Search Results (71)

This study presents a process-informed framework for assessing the differential credibility of diverse downscaling methodologies, including both statistical (simple and complex) and dynamical approaches. The methods evaluated include a convolutional neural network (CNN), the Locally Constructed Analog Method (LOCA), the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM), quantile delta mapping (QDM), simple interpolation with bias correction, and two regional climate models. As proof of concept, we apply the framework to evaluate the physical consistency of processes associated with wet-day occurrence at a site in the southern USA Great Plains. Additionally, we introduce a relative credibility metric that quantifies cross-method performance and outlines how this framework can be extended to other variables, regions, and downscaling applications. Results show that all downscaling methods perform credibly when the parent global climate model (GCM) performs credibly. However, complex statistical methods (CNN, LOCA, SDSM) tend to exacerbate GCM errors, while simpler methods (QDM, interpolation + bias correction) generally preserve GCM credibility. Dynamical downscaling, by contrast, can mitigate inherited biases and improve overall process-level credibility. These findings underscore the importance of process-based evaluation in downscaling assessments and reveal how downscaling model complexity interacts with GCM quality. Full article

In the context of the “Dual Carbon” goals, accurately predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of urban Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is crucial for resilient urban planning. While recent studies have coupled land use models with ecosystem models to project NPP dynamics, they often face challenges in acquiring high-resolution future vegetation parameters and typically overlook the stability of NPP under changing climates. To address these gaps, this study focuses on Nanjing and develops a long-term, multi-scenario analysis framework based on the Dynamic Land Cover–Climate Model (DLCC–NPP). This framework innovatively integrates the PLUS model with a Random Forest (RF) algorithm. By establishing a direct statistical mapping between macro-climate/micro-land cover and NPP, the RF model functions as a statistical downscaling tool. This approach bypasses the uncertainty accumulation associated with simulating future vegetation indices, enabling precise spatiotemporal NPP prediction at a 30 m resolution. Using this approach, we systematically analyzed the NPP dynamics from 2004 to 2044 under three SSP scenarios. The results revealed that Nanjing’s NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with urban forests contributing the highest productivity (mean NPP ~266.15 gC/m²). Crucially, the volatility analysis highlighted divergent response characteristics: forests demonstrated the highest stability and “buffering effect,” whereas grasslands and croplands showed high volatility and sensitivity to climate fluctuations. Spatially, a distinct “stable high-NPP core, decreasing periphery” pattern was identified, driven by the interaction of urban expansion and ecological conservation policies. In conclusion, the DLCC–NPP framework effectively overcomes the data scarcity bottleneck in future simulations and characterizes the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of vegetation carbon fixation in urban ecosystems, providing scientific support for optimizing green space patterns and enhancing urban ecological resilience in high-density cities. Full article

Under the ongoing trend of climate warming and increasing humidity on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the Three River Source Region (TRSR) has shown strong sensitivity to global climate change. Its vegetation change is particularly worthy of attention and research. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a key indicator for assessing the growth status of vegetation. However, the insufficiency of existing NDVI datasets in terms of spatiotemporal continuity has limited the accuracy of long-term vegetation change studies. This study proposed a machine learning-based downscaling framework that integrates the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) NDVI data to reconstruct a long-term, high-resolution NDVI dataset. Unlike conventional statistical fusion approaches, the proposed framework employs machine learning-based nonlinear relationships to generate long-term, high-resolution NDVI data. Three machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), LightGBM, and CatBoost—were evaluated. Their performance was validated using the MODIS NDVI as reference, with the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) as evaluation metrics. Based on model comparison, the CatBoost model was identified as the optimal algorithm for spatiotemporal data fusion (R² = 0.9014, RMSE = 0.0674, MAE = 0.0445), significantly outperforming RF and LightGBM models and demonstrating stronger capability for NDVI spatiotemporal reconstruction. Using this model, a long-term, 1 km monthly GIMMS-MODIS NDVI dataset from 1982 to 2014 was successfully reconstructed. On the basis of this dataset, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of vegetation in the TRSR from 1982 to 2014 were systematically analyzed. The research results show that: (1) The constructed long-series high-resolution NDVI dataset has a high consistency with MODIS NDVI data; (2) From 1982 to 2014, the NDVI in the TRSR showed an increasing trend, with an average growth rate of 0.0020/10a (p < 0.05). NDVI showed obvious spatial heterogeneity, characterized by a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest. (3) The Yellow River source exhibited the most evident vegetation recovery, the Yangtze River Source area showed a moderate improvement, whereas the Lancang River Source area displayed little noticeable change. (4) Broad-leaved forests experienced the most significant growth, while cultivated vegetation displayed a marked tendency toward degradation. This study provides both a high-accuracy long-term NDVI product for the TRSR and a methodological foundation for advancing vegetation dynamics research in other high-altitude regions. Full article

