Search Results (147)

Recurrent meteorological droughts, projected to intensify under climate change, affect the cross-border Lima River Basin shared between Portugal and Spain, highlighting the need for robust early warning systems to support proactive water management. Within the EU-funded RISC_PLUS project—aimed at strengthening resilience to hydro-climatic risks in the cross-border Minho–Lima River Basins—this study develops a regionalised forecasting framework to evaluate meteorological drought forecast skill using precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (SEAS5) for the Portuguese section of the Lima River Basin. A precipitation-only 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI12) is employed to isolate the contribution of seasonal precipitation forecasts. SPI12 is computed from hybrid 12-month accumulations combining observed monthly precipitation (October 1979 to February 2025) and SEAS5 forecasts (October 2018 to February 2025). Four hybrid configurations (1 to 6 months lead time) are evaluated: 11 obs + 1 fcst, 10 obs + 2 fcsts, 9 obs + 3 fcsts, and 6 obs + 6 fcsts. Forecast performance is assessed from October 2018 to February 2025. Deterministic SPI12 forecasts and categorical drought classifications are evaluated using regression-based metrics (e.g., Pearson correlation and RMSE) and contingency-table metrics (e.g., FAR and F1-score), across SEAS5 ensemble members, percentiles, and spread-based indicators. The 11 obs + 1 fcst configuration, particularly when using the Dry Spread (SpD; Q10 + Q25 percentiles) and the Q75 percentile, exhibits the highest skill, achieving a Pearson correlation coefficient of $r=0.97$ and an RMSE of approximately 0.17, alongside near-perfect categorical performance (POD = 1.00; FAR = 0.00), although these scores are partly conditioned by the shared observed accumulation window. Conversely, longer lead-time configurations exhibit degraded performance, with the 6 obs + 6 fcsts configuration showing weak or negative skill relative to climatology, indicating that 6-month lead forecasts should be interpreted with caution. These results demonstrate that SEAS5 precipitation forecasts can provide skilful drought predictions at lead times of several months in the Lima River Basin within the SPI12 framework. The proposed blending methodology provides a transparent benchmark and a technical basis for the early-warning system being developed under the RISC_PLUS project to support drought risk management in the Minho–Lima region and complement data-driven drought forecasting approaches. Full article

Background: Malaria and dengue continue to pose significant public health challenges in Asia, with differing temporal trends and regional distributions. However, comparative and long-term assessments of their disease burden and future trajectories remain limited. Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data, we estimated age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs-ASR), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for global, Asian, and Chinese populations by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Correlations with SDI and population density were analyzed, and an importation risk index for China was developed. Future trends to 2030 were projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling. Findings: From 1990 to 2021, dengue ASIR increased globally and in China, particularly in middle-SDI regions, whereas malaria ASIR and DALYs-ASR declined substantially, with the most pronounced reductions observed in China. Dengue DALYs-ASR were highest among children under five, while incidence peaked in adolescents; malaria burden was concentrated in young children and young adults. Sex-specific differences were observed, with higher dengue incidence in females but greater DALY rates in males. Geographically, Southeast Asian countries contributed most to the estimated importation risk for both diseases. Projections indicate continued increases in dengue burden through 2030, alongside further declines in malaria. Conclusions: Malaria and dengue exhibit divergent epidemiological patterns across Asia, with declining malaria burden but rising dengue incidence. These findings highlight the need for differentiated control strategies, strengthened regional collaboration, and enhanced surveillance of cross-border transmission. Full article

