Search Results (26)

The intensification of extreme rainfall events under changing climate regimes has heightened concerns over nutrient losses from paddy agriculture, particularly nitrogen (N), a primary contributor to non-point source pollution. Despite advances in drainage management, limited studies have integrated probabilistic rainfall modeling with N transport simulation to evaluate mitigation strategies in rice-based systems. This study addresses this critical gap by coupling the Log-Pearson Type III (LP-III) distribution with the DRAINMOD-N II model to simulate N dynamics under varying rainfall exceedance probabilities and drainage design configurations in the Kunshan region of eastern China. The DRAINMOD-N II showed good performance, with R² values of 0.70 and 0.69, AAD of 0.05 and 0.39 mg L⁻¹, and RMSE of 0.14 and 0.91 mg L⁻¹ for NO₃⁻-N and NH₄⁺-N during calibration, and R² values of 0.88 and 0.72, AAD of 0.06 and 0.21 mg L⁻¹, and RMSE of 0.10 and 0.34 mg L⁻¹ during validation. Using around 50 years of historical precipitation data, we developed intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves via LP-III to derive return-period rainfall scenarios (2%, 5%, 10%, and 20%). These scenarios were then input into a validated DRAINMOD-N II model to assess nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃⁻-N) and ammonium-nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N) losses across multiple drain spacing (1000–2000 cm) and depth (80–120 cm) treatments. Results demonstrated that NO₃⁻-N and NH₄⁺-N losses increase with rainfall intensity, with up to 57.9% and 45.1% greater leaching, respectively, under 2% exceedance events compared to 20%. However, wider drain spacing substantially mitigated N losses, reducing NO₃⁻-N and NH₄⁺-N loads by up to 18% and 12%, respectively, across extreme rainfall scenarios. The integrated framework developed in this study highlights the efficacy of drainage design optimization in reducing nutrient losses while maintaining hydrological resilience under extreme weather conditions. Full article

Intensity–Frequency–Duration Curves (IDF curves) are a tool applied in hydraulic and hydrology engineering to design infrastructure for rainfall management. They express how precipitation, with a defined duration (D) and intensity (I), is frequent in a certain area. They are built from past recorded rainfall series, applying the extreme value statistics, and they are considered invariant in time. However, the current climate change projections are showing a detectable positive trend in temperatures, which, according to Clausius–Clapeyron, is expected to intensify extreme precipitation (higher temperatures bring more water vapour available for precipitation). According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, rainfall events are projected to intensify their magnitude and frequency, becoming more extreme, especially across “climatic hot-spot” areas such as the Mediterranean basin. Therefore, a sensible modification of IDF curves is expected, posing some challenges for future hydraulic infrastructure design (i.e., sewage networks), which may experience damage and failure due to extreme intensification. In this paper, a methodology for reconstructing IDF curves by analysing the EURO-CORDEX climate model outputs is presented. The methodology consists of the analysis of climatic rainfall series (that cover a future period up to 2100) using GEV (Generalised Extreme Value) techniques. The future anomalies of rainfall height (H) and their return period (RP) have been evaluated and then compared to the currently adopted IDF curves. The study is applied in Lombardy (Italy), a region characterised by strong orographic precipitation gradients due to the influence of Alpine complex orography. The future anomalies of H evaluated in the study show an increase of 20–30 mm (2071–2100 ensemble median, RCP 8.5) in rainfall depth. Conversely, a significant reduction in the return period by 40–60% (i.e., the current 100-year event becomes a ≈40–60-year event by 2071–2100 under RCP 8.5) is reported, leading to an intensification of extreme events. The former have been considered to correct the currently adopted IDF curves, taking into account climate change drivers. A series of applications in the field of hydraulic infrastructure (a stormwater retention tank and a sewage pipe) have demonstrated how the influence of IDF curve modification may change their design. The latter have shown how future RP modification (i.e., reduction) of the design rainfall may lead to systematic under-design and increased flood risk if not addressed properly. Full article