Groundwater depletion is among the most critical hydrological threats to sustainable agriculture and water security in semi-arid regions. This study presents a high-resolution, multi-sensor assessment of groundwater storage (GWS) dynamics across the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) command area in Punjab, Pakistan—an intensively irrigated agro-hydrological system within the Indus Basin. We integrated downscaled GRACE/GRACE-FO-derived total water storage anomalies with CHIRPS precipitation, MODIS evapotranspiration (ET) and vegetation indices, TerraClimate soil moisture, land surface temperature (LST), land use/land cover (LULC), and population density using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to reconstruct spatiotemporal GWS changes from 2002 to 2020. The results reveal a persistent and accelerating decline in groundwater levels, averaging 0.52 m yr⁻¹, which intensified to 0.73 m yr⁻¹ after 2014. Cumulative GWS losses exceeded 320 mm yr⁻¹, with severe depletion (up to −3800 mm) in northern districts such as Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, and Narowal. Validation with borewell data (R² = 0.87; NSE = 0.85) confirms the reliability of the remote sensing estimates. Statistical analysis indicates that anthropogenic drivers (population growth, urban expansion, and intensive irrigation) explain over two-thirds of the observed variability (R² = 0.67), whereas precipitation contributes only marginally (R² = 0.28), underscoring the dominance of human-induced stress over climatic variability. The synergistic rise in evapotranspiration, land surface temperature, and cultivation of high-water-demand crops such as rice and sugarcane has further amplified hydrological imbalance. This study establishes an operational framework for integrating satellite and ground-based observations to monitor aquifer stress at basin scale and highlights the urgent need for adaptive, data-driven groundwater governance in the Indus Basin. The approach is transferable to other data-scarce semi-arid regions facing rapid aquifer depletion, aligning with the global targets of Sustainable Development Goal 6 on water sustainability. Full article

Understanding and quantifying the coupled effects of land cover change and climate change on hydrological regimes is critical for sustainable water management in tropical mountainous regions. The Río Negro Basin in eastern Antioquia, Colombia, has undergone rapid urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and deforestation over recent decades, profoundly altering its hydrological dynamics. This study integrates advanced satellite image processing, AI-based land cover modeling, climate change projections, and distributed hydrological simulation to assess future streamflow responses. Multi-sensor satellite data (Landsat, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, ALOS) were processed using Random Forest classifiers, intelligent multisensor fusion, and probabilistic neural networks to generate high-resolution land cover maps and scenarios for 2060 (optimistic, trend, and pessimistic), with strict area constraints for urban growth and forest conservation. Future precipitation was derived from MPI-ESM CMIP6 outputs (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) and statistically downscaled using Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) to match the basin scale and precipitation records from the national hydrometeorological service of the Colombia IDEAM (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales, Colombia). The TETIS hydrological model was calibrated and validated using observed streamflow records (1998–2023) and subsequently used to simulate hydrological responses under combined land cover and climate scenarios. Results indicate that urban expansion and forest loss significantly increase peak flows (Q90, Q95) and flood risk while decreasing baseflows (Q10, Q30), compromising water availability during dry seasons. Conversely, conservation-oriented scenarios mitigate these effects by enhancing flow regulation and groundwater recharge. The findings highlight that targeted land management can partially offset the negative impacts of climate change, underscoring the importance of integrated land–water planning in the Andes. This work provides a replicable framework for modeling hydrological futures in data-scarce mountainous basins, offering actionable insights for regional authorities, environmental agencies, and national institutions responsible for water security and disaster risk management. Full article