Introduction: AQUArestore is a three-year project focused on promoting adaptive ecological restoration strategies for river ecosystems in the vulnerable cross-border region of Portugal. The project responds to pressing environmental challenges across the territory, including severe habitat degradation, climate vulnerability, declining water security, and biodiversity loss, with particular concern for freshwater fish communities, making river restoration essential to preserve native species and freshwater ecosystem services. Objective: The project aims to develop a replicable framework for restoration of Mediterranean transboundary riverine habitats, supporting the objectives of the EU Nature Restoration Law (NRL, Regulation 2024/1991). The consortium AQUArestore will develop (1) robust restoration indicators, (2) implement living labs for restoration experimentation, and (3) establish capacity-building and training programs for technicians and citizens. Methodology: The project kick-off meeting was used to operationalize project tasks, detail the implementation calendar and milestones, and clarify responsibilities of each project member and partner institutions within the different work tasks. The meeting gathered consortium members from the coordinating institution CEF-ISA (researchers at the Instituto Superior de Agronomia) and partners WWF Portugal (an environmental NGO) and Mushmore Cooperative, each one contributing according to their respective expertise and institutional objectives. Results: The AQUArestore project kick-off meeting took place in January 2026 at ISA, Lisbon, and included a presentation of the NRL and a detailed discussion of project task development. In detail, the activities will begin with the compilation of information on previously restored sites (Task 1). This will support the development and validation of environmental and biodiversity indicators of restoration outcomes, including those linked to freshwater fish assemblages and riparian vegetation (Task 2). The project will then establish two living labs as platforms to test nature-based solutions in collaboration with stakeholders and local communities (Task 3). In parallel, AQUArestore will strengthen technical capacity through training for practitioners and public authorities (Task 4). Finally, dissemination will be supported through citizen science, communication activities, and stakeholder engagement, fostering a broader impact (Task 5). Together, these tasks provide an integrated, science-based, and participatory framework aiming to support adaptive river restoration under climate and environmental changes. Conclusions: By integrating ecological restoration, biodiversity and environmental monitoring, and stakeholder engagement, AQUArestore is expected to contribute to the recovery of Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems and improve habitat quality and connectivity for native fish communities, enhancing resilience to climate change and other anthropogenic pressures. Full article

This paper develops a theory-first framework explaining how tariff policy reshapes participation and position in global value chains (GVCs). Building on the input–output price model and value-added trade accounting, we formalize the tariff cascade and introduce three portable diagnostics: the Tariff Propagation Multiplier (TPM), the Backward/Forward Tariff Elasticity Decomposition (BFTED), and the Stage-Shift Metric (SSM). We derive sign-robust propositions and provide aggregate-level empirical evidence consistent with the cascade mechanism using a dyadic panel of 260,473 observations spanning 1999–2018. Results show that home input tariffs significantly compress both backward and forward GVC participation, and that apparent GVC upgrading frequently reflects measurement composition rather than genuine technological relocation. A policy simulation calibrated to 25% tariff escalation scenario projects significant participation losses, with Canada’s high-exposure manufacturing sectors facing amplified cascade effects due to their dense cross-border input linkages. The framework offers actionable diagnostics for trade and industrial policy in an era of renewed protectionism. Full article

To quantify the carbon footprint of cross-border bridges built by Chinese companies in Africa, based on the Janwani Bridge in Tanzania and the life cycle theory, it is divided into five stages: production, transportation, on-site construction, operational maintenance, and demolition and disposal. Using the emission factor method to construct carbon emission models for each stage, while considering cross-border supply chains and the addition of vegetation carbon sinks, we quantify the emissions for each stage. The research is based on the project design stage bill of quantities and construction organization data for prediction and estimation. The energy consumption parameters of construction machinery refer to the Chinese quota standards, and the energy consumption of lighting during the operation period is estimated according to the design parameters. The results show that the total carbon emissions of the life cycle of the bridge is about 41,668,548.20 kgCO₂e, with the production stage being the dominant position (87.48%), and cement and reinforcing steel contributing more than 95% of the emissions during this stage. The operational maintenance stage comes second (7.28%), mainly driven by lighting electricity (accounting for 73.65% of the total emissions in this stage), attributed to the local power grid dominated by fossil fuels. Sensitivity analysis shows that the key factors are ranked as cement > reinforcing steel > electricity > diesel. Considering the reality of insufficient supply of low-carbon materials and weak infrastructure in Africa, emission reduction measures are proposed from three aspects: optimizing concrete mix proportion, controlling construction machinery, and implementing intelligent lighting. The research contribution lies in incorporating the entire cross-border transportation chain and newly added vegetation carbon sinks into the LCA boundary of bridges, while considering the dual attributes of “technology output + localized operation”, and constructing a carbon emission accounting model adapted to the built-up areas of African cities. On this basis, the carbon emission characteristics of the life cycle were quantitatively analyzed, feasible emission reduction measures in the region were proposed, and the carbon reduction potential was calculated, providing scientific basis for low-carbon control of Chinese enterprises’ overseas bridges. Full article

