Search Results (1,056)

It is crucial to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of habitat quality, which is highly sensitive to land use change. Sea-level rise and rapid urbanization are major driving forces of this change, yet their coupled impacts on future habitat quality remain poorly quantified, particularly in highly urbanized coastal regions such as the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). This study develops an integrated framework combining the Dyna-CLUE (Dynamic Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model and SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model), incorporating local sea-level rise data and climate projections under the SSP3–7.0 scenario to simulate land use transitions and their impacts on coastal land use patterns and habitat quality across short-, medium-, and long-term periods. The results indicate that (1) by the end of the 21st century, accelerated urban expansion is projected to dominate land use change, with associated declines in habitat quality; (2) sea-level rise exerts heterogeneous effects on coastal wetlands, with wetland area increasing by 3232 ha between 2020 and 2050, followed by a decrease of 4110 ha by 2100, potentially contributing to habitat degradation; and (3) between 2020 and 2100, the proportion of lower-grade habitats will increase from 14.59% to 27.60%, whereas higher-grade habitats will decline from 5.49% to 4.47%. These findings highlight the need to regulate urban expansion, accommodate coastal wetland migration, and prioritize the conservation of high-quality habitats. The proposed framework provides a context-specific analytical approach for scenario-based assessment of land use management under combined urbanization and climate change pressures. Full article

Coastal cities are prone to flooding due to extreme rainfall, rising sea levels, and urbanization. This study develops a non-stationary flood risk prediction framework for a coastal city to assess the combined effects of rainfall, tide, and land surface change on future flood inundation and socioeconomic risk. Future rainfall was predicted by integrating the time-varying parameter distribution (TVPD) model with CMIP6 data through a genetic algorithm; future tides were estimated using the TVPD model; and land use in 2035 was simulated using the Markov–PLUS model. Flood inundation and the associated socioeconomic risks were then evaluated. The results showed that the integrated rainfall prediction approach reduced RMSE by 13.4% compared with the individual models. The land use simulation also showed acceptable performance, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.79 and an FOM value of 0.15. Under the combined effects of rainfall, tide, and land use change, the future peak inundation volume increased by 19.97% on average relative to the baseline period, while the affected population and economic losses increased by 72,603 people and US$12.61 billion, respectively. These results indicate that flood risk in coastal cities may be substantially exacerbated under a non-stationary environment, and the proposed framework can provide support for future flood risk assessment and adaptation planning. Full article

A growing number of coastal foundation pits are being constructed. Based on an actual coastal deep foundation pit project, this study develops a finite element model that incorporates fluid–soil–structure coupling and dynamic seepage boundaries to simulate tidal fluctuations. The model investigates the influence of seawater and river water on the deformation behavior of the foundation pit. Results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modeling approach, which integrates fluid–soil–structure coupling with dynamic seepage boundaries and employs appropriate constitutive models for different soil layers. Under tidal action, deformation of the soil on the seaward side of the pit is significantly greater than at other locations. Pore pressure and pit deformation exhibit periodic fluctuations synchronized with the tidal cycle. Compared to static water conditions, pore pressure and surface settlement increase markedly, whereas horizontal displacement shows no significant final difference. An increase in the mean sea level leads to greater horizontal displacement of the diaphragm wall but reduces ground settlement outside the pit. Although river water level changes affect deformation through a mechanism similar to that of mean sea level, its impact is considerably weaker due to the greater distance from the pit and relatively stable water level. Therefore, tidal effects should be prioritized in the design and risk assessment of coastal foundation pits. Full article

