Search Results (39)

Drought exhibits a complex coupling response to regional meteorological factors, hydrological characteristics, land cover, and large-scale teleconnection climate indices, while their direct and indirect influences on multi-scale meteorological and hydrological droughts remain insufficiently understood, particularly in karst basins. This study investigated drought dynamics in China’s Yujiang River Basin using an integrated framework combining run theory, drought propagation analysis, and the partial least squares–structural equation model (PLS-SEM). We analyzed the 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized streamflow index (SSI) at four hydrological stations during 1984–2014, together with meteorological factors, land cover indices, large-scale climate indices, areal precipitation, and naturalized streamflow. The results show that precipitation and streamflow exhibited slight declining tendencies with marked seasonal variability, and that drought durations of all severity levels generally decreased with increasing time scales. At the same time scale, SSI was more stable than SPI, and both indices tended to become more stable as the time scale increased. SPI-3 and SSI-1 were identified as the optimal time scales for monitoring meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively, providing a practical basis for drought identification and early warning in karst basins. Hydrological drought lagged meteorological drought by 1–3 months, indicating a measurable propagation time that is valuable for improving drought preparedness and water resources regulation. PLS-SEM further revealed that precipitation and streamflow were the dominant direct drivers of drought development, while land cover exerted a persistent negative effect, and climate-related factors mainly influenced drought indirectly. These findings enhance the understanding of drought propagation and multi-factor coupling mechanisms in karst basins and provide scientific support for regional drought monitoring and water resources management. Full article

This study investigates the influence of large-scale climate modes on Mediterranean dust-transport variability using a newly developed Saharan Dust Flux Transport Index (SDFTI_base) for 2003–2024. Monthly and seasonal correlations show that NAO–SDFTI_base associations reach r = 0.35–0.55 across sub-regions, whereas ENSO–SDFTI_base correlations remain weaker (r = 0.10–0.25). Running correlations reveal pronounced non-stationarity, fluctuating between −0.4 and +0.6, while wavelet coherence exceeds 0.5 at 2–4-year periods during episodic teleconnection events. NAO exerts its strongest influence at sub-annual scales (0.15–0.5 years), whereas ENSO modulates dust transport primarily at interannual scales (1–3 years). Teleconnection strength is regionally heterogeneous: WestMed and EastMed exhibit the most persistent coupling, CentMed shows weak sensitivity, and BalBSea displays intermediate behaviour. NAO produces near-immediate dust-transport responses, while ENSO often leads dust-transport variability. These results provide a multi-scale dynamical framework linking Atlantic and Indo-Pacific climate variability to Mediterranean dust-transport pathways and highlight the importance of teleconnection-based diagnostics for regional climate assessment. Full article

This study assesses the suitability of ERA5 reanalysis data for representing heat sources over the southern Tibetan Plateau (STP). The results show strong agreement between ERA5 sensible heat flux (SH), atmospheric heat source (AH), and independent observations (R² > 0.998, RMSE < 0.82 W·m⁻²). Heat fluxes over the STP exhibit pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In summer, surface latent heat flux (SLHF) displays a distinct east–west gradient, with values of 140–180 W·m⁻² in the east and lower values in the west, while surface sensible heat flux (SSHF) remains uniformly low (40–80 W·m⁻²). In spring, SSHF shows a reversed west–east pattern, with a high-value center of 100–140 W·m⁻². The SH peak precedes the latent heat peak by approximately 1 h and coincides with an increase of approximately 25 W·m⁻² in mid-to-upper atmospheric heating, confirming the dominant role of SH in vertical thermal development. The atmospheric heat source (Q_atm) leads the Indian monsoon onset by 7–10 days. When Q_atm exceeds 110 W·m⁻², the probability of monsoon onset increases from 35% to 78%. A coupled altitude–moisture column forms between the Bay of Bengal “wet tongue” and enhanced STP heating, with a phase lag of approximately 12 h. On intra-seasonal timescales (10–20 days), STP heat source variability and Philippine Sea convection exhibit a clear ~12-day lagged teleconnection, characterized by a “heat source enhancement–convection intensification” dipole pattern. These results provide quantitative dynamic–thermodynamic indicators for sub-seasonal monsoon prediction. Full article