Climate change poses an escalating threat to food security in the Near East, a region characterized by water scarcity, rapid population growth, and heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture. Despite extensive research on climate change impacts on crop yields, the effects on rainfed crop suitability—the fundamental capacity of a region’s climate to support crop growth—remain insufficiently explored, particularly across transboundary river basins. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the suitability of seven rainfed crops in the Near East, specifically the Nile, Levant, and Tigris-Euphrates River basins. Using the EcoCrop model and climate projections for 2041–2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, we analyzed changes in crop suitability relative to a 1970–2000 baseline. Results project significant temperature increases (2.1–3.8 °C) and precipitation reductions (8–20%) in the Levant by mid-century, leading to alarming declines in crop suitability. While the Nile Basin is projected to gain substantial rainfall (+214 billion m³ under RCP 8.5 by 2050), the Fertile Crescent faces a significant rainfall decrease (−24 billion m³ under RCP 8.5 by 2050). Contrary to the negative impacts predicted for the Levant and parts of the Fertile Crescent, the Tigris-Euphrates basin shows potential suitability gains for maize and olives (up to +30% under RCP 4.5 for maize), with olives also showing increased suitability in other basins. However, the suitability of the remaining five rainfed crops is projected to decline across all basins under both emission scenarios. These findings highlight the complex and regionally diverse impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity in the Near East and provide critical information for cross-border food and water security policies. Full article

Background: In-person conferences (IPCs) in family medicine remain central for cross-border collaboration and early-career development. With the rise of digital formats, the motivations of young general practitioners (GPs) to attend or organise IPCs require closer investigation. Methods: Using a modified two-round Delphi design, we surveyed 107 participants and 23 organisers of the 2024 and 2025 EYFDM (European Young Family Doctors’ Movement) Forums. Round one included open and closed questions; round two involved prioritisation tasks. Quantitative data were analysed with non-parametric statistics; qualitative responses were thematically coded. Results: Participants primarily attended in-person conferences for networking (56.1%), workshops, and inspiration, while formal content played a secondary role. Organisers emphasised personal development, citing project management and teamwork as key benefits, though 34.8% reported workload and lack of recognition as major barriers. A strong preference for in-person formats (94.4%) reflected the perceived importance of interpersonal interaction, which online formats could not replicate. Conclusions: The findings highlight IPC as key environments for identity formation, motivation, and sustainable European collaboration in family medicine. Organising offers learning opportunities but demands better structural support. Future conference planning must prioritise in-person interaction, while using hybrid formats as complementary tools. IPCs remain essential for fostering authentic networks and collaboration among young GPs. Full article

This article presents an analysis of cross-border cooperation over the mountains. This research stems from a European project that investigated the difficulties and opportunities to form research and innovation (R&I) partnerships in the European Alps, a geographically challenging yet highly developed region bordering seven countries at the heart of Europe. The investigation highlights the role of orchestrator platforms for coordinating and matching partners in peripheral and complex areas such as the Alps, where the characteristics of a border region combine with small and peripheral urban areas. The analysis combines second-hand studies with surveys and interviews of 114 participants in innovative partnership projects from 2019 to 2022. The evidence highlights the challenges in forming effective partnerships and presents policy proposals for managing mountain entrepreneurial ecosystems. This research contributes by providing policy prescriptions that point to digital platforms for R&I collaborations in a disadvantaged and poorly explored context, such as the smaller urban areas in the Alps. Full article

The global energy transition demands solutions that balance intermittent renewable energy generation while decarbonizing heat and power sectors. Hydrogen has appeared as a versatile energy carrier, enabling sector coupling across electricity, heat, and industry. This work explores the integration of hydrogen into combined heat and power (CHP) systems, with a regional focus on Saarland, Germany. It depicts H₂-ready technologies including combustion engines, gas turbines, and fuel cells, and introduces a custom Python-based (Version 3.13) techno-economic optimization model to simulate multi-energy system operations. The analysis reveals that high hydrogen costs, electricity price volatility, and market design significantly constrain economic viability. However, Saarland’s industrial structure and cross-border infrastructure projects offer strategic opportunities for scalable hydrogen deployment. The article concludes with targeted recommendations for technology development, policy reform, and regional replication, positioning hydrogen CHP as a flexible and decarbonizing solution in energy-intensive regions. Full article