This paper presents an innovative derivation of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, which play a crucial role in the design of hydraulic infrastructures. IDF curves are herein derived from excess rainfall, that is, the net rainfall obtained by removing abstractions related to hydrological losses from total gross rainfall. When long fine fine-resolution time series of rainfall depth are available at a site, excess rainfall can be obtained by applying a simplified hydrological model of a catchment, including solely the gross-excess rainfall conversion. The application of annual maxima (AM) analysis on excess rainfall intensity data enables the construction of excess rainfall-based intensity–duration–frequency (ERIDF) curves. For assigned rainfall event criticality (return period) and duration, these curves directly provide the associated excess rainfall intensity value. This results in a better preservation of the return period in the rainfall–runoff transformation when used inside the rational formula for estimating peak water discharge, in comparison with the conventional approach adopted by practitioners, based on derivation of IDF curves and on the application of runoff coefficient for gross-excess rainfall conversion inside the rational formula. Full article

Global climate change is intensifying extreme rainfall, exacerbating urban flood risks, and undermining the effectiveness of urban stormwater drainage systems (USDS) designed under stationary climate assumptions. While prior studies have identified general trends of increasing flood risk under climate change, they lack actionable connections between climate projections and practical flood risk assessment. Specifically, quantifiable forecasts of extreme rainfall for defined return periods and integrated frameworks linking climate modeling to hydrological simulation at the watershed scale. This study addresses these gaps by developing an integrated framework to assess USDS resilience under future climate scenarios, demonstrated through a case study in Changsha City, China. The framework combines dynamic downscaling of the MRI-CGCM3 global climate model using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate high-resolution precipitation data, non-stationary frequency analysis via the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to project future rainfall intensities (for 2–200-year return periods in the 2040s and 2060s), and a 1D-2D coupled urban flood model built in InfoWorks ICM to evaluate flood risk. Key findings reveal substantial intensification of extreme rainfall, particularly for long-term period events, with the 24 h rainfall depth for 200-year events projected to increase by 32% by the 2060s. Flood simulations show significant escalation in risk: for 100-year events, an area with ponding depth > 500 mm grows from 1.38% (2020s) to 1.62%, (2060s), and the 300–500 mm ponding zone expands by 21%, with long-return-period events (≥20 years) driving most future risk increases. These results directly demonstrate the inadequacy of stationary design approaches for USDS, which carries substantial applied significance for policymakers and stakeholders. Specifically, it underscores the urgent need for these key actors to update engineering standards by adopting non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and integrate Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) into formal flood management strategies. Full article

When water damage occurs in a mine, variations in the immersion levels of tunnels at different burial depths can be observed. There is a significant relationship between the stability of the surrounding rock and the depth of immersion. Therefore, studying the deformation and damage characteristics of sandstone with circular holes at varying immersion depths, along with their acoustic properties, plays a crucial role in maintaining the stability of water-rich roadways. The TAW-2000 press and static strain system were utilized to investigate the mechanical properties, crack evolution, and deformation field distribution of sandstone with circular holes at varying immersion depths. Additionally, this study analyzed the impact of immersion depth on the characteristic parameters of acoustic emission. The results indicate that immersion depth is negatively correlated with the compressive strength and modulus of elasticity of sandstone; as immersion depth increases, the duration of the compression and yield phases of the rock samples also increases, while the duration of the elastic phase remains relatively unaffected. Furthermore, greater immersion depths correspond to a decrease in the total number of cracks, although the proportion of tensile cracks increases, making the formation of secondary cracks less likely. The frequency of acoustic emission events (transient elastic waves generated by the formation, extension, or closure of tiny cracks within the rock) shows a closely correlated dynamic with the stress–time curve of the rock sample. The acoustic emission ringing counts generated by rock samples under submerged water conditions tend to stabilize with a slight increase before signs of rupture appear. Additionally, the cumulative total energy of acoustic emissions from the rock samples decreases as the water level rises. These research findings provide significant reference value for addressing issues related to water immersion and the extent of water saturation in roadways within rock engineering. Full article

