data. ZjJIP23-1, ZjbZIP53, ZjSPS8, ZjCAO, ZjADH1 and ZjERF39 may play important roles in the drought tolerance of the wild jujube. This study provides a solid foundation for further studies on the complex mechanisms and breeding of drought-resistant plants in wild jujube. Full article

The first global goal of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda (SDG 1) calls for addressing poverty as a condition produced through social vulnerability and environmental risk. This paper examines the relationship between vulnerability and poverty during concurrent drought and pandemic hazards in 2021 in the American Southwest, a context less studied in sustainability research. Drawing on disaster scholarship, we conceptualize the risk of poverty as the interaction of hazard exposure and social vulnerability. We construct a county-level dataset integrating environmental, epidemiological, and social indicators across Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, identifying income inequality and residential segregation as key dimensions of vulnerability. Using child poverty as a measurement lens, we apply spatial mapping alongside Relative and Attributable Risk metrics to assess how drought intensity, pandemic burden, and structural vulnerability contributed to spatially uneven poverty outcomes under dual hazards. Results indicate that drought had a stronger effect than COVID-19, yet pre-existing vulnerabilities were more consequential, with income inequality outweighing segregation, suggesting that hazards are most damaging where social inequalities limit resilience. Interpreting the results through the Capability Approach, we posit that sustainable poverty reduction requires not just income support and hazard mitigation, but expansion of instrumental economic, social, and political freedoms that enhance individuals’ capabilities to navigate risk and pursue long-term well-being. Full article

As global warming intensifies, extreme weather phenomena such as heatwaves, flash droughts, torrential floods, cold waves, and blizzards are becoming increasingly frequent. Against this backdrop, traditional static food security assessment methods fail to capture the dynamic transmission patterns of agricultural productivity risks and their regional heterogeneity. Therefore, it is imperative to reconstruct a resilience analysis paradigm for food production systems, dynamically investigate the mechanisms through which climate change affects China’s agricultural productivity and discern the interactive effects between technological evolution and climate constraints. This will provide theoretical foundations for building a climate-resilient food security system. Accordingly, this study establishes a multidimensional resilience measurement index system for China’s grain productivity by integrating agricultural factor elasticity analysis with disaster impact response modeling. Through production function decomposition and hybrid forecasting models, we reveal the evolutionary patterns of China’s grain productivity under climate risk shocks and trace the transmission pathways of risk fluctuations. Key findings indicate the following: (1) Extreme climate events exhibit significant negative correlations with grain production, with drought and flood impacts demonstrating pronounced regional heterogeneity. (2) A dynamic game relationship exists between agricultural technological progress and climate risk constraints, where the marginal contribution of resource efficiency improvements to productivity growth shows diminishing returns. (3) Climate-sensitive factors vary substantially across agricultural zones: Northeast China faces dominant cold damage, North China experiences drought stress, while South China contends with humid-heat disasters as primary regional risks. Consequently, strengthening foundational agricultural infrastructure and optimizing regionally differentiated risk mitigation strategies constitute critical pathways for enhancing food security resilience. (4) Future research should leverage higher-resolution, county-level data and incorporate a wider range of socio-economic variables to enhance granular understanding and predictive accuracy. Full article

The operation of modern power networks is increasingly exposed to overlapping climate extremes and volatile system conditions, making it essential to adopt scheduling approaches that are resilient as well as economical. In this study, a two-stage stochastic formulation is advanced, where indicators of system adaptability are embedded directly into the optimization process. The objective integrates standard operating expenses—generation, reserve allocation, imports, responsive demand, and fuel resources—with a Conditional Value-at-Risk component that reflects exposure to rare but damaging contingencies, such as extreme heat, severe cold, drought-related hydro scarcity, solar output suppression from wildfire smoke, and supply chain interruptions. Key adaptability dimensions, including storage cycling depth, activation speed of demand response, and resource ramping behavior, are modeled through nonlinear operational constraints. A stylized test system of 30 interconnected areas with a 46 GW demand peak is employed, with more than 2000 climate-informed scenarios compressed to 240 using distribution-preserving reduction techniques. The results indicate that incorporating risk-sensitive policies reduces expected unserved demand by more than 80% during compound disruptions, while the increase in cost remains within 12–15% of baseline planning. Pronounced spatiotemporal differences emerge: evening reserve margins fall below 6% without adaptability provisions, yet risk-adjusted scheduling sustains 10–12% margins. Transmission utilization curves further show that CVaR-based dispatch prevents extreme flows, though modest renewable curtailment arises in outer zones. Moreover, adaptability provisions promote shallower storage cycles, maintain an emergency reserve of 2–3 GWh, and accelerate the mobilization of demand-side response by over 25 min in high-stress cases. These findings confirm that combining stochastic uncertainty modeling with explicit adaptability metrics yields measurable gains in reliability, providing a structured direction for resilient system design under escalating multi-hazard risks. Full article

