Search Results (38)

Achieving sustainable development goals remains a core issue in global development. In response, China has proposed the development of new quality productive forces (NQPFs) through innovative thinking, emphasizing that fostering NQPFs is both an intrinsic requirement and a pivotal focus for advancing high-quality development. Concurrently, the intelligent transformation of the manufacturing sector serves as a critical direction for China’s economic restructuring and upgrading. This paper places “new quality productive forces” and “intelligent transformation of manufacturing” within the same analytical framework. Starting from the logical chain of “new quality productive forces—three major mechanisms—intelligent transformation of manufacturing,” it concretizes the value implications of new quality productive forces into a systematic conceptual framework driven by the synergistic interaction of three major mechanisms: the mechanism of revolutionary technological breakthroughs, the mechanism of innovative allocation of production factors, and the mechanism of deep industrial transformation and upgrading. This study constructs a “3322” evaluation index system for NQPFs, based on three formative processes, three driving forces, two supporting systems, and two-dimensional characteristics. Simultaneously, it builds an evaluation index system for the intelligent transformation of manufacturing, encompassing intelligent technology, intelligent applications, and intelligent benefits. Using national time-series data from 2012 to 2023, this study assesses the development levels of both NQPFs and the intelligent transformation of manufacturing during this period. The study further analyzes the impact of NQPFs on the intelligent transformation of the manufacturing sector. The research results indicate the following: (1) NQPFs drive the intelligent transformation of the manufacturing industry through the three mechanisms of innovative allocation of production factors, revolutionary breakthroughs in technology, and deep transformation and upgrading of industries. (2) The development of NQPFs exhibits a slow upward trend; however, the outbreak of the pandemic and Sino-US trade frictions have caused significant disruptions to the development of new-type productive forces. (3) The level of intelligent manufacturing continues to improve; however, from 2020 to 2023, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Sino-US trade conflicts, the level of intelligent benefits has slightly declined. (4) NQPFs exert a powerful driving force on the intelligent transformation of manufacturing, exerting a significant positive impact on intelligent technology, intelligent applications, and intelligent efficiency levels. Full article

Understanding the relationship between regional vegetation dynamics and water resources is essential for improving integrated vegetation–water management, enhancing ecosystem services, and advancing the sustainable development of ecological–economic–social systems. As China’s second largest river basin, the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is ecologically fragile and experiences severe water scarcity. Vegetation changes further intensify conflicts between water supply and demand. To investigate the evolution and interaction mechanisms between vegetation and water resources in the YRB, this study uses the InVEST model to simulate annual water yield (Wyield) from 1982 to 2020 and applies the Dimidiate Pixel Model (DPM) to estimate fractional vegetation cover (FVC). The Theil–Sen method is applied to quantify the spatiotemporal trends of Wyield and FVC. A pixel-based second-order partial correlation analysis is performed to clarify the intrinsic relationship between FVC and Wyield at the grid scale. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) During the statistical period (1982–2020), the multi-year average annual Wyield in the YRB was 73.15 mm. Interannual Wyield showed a clear fluctuating trend, with an initial decline followed by a subsequent increase. Wyield showed marked spatial heterogeneity, with high values in the southern upper reaches and low values in the Longzhong Loess Plateau and Hetao Plain. During the same period, about 68.74% of the basin experienced increasing Wyield, while declines were concentrated in the upper reaches. (2) The average FVC across the basin was 0.51, showing a significant increasing trend during the statistical period. The long-term average FVC showed significant spatial heterogeneity, with high values in the Fenwei Plain, Shanxi Basin, and Taihang Mountains, and low values in the Loess Plateau and Hetao Plain. Spatially, 68.74% of the basin exhibited significant increases in FVC, mainly in the middle and lower reaches, while decreases were mostly in the upper reaches. (3) Areas with significant FVC–Wyield correlations covered a small portion of the basin: trade-off regions made up 10.35% (mainly in the southern upper reaches), and synergistic areas accounted for 5.26% (mostly in the Hetao Plain and central Loess Plateau), both dominated by grasslands and croplands. Mechanistic analysis revealed spatiotemporal heterogeneity in FVC–Wyield relationships across the basin, influenced by both natural drivers and anthropogenic activities. This study systematically explores the patterns and interaction mechanisms of FVC and Wyield in the YRB, offering a theoretical basis for regional water management, ecological protection, and sustainable development. Full article

