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25 pages, 21065 KB  
Article
Satellite-Based Evidence of Shorter-Term Lagged Drought Driving High-Intensity Wildfires in Subtropical China
by Jialin Yue, Feng Liu, Gui Zhang, Zhigao Yang and Menyuan Zeng
Forests 2026, 17(8), 868; https://doi.org/10.3390/f17080868 (registering DOI) - 25 Jul 2026
Abstract
Climatic drought shapes wildfire regimes, yet the multi-timescale lagged responses of high-intensity wildfires to drought and their spatial heterogeneity remain unclear in subtropical monsoon forests. We integrated long-term MODIS satellite observations and monthly drought metrics (SPEI, VPD, VAP, and precipitation) across subtropical China [...] Read more.
Climatic drought shapes wildfire regimes, yet the multi-timescale lagged responses of high-intensity wildfires to drought and their spatial heterogeneity remain unclear in subtropical monsoon forests. We integrated long-term MODIS satellite observations and monthly drought metrics (SPEI, VPD, VAP, and precipitation) across subtropical China during 2005–2024. We used Spearman rank correlation to identify multi-scale drought–wildfire relationships and constructed zero-inflated negative binomial generalized linear mixed models (ZINB-GLMM) to quantify multi-temporal drought, vegetation, and anthropogenic effects. Our results showed that 64.7% of 0.5° grid cells experienced high-intensity wildfires, with 77.8% of events occurring in the cold dry season (November–March). Concurrent dry conditions (low SPEI, VAP, precipitation) generally increased fire susceptibility, while atmospheric aridity (high VPD) showed spatially dipolar effects. The 1–3-month lagged model had the highest explanatory power (R2 = 0.54), identifying antecedent moisture deficit as the dominant driver. Dense vegetation amplified drought–fire synergies, especially in southeastern and southwestern China. Model predictive performance was strong overall, but lower accuracy in northern areas suggests additional local factors modulate wildfire risk there. This study provides a satellite-based spatiotemporal modeling framework that may serve as a methodological reference for ecological informatics-based wildfire early warning and climate-adaptive management in subtropical and analogous monsoon regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Natural Hazards and Risk Management)
30 pages, 1311 KB  
Article
Life Cycle Assessment of a Small Hydropower Plant in Iceland—A Case Study of a 9.9 MW Run-of-River Hydropower Plant
by Lúna Grétudóttir, Brynhildur Davíðsdóttir and Ólafur Ögmundarson
Energies 2026, 19(15), 3501; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19153501 (registering DOI) - 25 Jul 2026
Abstract
Decarbonizing the energy sector is central to limiting global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, in line with the Paris Agreement. Hydropower plays a key role in renewable energy generation, yet environmental impacts vary depending on systems and site conditions. [...] Read more.
Decarbonizing the energy sector is central to limiting global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, in line with the Paris Agreement. Hydropower plays a key role in renewable energy generation, yet environmental impacts vary depending on systems and site conditions. Small hydropower (<10 MW installed capacity) is often assumed to have lower environmental impacts, but evidence remains limited, especially in cold-climate regions. This study assesses the cradle-to-gate life cycle environmental impacts of a 9.9 MW run-of-river hydropower plant in Iceland, using life cycle assessment based on the CML-IA method. The study uses primary design and operator data and provides direct comparison with published Icelandic large hydropower life cycle assessments. The functional unit is 1 kWh of electricity generated over a 60-year lifetime. Results indicate a global warming potential of 4 g CO2 equivalent per kWh, decreasing to 3 g CO2 under a 100-year lifetime. Hot spot analysis shows that construction materials, particularly glass fibre reinforced plastic (GRP), concrete, and steel, dominate environmental impacts. Sensitivity analysis shows the influence of lifetime, capacity factor, and dam material. Indicative reservoir emission estimates highlight additional potential impacts even for small intake reservoirs. Overall, the studied system shows higher life cycle impacts per kWh compared to Icelandic large hydropower plants, highlighting the importance of site-specific assessment and careful interpretation of small hydropower (SHP) environmental performance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section A: Sustainable Energy)
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20 pages, 346 KB  
Article
Work Stress, Quality of Work Life, and Burnout Among Registered Nurses in Public Hospitals in Samut Songkhram Province, Thailand: An Explanatory Sequential Mixed-Methods Study
by Bovornpot Choompunuch, Emanyah Sani, Jutatip Sillabutra and Jatuporn Ounprasertsuk
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2026, 23(8), 961; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph23080961 (registering DOI) - 25 Jul 2026
Abstract
Burnout among nurses is an important occupational and public health concern because it is associated with nurses’ well-being, workforce retention, and the quality and safety of patient care. This explanatory sequential mixed-methods study examined levels of work stress, quality of work life, and [...] Read more.