Flood analyses when using a GIS-based integrated approach have been successfully applied around the world in large-sized watersheds. This study employed hydrological-hydraulic modeling to analyze flash floods by integrating HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, and ArcGIS software for flood evaluation and control in a micro-watershed in the Samaru River, Nigeria. The watershed boundaries, its characteristics (soil and land use), the topographical survey, and the intensity duration frequency curve (IDF) of the study area were produced using data-driven techniques. The HEC-HMS model was used to derive the peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year return periods with the frequency storm method. Afterward, the water surface profiles for the respective return periods were estimated using the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model. The simulated design flood for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year return periods at the reference location (the NUGA gate culvert) were 3.5, 6.8, 9.1, 12.1, 14.3, 16.6, and 19.0 m³/s, respectively, while those at the watershed outlet for the respective return periods were 7.5, 14.9, 20.3, 27.3, 32.6, 38.0, and 43.5 m³/s, respectively (with a water height of 0.9 m, 1.1 m, 1.3 m, 1.33 m, 1.38 m, 1.5 3m, and 1.8 m, respectively), at the NUGA gate culvert cross-section. The maximum water depths of about 0.9 m and 1.0 m were recorded in the right and left overbanks, which were similar to the simulated water depth for the 2- and 5-year return periods. Hence, for the smart control of floods passing through the river and major hydraulic structures, a minimum design height of 1.50 m is recommended. For the most economic trapezoidal channel section, a normal depth of 1.50 m, a bottom width of 1.73 m, a top width of 3.50 m, and a free board of 0.30 m is proposed to curb the overtopping of floods along the channel sub-sections. The findings of this study could help hydraulic engineers minimize flooding in streams and rivers overbanks in a micro-watershed. Full article

Extreme rainfall events have been more frequent in recent decades, potentially as a climate change effect. This has been leading to a higher risk of the failure of existing hydraulic infrastructures, and to a higher awareness regarding the unreliability of design rainfall calculated with reference to historical data recorded in the last century. With this in mind, the present study questions the stationary assumption of the rainfall Depth–Duration–Frequency curves commonly used in Sicily, the biggest island of the Mediterranean Sea. Quantiles derived from the most up-to-date regional method, regarding Sicily, based on observations in the period 1928–2010, have been compared with those extracted from a high-resolution dataset related to the period 2002–2022, provided by the SIAS agency. The results showed a remarkable underestimation of the rainfall quantiles calculated with the regional approach, especially at the shortest durations and low return periods. This means that new hydraulic works should be designed with reference to longer return periods than in the recent past, and those that currently exist may experience a higher risk of failure. Future investigation of this aspect is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of water management and detecting hydrological risks under a changing climate. Full article

Due to the gradual encroachment of natural drainage channels (also known as khals) and the poor management of drainage infrastructures, any rainfall of higher intensity for a few hours causes urban flooding in Dhaka, Bangladesh, hindering the daily lives of city dwellers, especially in slum areas. The Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves with return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years were estimated for a 3 h duration of rainfall using the Gumbel statistical method to assess urban flooding extent around the Baganbari slum within the Baunia Khal watershed. The spatial land use changes of the Baunia Khal were also delineated through the analysis of the areal changes of the khal from 2004 to 2020. The area of the khal was found to be 7.00 km², 2.17 km² and 0.41 km² for the years 2004, 2010, and 2020, respectively. It appears that a gradual massive areal decrease of the khal (impervious land segment) was in progress during this period for high encroachments driven by various governmental agencies and other private entities’ urban developmental projects. The runoff coefficient was computed as 0.76 based on the existing land use pattern, slope, and soil type of the study area. The average runoff generated from the catchment was estimated using the rational method and was 103.41 m³/hr. The drainage length was calculated as 9.1 km using the Kirpich method, whereas the present drainage length was reported as only 6.95 km. The multiple rainfall intensities with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years were also applied to replicate a heightened extent of urban flooding in the Baunia Khal watershed. The study suggests that the depth, length and width of the Baunia Khal need to increase to hold the generated runoff to manage urban flooding around the Baunia Khal watershed. Full article