Spatializing crop yield statistical data with administrative divisions as the basic unit helps reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of crop yield and provides necessary spatial information to support field management and government decision-making. However, owing to an insufficient understanding of the factors affecting yield, accurately depicting its spatial differences remains challenging. Taking Hailun city, Heilongjiang Province, as an example, this study proposes a yield downscaling method based on the standardized deviation from the mean of the comprehensive crop condition index (CCCI) during key phenological periods of the growing season. First, Sentinel-2 remote sensing data were used to retrieve crop condition parameters during key phenological periods, and the CCCI was constructed using the correlation between crop condition parameters in key phenological periods and statistical yield as the weight. Subsequently, regression analysis and the entropy weight method were applied to determine the spatiotemporal dynamic weights of the CCCI during key phenological stages and to calculate the standardized deviation from the mean. By combining these two components, the comprehensive spatial difference index of the crop growth condition (CSDICGC) was derived, which offered a new way to characterize the discrepancies between the pixel-level yield and statistical yield, thereby downscaling the yield statistical data from the administrative unit to the pixel scale. The results indicated that this method achieved a regional accuracy close to 100%, with a strong fit at the pixel scale. Pixel-level accuracy validation against ground-truth maize yield data resulted in an R² of 0.82 and a mean relative error (MRE) of 4.75%. The novelty of this study was characterized by the integration of multistage crop condition parameters with dynamic spatiotemporal weighting to overcome the limitations of single-index methods. The crop yield statistical data downscaling spatialization method proposed in this paper is simple and efficient and has the potential to be popularized and applied over relatively large regions. Full article

Leveraging multi-source remote sensing datasets and dynamic groundwater monitoring well observations, this study explores the multiscale spatiotemporal linkages of groundwater storage changes and land deformation in North China Plain (NCP) after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). Firstly, we employed Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technology to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) and land deformation. Secondly and significantly, we proposed a novel GRACE statistical downscaling algorithm that integrates a weight allocation strategy and GWS estimation applied with InSAR technology. Finally, the downscaled results were employed to analyze spatial differences in land deformation across typical ground fissure areas. The results indicate that (1) between 2018 and 2021, groundwater storage in the NCP exhibited a declining trend, with an average reduction of −3.81 ± 0.53 km³/a and a maximum land deformation rate of −177 mm/a; (2) the downscaled groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) showed high correlation with in situ measurements (R = 0.75, RMSE = 2.91 cm); and (3) in the Shunyi fissure area, groundwater storage on the northern side increased continuously, with a maximum growth rate of 28 mm/a, resulting in surface uplift exceeding 70 mm. Full article

Quantifying future changes in extreme events and associated flooding is challenging yet fundamental for stormwater managers. Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) is frequently exposed to catastrophic floods from extreme rainfall that is typically associated with tropical cyclones. This study presents a novel approach that uses rainfall data from five dynamically and statistically downscaled (DD and SD) global climate models under two scenarios to visualize a potential future extent of flooding in ENC. Here, we use DD data (at 36-km grid spacing) to compute future changes in precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (PIDF) curves at the end of the 21st century. These PIDF curves are further applied to observed rainfall from Hurricane Matthew—a landfalling storm that created widespread flooding across ENC in 2016—to project versions of “Matthew 2100” that reflect changes in extreme precipitation under those scenarios. Each Matthew-2100 rainfall distribution was then used in hydrologic models (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) to simulate “2100” discharges and flooding extents in the Neuse River Basin (4686 km²) in ENC. The results show that DD datasets better represented historical changes in extreme rainfall than SD datasets. The projected changes in ENC rainfall (up to 112%) exceed values published for the U.S. but do not exceed historical values. The peak discharges for Matthew-2100 could increase by 23–69%, with 0.4–3 m increases in water surface elevation and 8–57% increases in flooded area. The projected increases in flooding would threaten people, ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and the economy throughout ENC. Full article

The current changing climate requires the development of water–energy–food (WEF) nexus-oriented systems capable of mainstreaming climate-smart innovations into resource management. This study demonstrates the cross-sectoral impacts of climate change on interlinked sectors of water, energy, and food in Narok County, Kenya, and Vhembe District, South Africa. This study used projected hydroclimatic extremes across past, present, and future scenarios to examine potential effects on the availability and accessibility of these essential resources. The projected temperature and rainfall are based on nine dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) of the Global Climate Models (GCMs). The model outputs were derived from two IPCC “Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)’’, the RCP 4.5 “moderate scenario”, and RCP 8.5 “business as usual scenario”, also defined as the addition of 4.5 W/m² and 8.5 W/m² radiative forcing in the atmosphere, respectively, by the year 2100. For the climate change projections, outputs from the historical period (1976–2005) and projected time intervals spanning the near future, defined as the period starting from 2036 to 2065, and the far future, spanning from 2066 to 2095, were considered. An ensemble model to increase the skill, reliability, and consistency of output was formulated from the nine models. The statistical bias correction based on quantile mapping using seven ground-based observation data from the South African Weather Services (SAWS) for Limpopo province and nine ground-based observation data acquired from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) for Narok were used to correct the systematic biases. Results indicate downscaled climate change scenarios and integrate a modelling framework designed to depict the perceptions of future climate change impacts on communities based on questionnaires and first-hand accounts. Furthermore, the analysis points to concerted efforts of multi-stakeholder engagement, the access and use of technology, understanding the changing business environment, integrated government and private sector partnerships, and the co-development of community resilience options, including climate change adaptation and mitigation in the changing climate. The conceptual climate and WEF resource modelling framework confirmed that future climate change will have noticeable interlinked impacts on WEF resources that will impact the livelihoods of vulnerable communities. Building the resilience of communities can be achieved through transformative WEF nexus solutions that are inclusive, sustainable, equitable, and balance adaptation and mitigation goals to ensure a just and sustainable future for all. Full article