Dryland coastal–mountain systems stand at the frontline of climate change, where steep topographic gradients amplify the balance between resilience and collapse. Mount Elba—Egypt’s hyper-arid coastal–mountain reserve—embodies this fragile equilibrium, preserving a seventy-year climatic record across a landscape poised between sea and desert. Here, we present the first multi-decadal, spatio-temporal assessment (1950–2021) integrating the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-6) with satellite-derived vegetation responses (NDVI) along a ten-grid coastal–highland transect. Results reveal a pervasive drying trajectory of −0.42 SPEI units per decade, with vegetation–climate coherence (r ≈ 0.3, p < 0.05) intensifying inland, where orographic uplift magnifies hydroclimatic stress. The southern highlands emerge as an “internal drought belt,” while maritime humidity grants the coast partial refuge. These trends are not mere numerical abstractions; they trace the slow desiccation of ecosystems that once anchored biodiversity and pastoral livelihoods. A post-1990 regime shift marks the breakdown of wet-season recovery and the rise in persistent droughts, modulated by ENSO teleconnections—the first quantitative attribution of Pacific climate signals to Egypt’s coastal mountains. By coupling climatic diagnostics with ecological response, this study reframes drought as a living ecological process rather than a statistical anomaly, positioning Mount Elba as a sentinel landscape for resilience and adaptation in northeast Africa’s rapidly warming drylands. Full article

Introduction: Traditional approaches to discover teleconnections and quantify uncertainty, such as global sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo experiments, decomposition analysis, etc., are computationally intractable for large-scale process-based Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) models. This study hypothesizes that machine-learned emulator models provide “computationally efficient” algorithms for discovering teleconnections and quantifying uncertainty within and across dynamically evolving human and natural systems. Objectives: This study aims to harness machine-learned emulator models to discover the relative contributions of internal- versus external-to-the-lake teleconnected processes driving the emergence of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) and trophic regime shifts. Three objectives are pursued: (1) build emulators; (2); quantify uncertainty and (3) identify teleconnections. Methods: Six machine-learned emulator models are trained on ~3.8 million observations for ~52 features derived from 332 scenarios simulated in an integrated process-based CHANS model that predicts water quality in Missisquoi Bay of Lake Champlain under alternate hydro-climatic and nutrient management scenarios for the 2001–2047 timeframe. The regression random forest (RRF), regression LightGBM (RLGBM) and regression XGBoost (RXGB) models predict the average surface mean of ChlA. Further, the classifier random forest (CRF), classifier LightGBM (CLGBM) and classifier XGBoost (CXGB) predict four trophic states of Missisquoi Bay. Relative importance and partial dependence plots are derived from all six emulator models to quantify relative uncertainty and importance of external-to-the-lake (climatic, hydrological, nutrient management) and internal-to-the-lake (P and N sediment release) drivers of HABs. Results: RXGB (R² = 96%, 48 features) outperforms RLGBM (R² = 95%, 37 features) and RRF (R² = 93%, 20 features) in predicting the average surface mean of ChlA. CLGBM (F1 = 96.15, 4 features) outperforms CXGB (F1 = 95.66, 48 features) and CRF (F1 = 93.06, 23 features) in predicting four trophic states. We discovered that predictor variables representing snow, evaporation and transpiration dynamics teleconnect hydro-climatic processes occurring in terrestrial watersheds with the biogeochemical processes occurring in the freshwater lakes. Conclusions: The proposed approach to discover teleconnections and quantify uncertainty through machine-learned emulator models can be scaled up in different watersheds and lakes for informing integrated water governance processes. Full article