Coastal small-scale fishers in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) face mounting challenges from climate change (CC), with vulnerability shaped by ecological exposure, socio-economic dependence, and limited adaptive capacity. This study reflects on two contrasting cases, Taiwan and Papua New Guinea (PNG), to explore fishers’ perceptions and perspectives on CC and practical adaptation strategies. In PNG, 209 respondents from Momase, the Islands, and Southern regions participated. In Taiwan, 45 respondents from the Yunlin and Chiayi coastal regions participated. Significant correlations in coastal communities’ vulnerabilities and perceptions towards CC were revealed. Small-scale fishers perceive rising sea temperatures, shifting fish stocks, and intensifying typhoons as disruptive shocks to livelihoods and eroding traditional fishing practices. In Taiwan, despite relatively stronger infrastructure, household income, and access to technology, adaptation remains constrained by market pressures, declining youth participation, and regulatory complexities. In PNG, fishers deeply rely on natural resources and coastal ecosystems for subsistence and income, yet face acute risks from sea-level rise, coral bleaching, and unpredictable weather. With limited financial resources, weak institutional support, and geographic isolation, fishers perceive CC as an amplifying factor to existing vulnerabilities, leaving communities dependent on traditional knowledge and communal coping strategies. Fishers’ perceptions of CC are shaped by lived experiences rather than scientific discourse, influencing adaptation choices ranging from livelihood diversification to migration. Perceptions of CC drivers, their distal and proximal impacts on coastal fishing community livelihoods are viewed as siloed; yet, remote sensing data revealed that the impacts are transboundary. The findings underscore the urgent need for context-sensitive policies that integrate local knowledge, science-based data (such as remote sensing CC maps) to strengthen institutional support, and enhance resilience among vulnerable and underserved coastal small-scale fishers. Full article

Low-lying and riverine areas of Sabah and Sarawak in East Malaysia are increasingly exposed to compound flood hazards driven by intensified monsoon rainfall, sea-level rise, and land-use change. Recent projections indicate stronger extreme rainfall, fewer dry days, but more high-intensity events, and significant increases in annual rainfall and sea level, all of which elevate fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flood risk. In this study, climate-responsive vernacular architecture is investigated as a passive, low-carbon strategy for enhancing residential flood resilience in East Malaysia. Traditional stilted Malay kampung houses, Bornean longhouses, and coastal stilt settlements were explored since they have historically evolved to cope with seasonal inundation, high humidity, and tropical thermal loads. In this study, the following was conducted: (1) historical flood and climate analysis for key basins (Rajang, Sarawak, Kinabatangan); (2) morphological and typological analysis of vernacular dwellings; (3) parametric physical and hydrodynamic simulation of elevated and amphibious configurations; and (4) multi-criteria performance assessment based on structural robustness, flood safety, thermal comfort, cultural acceptability, and embodied carbon. Results from scenario-based simulations show that well-configured stilted typologies, with optimized floor elevation, breakaway panels, and porous undercroft zones, can reduce flood damage depth by 60–80% and expected annual loss by 30–55%. By translating these findings into a design guideline and decision matrix for climate-responsive housing in East Malaysia, contemporary reinterpretations of vernacular strategies were embedded into Malaysian building codes, state-level planning policies, and community-led upgrading programmes. Full article

The Korean Peninsula is critically exposed to impacts associated with current and projected rising mean sea-levels (MSLs) associated with climate change. Rising MSL will continue to exacerbate existing coastal hazards (e.g., typhoon-driven storm surges, tidal inundation, beach erosion, etc.). This study updates the previous 2019 national sea-level rise assessment with an additional 7 years of tidal and satellite altimetry data. Having corrected the rate of “relative” MSL rise for vertical land motion, only Busan and Ulsan tide gauge records have not experienced an increase in the rate of “geocentric” MSL rise since the 2019 Assessment. At the 95% CL, the current rate of “geocentric” MSL rise at all stations accord with recent published estimates of the rate of global MSL rise. From satellite altimetry of the sea margins around the Korean Peninsula, there has been a small (≈1%) increase in the average regional trend of sea-level anomalies (SLAs) compared to the previous assessment. The most significant trend estimates in SLAs continue to increase in margins of the East Sea (Sea of Japan) between 35° N and 40° N with increases of around 11% in the average rate of trend above the 2019 Assessment. Full article

