Search Results (144)

The connection between sugar and ethanol prices is in line with concerns about the connection between oil and food prices. This paper studies the nexus between Colombia’s ethanol and sugar prices and the role that weather shocks play. Data on production and prices from the sugar mills and climate data on precipitation and temperature are used to estimate two ways to capture the relationship between prices and the role of weather shocks. First, a reduced-form estimation is made, where the study finds evidence of the pass-through of the international price to domestic prices and how high precipitation and temperature shocks increase prices. Then, the study addresses potential simultaneity problems between prices and estimates a VEC model with exogenous variables such as weather shocks. Results show that all domestic prices are affected by the international price, and the international price is affected by the white sugar domestic prices. Additionally, sugar prices react to shocks in ethanol prices, but ethanol prices do not react to shocks in sugar prices. Finally, weather shocks affect sugar prices, with daytime temperature shocks being the most damaging. Full article

Morocco is facing a situation of alarming water stress, aggravated by climate change, overexploitation of resources, and unequal distribution of water, placing the country among the most vulnerable to water scarcity in the MENA region. This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth and water stress in Morocco while highlighting the importance of integrated water management and adaptive economic policies to enhance resilience to water scarcity. A mixed methodology, integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods, was adopted to overview the economic–environmental Moroccan context, and to empirically analyze the GDP (gross domestic product) and water stress in Morocco over the period 1975–2021 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical analysis is based on annual data sourced from the World Bank and FAO databases for GDP, agricultural value added, renewable internal freshwater resources, and water productivity. The results suggest that water productivity has a significant positive effect on economic growth, while the impacts of agricultural value added and renewable water resources are less significant and vary depending on the model specification. Diagnostic tests confirm the reliability of the ARDL model; however, the presence of outliers in certain years reflects the influence of exogenous shocks, such as severe droughts or policy changes, on the Moroccan economy. The key contribution of this study lies in the fact that it is the first to analyze the intrinsic link between economic growth and the environmental aspect of water in Morocco. According to our findings, it is imperative to continuously improve water productivity and adopt adaptive management, rooted in science and innovation, in order to ensure water security and support the sustainable economic development of Morocco. Full article

China’s timber market is very complex and heterogeneous, and is experiencing the impact of the construction of national reserve forests and the downturn in the real estate sector. By setting up a partial equilibrium model which reflects the heterogeneity of China’s wood market, not only difference among domestic timber groups can be identified, but the dissimilarity of imported timber can also be differentiated from the aspects of species and sources. This model is capable of capturing the effects of macroeconomic conditions, forestry sector policies, and trade cost variations on China’s timber market structure. According to simulations of supply shocks, China’s large-diameter log capacity enhancement will have a noticeable crowding-out effect on imported timber, suggesting the diameter of logs is an important factor for market entities to make trade-offs between domestic and imported timber. Amidst both supply and demand shocks, the equilibrium quantity changes in China’s domestic small-diameter logs and imported timber are dominated by demand shocks, whereas the equilibrium quantity change in China’s domestic large-diameter logs is dominated by supply shocks; moreover, only domestic large-diameter logs realize quantity increase in double shocks; this improves China’s domestic timber supply structure, and is a good example of “opportunities in crisis” in the face of negative demand shocks. Full article

The relationship between trade openness and economic performance has been widely debated and researched during the last several decades. However, the specific influence of trade openness from the perspective of controlling the inflation rate is rarely researched specifically for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Accordingly, this research paper attempts to test the influence of trade openness on inflation, focusing on KSA. The paper utilizes historical data from 1975 to 2023 and employs the “Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)” and “Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL)” cointegration techniques to assess the responsiveness of the inflation rate to increased trade openness. The results of the ARDL demonstrated the positive influence that trade openness has on inflation, which is a rejection of Romer’s hypothesis. The findings of the NARDL also rejected Romer’s hypothesis by demonstrating a positive relationship between the positive shocks in trade openness and the inflation rate. Similarly, our results illustrated a significant negative impact of domestic industrialization and government expenditure on inflation. Moreover, we found that the inflation rate in KSA is significantly dependent on economic performance. Finally, our findings demonstrated that the natural resource sector is unable to explain the inflationary pressure in KSA significantly. Full article

