Search Results (16)

Aviation contrails significantly impact climate via radiative forcing, but their segmentation in thermal infrared satellite images is challenged by thin-layer structures, blurry edges, and cirrus cloud interference. We propose MFcontrail, a deep learning model integrating multi-axis attention and frequency-domain enhancement for precise contrail segmentation. It uses a MaxViT encoder to capture long-range spatial features, a FreqFusion decoder to preserve high-frequency edge details, and an edge-aware loss to refine boundary accuracy. Evaluations on OpenContrails and Landsat-8 datasets show that MFcontrail outperforms state-of-the-art methods: compared with DeepLabV3+, it achieves a 5.03% higher F1-score and 5.91% higher IoU on OpenContrails, with 3.43% F1-score and 4.07% IoU gains on Landsat-8. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of frequency-domain enhancement (contributing 69.4% of IoU improvement) and other key components. This work provides a high-precision tool for aviation climate research, highlighting frequency-domain strategies’ value in satellite cloud image analysis. Full article

Aircraft contrails exhibit optical properties similar to those of natural high-level clouds (HLCs) and also form persistent cirrus cloudiness. This paper outlines a methodology for detecting and identifying contrails based on the joint analysis of aircraft trajectories (ADS-B monitoring), the vertical profiles of meteorological parameters (radiosonde observation (RAOB) and ERA5 reanalysis), and polarization laser sensing data obtained with the matrix polarization lidar. The potential application of ERA5 reanalysis for determining contrail drift parameters (azimuth, speed, distance, duration, and time of the contrail appearance above the lidar) and interpreting atmospheric polarization laser sensing data in terms of the presence of crystalline ice particles and the assessment of the degree of their horizontal orientation is demonstrated. In the examined case (6 February 2023; Boeing 777-F contrail; flight altitude of 10.3 km; HLC altitude range registered with the lidar of 9.5–10.3 km), the difference in the times of appearance of the contrail over the lidar, calculated from RAOB and ERA5 data, did not exceed 10 min. The difference in the wind direction was 12°, with a wind speed difference of 2 m/s, and the drift distance was approximately the same at about 30 km. The demonstrated technique will allow the experimental dataset of contrail optical and microphysical characteristics to be enhanced and empirical relationships between these characteristics and meteorological quantities to be established. Full article

Contrails created by aircraft are a very hot topic today because they contribute to the warming of the atmosphere. Air traffic density is very high, and current forecasts predict a further significant increase. Increased air traffic volume is associated with an increased occurrence of contrails and induced cirrus clouds. The scientific level of contrails and their impact on the Earth’s climate is surprisingly low. The scientific studies published so far are mainly based on global models, in situ measurements, and satellite observations of contrails. The research is based on observations of contrails in flight paths in the vicinity of Děčín and Prague, and the collection of flight and meteorological data. It focused on the influence of the meteorological situation on the formation of persistent contrails. The collected data on contrails and meteorological variables were statistically processed using machine learning methods for classification models. Several models were developed to predict and simulate the properties of contrails as a function of given air traffic and meteorological conditions. The Random Forests model produced the best results. Dependencies between meteorological conditions, formation, and contrail lifetime were found. The aim of the study was to identify the possibility of using available meteorological data to predict persistent contrails. Full article

As it becomes increasingly necessary to reduce aviation-related emissions, condensation trails present an additional challenge. These are arguably responsible for the largest contribution to radiative forcing in the sector, but the phenomenon is still not as well understood as those involving other agents. The present study employs a large eddy simulation (LES) parametrization to validate a previously developed contrail model in order to assess the feasibility of a multi-model approach to increase confidence in simulations of contrail cirrus formation. Subsequently, the computational model was used to analyze the impact of e-fuels in contrail dynamics, resulting in reductions of over 7% and 14%, respectively, in average contrail lifetime and optical depth, with such improvements increasing if higher blending limits are utilized. This confirmed the potential for e-fuels as the most viable option for near-future large-scale implementations among all sustainable aviation fuel alternatives. Full article

Ambient weather conditions strongly impact contrail formation and persistence. The implementation of contrail avoidance and mitigation strategies, therefore, requires regional and altitude-dependent information on the frequency of contrail occurrence. To this end, we have developed a method to quantify the potential contrail cover based on 10 years of high-resolution reanalysis of climatology and weather data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). We use the Schmidt–Appleman threshold temperature for contrail formation and additionally select thresholds for the relative humidity to evaluate the occurrence of persistent contrails and assess their regional and seasonal variation. We find a potential contrail cirrus cover of 10% to 20% above Europe at higher altitudes of 200 and 250 hPa in the 10-year climatology and a weak seasonal variation. At lower altitudes, near 300 hPa, a steep onset and a high potential contrail cirrus cover of 20% is found in late fall and in winter, decreasing to 2% potential contrail cirrus cover in summer. In comparison to ECMWF data, evaluations using data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) show a significantly lower potential contrail cirrus cover. Our results help to investigate the seasonal and altitude dependence of contrail mitigation strategies, in particular for warming nighttime contrails that contribute strongly to the total climate impact from aviation. Full article