In the context of the globalization process, the interplay between geopolitical dynamics and international trade fluctuations has had significant effects on global economic and business stability. Recent crises, such as the US–China trade war, the invasion of Ukraine, and the COVID-19 pandemic, have highlighted how changes in the structure of international trade can amplify the risks of business failure and reshape global competitiveness. This study aims to analyze in depth the transmission of business failure risk within the global trade network by assessing the sensitivity of industrial sectors in different countries to disruptive/critical/significant events. Through the integration of data from sources such as the World Trade Organization, national customs, and international relations research centers, a quantitative, exploratory, and descriptive approach based on graph theory, random forest, multivariate regression models, and neural networks is developed. This quantitative system makes it possible to identify patterns of risk propagation and to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of each country according to its commercial and financial structure. The mechanisms that relate geopolitical factors, such as trade sanctions and international conflicts, with the oscillations in the global market are analyzed. This study not only contributes to our understanding of how the macroeconomic environment influences business survival, but also provides analytical tools for strategic decision making. By providing an empirical and theoretical framework for early risk identification, it brings a novel perspective to academia and business, facilitating better adaptation to an increasingly volatile and uncertain business environment. Full article

Urban thermal environment challenges in China have made outdoor thermal comfort a key factor in evaluating spatial quality and livability. Building layout not only affects internal performance but also shapes the microclimate of surrounding outdoor spaces. The climatic characteristics of temperate monsoon climate regions significantly impact residents’ outdoor activities. Most existing studies focus solely on either the external thermal environment or the buildings themselves in isolation. This study focuses on Beijing, a representative city in the temperate monsoon climate zone, and explores block-scale spatial optimization using computational typology. The objective is to balance architectural performance with outdoor thermal comfort in both winter and summer. Optimization targets include the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), winter sunshine duration, and summer solar radiation. Results show winter UTCI can be optimized to −6.13 °C to −1.18 °C and summer UTCI to 28.19 °C to 29.17 °C, with greater optimization potential in winter (23.5% higher). Synergistic relationships are observed between winter comfort and sunshine duration (coefficient: 0.777) and between summer comfort and solar radiation (coefficient: 0.947). However, trade-offs exist between seasonal comfort indicators, with strong conflicts between winter and summer objectives. Two distinct form types—“low-south-high-north enclosed” for winter and “high-rise point-type low-density” for summer—are identified as effective for seasonal adaptation. The study proposes an integrated method combining data-driven generation, multi-objective optimization, and clustering-based decision-making. This approach moves beyond traditional empirical design, offering a quantitative and adaptable strategy for climate-responsive urban block planning and supporting low-carbon urban transformation. Full article