Burnout among nurses is an important occupational and public health concern because it is associated with nurses’ well-being, workforce retention, and the quality and safety of patient care. This explanatory sequential mixed-methods study examined levels of work stress, quality of work life, and burnout among registered nurses in public hospitals in Samut Songkhram Province, Thailand, and explored nurses’ experiences regarding workplace factors related to burnout. The target quantitative sample was 217 registered nurses, and 186 completed questionnaires were included in the final analysis. Structured questionnaires assessed work stress, quality of work life, and burnout. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with burnout. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with 10 registered nurses and analyzed using content analysis. Most nurses were classified as having high work stress and being at risk of burnout. Work stress and quality of work life jointly explained 35.0% of the variance in burnout. Work–life balance, fair and adequate compensation, professional development, workplace safety, organizational justice, and social integration in the workplace were associated with lower burnout scores. Organizational structure, policy, and climate showed a positive coefficient in relation to burnout and should be interpreted cautiously because the p-value was close to the conventional threshold for statistical significance. Qualitative findings supported the quantitative results and highlighted workload, staffing shortages, limited resources, insufficient recovery time, and workplace support as important workplace concerns. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Occupational Health Nursing in Diverse Settings)
17 pages, 435 KB  
Article
Nurses’ Perceptions of Individualized Care for Older Adults in the Post-COVID-19 Era: The Role of Ethical Workplace Climate
by Aurora García-Camacha Gutiérrez, Irene García-Camacha Gutiérrez, Riitta Suhonen and Beatriz Rodriguez-Martín
Healthcare 2026, 14(15), 2274; https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare14152274 (registering DOI) - 25 Jul 2026
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Individualized nursing care is a fundamental component of high-quality healthcare, particularly in geriatric populations. However, its consistent implementation remains challenging, a situation further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic due to increased workloads and resource constraints. This study aimed to assess nurses’ perceptions [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: Individualized nursing care is a fundamental component of high-quality healthcare, particularly in geriatric populations. However, its consistent implementation remains challenging, a situation further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic due to increased workloads and resource constraints. This study aimed to assess nurses’ perceptions of individualized care for older adults in Spain and to examine the influence of the workplace ethical climate on these perceptions. Methods: A cross-sectional observational study was conducted using two validated instruments: the Individualized Care Scale–Nurse version (ICS-Nurse) and the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey (HECS). Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed to assess individualized care, ethical workplace climate, and the associations between both constructs. Results: A total of 96 nursing professionals participated in the study. Participants reported an overall favorable perception of individualized care. The highest scores were observed in the clinical situation dimension, whereas lower scores were reported for aspects related to hygiene organization and the incorporation of patients’ preferences. A moderate, positive, and statistically significant association was observed between ethical workplace climate and individualized care, particularly in dimensions related to patients and physicians. Participants working in hospital settings reported higher recent-experience individualized care scores than those working in nursing homes. Conclusions: These results highlight the critical role of an ethical workplace climate in supporting nurses’ capacity to deliver individualized care. They also underscore the need for targeted strategies to strengthen organizational support, enhance interprofessional collaboration—particularly with physicians—and promote training in individualized care practices. Addressing these factors may facilitate more consistent and comprehensive individualized care, especially in long-term care settings where structural challenges persist. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Person-Centered Care and Rehabilitation in Aging and Dementia Care)
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18 pages, 2354 KB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Carbon Sink in the Yellow River Basin (2001–2024): A GAM-Based Analysis
by Wei Zhao, Weihua Gu, Fenghua Bai, Ying Xiao, Hao Wang and Fangyuan Liang
Sustainability 2026, 18(15), 7576; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18157576 (registering DOI) - 24 Jul 2026
Abstract
The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a key ecological barrier and socio-economic region in China, but the spatiotemporal dynamics of its ecosystem carbon sink and the non-linear effects of environmental drivers remain insufficiently understood. This study estimated Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) in the [...] Read more.