One possibility to reduce the climate impact of aviation is the avoidance of climate-sensitive regions, which is synonymous with climate-optimised flight planning. Those regions can be identified by algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) for nitrogen oxides (NO${}_x$), water vapour (H${}_2$O) as well as contrail cirrus, which provide a measure of climate effects associated with corresponding emissions. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of reducing the aviation-induced climate impact via ozone (O${}_3$) formation (resulting from NO${}_x$ emissions), when solely using O${}_3$ aCCFs for the aircraft trajectory optimisation strategy. The effectiveness of such a strategy and the associated potential mitigation of climate effects is explored by using the chemistry–climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy) with various submodels. A summer and winter day, characterised by a large spatial variability of the O${}_3$ aCCFs, are selected. A one-day air traffic simulation is performed in the European airspace on those selected days to obtain both cost-optimised and climate-optimised aircraft trajectories, which more specifically minimised a NO${}_x$-induced climate effect of O${}_3$ (O${}_3$ aCCFs). The air traffic is laterally and vertically re-routed separately to enable an evaluation of the influences of the horizontal and vertical pattern of O${}_3$ aCCFs. The resulting aviation NO${}_x$ emissions are then released in an atmospheric chemistry–climate simulation to simulate the contribution of these NO${}_x$ emissions to atmospheric O${}_3$ and the resulting O${}_3$ change. Within this study, we use O${}_3$-RF as a proxy for climate impact. The results confirm that the climate-optimised flights lead to lower O${}_3$-RF compared to the cost-optimised flights, although the aCCFs cannot reproduce all aspects of the significant impact of the synoptic situation on the transport of emitted NO${}_x$. Overall, the climate impact is higher for the selected summer day than for the selected winter day. Lateral re-routing shows a greater potential to reduce climate impact compared to vertical re-routing for the chosen flight altitude. We find that while applying the O${}_3$ aCCFs in trajectory optimisation can reduce the climate impact, there are certain discrepancies in the prediction of O${}_3$ impact from aviation NO${}_x$ emissions, as seen for the summer day. Although the O${}_3$ aCCFs concept is a rough simplification in estimating the climate impact of a local NO${}_x$ emission, it enables a reasonable first estimate. Further research is required to better describe the O${}_3$ aCCFs allowing an improved estimate in the Average Temperature Response (ATR) of O${}_3$ from aviation NO${}_x$ emissions. A general improvement in the scientific understanding of non-CO${}_2$ aviation effects could make climate-optimised flight planning practically feasible. Full article

Persistent contrails and contrail cirrus are estimated to have a larger impact on climate than all CO${}_2$ emissions from global aviation since the introduction of jet engines. However, the measure for this impact, the effective radiative forcing (ERF) or radiative forcing (RF), suffers from uncertainties that are much larger than those for CO${}_2$. Despite ongoing research, the so called level of scientific understanding has not improved since the 1999 IPCC Special Report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. In this paper, the role of weather variability as a major component of the uncertainty range of contrail cirrus RF is examined. Using 10 years of MOZAIC flights and ERA-5 reanalysis data, we show that natural weather variability causes large variations in the instantaneous radiative forcing (iRF) of persistent contrails, which is a major source for uncertainty. Most contrails (about 80%) have a small positive iRF of up to 20 W m${}^{-2}$. IRF exceeds 20 W m${}^{-2}$ in about 10% of all cases but these have a disproportionally large climate impact, the remaining 10% have a negative iRF. The distribution of iRF values is heavily skewed towards large positive values that show an exponential decay. Monte Carlo experiments reveal the difficulty of determining a precise long-term mean from measurement or campaign data alone. Depending on the chosen sample size, calculated means scatter considerably, which is caused exclusively by weather variability. Considering that many additional natural sources of variation have been deliberately neglected in the present examination, the results suggest that there is a fundamental limit to the precision with which the RF and ERF of contrail cirrus can be determined. In our opinion, this does not imply a low level of scientific understanding; rather the scientific understanding of contrails and contrail cirrus has grown considerably over recent decades. Only the determination of global and annual mean RF and ERF values is still difficult and will probably be so for the coming decades, if not forever. The little precise knowledge of the RF and ERF values is, therefore, no argument to postpone actions to mitigate contrail’s warming impact. Full article

Condensation trails and contrail cirrus are currently responsible for the largest contribution to radiative forcing in the aviation sector, yet they have lifetimes of only a few hours. Their much shorter lifetimes when compared to long-lived greenhouse gases makes them ideal for the implementation of short-term mitigation measures. The use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) instead of regular jet fuel has been associated to a reduction in soot particle emissions, leading to a decrease in initial ice crystal numbers in contrails, but also to a possible increase in contrail frequency and contrail ice mass due to higher water vapor emissions. A computational model was used to explore the influence of the variations of soot and water vapor emissions when using SAF and SAF blends in the formation of contrails, their ensuing optical depth, and their lifespan. An increase in frequency of contrails was found in cases where regular jet fuel emissions were close to threshold conditions. Reductions in contrail lifetime of up to 76% were found for contrails with lifetimes of over 30 min, while decreases in optical depth of up to 37% were found for contrails formed in air with a relative humidity of 42% or above. This work provides a better understanding of the potential of SAF as a mitigation measure against the impact of contrails on global warming. Full article

The PARSIFAL project (Prandtlplane ARchitecture for the Sustainable Improvement of Future AirpLanes) aims to promote an innovative box-wing aircraft: the PrandtlPlane. Aircraft developed adopting this configuration are expected to achieve a payload capability higher than common single aisle analogues (e.g., Airbus 320 and Boeing 737 families), without any increase in the overall dimensions. We estimated the exhaust emissions from the PrandtlPlane and compared the corresponding impacts to those of a conventional reference aircraft, in terms of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature Potential (GTP), on two time-horizons and accounted for regional sensitivity. We considered carbon dioxide, carbonaceous and sulphate aerosols, nitrogen oxides and related ozone production, methane degradation and nitrate aerosols formation, contrails, and contrail cirrus. Overall, the introduction of the PrandtlPlane is expected to bring a considerable reduction of climate change in all the source regions considered, on both the time-horizons examined. Moreover, fuel consumption is expected to be reduced by 20%, as confirmed through high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. Sensitivity of data, models, and metrics are detailed. Impact reduction and mitigation strategies are discussed, as well as the gaps to be addressed in order to develop a comprehensive Life Cycle Assessment on aircraft emissions. Full article

Aviation faces increasing pressure not only to reduce fuel burn, and; therefore, CO₂ emissions, but also to provide technical solutions for an overall climate impact minimization. To combine both, a concept for the enhancement of an aircraft engine by steam injection with inflight water recovery is being developed. The so-called Water-Enhanced Turbofan (WET) concept promises a significant reduction of CO₂ emissions, NO_x emissions, and contrail formation. Representative missions for an A320-type aircraft using the proposed new engine were calculated. Applying a first-order one-dimensional climate assessment prospects the reduction of more than half of the Global Warming Potential over one hundred years, compared to an evolutionarily improved aero-engine. If CO₂-neutrally produced sustainable aviation fuels are used, climate impact could be reduced by 93% compared to today’s aircraft. The evaluation is a first estimate of effects based on preliminary design studies and should provide a starting point for discussion in the scientific community, implying the need for research, especially on the formation mechanisms and radiation properties of potential contrails from the comparatively cold exhaust gases of the WET engine. Full article

Contrail cirrus has been emphasized as the largest individual component of aircraft climate impact, yet respective assessments have been based mainly on conventional radiative forcing calculations. As demonstrated in previous research work, individual impact components can have different efficacies, i.e., their effectiveness to induce surface temperature changes may vary. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) has been proposed as a superior metric to compare individual impact contributions, as it may, to a considerable extent, include the effect of efficacy differences. Recent climate model simulations have provided a first estimate of contrail cirrus ERF, which turns out to be much smaller, by about 65%, than the conventional radiative forcing of contrail cirrus. The main reason for the reduction is that natural clouds exhibit a substantially lower radiative impact in the presence of contrail cirrus. Hence, the new result suggests a smaller role of contrail cirrus in the context of aviation climate impact (including proposed mitigation measures) than assumed so far. However, any conclusion in this respect should be drawn carefully as long as no direct simulations of the surface temperature response to contrail cirrus are available. Such simulations are needed in order to confirm the power of ERF for assessing contrail cirrus efficacy. Full article

Persistent contrails and contrail cirrus are responsible for a large part of aviation induced radiative forcing. A considerable fraction of their warming effect could be eliminated by diverting only a quite small fraction of flight paths, namely those that produce the highest individual radiative forcing (iRF). In order to make this a viable mitigation strategy it is necessary that aviation weather forecast is able to predict (i) when and where contrails are formed, (ii) which of these are persistent, and (iii) how large the iRF of those contrails would be. Here we study several data bases together with weather data in order to see whether such a forecast would currently be possible. It turns out that the formation of contrails can be predicted with some success, but there are problems to predict contrail persistence. The underlying reason for this is that while the temperature field is quite good in weather prediction and climate simulations with specified dynamics, this is not so for the relative humidity in general and for ice supersaturation in particular. However we find that the weather model shows the dynamical peculiarities that are expected for ice supersaturated regions where strong contrails are indeed found in satellite data. This justifies some hope that the prediction of strong contrails may be possible via general regression involving the dynamical state of the ambient atmosphere. Full article

Aviation can reduce its climate impact by controlling its CO₂-emission and non-CO₂ effects, e.g., aviation-induced contrail-cirrus and ozone caused by nitrogen oxide emissions. One option is the implementation of operational measures that aim to avoid those atmospheric regions that are in particular sensitive to non-CO₂ aviation effects, e.g., where persistent contrails form. The quantitative estimates of mitigation potentials of such climate-optimized aircraft trajectories are required, when working towards sustainable aviation. The results are presented from a comprehensive modelling approach when aiming to identify such climate-optimized aircraft trajectories. The overall concept relies on a multi-dimensional environmental change function concept, which is capable of providing climate impact information to air traffic management (ATM). Estimates on overall climate impact reduction from a one-day case study are presented that rely on the best estimate for climate impact information. Specific weather situation that day, containing regions with high contrail impact, results in a potential reduction of total climate impact, by more than 40%, when considering CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects, associated with an increase of fuel by about 0.5%. The climate impact reduction per individual alternative trajectory shows a strong variation and, hence, also the mitigation potential for an analyzed city pair, depending on atmospheric characteristics along the flight corridor as well as flight altitude. The robustness of proposed climate-optimized trajectories is assessed by using a range of different climate metrics. A more sustainable ATM needs to integrate comprehensive environmental impacts and associated forecast uncertainties into route optimization in order to identify robust eco-efficient trajectories. Full article

Contrail cirrus introduce a short-lived but significant climate forcing that could be mitigated by small changes in aircraft cruising altitudes. This paper extends a recent study to evaluate the efficacy of several vertical flight diversion strategies to mitigate contrail climate forcing, and estimates impacts to air traffic management (ATM). We use six one-week periods of flight track data in the airspace above Japan (between May 2012 and March 2013), and simulate contrails using the contrail cirrus prediction model (CoCiP). Previous studies have predominantly optimised a diversion of every contrail-forming flight to minimise its formation or radiative forcing. However, our results show that these strategies produce a suboptimal outcome because most contrails have a short lifetime, and some have a cooling effect. Instead, a strategy that reroutes 15.3% of flights to avoid long-lived warming contrails, while allowing for cooling contrails, reduces the contrail energy forcing (EF_contrail) by 105% [91.8, 125%] with a total fuel penalty of 0.70% [0.66, 0.73%]. A minimum EF_total strategy (contrails + CO₂), diverting 20.1% of flights, reduces the EF_contrail by the same magnitude but also reduces the total fuel consumption by 0.40% [0.31, 0.47%]. For the diversion strategies explored, between 9% and 14% of diversions lead to a loss of separation standards between flights, demonstrating a modest scale of ATM impacts. These results show that small changes in flight altitudes are an opportunity for aviation to significantly and rapidly reduce its effect on the climate. Full article

The WeCare project (Utilizing Weather information for Climate efficient and eco efficient future aviation), an internal project of the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR), aimed at finding solutions for reducing the climate impact of aviation based on an improved understanding of the atmospheric impact from aviation by making use of measurements and modeling approaches. WeCare made some important contributions to advance the scientific understanding in the area of atmospheric and air transportation research. We characterize contrail properties, show that the aircraft type significantly influences these properties, and how contrail-cirrus interacts with natural cirrus. Aviation NO_x emissions lead to ozone formation and we show that the strength of the ozone enhancement varies, depending on where within a weather pattern NO_x is emitted. These results, in combination with results on the effects of aerosol emissions on low cloud properties, give a revised view on the total radiative forcing of aviation. The assessment of a fleet of strut-braced wing aircraft with an open rotor is investigated and reveals the potential to significantly reduce the climate impact. Intermediate stop operations have the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption. However, we find that, if only optimized for fuel use, they will have an increased climate impact, since non-CO₂ effects compensate the reduced warming from CO₂ savings. Avoiding climate sensitive regions has a large potential in reducing climate impact at relatively low costs. Taking advantage of a full 3D optimization has a much better eco-efficiency than lateral re-routings, only. The implementation of such operational measures requires many more considerations. Non-CO₂ aviation effects are not considered in international agreements. We showed that climate-optimal routing could be achieved, if market-based measures were in place, which include these non-CO₂ effects. An alternative measure to foster climate-optimal routing is the closing of air spaces, which are very climate-sensitive. Although less effective than an unconstrained optimization with respect to climate, it still has a significant potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation. By combining atmospheric and air transportation research, we assess climate mitigation measures, aiming at providing information to aviation stakeholders and policy-makers to make aviation more climate compatible. Full article