Sandstone oil–gas reservoirs in the Junggar Basin, China have great development potential. However, their ultra-deep formation depth leads to high crustal stress and high breakdown pressure. Therefore, in this research, we studied the cyclic hydraulic fracturing of tight sandstone with different combinations of “high-pressure duration + low-pressure duration” under high-stress conditions. Through laboratory experiments, the pump pressure curves, hydraulic fracture morphology, acoustic emission counts, and peak frequency of the samples were obtained. The results showed that: (1) Compared with conventional hydraulic fracturing, the breakdown pressure of cyclic hydraulic fracturing was reduced by more than 30%, the minimum threshold of cyclic pump pressure required for sample breakdown was between 60%P_b and 70%P_b, and cyclic hydraulic fracturing more easily formed complex and diverse hydraulic fractures. (2) In cyclic hydraulic fracturing, under the same upper limit of cyclic pump pressure, the shorter the high-pressure duration, the fewer the cycles required for sample breakdown. (3) Under the same “high-pressure duration + low-pressure duration” condition, the lower the upper limit of the cyclic pump pressure, and the greater the number of cycles required for sample breakdown. (4) The AE cumulative counts curves fluctuated greatly during cyclic hydraulic fracturing, rising in an obvious step-wise manner and the AE peak frequency was banded and mainly divided into three parts: low frequency, medium frequency, and high frequency. Full article

Urban flooding has become one of the most common natural hazards threatening people’s lives and assets globally due to climate change and rapid urbanization. Hydraulic structures, e.g., sluicegates and pumping stations, can directly influence flooding processes and should be represented in flood modeling and risk assessment. This study aims to present a robust numerical model by incorporating a hydraulic structure simulation module to accurately predict the highly transient flood hydrodynamics interrupted by the operation of hydraulic structures to support object-level risk assessment. Source-term and flux-term coupling approaches are applied and implemented to represent different types of hydraulic structures in the model. For hydraulic structures such as a sluicegate, the flux-term coupling approach may lead to more accurate results, as indicated by the calculated values of NSE and RMSE for different test cases. The model is further applied to predict different design flood scenarios with rainfall inputs created using Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationships, Chicago Design Storm, and surveyed data. The simulation results are combined with established vehicle instability formulas and depth-damage curves to assess the flood impact on individual objects in an urbanized case study area in Zhejiang Province, China. Full article

Simulation of dam breach scenarios can help in the preparation of emergency action plans for real dam breaks or flash flooding events. The purpose of this study was to identify flood-prone areas in the Al Wala Valley in the governorate of Madaba in Jordan through analysis of the Al Wala Dam. Modelling of dam breaches was conducted under two scenarios: a Clear Day scenario and a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) scenario. The former scenario does not address the various dam failure modes; rather, it addresses the formation and development of a breach as a result of structural failures like the sliding of dam blocks in the case of a concrete dam or piping failures in the case of embankment dams. The PMF scenarios, however, simulate unsteady flow in pipes and overtopping failure via consideration of runoff hydrography. In the PMF scenario, flood-prone areas can be identified by in-depth analysis of data from previous extreme rainfall events. The related hydrologic and hydraulic data can then be modelled using intensity-duration-frequency curves applied to an hour-by-hour simulation to discover the areas most at risk of flooding in the future. In the present study, data were collected from inlet of flow to Al Wala Valley on 10 January 2013. The collected data, which included rainfall and discharge data, were fed to the HEC-HMS software in order to calibrate the hydrological parameters of the watershed of the Al Wala Dam. Additionally, the HEC-RAS tool was employed to determine the breach outflow hydrography and hydraulic conditions across various critical downstream locations, which were determined by use of dynamic flood wave-routing models. The simulations revealed that, in the case of the Clear Day scenario, downstream inundation would cover an area of 5.262 km² in the event of a pipe failure. However, in the event of a six-hour storm, a twelve-hour storm, and a twenty-four-hour storm, the flooded area would rise to 6.837 km², 8.518 km², and 9.390 km², respectively. In the event of an overtopping failure, 13.171 km² would be inundated, according to the Clear Day scenario. On the other hand, in the event of a six-hour storm, a twelve-hour storm, and a twenty four-hour storm, the flooded area would rise to 13.302 km², 14.249 km², and 14.594 km², respectively. Full article