Moving beyond the limits of purely geometric or descriptive documentation, the study conceives the digital models as a structured information system capable of coherently and queryably organising both the formal-typological and the interpretative-historical dimensions of heritage. The methodology is developed within the framework of the European Horizon MSCA project Hephaestus, which investigates cross-border Cultural Heritage Routes (CHRs) and historic fortification systems in the Adriatic and Baltic basins. The paper focuses on Adriatic CHR, through the selection, organisation, and interrelation of a distributed corpus of fortified architectures, articulated according to historical phases, territorial clusters, typological classes, and multilevel relationships. The study adopts an approach centered on HBIM models and ontological frameworks, implemented through complementary top-down and bottom-up processes. The results show the possibility of structuring HBIM-derived data within an ontology-based framework capable of linking, within a single information system, architectural elements, fortified systems, and territorial entities across heterogeneous case studies. The application to differentiated contexts highlights the ability of the models to adapt to different scales and levels of complexity, supporting querying, comparison, and multi-level interpretation of heritage. The variety of sources and contexts enables the methodology to be tested across heterogeneous historical and typological scenarios, strengthening its applicability and robustness within a multiscalar information structure. Full article

Cryphalus dilutus is an emerging invasive pest of tropical and subtropical regions, with Mangifera indica and Ficus carica being its primary host plants. Larval damage caused by this insect can lead to severe tree wilting, posing a direct threat to agricultural production and ecological security. Native to South Asia, C. dilutus has established introduced populations in the Near East, Mexico, and other areas. In recent years, it has invaded multiple regions, including southern China and southern Italy. Given the widespread global distribution of host plants and the intensification of climate change, their distribution ranges are expected to expand. However, research assessing the potential global geographical distribution of this pest under climate change is lacking. In this study, we used the Random Forest model to predict the potential distribution range of C. dilutus. Under historical climatic conditions between 1970 and 2000, suitable climatic regions for C. dilutus were primarily distributed across southern China, southeastern Brazil, southeastern Mexico, the Congo Basin periphery, and the Iberian Peninsula, with a total area of 12,192.42 × 10⁴ km². The Temperature Annual Range and Precipitation of Warmest Quarter were identified as key environmental determinants that shaped its distribution. Under the future RCP4.5 climate scenario projected for the 2050s, the total suitable area for C. dilutus is projected to contract. Specifically, high-, medium-, and low-suitability areas are projected to decline by 52.77%, 62.39%, and 24.02%, respectively. While the total area of the very low zones is expected to increase, the total area of the suitable region has been reduced to 11,891.17 ×10⁴ km². Future climate change is expected to drive the distribution northward to high-altitude areas and inland areas. Model projections indicate a poleward expansion of the fundamental climatic niche, with climatic suitability increasing in high-latitude and high-altitude regions, such as Northern Europe and western North America. Conversely, current core tropical habitats in the Indian subcontinent and the Amazon Basin are projected to face significant habitat degradation due to thermal stress. Agricultural regions previously considered relatively safe due to climatic constraints, such as northern China, the midwestern United States, and Eastern Europe, may face new challenges from pest infestation. These findings underscore the importance of proactive monitoring and implementation of preventive measures. This provides crucial decision support for countries and regions to formulate precise pest control strategies and offers a theoretical basis for early monitoring and prevention of cross-border invasions on a global scale. Full article

Trustworthy Identity and Access Management (IAM) is a foundational requirement for federated data trading platforms, yet existing solutions often rely on centralized Identity Providers (IdPs), lack cross-border interoperability, and offer limited support for user-friendly authorization management. These limitations hinder secure onboarding, fine-grained access control, and regulatory compliance, especially within European Union (EU) data spaces governed by the Electronic Identification, Authentication, and Trust Services (eIDAS) 2.0 framework. This work presents a comprehensive IAM framework designed for federated data trading environments, developed within the EU-funded PISTIS project. The framework is based on Keycloak IAM and offers three major capabilities: (i) a novel IAM architecture tailored to distributed data trading scenarios; (ii) full integration of eIDAS-compliant cross-border authentication and initial support for European Digital Identity (EUDI) Wallets; and (iii) a standalone, web-based Access Policy Editor (APE) that abstracts Keycloak’s policy engine and enables non-technical users to define fine-grained, owner-driven access rules. The approach is evaluated across real-world mobility, energy, and automotive industry pilots, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing trust, interoperability, and usability within regulated data-sharing ecosystems. Full article