An adequate food supply is a core issue for sustainable development worldwide. Amid greater instability in the food supply triggered by more armed conflicts, trade disputes, and climate change, a decline in grain cultivation area still plagues many regions. China, a major food producer globally, is a case in point. The truth is that at the moment, the formulation and implementation of policies as well as academic discussions regarding this issue are predominantly based on the sown area of grains, overlooking the fundamental role co-played by population, yield efficiency, and sown area in determining food supply. Furthermore, the commonly used indicator, the non-grain cultivation rate, fails to directly reflect the impact of the phenomenon on the grain supply. To address these gaps, this study introduces trend-change detection and factor-contribution analysis, uses long-term grain sown area data to identify regions with significant grain retreat, and quantifies the relative influence of population shifts, crop yield improvements, and sown area changes on food supply. Key findings include the following: China’s total grain production maintained steady growth from 2003 to 2023, far exceeding conventional food security thresholds. Temporary reductions in grain sown area (2015–2019, 2021–2022) were offset by rising yields, with no substantial decline in supply. Twelve provinces/municipalities, Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hainan, exhibited substantial declines in grain plantation. However, Sichuan and Shaanxi achieved counter-trend growth in food supply, while Ningxia and Guizhou experienced frequent fluctuations. The sown area was not always the dominant factor in per capita grain availability. Yield increases neutralized cropland reduction in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Guizhou, and Ningxia, whereas population inflows outweighed the sown area effect in the other eight provinces. The study concludes that China’s grain cropland reduction has not yet posed a threat to national food security. That said, the spatial concentration of these affected regions and their ongoing output reductions may raise domestic grain redistribution costs and intensify inter-regional conflicts over cropland protection. Meanwhile, population influx plays a similarly important role to that of grain plantation decline in the grain supply. Considering that, we believe that more moderate measures should be adopted to address the shrinkage of grain planting areas, with pre-set food self-sufficiency standards. These measures include, but are not limited to, improving productivity and adopting integrated farming. Methodologically, this work lowers distortions from normal annual cropland fluctuations, enabling more precise identification of non-grain production zones. By quantifying the separate impacts of population, crop yield, and sown area changes, it supplements existing observations on grain cropland decline and provides better targeted suggestions on policy formulation and coordination. Full article

Complex feedback mechanisms and interdependencies exist among the water–energy–food–ecosystems (WEFE) nexus. In water-scarce regions, fluctuations in the supply or demand of any single subsystem can destabilize the others, with water shortages intensifying conflicts among food production, energy consumption, and ecological sustainability. Balancing the synergies and trade-offs within the WEFE system is therefore essential for achieving sustainable development. This study adopts the natural–social water cycle as the core process and develops a coupled simulation model of the WEFE (CSM-WEFE) system, integrating food production, ecological water replenishment, and energy consumption associated with water supply and use. Based on three performance indices—reliability, coupling coordination degree, and equilibrium—a coordinated sustainable development index (CSD) is constructed to quantify the performance of WEFE system under different scenarios. An integrated evaluation framework combining the CSM-WEFE and the CSD index is then proposed to assess the sustainability of WEFE systems. The framework is applied to the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, a representative water-scarce area in China. Results reveal that the current balance between water supply and socio-economic demand in the BTH region relies heavily on excessive groundwater extraction and the appropriation of ecological water resources. Pursuing food security goals further exacerbates groundwater overexploitation and ecological degradation, thereby undermining system coordination. In contrast, limiting groundwater use improves ecological conditions but increases regional water scarcity and reduces food self-sufficiency. Even with the full operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (Middle Route), the region still experiences a 16.4% water shortage. By integrating the CSM-WEFE model with the CSD evaluation approach, the proposed framework not only provides a robust tool for assessing WEFE system sustainability but also offers practical guidance for alleviating water shortages, enhancing food security, and improving ecological health in water-scarce regions. Full article

This study investigates the evolutionary mechanisms and equilibrium character-istics of the China–US trade dispute through an improved ecological competition model. By quantifying tariff policies as competition intensity regulators and introducing trade elasticity parameters, we construct a dynamic system that captures the nonlinear feedback between economic rivals. Key findings are as follows. (1) When both nations implement reciprocal tariff measures with similar economic sensitivities, the system converges to a stable equilibrium where bilateral economic outputs stabilize at reduced levels compared to pre-conflict states, provided the product of adjusted competition coefficients remains below critical thresholds. (2) Excessive tariff escalation beyond identifiable tipping points triggers winner-takes-all outcomes, validating the “Thucydides Trap” hypothesis in eco-nomic conflicts. (3) Empirical simulations using 2018–2023 trade data demonstrate that China’s tit-for-tat tariff strategy effectively maintains competitive balance, while domestic market expansion measures (evidenced by a 6.3% average annual growth in China’s do-mestic consumption) significantly mitigate trade diversion effects. The study establishes theoretical connections with optimal tariff theory and strategic trade policy literature while providing policymakers with quantitative tools to assess trade policy impacts. Our find-ings theoretically validate China’s policy combination of calibrated reciprocity and domestic demand stimulation, offering new insights into managing great-power economic competition. Full article