The enforcement of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) may reduce the supply of natural rubber to the European Union (EU), potentially leading to price increases due to the inelastic nature of rubber demand. This study assesses the potential financial implications for smallholder producers in Ghana, considering both the opportunities and risks associated with the evolving regulatory environment under EUDR and local market access conditions. A cost–benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted to evaluate the impact of different EUDR-related export decline scenarios on the net present value (NPV) of a standard 4-hectare plantation. The results suggest that even a minor 2.5% decline in global exports to the EU could increase the NPV by 17% for an independent compliant producer. However, a simulated COVID-19-like crisis in the fifth year of production leads to a 20% decline in NPV, reflecting vulnerability to external shocks. Based on these findings, the study identifies two priorities. This first is improving the coordination and harmonization of compliance efforts across the value chain to enable more producers to benefit from potential EUDR-related price increases. The recent creation of the Association of Natural Rubber Actors of Ghana (ANRAG) presents an opportunity to support such collective mechanisms. Second, minimizing losses during demand shocks requires the Tree Crops Development Authority (TCDA) to establish clear rules and transparent reporting for authorizing unprocessed rubber exports when factories reduce purchases due to low international prices—thus preserving market access for vulnerable producers. Together, these approaches would ensure that the potential benefits of the EUDR are realized inclusively, remain stable despite market downturns, and do not undermine value addition in domestic processing factories. Full article

Housing prices have recently risen sharply in many countries, primarily linked to the global credit cycle. Although various factors play a role, the ability of developing countries to navigate this cycle and maintain autonomous monetary policies is crucial. This paper introduces a dynamic macroeconomic model featuring a housing production sector within an imperfect banking framework. It captures key housing and economic dynamics in advanced and emerging economies. The analysis shows domestic liquidity policies, such as bank capital requirements, reserve ratios, and currency devaluation, can stabilize investment and production. However, their effectiveness depends on foreign interest rates and liquidity. Stabilizing housing prices and risk-free bonds is more effective in high-interest environments, while foreign liquidity shocks have asymmetric impacts. They can boost or lower the effectiveness of domestic policy, depending on the country’s level of financial development. These findings have several policy implications. For example, foreign capital controls would be adequate in the short term but not in the long term. Instead, governments would try to promote the development of local financial markets. Controlling debt should be a target for macroprudential policy as well as promoting saving instruments other than real estate, especially during low interest rates. Full article

This study employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian estimation to rigorously evaluate China’s macroeconomic responses to cost-push, monetary policy, and foreign income shocks. This analysis leverages quarterly data from 2000 to 2024, focusing on critical variables such as the output gap, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, consumption, investment, and employment. The results demonstrate significant social welfare losses primarily arising from persistent inflation and output volatility due to domestic structural rigidities and global market dependencies. Monetary policy interventions effectively moderate short-term volatility but induce welfare costs if overly restrictive. The findings underscore the necessity of targeted structural reforms to enhance economic flexibility, balanced monetary policy to mitigate aggressive interventions, and diversified economic strategies to reduce external vulnerability. These insights contribute novel policy perspectives for enhancing China’s macroeconomic stability and resilience. Full article

Indonesia’s dependence on fossil fuel exports, particularly coal and crude oil, presents a dual challenge: sustaining economic growth while addressing rising CO₂ emissions. Despite significant attention to domestic energy consumption, the environmental implications of export activities remain underexplored. This study examines the dynamic relationship between energy exports, crude oil prices, and CO₂ emissions in Indonesia using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with annual data from 2002 to 2022. The analysis incorporates Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) to trace short- and long-term interactions among variables. Findings reveal that coal exports are strongly persistent and positively linked to past emission levels, while oil exports respond negatively to both coal and emission shocks—suggesting internal trade-offs. CO₂ emissions are primarily self-driven yet increasingly influenced by oil export fluctuations over time. Crude oil prices, in contrast, have limited impact on domestic emissions. This study contributes a novel export-based perspective to Indonesia’s emission profile and demonstrates the value of dynamic modeling in policy analysis. Results underscore the importance of integrated strategies that balance trade objectives with climate commitments, offering evidence-based insights for refining Indonesia’s nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and sustainable energy policies. Full article