A statistical study is conducted to understand how the Mascarene High (MH) of the southwest Indian Ocean affects the springtime climate of southeastern Africa, in response to global teleconnections. A temporal index of sea-level air pressure is formed and correlated with large-scale fields of sea temperature, winds, and rainfall in the period 1980–2024. The results suggests that the MH tends to intensify and shift westward during Pacific El Niño conditions via a standing wave train in the subtropical jet stream over the South Atlantic. As this happens, anticyclonic airflow draws moisture from the Mozambique Channel and drives it onto the Kalahari plateau via low-level jets over the Limpopo and Zambezi River valleys. The Sep–Nov rainfall increases ~1 mm/day across southern Africa, accompanied by cooler temperatures and lower potential evaporation. So the spring season starts with a smaller water deficit that could favor early-planted, short-cycle crops. Outstanding questions remain on the stability of Pacific teleconnections and coupling with the Indian Ocean Dipole. Full article

Human-sourced emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the Earth’s atmosphere have been implicated in contemporary global warming, based mainly on computer modeling. Growing empirical evidence reviewed here supports the alternative hypothesis that global climate change is governed primarily by a natural climate cycle, the Antarctic Oscillation. This powerful pressure-wind-temperature cycle is energized in the Southern Ocean and teleconnects worldwide to cause global multidecadal warm periods like the present, each followed historically by a multidecadal cold period, which now appears imminent. The Antarctic Oscillation is modulated on a thousand-year schedule to create longer climate cycles, including the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, which are coupled with the rise and fall, respectively, of human civilizations. Future projection of these ancient climate rhythms enables long-term empirical climate forecasting. Although human-sourced CO₂ emissions play little role in climate change, they pose an existential threat to global biodiversity. Past mass extinctions were caused by natural CO₂ surges that acidified the ocean, killed oxygen-producing plankton, and induced global suffocation. Current human-sourced CO₂ emissions are comparable in volume but hundreds of thousands of times faster. Diverse evidence suggests that the consequent ocean acidification is destroying contemporary marine phytoplankton, corals, and calcifying algae. The resulting global oxygen deprivation could smother higher life forms, including people, by 2100 unless net human-induced CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere are ended urgently. Full article

Under global warming, persistent extreme heat events (PHEs) in China have increased significantly in both frequency and intensity, posing severe threats to agriculture and socioeconomic development. Combining observational analysis (1961–2019) and numerical simulations, this study investigates the distinct impacts of Northwest Pacific (NWP) and North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on PHEs over China. Key findings include the following: (1) PHEs exhibit heterogeneous spatial distribution, with the Yangtze-Huai River Valley as the hotspot showing the highest frequency and intensity. A regime shift occurred post-2000, marked by a threefold increase in extreme indices (+3σ to +4σ). (2) Observational analyses reveal significant but independent correlations between PHEs and SST anomalies in the tropical NWP and mid-high latitude NA. (3) Numerical experiments demonstrate that NWP warming triggers a meridional dipole response (warming in southern China vs. cooling in the north) via the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern, characterized by an eastward-retreated and southward-shifted sub-tropical high (WPSH) coupled with an intensified South Asian High (SAH). In contrast, NA warming induces uniform warming across eastern China through a Eurasian Rossby wave train that modulates the WPSH northward. (4) Thermodynamically, NWP forcing dominates via asymmetric vertical motion and advection processes, while NA forcing primarily enhances large-scale subsidence and shortwave radiation. This study elucidates region-specific oceanic drivers of extreme heat, advancing mechanistic understanding for improved heatwave predictability. Full article

Statistical cluster analysis applied to monthly 1–100 m ocean temperatures reveals El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dipole patterns with a leading mode having opposing centers of action across the dateline and tropical east Pacific. We focus on the La Niña cold phase and study its impact on the Caribbean climate over the period of 1980–2024. East dipole time scores are used to identify composite years, and anomaly patterns are calculated for Jan-Jun and Jul-Dec. Convective responses over the Caribbean exhibit seasonal contrasts: dry winter–spring and wet summer–autumn. Trade winds and currents across the southern Caribbean weaken and lead to anomalous warming of upper ocean temperatures. Sustained coastal upwelling off Peru and Ecuador during east La Niña is teleconnected with easterly wind shear and tropical cyclogenesis over the Caribbean during summer, leading to costly impacts. This ocean–atmosphere coupling is quite different from the more common central Pacific ENSO dipole. Full article