The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a key ecological barrier and socio-economic region in China, but the spatiotemporal dynamics of its ecosystem carbon sink and the non-linear effects of environmental drivers remain insufficiently understood. This study estimated Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) in the YRB from 2001 to 2024 using MODIS Net Primary Productivity (NPP) data and an empirical soil heterotrophic respiration model, analyzed NEP trends with the Theil–Sen estimator and Mann–Kendall test, and quantified non-linear responses to climatic, temporal, and spatial factors using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The YRB acted as a persistent and strengthening net carbon sink, with annual total NEP increasing significantly from 39.85 Tg C yr−1 in 2001 to 176.44 Tg C yr−1 in 2024, at a rate of 5.65 Tg C yr−1. NEP showed a clear southeast-to-northwest decreasing gradient, and 85.6% of the basin exhibited increasing trends, particularly on the Loess Plateau. The GAM captured non-linear associations of NEP with temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, year, and spatial location, and achieved a moderate pooled spatial block cross-validated R2 of 0.723. NEP displayed a unimodal association with temperature—with a fitted peak near 0 °C reflecting the spatial transition from cold high-altitude to warmer water-limited regions—and a saturation-type response to precipitation, highlighting the joint control of hydrothermal conditions and pervasive water limitation. The fitted spatial smooth further revealed residual spatially structured variation that may be partly associated with irrigation and land management. These findings improve the understanding of carbon-sink dynamics in the YRB and provide scientific support for climate-adaptive ecosystem management and the regional implementation of China’s “dual carbon” goals. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Air, Climate Change and Sustainability)
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27 pages, 896 KB  
Article
Determinants of Urban Greenery Quality—A Case Study of Slovakia
by Jozef Porvazník, Katarína Miklášová, Martin Prčík, Ján Kollár and Jarmila Lazíková
Land 2026, 15(8), 1337; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15081337 (registering DOI) - 24 Jul 2026
Abstract
Urban greenery represents a crucial component of green infrastructure, influencing ecological stability, aesthetic quality, and the quality of life of urban residents. The aim of this study was to characterise the functional–spatial structure of urban greenery in the city of Nitra and to [...] Read more.
Urban greenery represents a crucial component of green infrastructure, influencing ecological stability, aesthetic quality, and the quality of life of urban residents. The aim of this study was to characterise the functional–spatial structure of urban greenery in the city of Nitra and to quantify the effects of selected urban, vegetation, and management factors on its aesthetic appearance and health status using an integrated statistical approach. The analysis was conducted on green spaces covering a total area of 1116.5 hectares, classified into 20 functional categories. The most dominant categories were residential greenery (31.47%), greenery at healthcare facilities (19.25%), and greenery at recreational facilities (15.72%). To identify the factors influencing greenery quality, statistical models were applied to assess the determinants of vegetation aesthetics and health status. The result demonstrated that maintenance intensity is one of the most significant determinants of greenery quality. An increase in maintenance level by one unit increased the probability of achieving a higher aesthetic rating by 112% and improved health status by 161%. The strongest positive effect on aesthetic evaluation was observed for the proportion of coniferous trees. Conifers species increased the likelihood of achieving a higher aesthetic rating by 3.7 times, while a positive effect was also observed for greater woody vegetation coverage. In contrast, the total area of green spaces did not represent a significant predictor of their quality. These findings confirm that the quality of urban greenery is determined primarily by vegetation structure and management intensity rather than by total green space area. They also highlight the need to move toward more targeted and scientifically based maintenance strategies consistent with nature-based solutions principles, integrating the ecological, aesthetic, and social functions of urban greenery. This study provides an empirical basis for more effective planning and management of urban greenery aimed at enhancing ecological functionality, aesthetic value, and climate change adaptability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Land Planning and Landscape Architecture)
21 pages, 11869 KB  
Article
Projected Climate Vulnerability of Salix babylonica in China: Implications for Climate-Adaptive Urban Forestry
by Chunlei Yue, Xiaodeng Shi and Shiming Cheng
Plants 2026, 15(15), 2269; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants15152269 (registering DOI) - 24 Jul 2026
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly reshaping the distribution and long-term persistence of urban greening tree species, yet national-scale assessments of widely planted species in China remain limited. Salix babylonica is one of the most representative and extensively planted urban greening trees in China, but [...] Read more.