Many Caribbean low-latitude small island states lack wind maps tailored to capture their wind features at high resolutions. However, high-resolution mesoscale modeling is computationally expensive. This study proposes a statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) method that integrates an atmospheric-circulation-type (CT) approach with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to map the wind resources of a case study, Trinidad and Tobago. The SDD method uses a novel wind class generation technique derived directly from reanalysis wind field patterns. For the Caribbean, 82 wind classes were defined from an atmospheric circulation catalog of seven types derived from 850 hPa daily wind fields from the NCEP-DOE reanalysis over 32 years. Each wind class was downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and weighted by frequency to produce 1 km × 1 km climatological wind maps. The 10 m wind maps, validated using measured wind data at Piarco and Crown Point, exhibit a small positive average bias (+0.5 m/s in wind speed and +11 W m⁻² in wind power density (WPD)) and capture the shape of the wind speed distributions and a significant proportion of the interannual variability. The 80 m wind map indicates from good to moderate wind resources, suitable for determining priority areas for a detailed wind measurement program in Trinidad and Tobago. The proposed SDD methodology is applicable to other regions worldwide beyond low-latitude tropical islands. Full article

In the presented work, design conditions for breakwaters were derived from offshore climate reanalysis data (ERA5), which were downscaled to the nearshore by two numerical approaches, i.e., SwanOne and Delft3D, for different average and extreme wave and weather conditions. Model validation was performed using in situ measurements. The advantages and disadvantages of both numerical approaches were investigated. Both models showed sufficient accuracy according to measurements in the field, where SwanOne offers a simple and fast calculation method, while Delft3D provides a more complete representation, not only of waves but also current dynamics. However, it requires a much broader amount of input parameters and more complex boundary conditions. Then, SwanOne was applicable to calculate nearshore wave characteristics based on the input parameters extracted from the statistical analysis of long-term ERA5 data. Based on this process, design wave heights and periods at the nearshore were determined for 10- to 100-year return periods. For breakwater design on the west coast of the Mekong Delta, maximum wave heights in a range of 1.1 m to 1.3 m at a distance of 100 m to 300 m could be determined for a return period of 20 years, corresponding to water depths of 2.33 m and 2.88 m, respectively. Full article

In this research, we introduce a novel method leveraging the Transformer architecture to generate high-fidelity precipitation model outputs. This technique emulates the statistical characteristics of high-resolution datasets while substantially lowering computational expenses. The core concept involves utilizing a blend of coarse and fine-grained simulated precipitation data, encompassing diverse spatial resolutions and geospatial distributions, to instruct Transformer in the transformation process. We have crafted an innovative ST-Transformer encoder component that dynamically concentrates on various regions, allocating heightened focus to critical spatial zones or sectors. The module is capable of studying dependencies between different locations in the input sequence and modeling at different scales, which allows it to fully capture spatiotemporal correlations in meteorological element data, which is also not available in other downscaling methods. This tailored module is instrumental in enhancing the model’s ability to generate outcomes that are not only more realistic but also more consistent with physical laws. It adeptly mirrors the temporal and spatial distribution in precipitation data and adeptly represents extreme weather events, such as heavy and enduring storms. The efficacy and superiority of our proposed approach are substantiated through a comparative analysis with several cutting-edge forecasting techniques. This evaluation is conducted on two distinct datasets, each derived from simulations run by regional climate models over a period of 4 months. The datasets vary in their spatial resolutions, with one featuring a 50 km resolution and the other a 12 km resolution, both sourced from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Full article