The impacts of climate change are globally evident and cause significant damage to ecosystems and human activities. These impacts intensify social and economic inequality in Southern Africa (SA), where agriculture is vital for livelihoods and economic development. This study aimed to assess long-term trends in climate elements and parameters relevant to drought regimes in SA to identify drought hotspots and relate them to socioeconomic indicators. The methods include the Theil–Sen slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall statistical significance test. The study analysed ERA5 data for the 1971–2020 to compute the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought indices and descriptors. Results of the trend analysis reveal (i) the existence in almost the entire SA of statistically significant trends of increasing temperature and potential evapotranspiration and decreasing precipitation; (ii) increasing drought risk hotspots in the SPI and SPEI across all timescales, in the north central rainforest region, south and southeast of SA, while decreasing in the northwest coast, central west region, and in the northeast more recently; and (iii) hotspots in the drought descriptors within the same regions, but of a smaller size. Our findings pinpoint drought hotspots in regions with moderate-to-high population density and agricultural systems that involve species vital for food security and of considerable socioeconomic and commercial importance, emphasising the significance of our results for managers and decision-makers. Full article

Disaster headlines often underscore devastation and loss while overlooking success stories where proactive disaster risk reduction (DRRM) measures have averted catastrophe, saved lives, and reduced economic damage. This study addresses the gap in documentation and analysis of DRRM success stories in Africa, particularly within the Southern African Development Community (SADC), arguing that the absence of such narratives hampers a shift from reactive to proactive disaster risk governance. The research aims to extract critical lessons from success stories for enhancing future preparedness and response frameworks. A qualitative research design was employed, integrating document analysis, expert interviews, field observations, and practitioner workshops. Data was triangulated from diverse sources, including national disaster management agency reports (e.g., South Africa’s NDMC, Botswana’s NDMO, Mozambique’s INGC), peer-reviewed literature, UNDRR reports, SADC policy documents, and first-hand experiences from the authors’ consultancy work in the African Union’s biennial DRRM reporting processes. Case studies examined include Mozambique’s response to Cyclone Idai in 2019, South Africa’s drought and flood risk governance (e.g., the 2023 floods in Eastern and Western Cape), and Malawi’s flood resilience programs. Findings reveal that successful DRRM outcomes are driven by a combination of anticipatory governance, community-based preparedness, integration of Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKSs), and investment in infrastructure and ecosystem-based adaptation. These cases demonstrate that locally embedded, yet scientifically informed, interventions enhance resilience and reduce disaster impacts. The study underscores the relevance of theoretical frameworks such as resilience theory, narrative theory, and social learning in interpreting how success stories contribute to institutional memory and adaptive capacity. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for institutionalizing success-story documentation in national DRRM frameworks, scaling up community engagement in risk governance, and fostering regional knowledge-sharing platforms within the SADC. Furthermore, the paper advocates for making DRRM success stories more visible and actionable to transition toward more anticipatory, inclusive, and effective disaster risk management systems. Full article

This study examines the effects of the extreme drought and heatwaves that occurred in Romania during the summer of 2024 on the microbiological and mycotoxicological quality of wheat (Triticum aestivum) stored until April 2025, as well as on the quality of wholemeal flour and bread derived from it. Comparative analyses were conducted against the contamination in wheat harvested in 2024. The hot and dry conditions significantly influenced the microbial and mycotoxicological contamination of both freshly harvested and stored wheat, as well as the derived flour and bread, due to their notably reduced moisture content and water activity. Although levels of total fungi, Fusarium-damaged kernels, and mycotoxins deoxynivalenol, aflatoxin B1, and ochratoxin A remained well below regulatory thresholds, higher contamination was observed in Transylvania and Moldavia—particularly in the Curvature Carpathians, likely due to their cooler and wetter microclimates. The observed quality changes were strongly associated with alterations in physico-chemical, rheological, and colorimetric parameters, posing potential economic challenges for the milling and baking industries. The study recommends implementing integrated regional strategies to enhance wheat resilience, optimize production systems, and improve contamination control in response to increasing climate stress across Southeastern Europe. Full article

Vegetable cultivation plays an essential role in the agricultural economy. However, amid increasingly pressing economic and climatic factors that significantly influence the sustainability of this sector, vegetable production in Romania has a downward trend. Similarly to other field crops, open-field tomato production is exposed to climate risks, such as extreme temperatures and drought, factors that have significantly impacted Romanian agriculture during the 2024–2025 period. This study aims to analyze the risk exposure of tomato cultivation under unfavorable climatic conditions and to emphasize the importance of financial support in protecting farmers’ incomes. By using a detailed income and expenditure budget, the study evaluates the financial vulnerability of the production process and analyzes the effects of crop losses on farm profitability. The results indicate substantial income losses for farmers in the event of crop damage, with estimated losses of 5280 EUR/ha for a 30% damage level and 10,912 EUR/ha for 50% damage. These findings highlight the importance of financial support provided through national public policies (SP PAC 2023–2027), along with the proposal of crop insurance as an effective tool for risk management and financial protection of farmers. This measure could contribute to mitigating the economic impact on farmers affected by climatic factors. Full article