Achieving Egypt’s 2035 renewable electricity targets presents substantial operational and institutional challenges, compounded by limited electricity trade across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study applies a PLEXOS-based simulation framework that integrates short-term economic dispatch with the Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (PASA) to evaluate the system-level impacts of economically dispatched cross-border interconnections with Saudi Arabia, Libya, Jordan, and Sudan. The analysis also incorporates domestic flexibility measures, including five-minute dispatch, dynamic reserve requirements, and battery energy storage systems (BESS). Scenarios with renewable energy penetration levels of up to 50% are assessed using Egypt’s 2023 power system as the baseline. The results demonstrate that transitioning from a static, hourly, standalone operating framework to an integrated flexibility configuration—combining five-minute dispatch, 8 GW of economically dispatched cross-border interconnection capacity, and 8 GWh of BESS—yields substantial system-wide benefits at 50% renewable penetration. Loss-of-Load Probability declines from 96.48% to zero, ensuring full system adequacy, while total operational costs decrease by more than 45%, corresponding to annual savings of approximately USD 1.04 billion. Renewable energy curtailment is reduced by over 98%, enabling nearly 15 TWh of additional clean electricity generation, and CO₂ emissions fall by 11.6 million tons (≈40%). In addition, the operating-reserve shadow price—an indicator of reserve scarcity—declines to near zero, underscoring the effectiveness of coordinated regional dispatch and domestic flexibility in mitigating scarcity conditions. These findings provide robust evidence that integrated operational, temporal, and spatial flexibility can significantly accelerate renewable energy integration while strengthening system adequacy. The proposed framework offers an actionable and scalable blueprint for policy coordination and market reform in Egypt, with broader relevance for emerging power systems across the MENA region. Full article

The growing importance of cross-border scientific collaboration reflects its role in strengthening regional innovation systems and supporting sustainable socio-economic development. This study examines cross-border scientific research collaboration between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, with particular attention to how institutional differences impact the sustainable development of such cooperation. Drawing on the analytical framework of the cross-border regional innovation systems (CBRIS), this study employs qualitative research methods—including fieldwork interviews, focus groups, and thematic workshops—to systematically examine the key challenges and emerging opportunities arising from institutional differences between the two regions. The findings show that there are significant institutional differences in four areas, including research integrity systems, scientific resource sharing mechanisms, project management processes, and talent development frameworks. These distinctions not only undermine the effectiveness of cross-border collaboration, but they also offer opportunities for institutional coordination and policy innovation meant to promote a more inclusive and sustainable regional research cooperation system. By analysing the experiences of researchers and research administrators, the study emphasises the crucial importance of institutional coordination in ensuring the long-term sustainability of the CBRIS. The results offer data-based evidence and policy insights that can inform the development of policy innovations to strengthen cross-border scientific collaboration and promote the sustainable evolution of the CBRIS. Full article

Europe is dealing with environmental problems that require cooperation beyond national and regional borders. Air pollution, water pollution, biodiversity loss, and waste management are the major issues that are not only complex but also cross borders. Therefore, it is necessary to provide collaborative responses that go beyond the capacity of individual countries. This inquiry centers on the question of what the best way is to set up and govern the transnational cooperation in Europe to confront these major environmental challenges. A systematic bibliographic review of the research conducted between 2010 and 2025 forms the basis of this work. The research combines semantic analysis and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) modeling to study 80 selected publications to find the tenets of the themes discussed. The identified topics are urban climate change adaptation and mitigation, climate policy and management, adaptation and vulnerability frameworks, land use and biodiversity impacts, and future climate projections and assessment. The findings show that there are strong synergies between biodiversity and climate adaptation, resilience, and environmental governance, as well as the great influence of climate change on the water management sector. The study has unveiled the significance of institutional policy frameworks in bringing about environmental cooperation across borders. In addition, it depicts the relationship between local urban projects and supra-regional policy strategies, in which the two can merge and function efficiently as long as they are working towards the common goal of environmental sustainability. This study is meant to shed more light on the area of environmental governance research, discovering areas that need more exploration, and providing some signposts on how to improve environmental involvement in Europe. Full article