The spotted longbarbel catfish, Hemibagrus guttatus, a nationally protected Class II species in China, faces increasing threats from habitat degradation. Recently, the spotted longbarbel catfish has gained attention as a promising aquaculture species, not only for its premium flesh quality but also for its potential role in conservation through sustainable captive breeding programs. Ammonia nitrogen (ammonia-N) is a ubiquitous byproduct of intensive farming and serves as the primary environmental stressor confronting aquatic species. Elucidating the ammonia-N tolerance of spotted longbarbel catfish constitutes a critical prerequisite for its successful domestication, which is the aim of this study. We demonstrate that ammonia-N stress significantly decreases the survival rate of spotted longbarbel catfish and induces tissue damage, including gill lamella proliferation, hepatocyte blurring, and renal necrosis. Transcriptomic analysis revealed that ammonia-N stress promotes the expression of genes related to endoplasmic reticulum stress, heat-shock proteins, immune response, and apoptosis, while inhibiting antioxidant-related genes and Wnt-related genes. Enzymatic assays indicate that ammonia-N stress inhibits the activities of multiple antioxidant enzymes, including SOD, CAT, GSH, GSH-Px, and T-AOC. Microbiome analysis showed that ammonia-N stress altered the intestinal microbial community by increasing harmful bacteria (e.g., Vibrio and Aeromonas) and suppressing beneficial bacteria (e.g., Cetobacterium and Lactococcus). These findings highlight the comprehensive negative impacts of ammonia-N on the health of the spotted longbarbel catfish and provide a theoretical basis for optimizing aquaculture conditions to support the sustainable protection and domestication of the spotted longbarbel catfish. Full article

Film cooling has been increasingly applied in turbine blade cooling design due to its excellent cooling performance. Although film-cooled blades demonstrate superior cooling effectiveness, the perforation design on blade surfaces compromises structural integrity, making fatigue failure prone to occur at cooling holes. Previous studies by domestic and international scholars have extensively investigated factors influencing film cooling effectiveness, including blowing ratio and hole geometry configurations. However, most research has overlooked the investigation of fatigue life in film-cooled blades. This paper systematically investigates blade fatigue life under various cooling air parameters by analyzing the relationships among cooling effectiveness, stress distribution, and fatigue life. Results indicate that maximum stress concentrations occur at cooling hole locations and near the blade root at trailing edge regions. While cooling holes effectively reduce blade surface temperature, they simultaneously create stress concentration zones around the apertures. Both excessive and insufficient cooling air pressure and temperature reduce thermal fatigue life, with optimal parameters identified as 600 K cooling temperature and 0.75 MPa pressure, achieving a maximum thermal fatigue life of 3400 cycles for this blade configuration. A thermal shock test platform was established to conduct fatigue experiments under selected cooling conditions. Initial fatigue damage traces emerged at cooling holes after 1000 cycles, with progressive damage expansion observed. By 3000 cycles, cooling holes near blade tip regions exhibited the most severe failure, demonstrating near-complete functional degradation. These findings provide critical references for cooling parameter selection in practical aeroengine applications of film-cooled blades. Full article

This paper explores the impact of trade openness and exchange rate volatility on South Africa’s industrial growth from 1980 to 2024 through a hybrid econometric framework combining Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models. It captures both long-term relationships and short-term economic patterns; the analysis reveals that gross domestic product (GDP) is the most significant and consistent driver of industrial value added (IVAD), while trade openness and currency volatility exert limited standalone effects. Structural shocks, notably the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, had significant negative short-term impacts on industrial performance, highlighting systemic vulnerabilities. Robustness tests, including rolling window ARDL and first-difference GDP estimation, confirm the persistence of these relationships. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition underscore the transient and moderate influence of external shocks compared with the dominant role of internal macroeconomic fundamentals. These findings indicate that liberalisation and exchange rate flexibility must be embedded within a broader developmental strategy underpinned by institutional strength, resilience building, and sustainability principles. This study provides fresh insights supporting policy frameworks that prioritise domestic industrial capacity, macroeconomic stability, and alignment with Sustainable Development Goal 9—inclusive and sustainable industrialisation. Full article

This study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of skilled and semi-skilled labor supply shocks on the Ethiopian economy and sectoral outputs. The study examines three policy scenarios: a 10% increase, a 15% increase, and a 20% increase in skilled and semi-skilled labor supply compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The findings show that all three scenarios contribute to higher economic growth, investment, and exports. The impact on sectoral outputs is also significant, with the industry and services sectors performing better than the agriculture sector. In the 20% increase scenario, the real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is projected to be 0.79 percentage points higher than the business-as-usual scenario. Additionally, the annual growth rates of investments and exports are expected to be 2.69 and 2.31 percentage points higher, respectively, compared to their business-as-usual scenario counterparts. The agriculture sector experiences a slight increase of 0.16 percentage points in annual production compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Output in the industry sector also sees a rise of 1.61 percentage points higher than the business-as-usual scenario, while outputs in the services sector improve significantly. Overall, the study highlights the positive impact of increasing the supply of skilled and semi-skilled labor on the economy. This is mainly due to the higher productivity of skilled and semi-skilled workers, which contributes to increased economic growth. The findings suggest that governments should implement policies to enhance the supply of skilled and semi-skilled labor, such as investing in education and training programs. These measures would promote economic growth and improve living standards. Full article