Deposit-feeding sea cucumbers ingest sediment-like particles, making substrate-associated exposure pathways ecologically relevant in coastal aquaculture. In this study, a sea mud feed matrix was used to evaluate short-term dietborne/substrate-linked glyphosate exposure in Apostichopus japonicus over 72 h, with the aim of characterizing early residue formation, short-term sublethal biomarker responses, and gut microbiota shifts under a benthic feeding scenario. Analytical verification confirmed a clear glyphosate gradient in the prepared feed matrices, with no glyphosate detected in the control matrix and measured concentrations of 8.66 ± 1.59 mg/kg, 1330 ± 390 mg/kg, and 6960 ± 1710 mg/kg in the low-, medium-, and high-dose groups, respectively. No mortality or obvious external lesions were observed during the exposure period. Tissue analysis confirmed measurable internal glyphosate residues and compartment-specific distribution, indicating successful internal exposure under the matrix-linked route. Most digestive and immune/antioxidant biomarkers remained relatively stable within the 72 h window; however, amylase showed a marked response in the low-dose group, and superoxide dismutase showed dose-associated changes in the medium- and high-dose groups, indicating selective sensitivity among enzyme endpoints. Gut microbiota analysis revealed a dominance-structured community with limited alpha-diversity variation among groups, whereas community composition showed subtle treatment-related shifts that were more evident at finer taxonomic resolution. Predicted functional profiles remained broadly similar across treatments. Overall, the 72 h exposure design was effective for identifying early internal exposure and short-term biological responses under a sea mud-associated feeding route, while host physiological responses remained largely buffered over this time scale and the gut microbiota provided a more sensitive interface-level signal of exposure-associated change. These findings support the value of a route-specific, gut-centered framework for evaluating early herbicide exposure responses in benthic mariculture species and suggest that matrix-associated feeding conditions may modify the apparent magnitude of short-term responses. Full article

Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and vulnerable to climate change, sea-level rise, and rapid urbanization. However, many landscape ecological risk assessments are limited by fixed scales and assumptions of spatial uniformity. This study develops a geomorphology-based framework to analyze coastal ecological risk. Using multi-source data from 1980 to 2020, the optimal analytical scale was identified as 120 m (grain) and 1000 m (extent). An integrated approach combining OPGD, XGBoost–SHAP, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) models was applied to examine risk patterns and driving mechanisms across four coastal types in Guangdong, China. The results show that the importance and interactions of driving factors vary significantly among geomorphic types, with clear nonlinear responses. Key statistical thresholds were identified, indicating ranges where risk sensitivity changes, including NDVI ≈ 0.624 in the Hilly Ria Coast, slope ≈ 2.8° in the Platform Ria Coast, elevation ≈ 14.5 m in the Barrier–Lagoon Coast, and GDP ≈ 1644.65 × 10⁶ CNY/km² in the Estuarine Delta Coast. These findings provide quantitative evidence for understanding spatial heterogeneity and the nonlinear dynamics of coastal ecological risk, and offer practical references for adaptive management. Full article

Atmospheric heatwaves (AHWs) and marine heatwaves (MHWs) are intensifying under climate change, yet their coupled behavior in the Red Sea remains insufficiently quantified. This study investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of AHWs, MHWs, and their concurrent occurrence across the Red Sea from 1990 to 2024 using ERA5 surface air temperature (SAT) and NOAA OISST v2.1 satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST). Remote-sensing daily satellite-derived Level-4 (L4) OISST products were used in this study to enable spatially complete and temporally consistent detection of MHWs in this narrow, semi-enclosed basin despite contamination and coastal sampling constraints. Both SAT and SST exhibit statistically significant warming trends (p < 0.05), with basin mean increases of 0.40 ± 0.07 °C/decade and 0.31 ± 0.05 °C/decade, respectively. The strongest warming was observed in the central and northern Red Sea. This warming is accompanied by significant increases in the frequency and duration of AHWs, MHWs, and their concurrent AHW-MHW events, particularly after 2010, indicating a shift toward more frequent heatwave conditions. AHWs occur more frequently than MHWs across the Red Sea, whereas MHWs exhibit long duration, particularly in the northern Red Sea, where annual durations exceed 45–50 days/year. Concurrent AHW-MHW events account for about 66% of MHWs in the Red Sea, and their characteristics show a significant increasing trend across the entire basin. These findings identify the Red Sea as a regional hotspot of increasing concurrent heatwave events and highlight the importance of satellite-based monitoring for assessing evolving climate risks in semi-enclosed basins. Full article