Climate change is increasingly reshaping the distribution and long-term persistence of urban greening tree species, yet national-scale assessments of widely planted species in China remain limited. Salix babylonica is one of the most representative and extensively planted urban greening trees in China, but its future climate vulnerability and redistribution patterns are still poorly understood. In this study, we integrated 425 occurrence records and 16 environmental variables to project the potential distribution of S. babylonica under current and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) climate scenarios across three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) using an optimized MaxEnt model. The optimized model demonstrated strong predictive performance and identified annual precipitation (≥309.64 mm), precipitation of the wettest month (≥82.01 mm), elevation (≤2251.24 m), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (≥−10.77 °C), annual mean temperature (≥3.94 °C), and minimum temperature of the coldest month (≥−19.11 °C) as the dominant environmental factors (threshold) constraining species distribution. Under the current climate, suitable habitats of S. babylonica are primarily distributed in East, Central, Southwest, and South China, with highly suitable habitats concentrated in the eastern and central plains. Under future climate scenarios, high suitability areas are projected to contract significantly and become progressively fragmented, with reductions ranging from 2.81% (2070s-SSP126) to 40.01% (2090s-SSP585), whereas medium and low suitability areas are projected to expand substantially, with increases ranging from 6.76% to 48.10%. The overall centroid of suitable habitats exhibits a consistent northward shift across scenarios. These results indicate that climate change will not simply expand the potential distribution of S. babylonica, but will reorganize habitat quality and increase long-term risks for its continued use in urban greening. Our findings provide a spatially explicit basis for climate-adaptive urban forestry planning and support risk-differentiated management, including the conservation of stable core areas, monitoring of declining risk zones, and cautious introduction trials in newly emerging suitable areas. Full article
23 pages, 12616 KB  
Article
Assessing the Impact of Irrigation and Crop Type on Soil Respiration in Agricultural Soils
by Therese Ave Maria, Marguerite Mukangango, Guillaume Nyagatare, Valens Nkundabashaka, Rose Niyonkuru, Simon Rukera-Tabaro, Örjan Berglund and Abraham Joel
Agriculture 2026, 16(15), 1579; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16151579 - 24 Jul 2026
Abstract
Identifying the main drivers of soil CO2 emissions in tropical agroecosystems is essential for balancing productivity and climate mitigation. This study evaluated the effects of crop type, irrigation, phenological stage, fertilization, soil cover condition, and season on total soil respiration in a [...] Read more.
Identifying the main drivers of soil CO2 emissions in tropical agroecosystems is essential for balancing productivity and climate mitigation. This study evaluated the effects of crop type, irrigation, phenological stage, fertilization, soil cover condition, and season on total soil respiration in a humid marshland system in Rwanda using a two-season field experiment. Five crops (maize, soybean, common bean, Irish potato, and Brachiaria) were grown under irrigated and rainfed conditions, and total soil CO2 emissions were measured across 19 sampling campaigns in both crop-covered and adjacent non-vegetated conditions in all plots using the closed static chamber method. Crop type and growth stage were the dominant drivers of soil CO2 emissions (p < 0.001), while irrigation had no significant direct effect despite increasing yields (p < 0.001). As a result, irrigation reduced yield-scaled CO2 emissions for beans and Irish potato (p < 0.05). Brachiaria showed higher emissions, particularly during the development stage, but its high biomass led to lower emissions per unit yield. Fertilization significantly increased total soil respiration (p < 0.001), and emissions were higher under crop-covered soil than non-vegetated soil conditions (p < 0.001). Season did not significantly affect soil CO2 emissions (p = 0.123), and similar emission patterns were observed across the two cropping seasons. Because the measurements represented total soil respiration, the observed differences reflect the combined contributions of autotrophic (root) and heterotrophic (microbial) respiration and do not distinguish between these individual components. These findings indicate that crop traits, plant developmental stage, vegetation cover, and nutrient inputs are the primary factors associated with variation in total soil CO2 emissions under moisture-sufficient tropical conditions and highlight the importance of biological drivers in regulating carbon dynamics in marshland agroecosystems. Full article
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25 pages, 9809 KB  
Article
Integrating Host Plant Availability into Ensemble Models Reveals Divergent Responses of Three Endangered Papilionid Butterflies to Climate Change in China
by Ze Lan and Guangfu Zhang
Biology 2026, 15(15), 1232; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology15151232 - 24 Jul 2026
Abstract
Climate change is altering the potential distribution of many butterfly species, but climatic suitability alone may be insufficient to sustain the long-term viability of host-dependent butterflies. For papilionid butterflies, larval feeding and development depend on specific host plants; however, the extent to which [...] Read more.