This study investigates teleconnections between rainfall in the Ogooué River Basin (ORB) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical ocean basins. The Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) is used to determine coupled patterns of SST in the tropical oceans and rainfall in the ORB, depicting regions and modes of SST dynamics that influence rainfall in the ORB. The application of MCA to rainfall and SST fields results in three coupled patterns with squared covariance fractions of 84.5%, 76.5%, and 77.5% for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian tropical basins, respectively. Computation of the correlations of the Savitzky–Golay-filtered resulting expansion coefficients reached 0.65, 0.5 and 0.72, respectively. The SST variation modes identified in this study can be related to the Atlantic Meridional Mode for the tropical Atlantic and the El Niño Southern Oscillation for the tropical Pacific. Over the Indian Ocean, it is a homogeneous mode over the entire basin, instead of the popular dipole mode. Then, the time-dependent correlation method is used to remove any ambiguity on the relationships established from the MCA. Full article

The regularity of rainfall seasonality is very important for vegetation growth, the livelihood of the population, agricultural production, and ecosystem sustainability. Changes in precipitation and its extremes have been widely reported; however, the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall seasonality and their underlying mechanisms are less understood. Here, we analyzed the changes in rainfall seasonality and possible teleconnection mechanisms in the eastern China monsoon region during 1981–2022, with a special focus on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Niño Modoki (ENSO_M), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Our results show that due to the changes in rainfall concentration, rainfall magnitude, or both, rainfall seasonality has developed in the northern China (NC, 0.15 × 10⁻³ yr⁻¹) and central China (CC, 0.07 × 10⁻³ yr⁻¹) monsoon regions, and weakened in the northeastern China (NEC, −0.08 × 10⁻³ yr⁻¹) and southern China (SC, −0.15 × 10⁻³ yr⁻¹) monsoon regions during the recent decades. The large-scale circulation and SST anomalies induced by cold or warm phases of the IOD, ENSO_M, and (or) ENSO can explain the enhanced seasonality in the NC and CC monsoon regions and weakened seasonality in the NEC and SC monsoon regions. The wavelet coherence analysis further shows that the dominated climatic factors for rainfall seasonality changes are different in the CC, NC, SC, and NEC monsoon regions, and that rainfall seasonality is also affected by the coupling of the IOD, ENSO_M, and ENSO. Our results highlight that the IOD, ENSO_M, and ENSO are important climatic causes for rainfall seasonality changes in the eastern China monsoon region. Full article

In this work, the preindustrial control (piControl) and Historical experiments results from climatic Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are analyzed for their ability to predict the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the principal component method, it is shown that the Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO), of which the ENSO is an element, is the main mode of interannual variability of planetary anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) and atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) in the ensemble of 50 CMIP6 models. It turns out that the CMIP6 ensemble of models reproduces the planetary structure of the GAO and its west–east dynamics with a period of approximately 3.7 years. The models showed that the GAO combines ENSO teleconnections with the tropics of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and with temperate and high latitudes. To predict strong El Niño and La Niña events, we used a predictor index (PGAO) obtained earlier from observation data and reanalyses. The predictive ability of the PGAO is based on the west–east propagation of planetary structures of SAT and SLP anomalies characteristic of the GAO. Those CMIP6 models have been found that reproduce well the west–east spread of the GAO, with El Niño and La Niña being phases of this process. Thanks to this, these events can be predicted with approximately a year’s lead time, thereby overcoming the so-called spring predictability barrier (SPB) of the ENSO. Thus, the influence of global anomalies of SAT and SLP on the ENSO is shown, taking into account that it may increase the reliability of the early forecast of El Niño and La Niña events. Full article