According to data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Ukraine was the fifth and ninth global producer and exporter of corn and wheat, respectively, before Russia’s invasion. The disruption of the supply chain in Ukraine in these food sectors due to the Russian–Ukrainian conflict can hamper global food security. Very little is known about how the war has impacted these important food sectors globally. This paper examines the global impact of the war on the corn and wheat sectors in the first year of the war and investigates the relationship between market vulnerability and trade ties with the conflicting regions. Analysis of FAO data shows that Ukraine suffered a 12.87% and 17.45% production decline in the corn and wheat sectors, respectively, compared to the 2012–2021 base years. Using the Acclimate economic network model, these shocks are applied to Ukraine’s corn and wheat network nodes to analyze their global impact. The production value and total losses are calculated and compared to the base year, both regionally and in some major global economic blocs. The results show that the corn sectors in Germany, Ukraine, Poland, and Belgium suffered the largest production value losses, while Ukraine, China, Venezuela, and Korea suffered the largest overall losses. In the wheat sector, Russia, Germany, Ukraine, and Canada suffered the largest production value losses, while Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and China suffered the largest overall losses. Overall, the corn sector was the hardest hit globally compared to the wheat sector, with the EU, the US, China, South America, and Africa being the hardest hit in the corn sector, while BRICS and Oceania were the hardest hit in the wheat sector. The study equally finds a strong correlation between increased regional food market vulnerability and Ukraine’s trade relations. These findings can contribute to better investment decisions, regional and sectoral emergency management planning, and the development of regulatory frameworks. Full article

What is the impact of geopolitics on the geometry of global trade? What is the key structural role that led to the emergence of the US–China trade bipolarity? Here, we study the geometry of international trade, taking into account not only the direct but also the indirect trade relations. We consider the self-weight of each country as an indicator of its intrinsic robustness to exogenous shocks. We assess the vulnerability of a country to potential demand or supply shocks based on the entropy (diversification) of its trade flows. By considering the indirect trade relations, we found that the key structural role that led to the emergence of the US–China trade bipolarity is that of the intermediary hub that acts as a “bridge” between different trade clusters. The US and China occupied key network positions of high betweenness centrality as early as 2010. As international trade was increasingly dependent on only these two intermediary trade hubs, this fact led to geopolitical tensions such as the US–China trade war. Therefore, betweenness centrality could serve as a structural indicator, forewarning of possible upcoming geopolitical tensions. The US–China trade bipolarity is also strongly present in self-weights, where a race in terms of their intrinsic robustness to exogenous shocks is more than evident. It is also interesting that the US and China are not only the top shock spreaders but also the most susceptible to shocks. However, China can act more as a shock spreader than a shock receiver, while for the USA, the opposite is true. Regarding the impact of geopolitics, we found that the Russia–Ukraine conflict forced Ukraine to diversify both its exports and imports, aiming to lower its vulnerability to possible shocks. Finally, we found that international trade is becoming increasingly oligopolistic, even when indirect trade relationships are taken into account, thus indicating that a “Deep Oligopoly” has formed. Full article