Climate change is altering the potential distribution of many butterfly species, but climatic suitability alone may be insufficient to sustain the long-term viability of host-dependent butterflies. For papilionid butterflies, larval feeding and development depend on specific host plants; however, the extent to which host plant availability modifies projected suitable habitats under climate change remains unclear. Here, we first selected three threatened papilionids in China: Luehdorfia chinensis Leech, Teinopalpus imperialis Hope, and Troides aeacus C. & R. Felder (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae). Then we constructed two sets of ensemble distribution models: an environment-only model (Env-only) and a host-inclusive model (Env+Host), and compared the resulting projections for each species under current and future climate scenarios (the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5). Landscape pattern metrics were further employed to assess changes in the spatial structure of suitable habitats. In the Env-only models, precipitation-related variables were identified as the primary factors constraining the potential distributions of all three species. After it was incorporated, host plant availability became the most important predictor for L. chinensis (41.54%) and T. aeacus (51.53%). In contrast, precipitation of the warmest quarter remained the dominant predictor for T. imperialis (36.00%). Compared with the Env-only models, the Env+Host models forecast smaller suitable habitats for all three species under all scenarios. T. imperialis exhibited the largest host-related contraction under SSP5–8.5 2090s (68.44%). Additionally, landscape pattern metrics indicated increased habitat fragmentation for L. chinensis and T. imperialis, but enhanced spatial continuity for T. aeacus. Overall, the three species have pronounced interspecific differences in their responses to the incorporation of host plant availability. These findings suggest that biotic factors should be incorporated into suitable habitat assessments for threatened papilionids in China. Accordingly, conservation strategies should be tailored to their host specificity, climate-driven distribution, and habitat requirements. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Ecology)
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24 pages, 2185 KB  
Article
Fragile or Robust: Research on the Structure, Energy Flow, and Associated Environmental Factors of Nearshore Coral Reef Ecosystems in Hainan
by Jianfeng Gan, Kaibiao Chen, Jinghuai Zhang, Xinming Lei, Lang Lin, Xin Hu, Guowei Zhou, Danping Xie and Peng Xu
Sustainability 2026, 18(15), 7538; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18157538 - 24 Jul 2026
Abstract
Coral reefs are typical ecosystems of high diversity and productivity, but they are facing significant degradation in their structure and function due to the dual stresses of climate change and human activities. To uncover the trophic structure, energy flow, and environmental driving mechanisms [...] Read more.