The interaction between soil moisture (SM) and vegetation dynamics has been proven in previous studies. In situ measurements have provided reliable data to investigate and validate the time effect in different zones, which is important in the hydrology and agriculture fields. There were 845 SM in situ monitoring measurements utilized with the correlation between SM and vegetation across various soil depths and climate zones in China. The impact of climate and teleconnection factors on SM and the leaf area index (LAI) are also discussed. The results indicate that SM increases from northwest to southeast in China. The time lag responses of SM to temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and sunshine duration are 0–3 days, 3–7 days, 1–3 days, and 3–15 days, respectively. The LAI is most strongly correlated with the climate of the current month. When the LAI leads SM, a negative correlation is observed, whereas a positive correlation is observed when SM leads the LAI. This proves that vegetation growth restricts the increase in SM, and soil drying further restricts the growth of vegetation. There was a response time of 2–4 months between the LAI and SM. The effect of vegetation and deeper SM was significant in the arid zone, while they were coupled with shallow SM in the humid zone. Additionally, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) showed a significant positive correlation with SM in 2015–2016 with signals of 9–14 months. The results provide support for balancing the contradiction between future vegetation restoration and water resource scarcity. Full article

The results of a piControl experiment investigating general circulation models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were examined. The global interannual variability in the monthly surface temperature (ST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies was considered. The amplitudes of the fluctuations in the anomalies of these meteorological fields between opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were calculated. It was shown that most CMIP6 models reproduced fluctuations in the ST and SLP anomalies between El Niño and La Niña not only in the equatorial Pacific, but also throughout the tropics, as well as in the middle and high latitudes. Some of the CMIP6 models reproduced the global structures of the ST and SLP anomaly oscillations quite accurately between opposite phases of ENSO, as previously determined from observational data and reanalyses. It was found that the models AS-RCEC TaiESM1, CAMS CAMS-CSM1-0, CAS FGOALS-f3-L, CMCC CMCC-ESM2, KIOST KIOST-ESM, NASA GISS-E2-1-G, NCAR CESM2-WACCM-FV2, and NCC NorCPM1 reproduced strong ENSO teleconnections in regions beyond the tropical Pacific. Full article

The westerly circulation and the monsoon circulation are the two major atmospheric circulation systems affecting the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which have significant impacts on climate and environmental changes in the middle latitudes. However, until now, people’s understanding of the long-term paleoenvironmental changes in the westerly- and monsoon-controlled areas in China’s middle latitudes is not uniform, and the phase relationship between the two at different time scales is also controversial, especially the exception to the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” paradigm in global warming between the two. Based on the existing literature data published, integrated paleoenvironmental records, and comprehensive simulation results in recent years, this study systematically reviews the climate and environmental changes in the two major circulation regions in the mid-latitudes of China since the Middle Pleistocene, with a focus on exploring the phase relationship between the two systems at different time scales and its influencing mechanism. Through the reanalysis and comparative analysis of the existing data, we conclude that the interaction and relationship between the two circulation systems are relatively strong and close during the warm periods, but relatively weak during the cold periods. From the perspective of orbital, suborbital, and millennium time scales, the phase relationship between the westerly and Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulations shows roughly in-phase, out-of-phase, and anti-phase transitions, respectively. There are significant differences between the impacts of the westerly and ASM circulations on the middle-latitude regions of northwest China, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and eastern China. However, under the combined influence of varied environmental factors such as BHLSR (boreal high-latitude solar radiation), SST (sea surface temperature), AMOC (north Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), NHI (Northern Hemisphere ice volume), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone), WPSH (western Pacific subtropical high), TIOA (tropical Indian Ocean anomaly), ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), CGT/SRP (global teleconnection/Silk Road pattern), etc., there is a complex and close coupling relationship between the two, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider their “multi-factor’s joint-action” mechanism and impact, while, in general, the dynamic mechanisms driving the changes of the westerly and ASM circulations are not the same at different time scales, such as orbital, suborbital, centennial to millennium, and decadal to interannual, which also leads to the formation of different types of phase relationships between the two at different time scales. Future studies need to focus on the impact of this “multi-factor linkage mechanism” and “multi-phase relationship” in distinguishing the interaction between the westerly and ASM circulation systems in terms of orbital, suborbital, millennium, and sub-millennium time scales. Full article