This study examines the integrated impacts of cyberattacks, geopolitical, and financial market volatility on rare earth markets during the 2014–2024 period, using Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression and wavelet analysis. By bridging critical gaps in the literature, this research provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the compounded effects of emerging risks on market dynamics. The analysis includes key market indices (SOLLIT, PICK, SPGSIN, GSPTXGM, MVREMXTR, and XME), alongside green energy prices, to capture cross-market dependencies. The findings reveal that financial volatility exerts the most persistent long-term influence, while geopolitical events, such as the US-China trade tensions and the Ukraine conflict, trigger significant market disruptions. Cyberattacks, although episodic, exacerbate short-term volatility, especially during global crises. Rising green energy prices further amplify vulnerabilities in supply chains, underscoring the interconnectedness of rare earth markets and the sustainable energy transition. This research provides actionable insights for integrated risk management strategies, emphasizing supply chain diversification, enhanced cybersecurity, and international cooperation to ensure market stability and resilience in the energy transition. Full article

Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) are a large carnivore, widely distributed in East, South, and Southeast Asia. However, they have experienced dramatic population decline across this range due to various anthropogenic threats. The great demand for bear parts in the black market exposes this species to intense pressure of being poached and then illegally traded. Meanwhile, the continuous expansion of anthropogenic land use results in the sharpening of human–bear conflicts. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive search and collected information of the poaching, illegal trade, and human–bear conflict events related to Asiatic black bears reported in China during 2010–2020. By systematically searching judicial adjudicative documents and news reports, we identified 351 (64 poaching, 221 illegal trade, and 90 conflict) events across the country. The results showed that Southwest China was a hotspot across all categories (41, 149 and 40 events, respectively). Bear paws were the most common type of bear parts found in illegal trade (52.1%), and the most frequently reported human–bear conflict form was human injury from bear attacks (at least 52 people injured and another 7 killed). By determining the status of black bears being poached, traded, and their conflicts with humans in China, these results will provide important insights into the further research and conservation of this iconic species. Full article

Realizing the multifunctional value of farmland is essential for regulating the pricing of farmland transfers and stabilizing the rural land market. However, in China, the mismatch between supply and demand leads to improper resource allocation, weakens the explicit value of farmland, and causes unreasonable transfer pricing mechanisms that threaten agricultural production and food security. This study develops an analytical framework to examine the relationship between farmland multifunction and transfer pricing from a supply–demand perspective. An evaluation index system is constructed, considering the physical, value, and material quantities. This study uses the matching index method and bivariate spatial autocorrelation to analyze the supply–demand match of farmland multifunction from 2014 to 2021 and its relationship with transfer prices. Additionally, management methods and strategies for dynamic zoning-based pricing under multifunctional matching trade-offs are proposed. The results show that: (1) There is significant heterogeneity in the supply and demand matching degree of different farmland functions in both space and time. The production and ecological functions of farmland are oversupplied, while the living functions are undersupplied. (2) Different spatial autocorrelation relationships exist between the degree of supply and demand matching of farmland functions and farmland transfer prices. Specifically, the supply and demand matching degrees of the production and living functions show a significant negative spatial correlation with farmland transfer prices. In contrast, the ecological function shows a significant positive spatial correlation with farmland transfer prices, which are continuously strengthening over time. (3) Based on the supply and demand matching situation of different farmland functions and the spatial autocorrelation of farmland transfer prices, nine types of regions are delineated for farmland functions. Among them, the surplus-coordinated development areas have the most cities, accounting for about 40%, with a wide distribution range. This study proposes zoning-based pricing instruments and management strategies. This research provides valuable insights for developing countries seeking to alleviate conflicts in multifunctional land use, enhance the sustainable protection of land resources, and improve land resource assessment frameworks. Full article