Coral reefs are typical ecosystems of high diversity and productivity, but they are facing significant degradation in their structure and function due to the dual stresses of climate change and human activities. To uncover the trophic structure, energy flow, and environmental driving mechanisms of nearshore coral reefs in Hainan, this study constructed mass balance models for five regions, Sanya, Changjiang, Lingao, Wenchang, and Wanning, using Ecopath with Ecosim, and conducted quantitative analysis in conjunction with satellite environmental monitoring data. The results showed that the trophic levels of functional groups in different ecosystems ranged from 1.00 to 5.00, with Sanya and Changjiang having the highest trophic levels (4.505, 4.656), higher than Lingao, Wenchang, and Wanning (3.776–3.924). The system average trophic transfer efficiency ranged from 15.98% to 30.25%, generally higher than the classic Lindeman 10% rule, with Changjiang being the highest (30.25%) and Lingao the lowest (15.98%). In terms of material cycling, the energy utilization efficiency of primary trophic levels was low, with a large amount of energy retained as detritus at lower trophic levels; Sanya and Changjiang showed more complete detritus chain energy cycling, with Finn cycling indices reaching 7.69 and 2.53, respectively, indicating higher maturity. Keystone analysis identified zooplankton, corals, and medium carnivorous fish as key functional groups with a decisive impact on system stability. Environmental correlation analysis revealed that particulate inorganic carbon (Pic), light diffuse attenuation coefficient (Kd), chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl_a), and sea surface temperature (Sst) were the main regulating factors, among which Pic showed a significant peaked relationship with the total system throughput, total biomass, and total production, with an optimal range of 0.0050–0.0075 mol/m2. Overall, the material cycling and energy flow states of the Sanya and Changjiang coral reef ecosystems were stronger than those of Lingao, Wenchang, and Wanning, with lower fishing pressure in the former contributing to a more complex food web and enhanced community structural stability. This study provides the first systematic quantitative assessment of food-web structures across five distinct nearshore coral reef regions in Hainan, introducing an early-warning threshold for particulate inorganic carbon that offers direct, actionable reference for regional ecosystem-based management. Full article
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12 pages, 1096 KB  
Article
Range Expansion and Environmental Determinants of the Invasive Freshwater Leech Helobdella europaea (Hirudinea: Glossiphoniidae) in Morocco
by Fouzi Abdelkhaleq Taybi, Serge Utevsky and Youness Mabrouki
Biology 2026, 15(15), 1228; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology15151228 - 23 Jul 2026
Viewed by 113
Abstract
Invasive species represent a major threat to global biodiversity, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and research to better understand their ecology, distribution, and invasion dynamics. Among freshwater leeches (Hirudinea), Helobdella europaea is considered one of the most successful and widespread invasive taxa. [...] Read more.
Invasive species represent a major threat to global biodiversity, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and research to better understand their ecology, distribution, and invasion dynamics. Among freshwater leeches (Hirudinea), Helobdella europaea is considered one of the most successful and widespread invasive taxa. This study provides an updated assessment of the distribution of H. europaea in Morocco and identifies the main environmental factors influencing its occurrence and spread across the country. Field surveys were conducted between 2014 and 2024 in northern Morocco, with particular focus on protected wetlands, including Ramsar sites, and major biogeographical barriers such as the Middle Atlas Mountains and the Sebou and Moulouya river basins. Specimens were collected using Surber samplers (20 × 25 cm, 400 μm mesh), while physicochemical water parameters and other abiotic variables were simultaneously recorded. Since its first detection in Morocco in 2014, H. europaea has significantly expanded its geographic range. The species exhibited broad ecological tolerance, occurring in a wide variety of habitats, including environmentally degraded sites, and enduring substantial variation in water conditions. Among the environmental variables examined, water velocity and salinity were identified as the primary factors constraining the species’ distribution and abundance. Nevertheless, additional studies are required to better predict the future expansion dynamics of H. europaea, particularly under ongoing hydrological alterations and climate change scenarios. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Conservation Biology and Biodiversity)
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23 pages, 1446 KB  
Article
Projected Aridity Dynamics Across the Western Balkans Using a Multi-Model CMIP6 Ensemble and Short-Term AI Benchmarking
by Ivica Djalović, Dejan B. Stojanović, Rastislav Stojsavljević, Mladjen Jovanović and Dalibor Nikolić
Atmosphere 2026, 17(8), 712; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17080712 - 23 Jul 2026
Viewed by 57
Abstract
The Western Balkans (Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro) occupy a transitional climatic position between the Mediterranean hotspot and the continental Balkan interior within Southeast Europe, yet multi-country, multi-model, station-resolved assessments of regional aridification remain scarce. We combined quality-controlled monthly temperature and [...] Read more.