The hydrological cycle is altered by climate change and human activities, amplifying extreme precipitation and heightening the flood risk regionally and globally. It is imperative to explore the future possible alterations in flood risk at the regional scale. Focusing on the Hanjiang river basin (HRB), this study develops a framework for establishing a scientific assessment of spatio-temporal dynamics of future flood risks under multiple future scenarios. In this framework, a GCMs statistical downscaling method based on machine learning is used to project future precipitation, the PLUS model is used to project future land use, the digitwining watershed model (DWM) is used to project future runoff, and the entropy weight method is used to calculate risk. Six extreme precipitation indices are calculated to project the spatio-temporal patterns of future precipitation extremes in the HRB. The results of this study show that the intensity (Rx1day, Rx5day, PRCPTOT, SDII), frequency (R20m), and duration (CWD) of future precipitation extremes will be consistently increasing over the HRB during the 21st century. The high values of extreme precipitation indices in the HRB are primarily located in the southeast and southwest. The future annual average runoff in the upper HRB during the near-term (2023–2042) and mid-term (2043–2062) is projected to decrease in comparison to the baseline period (1995–2014), with the exception of that during the mid-term under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The high flood risk center in the future will be distributed in the southwestern region of the upper HRB. The proportions of areas with high and medium–high flood risk in the upper HRB will increase significantly. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the area percentage with high flood risk during the future mid-term will reach 24.02%. The findings of this study will facilitate local governments in formulating effective strategic plans for future flood control management. Full article

High-resolution precipitation forecasts play a pivotal role in formulating comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation plans. As spatial resolution enhances, striking a balance between computation, storage, and simulation accuracy becomes imperative to ensure optimal cost-effectiveness. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs), a cornerstone of deep learning, are examined in this study for their downscaling capabilities in precipitation simulation. During a precipitation event on 23 June 2022, in Jiangsu Province, China, distinct rain belts emerged in both southern and northern Jiangsu, precisely captured by a numerical model (the Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF) with a 3 km spatial resolution. Specifically, precipitation was prevalent in northern Jiangsu from 00:00 to 11:00 Beijing Time (BJT), transitioning to southern Jiangsu from 12:00 to 23:00 BJT on the same day. Upon dynamic downscaling, the model reproduced precipitation in these periods with an average error of 12.35 mm at 3 km and 12.48 mm at 1 km spatial resolutions. Employing CNN technology for statistical downscaling to a 1 km spatial resolution, samples from the initial period were utilized for training, while those from the subsequent period served for validation. Following dynamic downscaling, CNNs with four, five, six, and seven layers exhibited average errors of 8.86 mm, 8.93 mm, 9.71 mm, and 9.70 mm, respectively, accompanied by correlation coefficients of 0.550, 0.570, 0.574, and 0.578, respectively. This analysis indicates that for this precipitation event, a shallower CNN depth yields a lower average error and correlation coefficient, whereas a deeper architecture enhances the correlation coefficient. By employing deep network architectures, CNNs are capable of capturing nonlinear patterns and subtle local features from complex meteorological data, thereby providing more accurate predictions during the downscaling process. Leveraging faster computation and reduced storage requirements, machine learning has demonstrated immense potential in high-resolution forecasting research. There is significant scope for advancing technologies that integrate numerical models with machine learning to achieve higher-resolution numerical forecasts. Full article

Monitoring future irrigation water demand as a part of agricultural interventions is crucial to ensure food security. In this study, the impact of climate change on paddy cultivation in Brunei is investigated, focusing on the Wasan rice scheme. This research aims to project irrigation water requirement (IWR) and crop water requirement (CWR) or the main and off season using the WEAP-MABIA model. Historical data analysis over the past 30 years and future projections up to 2100 are employed to assess potential impacts. An ensemble of statistically downscaled climate models, based on seven CMIP6 GCMs under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585), was utilised to project the IWR and CWR. Using downscaled CMIP6 data, three future periods were bias-corrected using quantile delta mapping (QDM) for 2020–2046 (near future), 2047–2073 (mid future), and 2074–2100 (far future). The WEAP-MABIA model utilises a dual crop coefficient approach to evaluate crop evapotranspiration (ET_c), a critical factor in computing IWR. Results indicate that changes in future temperatures will lead to higher average ET_c. Consequently, this results in elevated demands in irrigation water during the off season, and it is especially prominent in high-emission scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585). While the main season experiences a relatively stable or slightly increasing IWR trend, the off season consistently shows a decreasing trend in IWR. Moreover, the off season benefits from substantial rainfall increases, effectively reducing IWR despite the rise in both maximum and minimum temperatures. This study also highlights some recommendations for implementing possible improvements in irrigation management to address the effects of climate change on rice cultivation in the region. Future investigation should focus on enhancing crop yield predictions under climate change by integrating a dynamic crop growth model that adjusts for changing crop coefficient (Kc) values. Full article