The once-extensive coastal forested wetlands (CFWs) of the Mississippi River Delta (MRD) are declining under the combined pressures of pervasive hydrologic change, unregulated harvesting, relative water level rise (due to the combination of geological subsidence and sea-level rise—SLR), and climate change. We synthesize here over 50 years of research conducted in the MRD to examine the history of the CFWs and their management, their ecosystem functions and services, and the nature, extent, and severity of ongoing changes. Seedling recruitment failure and increasing salinity levels are the most immediate threats to forest persistence, necessitating management that restores hydrologic function and sediment and nutrient supply to allow seedling survival and minimizes saltwater intrusion. Collectively, the evidence indicates that managed inflows can bolster accretion and sustain forest function, and long-term resilience requires hydrologic restoration at landscape scales coupled with site-level actions that secure recruitment and address local degradation trajectories. These include freshwater and sediment introduction, protection from herbivory, and, in some cases, planting. Our research findings have important implications for worldwide CFWs, and tidal freshwater ecosystems in general, which occur mainly in tropical deltas. Full article

Oceanfront relief varies along coastlines and serves as the first barrier to wave and surge damage. However, forecasted increases in storm frequency and sea levels are anticipated to enhance coastal erosion, potentially weakening this protection. The land–sea transition is variable along the New England coast, USA, and this variability has produced a range of coastal morphologies that can vary over short distances. It is important to track the beach transition zone to better understand transformations of the system and related hazard risks. A combination of field and computer-based methods was used to evaluate the beach transition zone of southwestern Rhode Island to determine alongshore variability and dynamics. More specifically, a decadal-scale study was conducted to examine changes in morphology from 2011 to 2022, and a short-term study at South Kingstown Town Beach examined changes from November 2023 to January 2024 using time-series drone-derived elevations. Classification of over 500 cross-shore transects illustrated the dominance of sedimentary shorelines, with smaller areas of rocky outcrops and hardening. Analysis of four different years (2011, 2014, 2018, and 2022) determined that beaches with dune morphology were the most common type of transition zone (41–47% of the transects) and transects with a high bank upland were the next most frequent class (34–41%). Following Hurricane Sandy in 2012, a 6% decrease in the number of dune-classified transects was measured; however, one-third of those recovered dune morphology by 2022. The greatest beach transformations over the short-term study occurred in response to strong storms in the 2023–2024 winter season, during which lateral beach movement (erosion) exceeded 15 m in portions of South Kingstown Town Beach. Dune erosion was accompanied by overwash flooding and deposition, and the area remained low-lying and thus vulnerable to future impacts. The beach transition zone classification and insights from this research will be informative for future planning by coastal communities by determining at-risk shorelines based on underlying geology and the stability of morphological features. Full article

Coastal socio-ecological systems are increasingly exposed to the combined pressures of climate change, land-use intensification, hydrological alterations and expanding infrastructure networks. These pressures interact across the land–catchment–lagoon–sea continuum, generating complex feedbacks that challenge traditional planning instruments, which remain sectoral and fragmented. The Mar Menor (SE Spain), a semi-enclosed Mediterranean lagoon affected by intensive agriculture, urbanisation, hydrological modifications and recurrent extreme climatic events, exemplifies this systemic vulnerability. Existing planning frameworks—local urban plans, regional territorial plans, river basin management plans, maritime spatial plans and lagoon-specific strategies—operate independently, each addressing only a fragment of the system and none integrating climate change as a structuring axis. This article introduces Integrated Spatial Planning (ISP) as a novel territorial–climatic framework designed to overcome these limitations. ISP integrates climate forcing, land uses, catchment processes, lagoon dynamics, marine conditions, critical infrastructures, intermodal and energy corridors and multilevel governance into a single analytical structure. A central component of the methodology is a four-zone multilevel zoning system that connects municipal, regional, basin, marine and EEZ planning domains within a unified territorial–climatic logic. The ISP matrix is applied to the Mar Menor to produce the first holistic diagnosis of the system. Results reveal strong land–sea–catchment interactions, high climatic exposure, vulnerable infrastructures and structural governance fragmentation. The matrix exposes systemic incompatibilities and vulnerabilities that remain invisible in sectoral planning instruments. The discussion demonstrates how ISP clarifies the roles and responsibilities of each governance level, supports multilevel coherence and integrates critical infrastructures and intermodal corridors into climate-resilient planning. ISP reframes climate change as the organising principle of territorial planning and provides a replicable, scalable methodology for coastal socio-ecological systems facing accelerating climate pressures. The Mar Menor case illustrates the urgent need for integrated territorial–climatic governance and positions ISP as a scientifically robust and operationally viable pathway for long-term adaptation and resilience. Full article