The Western Balkans (Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro) occupy a transitional climatic position between the Mediterranean hotspot and the continental Balkan interior within Southeast Europe, yet multi-country, multi-model, station-resolved assessments of regional aridification remain scarce. We combined quality-controlled monthly temperature and precipitation records from 100 stations across Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro (1961–2020) with bias-corrected projections from a five-member CMIP6 ensemble (EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, CNRM-CM6-1, MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR) under four SSP scenarios to 2100 and benchmarked these projections against five short-term forecasting baselines on a held-out 2019–2020 period. Aridity was quantified using the Ellenberg Climate Quotient (EQ) and De Martonne Index. Results: Ninety-eight of 100 stations showed significant warming (1961–2020, p < 0.05), and 26 showed significant aridification. Ensemble mean end-of-century EQ change ranged from −6.9% (SSP1-2.6) to +44.6% (SSP5-8.5, Montenegro), with the largest absolute increases in the Pannonian lowlands; inter-model uncertainty exceeded inter-scenario uncertainty by roughly a factor of two. Deep learning forecasters (TFT, N-HiTS) outperformed bias-corrected CMIP6 output for short-term, station-scale temperature forecasting, while a simple climatological baseline remained competitive for precipitation. CMIP6 projections and AI forecasting are complementary: multi-model ensembles remain indispensable for long-term, scenario-conditioned planning, while AI offers superior near-term predictive skill for operational decisions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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21 pages, 17464 KB  
Article
Multi-Scale Pore Structure Characterization and Elemental Geochemistry of Source Rocks in the Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation, Songliao Basin, NE China
by Zhongrui Wu, Zhongliang Sun, Zhiming Li, Menhui Qian and Zhi Yang
Minerals 2026, 16(8), 765; https://doi.org/10.3390/min16080765 - 23 Jul 2026
Viewed by 156
Abstract
Lacustrine shales are globally important both as archives of paleoenvironmental change and as unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs. The first Member of the Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation in the Songliao Basin, NE China, represents a prominent interval of high-quality petroleum source rocks. Despite their significance, [...] Read more.
Lacustrine shales are globally important both as archives of paleoenvironmental change and as unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs. The first Member of the Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation in the Songliao Basin, NE China, represents a prominent interval of high-quality petroleum source rocks. Despite their significance, the factors governing organic matter accumulation and pore evolution in these lacustrine deposits remain inadequately constrained, especially with respect to the interplay between paleoenvironmental conditions and porosity development. This research explores the geochemical, mineralogical, and pore structure features of lacustrine shales and mudstones from this formation. The samples analyzed display TOC contents between 0.62 and 3.13 wt%, with Rock-Eval pyrolysis results (Tmax avg. 439 °C) reflecting thermal maturity spanning the early to peak oil window. Mineralogically, the samples are dominated by quartz (avg. 28 wt%) and clay minerals (avg. 51 wt%), with feldspar as a minor component (avg. 14 wt%). Geochemical proxies suggest deposition under arid to semi-arid climatic conditions, characterized by minimal chemical weathering, elevated paleo-salinity (Sr/Ba avg. 0.89; 100 × Mg/Al avg. 14.94), and predominantly suboxic to oxic bottom-water conditions (U/Th avg. 0.38; Ni/Co avg. 1.77). Organic matter enrichment is primarily driven by high paleoproductivity (Cu/Al avg. 3.77 × 10−4) and stratified water columns, while detrital input (Zr/Al ratio) is unfavorable for organic matter accumulation. Pore structure analysis reveals micropore volumes averaging 0.0053 cm3/g and meso- and macropore volumes averaging 0.0233 cm3/g. The contents of quartz and clay minerals exhibit no substantial correlation with pore volume, likely due to secondary quartz overgrowth and mechanical compaction. Similarly, the weak negative correlation between TOC and pore volume is attributed to the poorly developed pore networks within kerogen. This study provides new insights into the depositional and diagenetic controls on organic matter accumulation and pore development in the lacustrine Qingshankou Formation, with implications for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and unconventional hydrocarbon exploration in analogous lacustrine basins worldwide. Full article
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12 pages, 595 KB  
Article
The Conditional Protective Role of Psychological Resilience: School Bullying Climate, Emotional Regulation Difficulties, and Mobile Phone Dependence Among Left-Behind Children
by Chang Wei, Weibin Zhao and Chengfu Yu
Behav. Sci. 2026, 16(8), 1261; https://doi.org/10.3390/bs16081261 - 23 Jul 2026
Viewed by 137
Abstract
School bullying climate is a known risk factor for adolescent mobile phone dependence, yet the mechanisms linking these two constructs and the boundary conditions of protective factors remain underexplored. The present study aimed to examine the mediating role of emotional regulation difficulties in [...] Read more.