Today’s world is experiencing a great change that has not been seen in a hundred years, with a tense and complex world situation; under the influence of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, trade friction between China and the U.S., and other events, enterprises need to choose good tactics to achieve strategic development. Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) is an indicator that measures the non-financial performance of an enterprise; this article takes listed companies in China’s textile industry from 2015 to 2022 as a research sample and utilizes a bi-directional fixed-effect model that controls for time and individuals to empirically analyze the relationship between ESG performance and corporate total factor productivity (TFP). The results show the following: (1) the better the corporate ESG performance, the higher the TFP; (2) the mechanism test results show that corporate ESG performance promotes TFP by improving green innovation capacity and enhancing corporate human capital, and green innovation and human capital play a partially mediating role; (3) the moderation test shows that agency costs play a weakening role in ESG performance, positively affecting corporate total factor productivity; (4) the heterogeneity analyses found that enterprises are more significantly affected by ESG among non-state-owned enterprises and in the central region. The results of the study provide empirical evidence to guide textile enterprises to actively fulfill ESG performance to enhance enterprise total factor productivity and achieve high quality and sustainable development. Full article

The western region of China is a fundamental ecological protection barrier for China. The conflict between regional economic development and ecological environmental protection has always existed in the region. This study first evaluated the water–energy efficiency (WEE) of 11 provinces in western China from 2011 to 2019 using the super-slacks-based model with undesirable outputs and analyzed their spatiotemporal characteristics. It then investigated the influence of financial development level on WEE. The results indicate that (a) the WEE in Western China was at a relatively low level, showing an upward trend from 2011 to 2016 and fluctuating after 2016; (b) financial development levels had U-shaped impacts on the WEE of Western China, which reduced at first and then rose; (c) increasing technological innovation capabilities and trade openness had positive impacts on WEE in Western China, while urbanization level had a negative effect on WEE; and (d) an examination of robustness using two different methods showed that the test results are consistent with the above conclusions. Therefore, this study has robustness. We also put forward corresponding policy suggestions, such as increasing financial support for clean and low-carbon industries, increasing input in science and technology, vigorously developing cleaner and environmentally friendly foreign trade, and implementing a new type of urbanization strategy, to promote the WEE of Western China. Full article

Recent events, such as the financial crisis, oil price shocks or fluctuations, Brexit, the US–China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the subsequent energy crisis, have surged global economic policy uncertainty. As climate change has recently been more pronounced around the globe, discussions about climate policies and related uncertainties have also become a major concern. This study investigates the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on climate change (environmental degradation) for selected emerging and developed economies, expanding the IPAT framework and merging it with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The IPAT framework examines the impact (I) of population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T) on the environment, whereas the EKC hypothesis proposes an inverted U-shaped curve between affluence and environmental degradation. Two models were created and tested for emerging and developed countries, namely Model 1 with EPU and Model 2 with CPU. A Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is employed to investigate the interrelation between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and selected variables; namely the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, squared real GDP per capita, renewable share in consumption, the EPU, the CPU and population. Test results indicate that the EKC hypothesis is verified only in Model 1 and for emerging countries, whereas population escalates climate change in both country groups. Furthermore, in line with the consumption effect theorized earlier in the literature, EPU is negatively related to carbon emissions in emerging countries. Thus, the EPU leads to a decrease in the use of energy and pollution-intensive commodities and mitigates climate change in EMEs. Compatible with our ex-ante expectations, renewable energy consumption alleviates climate change in both country groups in the short term. In Model 2, with CPU, we find no evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis for any country groups. However, we reaffirm that renewable energy consumption decreases CO₂ emissions in developed countries, which is in support of the argument that energy transition holds the key to tackling climate change. Finally, CPU is associated with a decrease in CO₂ emissions in emerging countries in the short term, potentially leading to a reduction in overall economic activity and alleviating climate change. This might also be attributable to the fact that the decisions of economic agents substantially rely on current and future policy (both economic and climate) expectations. Overall, verifying the EKC hypothesis for emerging countries in Model 1, we might argue that there is good potential for emerging countries to save money and time on environmental costs via the adoption of clean technologies and related policies. Last but not least, on a global scale, energy transition with better utilization of renewable sources holds the key to tackling climate change and reducing emissions. Full article