Search Results (17)

Rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides pose a significant threat to human life and property. Early warning and risk assessment of these landslides are critical prerequisites for engineering control and disaster loss reduction. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model (TRIGRS)-Three-dimensional Slope Stability Analysis Tool (Scoops 3D) joint model can overcome the shortcomings of using a single TRIGRS model for hydrological analysis and a single Scoops 3D model for slope stability analysis. Landslide risk assessment based on expected economic loss, on the other hand, can overcome the issue of maintaining the risk level edge and sorting at the same level. In this paper, the TRIGRS model’s head pressures were put into the Scoops 3D model, with the southeast of Fangta, a town in Shaanxi province, China, as the study area. The relationship between the slope gradient and the number of grids in each stable grade was certified. The rainfall thresholds for landslides, based on both rainfall intensity and rainfall duration, were obtained by rerunning the TRIGRS-Scoops 3D joint model. The landslide range and land uses of each dangerous slope were determined by maximum likelihood classification, and then the expected economic loss was calculated. To verify the reliability of the TRIGRS-Scoops 3D joint model, the identified dangerous slopes were compared with the results from landslide susceptibility mapping. The results show that the unstable grids are concentrated within a slope gradient of 30° to 35°, and the landslide early warning levels are divided into Tier 3, Tier 2, and Tier 1 Warnings. The occurrence of shallow loess landslides is affected by both rainfall intensity and rainfall duration, and the combined effect should be considered in early warning. The distribution of both extreme susceptible grids and high susceptible grids across all 23 dangerous slopes demonstrates the reasonableness of the TRIGRS-Scoops 3D joint model. The landslide susceptible probability within some dangerous slopes exhibits spatial variability. The mapping relationship between the slope gradient and loess landslides is extremely complex. This paper can provide a theoretical basis for the early warning and risk management for rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides; the proposed method is also applicable to other regions with similar geological and meteorological conditions. Full article

In 2013, a Ms 6.6 earthquake occurred at the boundary of Min County and Zhang County, triggering numerous landslides. Notably, two landslides with significantly different sliding characteristics emerged less than 100 m apart in Yongguang Village, