Search Results (143)

As global climate change intensifies, extreme climate events are becoming more frequent, presenting significant challenges to socioeconomic systems and ecosystems. Northeast China, a region highly sensitive to climate change, has been profoundly impacted by compound drought and heat extremes (CDHEs), affecting agriculture, society, and the economy. To evaluate the characteristics and evolution of summer CDHEs in this region, this study analyzed observational data from 81 meteorological stations (1961–2020) and developed a Standardized Temperature–Precipitation Index (STPI) using the Copula joint probability method. The STPI’s effectiveness in characterizing compound drought and heat conditions was validated against historical records. Using the constructed STPI, this study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of CDHEs. The Theil–Sen median trend analysis, Mann–Kendall trend tests, and the frequency of CDHEs were employed to examine drought and heatwave patterns and their influence on compound events. The findings demonstrated an increase in the severity of compound drought and heat events over time. Although the STPI exhibited a slight interannual decline, its values remained above −2.0, indicating the continued intensification of these events in the study area. Most of the stations showed a non-significant decline in the Standardized Precipitation Index and a significant rise in the Standardized Temperature Index, indicating that rising temperatures primarily drive the increasing severity of compound drought and heat events. The 1990s marked a turning point with a significant increase in the frequency, severity, and spatial extent of these events. Full article

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have shown a marked increase under global warming, posing significant challenges to crop productivity. This review systematically categorizes key input and output datasets utilized across diverse research frameworks that investigate the impacts of CDHW stress on crops. The data are organized across multiple spatial scales—from site-specific and field-level measurements to regional and global assessments—and span various temporal dimensions, including historical records, present conditions, and future projections. These datasets include laboratory experiments, field trials, Earth system observations, statistical records, and model simulations. By employing a structured and integrative approach, this review aims to facilitate efficient data access and utilization for researchers. Ultimately, it supports improved data integration, cross-study comparability, and cross-scale synthesis, thereby advancing the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural systems. Full article

Refugee settlements are often positioned around natural borders, which often have a heightened danger of environmental hazards. Here, we aim to better understand why settlements are in environmentally vulnerable land and what social and physical factors contribute to this phenomenon. To do this, we present a holistic narrative that maps climate threats among displaced populations in Cox’s Bazar district, Bangladesh, while contextualizing environmental vulnerability by incorporating historical and social constraints. Using ArcGIS, an online mapping program, we illustrate the overlap between different climatic events and how these vulnerabilities compound and intensify one another. We also discuss the history of natural migration and settlement pertaining to the physical landscape and the sociopolitical reasons refugees remain in environmentally vulnerable areas. Overall, we find an emerging trend that may be broadly applicable to instances of forced displacement; physical settlement locations near international borders demarcated by landforms may be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change and extreme climate events. However, physical, social, and political reasons often cement these locations. Recommendations include enhancing the resilience of refugee camps through infrastructure improvements, sustainable land management, and reforestation efforts, which would benefit both the environment and local and refugee communities. Full article

Global climate change has increased the frequency of compound drought–heatwave events (CDHEs), seriously threatening tropical forest ecosystems. However, due to the complex structure of natural tropical forests, related research remains limited. To address this, we focused on rubber plantations on Hainan Island, which have simpler structures, to explore the impacts of CDHEs on their primary productivity. We used Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses to select the optimal combination of drought and heatwave indices. Then, we constructed a Compound Drought–Heatwave Index (CDHI) using Copula functions to describe the temporal patterns of CDHEs. Finally, we applied a Bayes–Copula conditional probability model to estimate the probability of GPP loss under CDHE conditions. The main findings are as follows: (1) The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI-1) formed the best index combination. (2) The CDHI successfully identified typical CDHEs in 2001, 2003–2005, 2010, 2015–2016, and 2020. (3) Temporally, CDHEs significantly increased the probability of GPP loss in April and May (0.58 and 0.64, respectively), while the rainy season showed a reverse trend due to water buffering (lowest in October, at 0.19). (4) Spatially, the northwest region showed higher GPP loss probabilities, likely due to topographic uplift. This study reveals how tropical plantations respond to compound climate extremes and provides theoretical support for the monitoring and management of tropical ecosystems. Full article

Coastal regions are increasingly threatened by compound flooding due to the increasing intensities of storm surges and rainfall under climate change. However, relevant research has been limited because significant amounts of data, scenarios, and computations are often required to evaluate long-term variations in compound flood risk. In this study, a framework was proposed through efficient hydraulic simulations and a consequence-based statistical method using data projected under different general circulation models (GCMs). The analysis focuses on analyzing the interdecadal trends of compound flood risk for a coastal area in southwestern Taiwan across a baseline period and four future periods in the short-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), mid-to-long-term (2061–2080), and long-term (2081–2100). Although discrepancies exist in the short term, the results show that the values of the annual maximum flood area exhibit an increasing pattern in the future for all GCMs by increasing about 27.8% on average at the end of the 21st century. This means that, under the same flood areas given in the baseline period, the return periods will decrease, and flood events will occur more frequently in the future. This framework can be extended to other regions to assess the impacts of compound flooding with different geographical and meteorological conditions. Full article

High ozone (O₃) concentrations are frequently recorded in São Paulo Megacity, with extreme O₃ levels often linked to high temperatures and heatwaves, phenomena expected to intensify with climate change. The co-occurrence of extreme O₃ and heatwaves poses amplified risks to environmental and human health. Hence, this study aims to analyze individual and compound extreme O₃ and heatwave events and assess the associated atmospheric patterns. Hourly O₃ and temperature (T) data from 20 sites (1998–2023) were used to calculate the maximum daily 8 h average O₃ (MD8A-O₃) and maximum daily temperature (Tmax). The Mann–Kendall test identified trends for these variables. The 90th percentile of data from September to March defined thresholds for extreme events. Events were classified as extreme when MD8A-O₃ and Tmax exceeded their thresholds for at least six consecutive days. ERA5 data were used to evaluate atmospheric patterns during these events. The results show positive trends in MD8A-O₃ in 62% of sites, with values exceeding WHO Air Quality Guidelines, alongside positive Tmax trends in 90% of sites. Over the study period, four compound events, seven heatwaves, and four extreme O₃ events were identified. Compound and individual events were associated with the South America Subtropical Anticyclone and positive temperature anomalies. Individual O₃ events were linked to cold anomalies south of 30° S and positive geopotential height anomalies at 850 hPa. These findings highlight the increasing occurrence of extreme O₃ and heatwaves in São Paulo and their atmospheric drivers, offering insights to enhance awareness, forecasting, and policy responses to mitigate health and environmental impacts. Full article

Global supply chains have faced unprecedented disruptions in recent years, ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to geopolitical tensions and climate-induced shocks. These events have exposed structural vulnerabilities in operational models overly optimized for efficiency at the expense of resilience and sustainability. This conceptual paper proposes an integrated framework linking resilience enablers, post-pandemic operational strategies, and sustainability outcomes. Through a synthesis of the interdisciplinary literature across operations management, sustainability science, institutional theory, and organizational behavior, we develop typologies of operational responses—including agile, lean–green, circular, and decentralized models—and connect them to broader Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Drawing on systems thinking and the Triple Bottom Line framework, we present a conceptual model that outlines causal relationships between resilience drivers, adaptive operational strategies, and long-term sustainable performance. The paper further discusses policy implications for public and private sectors, offering insights for global sustainability governance. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to empirically test and refine the model through multi-method approaches. This study contributes to theory by reconceptualizing sustainable operations in the context of compound global disruptions and offers a normative direction for future scholarship and practice. Full article

Detection and analysis of hydroclimatic trends are crucial for quantifying climate change, global warming, and their potential impacts. This study investigates hydroclimatic trends over the South African Sugar Belt (SASB) under a changing climate using nonparametric and innovative trend detection techniques for the periods 1980–2022, 2025–2050, and 2050–2080. Statistical tests, including the original and modified Mann–Kendall test, sequential Mann–Kendall test, and Innovative Trend Analysis were performed to detect trends and changes in hydroclimatic variables over the SASB’s dryland and irrigated regions. An 18-month low-pass filter was applied to 19 GCMs of the CMIP6, which were downscaled to a local setting. The results indicate contrasting rainfall trends: a positive trend in the dryland region and a negative trend in the irrigated region from 1980 to 2022. Under low- (SSP2–4.5) and high-emission (SSP5–8.5) scenarios, both regions exhibited a significant drying trend from 1980 to 2080, with the irrigated region drying and warming faster than the dryland region. Mann–Kendall tests and Innovative Trend Analysis revealed robust positive trends in surface air temperatures across the SASB, with even stronger trends projected for the future, potentially promoting water loss in the area. Compound dry–hot events were also projected to cause significant socioeconomic impacts in the near and distant future. Future studies can explore nonparametric and monotonic trend detection and analysis for water quality parameters in the SASB under a changing climate. Full article

Climate change is reducing agricultural productivity through altered weather patterns and extreme events, potentially decreasing yields by 10–25%. Biostimulants like pyroglutamic acid can enhance plant tolerance to water stress, but their rapid degradation in the soil limits effectiveness. Encapsulation in alginate matrices promises to be a good solution, protecting the compound and enabling controlled release. This study reports, for the first time, that encapsulated pyroglutamic acid markedly enhances drought tolerance in tomato and maize plants. The encapsulation strategy reduces effective concentration by an order of magnitude while significantly improving water use efficiency, photo-synthetic performance, and overall stress resilience. These findings demonstrate that alginate-based encapsulation substantially increases biostimulant uptake and efficacy, providing a novel and efficient strategy to mitigate water stress in crops, with important implications for climate-resilient agriculture. Two encapsulation methods for generating the alginate microcapsules are compared: ionic gelation with Nisco^® system and the electrospray technique. Full article

Reservoir operations play a pivotal role in shaping the flow regime of the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB), where two major reservoirs exert substantial hydrological influence. Despite ongoing efforts to manage water resources effectively, current operational strategies often lack the adaptability required to address the compounded uncertainties of climate change and increasing water demands. This research addresses this critical gap by developing an optimization model for reservoir operation that explicitly incorporates climate variability. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was employed using four fundamental inputs: reservoir inflow, storage, rainfall, and water demands. Daily resolution data from 2000 to 2012 were used, with 2005–2012 selected for training due to the inclusion of multiple extreme hydrological events, including the 2011 flood, which enriched the model’s learning capability. The period 2000–2004 was reserved for testing to independently assess model generalizability. Eight types of membership functions (MFs) were tested to determine the most suitable configuration, with the trapezoidal MF selected for its favorable performance. The optimized models achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.43 and 0.47, R² values of 0.59 and 0.50, and RMSE values of 77.64 and 89.32 for Bhumibol and Sirikit Dams, respectively. The model enables the evaluation of both dam operations and climate change impacts on downstream discharges. Key findings highlight the importance of adaptive reservoir management by identifying optimal water release timings and corresponding daily release-storage ratios. The proposed approach contributes a novel, data-driven framework that enhances decision-making for integrated water resources management under changing climatic conditions. Full article

In the South Pacific, an increase in the frequency of climate hazards has resulted in worsened human and animal health outcomes, revealing the need for strengthened early warning to increase hazard preparedness. As Vanuatu is one of the most at-risk countries to natural disasters, an early warning system (EWS) for climate hazards is essential to support industries and communities. Notably, climate variability has been found to exacerbate communicable disease burden and compromise livestock health and productivity; however, forecasting of such hazards and their compounding effects has not been developed in Vanuatu. Therefore, our study aims to explore EWSs that monitor and predict the impact of climate variables on malaria incidence and cattle heat stress in Vanuatu. Using monthly precipitation and temperature, a Bayesian model was developed to predict provincial malaria case burden in Vanuatu. Additionally, this study developed a weekly forecasting model to predict periods of cattle heat stress. This model used the Heat Load Index (HLI) as a proxy for heat stress to identify periods of increased heat load and antecedent conditions for cattle heat stress across the provinces. This study was successful in establishing proof-of-concept risk forecasts during selected case study periods: January 2020 and January 2016 for malaria transmission and cattle heat stress, respectively. To contribute towards a future multi-hazard EWS framework for climate hazards in Vanuatu, bulletins for predicted climate-based malaria transmission and cattle heat stress risk were developed to inform key decision makers. Intended to enhance preparedness for malaria outbreaks and cattle heat stress events, this study’s exploration of EWSs can support the resilience of Vanuatu’s public health and agricultural sectors in the face of escalating climate challenges. Full article

Integrated foliar spraying has been proposed as an effective measure to mitigate the increasingly severe impacts of hot–dry–windy (HDW) events on winter wheat yield under ongoing climate change, and its physiological effectiveness has been mechanistically validated. However, there are still few quantitative assessments of the application of this technology at the regional scale. First, hourly meteorological data from the ERA5-Land reanalysis (1981–2020) were matched to the centroids of 599 counties within China’s major winter wheat-producing regions, allowing precise alignment with county-level yield data. Subsequently, spatial and temporal trends of sub-daily HDW events were analyzed. These HDW events were classified according to daily duration into three categories: short-duration (HDW_sd1, 1 h d⁻¹), moderate-duration (HDW_sd2, 2–3 h d⁻¹), and prolonged-duration (HDW_sd3, 4–8 h d⁻¹). Finally, a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach combined with panel matching methods was employed to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of integrated foliar spraying technology—comprising plant growth regulators, essential nutrients, fungicides, and insecticides—on wheat yield improvements under varying irrigation conditions. The results indicate that HDW is a major compound event threatening high-yield and stable-yield regions within the main winter wheat production areas of China, and in the study area, the annual average number of HDW days ranges from 3 to 13 days, increasing by 1–4 days dec⁻¹. While HDW events continue to intensify, the integrated foliar spraying technology effectively mitigates yield losses due to HDW stress. Specifically, yield increases of up to 18–20% were observed in counties with sufficient irrigation infrastructure since the large-scale implementation began in 2012, particularly in regions exposed to more than 2 days of HDW stresses annually. However, the effectiveness of integrated foliar spraying was notably compromised in areas lacking adequate irrigation infrastructure, highlighting the necessity of reliable irrigation conditions. In these poorly irrigated areas, yield improvements remained limited and inconsistent, typically fluctuating around negligible levels. These findings underscore that robust irrigation infrastructure is pivotal to unlock the yield benefits of integrated foliar spraying technology, while also highlighting its transformative potential in advancing climate-smart agriculture globally—particularly in regions grappling with intensifying compound stress events driven by climate change, where this innovation could foster resilient and adaptive food systems to counter escalating environmental extremes. Full article