This paper aims to present simple regressive equations to estimate the parameters of the three-parameter depth–duration–frequency (DDF) curve (3p-DDF), which accurately expresses, for a preassigned return period, the relationship between the rainfall depth and the rainfall duration over large duration ranges, from below 1 h (i.e., tens of minutes) to above 1 h (up to 24 h). These equations are developed to relate their parameters to those of the two-parameter DDF curve (2p-DDF), which can be estimated more easily being based on more readily available data related to rainfall durations above 1 h. In the applications, the regressive equations are first calibrated using recent pluviographic data in northern Italy, Germany, and Sweden. Two validation steps are then carried out to test the equations in terms of estimated rainfall depths using the same data as those used in the calibration step and data of stations from other geographic areas, i.e., Sicily in southern Italy, and from the past century, respectively. The results obtained prove this methodology capable of providing reliable estimation of short-duration rainfalls with various return periods in the absence of measurements with fine temporal resolution. Full article

Cities must develop actions that reduce flood risk in the face of extreme rainfall events. In this study, the dynamic resilience of the Gregorio catchment (São Carlos, Brazil) was assessed. The catchment lacks environmental monitoring and suffers from recurrent floods. The resilience curves were made considering the water depth in the drainage system as the performance index, obtained by simulations with SWMM and HEC-RAS. The calibration of the flood extension was performed using citizen science data. The contribution to increasing the dynamic resilience by implementing decentralized low impact development (LID) practices was also evaluated. For this purpose, bioretention cells were added to the SWMM simulations. The resilience curves were then calculated for the current and future climate scenario, with and without LID, for return periods of 5, 10, 50, and 100 years and duration of 30, 60, and 120 min. Intensity–duration–frequency curves (IDFs) updated by the regional climate model MIROC5 for 2050 and 2100 were used. The results showed a significant improvement in the system’s resilience for light storms and the current period due to LID practice interventions. Efficiencies were reduced for moderate and heavy storms with no significant drops in floodwater depth and resilience regardless of the scenario. Full article

The assessment of rainfall extremes at sub-hourly scales is generally hindered by a lack of rainfall data at small timescale resolutions. This study proposes a methodology for assessing mean annual maximum rainfall at the sub-hourly scale by blending historical time series of annual maxima recorded by mechanical stations (operating at hourly scales) up to the end of the past century with newer time series of annual maxima at higher time resolutions recorded by automatic stations installed over the past twenty years. A linear correlation was found at the regional scale between the shape parameter controlling the dependency of rainfall maxima with a duration longer than one hour and the shape parameter of the dependency of rainfall maxima with the durations shorter than one hour. Thanks to this correlation, data recorded at the mechanical stations could be exploited to assess sub-hourly mean annual maxima. The proposed hybrid procedure was verified and was found to provide estimates with an accuracy close to those obtained with the high-resolution data, i.e., our best estimates. Moreover, the proposed procedure outperforms what could be achieved by spatially interpolating the best estimates at those locations where only hourly data are available. Full article

One of the main signatures of short duration storms is given by Depth–Duration–Frequency (DDF) curves. In order to provide reliable estimates for small river basins or urban catchments, generally characterized by short concentration times, in this study the performances of different DDF curves proposed in literature are described and compared, in order to provide insights on the selection of the best approach in design practice, with particular reference to short durations. With this aim, 28 monitoring stations with time series of annual maximum rainfall depth characterized by sample size greater than 20 were selected in the Northern part of the Puglia region (South-Eastern Italy). In order to test the effect of the investigated DDF curves in reproducing the design peak discharge corresponding to an observed expected rainfall event, the Soil Conservation (SCS) curve number (CN) approach is exploited, generating peak discharges according to different selected combinations of the main parameters that control the critical rainfall duration. Results confirm the good reliability of the DDF curves with three parameters to adapt on short events both in terms of rainfall depth and in terms of peak discharge and, in particular, for durations up to 30 min, the three-parameter DDF curves always perform better than the two-parameter DDF. Full article