This study presents a city-scale physical coastal vulnerability assessment of the 21 km Monrovia coastline (Liberia) using a multi-parameter coastal vulnerability index (CVI). Nine physical parameters—geology/geomorphology, shoreline change rate, elevation, slope, bathymetry, wave height, tidal range, relative sea level rise, and coastal landform characteristics—were integrated within an equal-weight ranking framework. The results identify spatially concentrated high vulnerability segments associated with low elevation, sandy geomorphology, and persistent shoreline retreat. The CVI represents a relative exposure screening rather than a predictive risk model. Limitations related to parameter weighting, classification dependency, and temporal heterogeneity are acknowledged. The findings support preliminary spatial prioritization for coastal adaptation planning Full article

Extreme hydrometeorological events are occurring more often under climate change, increasing the risk for cities in coastal zones and lower river reaches. Such areas are prone to compound flooding (CF), where flood duration and magnitude are amplified by the combined effects of storm surges, onshore winds, long-term sea-level rise, and increasingly frequent rainfall-driven floods. This study assesses the socio-economic risk of residential neighbourhoods (RNs) along the lower reach of the Danė River in the city of Klaipėda, Lithuania, using a composite socio-economic risk index (CSERI) developed in this study under an extreme flood scenario, if the sea level in the south-eastern Baltic Sea rises by 1 m by the end of the century. The results show a strong relationship between water levels in the Klaipėda Strait and the lower reach of the Danė River, confirming a CF regime, where flood magnitude is driven by the interaction between strait water level and river discharge. The CSERI is based on five risk sub-indices (SIs): the building risk SI, road infrastructure risk SI, population risk SI, economic entities risk SI, and cultural heritage risk SI. The assessment identifies RNs at greatest risk under climate change and anthropogenic pressure and indicates priority areas for adaptation measures to reduce potential socio-economic losses. The proposed CSERI provides a practical decision-support tool for sustainable and climate-resilient urban development in coastal cities. Full article

Italy and the surrounding seas are recognised as one of the European hotspots for tornadoes and waterspouts. In recent years, the town of Rosignano Solvay (on the Northern Tyrrhenian coast) experienced repeated waterspouts affecting the same areas, raising local concern about the possible influence of heated wastewater discharged into the sea by a nearby industrial site. We reconstruct the mesoscale meteorological conditions of four intense waterspouts near Rosignano Solvay using a limited-area weather model at a high-to-very-high resolution (inner domain grid spacing of 500 m; sensitivity tests at 100 m). At the reported event times, the intensity of key mesoscale precursors (low-level wind shear, 1 km storm-relative helicity, maximum updraft intensity, and lifting condensation level) is consistent with the values typically associated with EF1 (or stronger) tornadoes and waterspouts. The model systematically predicts the peak of instability indices 2–3 h earlier than the reported event times. For one case study, we conduct two sea surface temperature sensitivity experiments to assess the potential atmospheric impact of heated wastewater discharge (temperature increases of +1.5 K and +5 K over a 10 km² area). The resulting changes in instability indices are marginal, with differences of at most 3% relative to the control run. A simple mass-balance estimate for the modified sea patch suggests that, given the reported discharge rates, a plausible impact of the warm water released from the industrial site could lead to an increase in the local sea surface temperature of approximately +0.7 °C over two months. We conclude that synoptic and mesoscale conditions primarily govern waterspout initiation in this region, while the direct effect of the small warm coastal plume from the industrial discharge appears to be minor. Full article