Climate change significantly impacts agricultural infrastructure, particularly in communal land farming systems, where socio-economic vulnerabilities intersect with environmental stressors. This study examined the effects of extreme weather events (floods, droughts, strong winds, frost, and hail) on various agricultural infrastructures—including bridges, arable land, soil erosion control structures, dipping tanks, roads, and fences—using an ordered probit model. A survey was conducted using structured questionnaires between August and September 2023, collecting data from communal farmers (n = 60) in oKhahlamba Municipality, Bergville. Key results from respondents showed that roads (87%), bridges (85%), and both arable land and erosion structures were reported as highly affected by extreme weather events, especially flooding and frost. Gender, the type of farmer, access to climate information, and exposure to extreme weather significantly influenced perceived impact severity. The ordered probit regression model results reveal that drought (p = 0.05), floods (p = 0.1), strong winds (p = 0.05), and frost (p = 0.1) significantly influence the perceived impacts on infrastructure. Extreme weather events, including flooding (p = 0.012) and frost (p = 0.018), are critical drivers of infrastructure damage, particularly for smallholder farmers. Cumulative impacts—such as repeated infrastructure failure, access disruptions, and increased repair burdens—compound over time, further weakening resilience. The results underscore the urgent need for investments in flood-resilient roads and bridges, improved erosion control systems, and livestock water infrastructure. Support should also include gender-sensitive adaptation strategies, education on climate risk, and dedicated financial mechanisms for smallholder farmers. These findings contribute to global policy discourses on climate adaptation, aligning with SDGs 2 (Zero Hunger), 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and 13 (Climate Action), and offer actionable insights for building infrastructure resilience in vulnerable rural contexts. Full article

This study posits the need for a conceptual multi-risk management approach for fresh produce, an essential product category for societal resilience and one constantly affected by climate change, policy volatility, and geopolitical disruptions. The research started with a literature-informed typological risk mapping, leading to Gephi ver 0.10.1 visualizations of networks related to this trade. Network analysis using 2024 bilateral trade data revealed a core–periphery topology, with the United States, Spain, and the Netherlands as central hubs. A gravity-based simulation model was, lastly, used to address the following question: what structural vulnerabilities and flow-based sensitivities define the global fresh produce trade, and how do they respond to simulated multi-risk disruptions? The model used the case of the USA as a global trade hub and induced two compounding risks: a protectionist tariff policy shock and a climate-related shock to its main supplier. The conclusion was that the fragility in the fresh produce trade enhances the cascading effects that any risk event may have across the environmental, economic, and social sustainability dimensions. This paper emphasizes the need for anticipatory governance, the diversification of trade partners, and investment in cold chain resilience, offering a means for policymakers to acknowledge the risk and mitigate the threats to the increasingly fragile fresh produce trade. Full article

In the recent decades, an ongoing increase in maximum temperature during summer has been observed in Poland, especially in the central-southern and southeastern areas. This raises the vulnerability of these regions not only to heat waves and drought but also to floods. The potential effect of compound heat waves and extreme rainfall events may be more serious than the effects of these events occurring separately. This research is the first attempt in Poland to investigate whether the presence of a heat wave increases the likelihood of extreme rainfall events, if so, by how much, and whether this changes with warming. For this purpose, we used daily maximum temperature values and 6 h precipitation datasets from 44 meteorological stations in Poland for the 1966–2024 period. It was proven that compound heat wave and extreme rainfall events occurred in Poland with spatially differentiated frequency. They occurred the least frequently on the coast and the most frequently in southwestern, southeastern, and northeastern Poland. The extreme rainfall occurred most often between noon and midnight on the last heat wave day. During these hours, the likelihood of extreme rainfall is, on average, 3.5 times higher than that expected according to climatology norms. With warming, the frequency of days with these compound events increases at the rate of 1.22 days per decade, and the frequency of compound events increases at a rate of 3.75 events per decade. Although a detailed analysis of the mechanisms responsible for such events is planned for further research, the preliminary study revealed that in most cases, the approach of a cold front with a mesoscale thundercloud system was responsible for heat wave termination with extreme rainfall. Since we cannot prevent the growing number of heat waves or heavy precipitation events that terminate the heat wave events in Poland, the adaptation strategy needs to be implemented to meet the sustainable development goals regarding climate actions. This refers primarily to urban planning, agriculture (agroecosystems), social health, and well-being. Full article