Sheep (Ovis aries), domesticated from wild Asian mouflon ~10,000 years ago, are an important livestock species adapted to various ecological environments. Recent advancements in high-throughput sequencing and global environmental databases have facilitated the exploration of genetic–environmental associations, uncovering the genetic and epigenetic mechanisms behind sheep’s adaptation to multiple environments. Studies show that HIF-1α and EPAS1 enhance high-altitude adaptation via hypoxic stress regulation; UCP1 contributes to cold adaptation through non-shivering thermogenesis; SLC4A4 and GPX3 increase drought resistance by regulating renal water reabsorption; and SOCS2 likely plays a role in metabolic and stress response regulation. Additionally, sheep adapt to temperature, drought, and environmental stress through DNA methylation, transcriptional regulation (e.g., SOD1, GPX4), heat shock proteins (e.g., HSP70), and metabolic pathways (e.g., UCP1). These findings offer valuable insights for improving sheep breeding and genetic enhancement. This review summarizes the mechanisms of adaptation to high altitude, cold, heat, drought, and comprehensive climate stress. Full article

Financial stability analysis requires volatility modeling, especially in emerging nations where pension fund systems are very vulnerable to macrofinancial risks. In order to examine the volatility dynamics of Romania’s private pension system, this study uses daily net asset value (NAV) data from 2012 to 2024 to evaluate four GARCH-type models: standard GARCH (sGARCH), exponential GARCH (EGARCH), Glosten–Jagannathan–Runkle GARCH (GJR-GARCH), and component GARCH (C-GARCH). The analysis includes domestic and international equity indices (BET, STOXX), government bond yields (ROMGB 10Y, ROMANI 5Y), short-term interbank rates (ROBOR ON), and exchange rate fluctuations (RON/EUR). Current findings indicate that EGARCH captures asymmetric fluctuations in pension fund performance, where positive shocks generate larger increases in volatility than negative ones, highlighting an atypical asymmetry pattern. Furthermore, the stabilizing effects of government bonds are overshadowed by stock market behavior, which becomes the primary driver of risk. Fluctuations in exchange rates further increase volatility, especially in markets vulnerable to external disturbances. The findings offer empirical evidence for the necessity of more cautious risk management approaches and highlight the importance of regulatory oversight in maintaining market confidence. The study underscores the importance of customized allocation frameworks that reduce vulnerability to disruptive events while maintaining prospects for sustained growth. This new dataset contributes to enhancing the comprehension of pension fund volatility within the context of emerging markets. These insights can assist managers and policymakers seeking to fortify retirement outcomes. Full article

We investigate the sustainability of the asymmetric public social spending (PSS)–financialization relationship in the Eurozone over the period of 1995q1–2023q4. We follow the theoretical endogenous nexus of PSS with the financial fragility hypothesis (FFH) and finance-led growth regime; the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and cointegration are applied for this purpose. The analysis suggests the following: (1) The selected determinants of the three stages of the FFH affect dependent PSS asymmetrically in the long run (as well as in the short run, sometimes); meanwhile, more often than not, significantly larger effects tended to be negative changes. (2) The asymmetric shocks of explanatories gently increase PSS in many cases but also decrease it strongly in others. (3) The “automatic stabilizer” role of PSS is proven, whereas the contrary is not rejected; that is, PSS was also used as a “counter-automatic stabilizer” tool. (4) This leads to “ratchet effects”; the direction of these effects is unclear, but it seems to decline over time. (5) The financialization of the PSS phenomenon is revealed and discussed using relevant economic interpretations for certain determinants, such as credits to nonfinancial corporations, relative profitability, domestic borrowing from abroad, and the snowball effect; all of these have long-term effects on PSS, comprising negative changes, with asymmetric dynamics towards a new equilibrium at a horizon of between 4 and 16 quarters. Policy implications are related to the sustainability of PSS through the control of the economy’s financialization. We contribute to the literature by analyzing—for the first time as far as we know—the endogenous nonlinear long- and short-run dynamics of PSS based on a comprehensive model of the FFH and the finance-led growth regime. Full article