As a key economic tree in southern China, Camellia oleifera faces severe yield losses under drought. Grafting onto drought-tolerant rootstocks offers a potential mitigation strategy. To elucidate the impact of rootstocks on the drought resistance of the superior Camellia oleifera Abel. cultivar “Xianglin 210”, grafted seedlings with five scion–rootstock combinations, were subjected to gradient drought stress. Key physiological and biochemical indices related to photosynthesis, antioxidant enzymes, and osmotic adjustment were measured. Drought resistance was comprehensively evaluated using membership function analysis, and the expression of stress-responsive genes was quantified via quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR). The results demonstrated that under drought stress, (1) stomatal conductance (Gs) decreased by 31.2–48.7%, while instantaneous water use efficiency (WUE) increased by 18.5–35.4%; (2) proline (Pro) and soluble sugars (SS) accumulated significantly, with increases of 2.3–4.1-fold and 1.8–3.2-fold, respectively; (3) activities of antioxidant enzymes were enhanced by 56–127%, mitigating oxidative damage; (4) membership function analysis ranked drought resistance as follows: Xianglin 27 (0.812) > Guangxi Superior Germplasm (0.698) > C. yuhsienensis (0.654) > Hunan Superior Germplasm (0.591) > Xianglin 1 (0.523); (5) qRT-PCR revealed significant upregulation of ABA signaling pathway genes (CoPYL6, CoPP2C75/51/24/26, CoSnRK2.8, and CoABI5) and transcription factors (CoLHY and CoWRKY70), indicating activation of drought-responsive regulatory networks. These findings provide a theoretical foundation for selecting drought-tolerant rootstocks and optimizing cultivation practices in Camellia oleifera, and provide practical criteria for selecting drought-tolerant rootstocks, facilitating sustainable Camellia oleifera cultivation in water-limited regions. Full article

Acacia mearnsii De Wild. has been introduced to over 150 countries for its economic value. However, it easily escapes from plantations and establishes monospecific stands across plains, hills, valleys, and riparian habitats, including protected areas such as national parks and forest reserves. Due to its negative ecological impact, A. mearnsii has been listed among the world’s 100 worst invasive alien species. This species exhibits rapid stem growth in its sapling stage and reaches reproductive maturity early. It produces a large quantity of long-lived seeds, establishing a substantial seed bank. A. mearnsii can grow in different environmental conditions and tolerates various adverse conditions, such as low temperatures and drought. Its invasive populations are unlikely to be seriously damaged by herbivores and pathogens. Additionally, A. mearnsii exhibits allelopathic activity, though its ecological significance remains unclear. These characteristics of A. mearnsii may contribute to its expansion in introduced ranges. The presence of A. mearnsii affects abiotic processes in ecosystems by reducing water availability, increasing the risk of soil erosion and flooding, altering soil chemical composition, and obstructing solar light irradiation. The invasion negatively affects biotic processes as well, reducing the diversity and abundance of native plants and arthropods, including protective species. Eradicating invasive populations of A. mearnsii requires an integrated, long-term management approach based on an understanding of its invasive mechanisms. Early detection of invasive populations and the promotion of public awareness about their impact are also important. More attention must be given to its invasive traits because it easily escapes from cultivation. Full article

Arundo donax L. has been introduced in markets worldwide due to its economic value. However, it is listed in the world’s 100 worst alien invasive species because it easily escapes from cultivation, and forms dense monospecific stands in riparian areas, agricultural areas, and grassland areas along roadsides, including in protected areas. This species grows rapidly and produces large amounts of biomass due to its high photosynthetic ability. It spreads asexually through ramets, in addition to stem and rhizome fragments. Wildfires, flooding, and human activity promote its distribution and domination. It can adapt to various habitats and tolerate various adverse environmental conditions, such as cold temperatures, drought, flooding, and high salinity. A. donax exhibits defense mechanisms against biotic stressors, including herbivores and pathogens. It produces indole alkaloids, such as bufotenidine and gramine, as well as other alkaloids that are toxic to herbivorous mammals, insects, parasitic nematodes, and pathogenic fungi and oomycetes. A. donax accumulates high concentrations of phytoliths, which also protect against pathogen infection and herbivory. Only a few herbivores and pathogens have been reported to significantly damage A. donax growth and populations. Additionally, A. donax exhibits allelopathic activity against competing plant species, though the allelochemicals involved have yet to be identified. These characteristics may contribute to its infestation, survival, and population expansion in new habitats as an invasive plant species. Dense monospecific stands of A. donax alter ecosystem structures and functions. These stands impact abiotic processes in ecosystems by reducing water availability, and increasing the risk of erosion, flooding, and intense fires. The stands also negatively affect biotic processes by reducing plant diversity and richness, as well as the fitness of habitats for invertebrates and vertebrates. Eradicating A. donax from a habitat requires an ongoing, long-term integrated management approach based on an understanding of its invasive mechanisms. Human activity has also contributed to the spread of A. donax populations. There is an urgent need to address its invasive traits. This is the first review focusing on the invasive mechanisms of this plant in terms of adaptation to abiotic and biotic stressors, particularly physiological adaptation. Full article