School bullying climate is a known risk factor for adolescent mobile phone dependence, yet the mechanisms linking these two constructs and the boundary conditions of protective factors remain underexplored. The present study aimed to examine the mediating role of emotional regulation difficulties in the relationship between school bullying climate and mobile phone dependence among left-behind children, as well as the moderating role of psychological resilience in this mediating pathway. The final analytical sample consisted of 300 left-behind children who completed two waves of surveys separated by a six-month interval. Participants completed the School Bullying Climate Scale, the Brief Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale, the Mobile Phone Dependence Scale, and the Psychological Resilience Scale. Data were analyzed using the PROCESS macro for SPSS (Model 4 for mediation and Model 58 for moderated mediation), controlling for age, gender, and baseline mobile phone dependence. School bullying climate was significantly positively correlated with mobile phone dependence among left-behind children six months later (r = 0.14, p < 0.05), and emotional regulation difficulties mediated this relationship (indirect effect = 0.03, 95% CI = [0.001, 0.077]). Psychological resilience significantly moderated the path from school bullying climate to emotional regulation difficulties (b = 0.19, p < 0.05). Specifically, for left-behind children with high psychological resilience, the relationship between school bullying climate and emotional regulation difficulties was significant (b = 0.29, p < 0.01); for those with low psychological resilience, this relationship was not significant (b = 0.02, p > 0.05). Notably, psychological resilience played a conditional moderating role: only under a low school bullying climate is high psychological resilience associated with lower emotional regulation difficulties in left-behind children. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mental Health and Behavioral Intervention for Children at Risk)
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32 pages, 2590 KB  
Article
Seasonality of Municipal Waste Generation: Evidence from a County-Level Case Study in Romania
by Emilian Moșnegutu, Alexandra-Dana Chițimuș, Claudia Tomozei, Oana Irimia, Narcis Barsan, Oana Ancuța Stangaciu, Ovidiu Bontaș, Grzegorz Przydatek and Mihai Alin Petre
Sustainability 2026, 18(15), 7510; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18157510 - 23 Jul 2026
Viewed by 176
Abstract
Municipal waste management is a major challenge for sustainable development, as it is strongly influenced by socioeconomic dynamics, seasonality, and the local institutional framework. In this context, this study aims to analyze the seasonality and structure of municipal waste streams at the county [...] Read more.
Municipal waste management is a major challenge for sustainable development, as it is strongly influenced by socioeconomic dynamics, seasonality, and the local institutional framework. In this context, this study aims to analyze the seasonality and structure of municipal waste streams at the county level, using monthly operational data provided by the Integrated Waste Management System in Bacău County, Romania. The analysis is based on descriptive statistical methods, seasonal indicators, nonparametric statistical tests, and exploratory multivariate techniques. Seasonal variability was assessed by calculating monthly and seasonal indices, and differences between seasons were tested using the Kruskal–Wallis test. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) were used to explore the relationships between waste generation patterns and selected temporal, socioeconomic, calendar, and climatic factors. The results of the analyses reveal a pronounced seasonal pattern, characterized by minimum waste generation during the cold season and maximum generation during the summer months. Residual waste dominates the overall composition throughout the year, while the share of recyclable waste remains low, and the fractional composition remains relatively stable across seasons. Statistical tests confirm the existence of significant seasonal differences between contrasting periods, and multivariate analyses indicate that municipal waste variability is more closely associated with temporal factors and with the socioeconomic indicator considered in this study (average monthly net wage), while climatic variables show weaker associations. From an operational perspective, the results highlight the need to seasonally adjust municipal waste collection, transportation, and treatment capacities, particularly during peak generation periods. By providing a detailed case study at the county level, based on real data, the research contributes to the literature on the seasonality of municipal waste and supports evidence-based management decisions at the local and regional levels, in line with European policy objectives. Full article
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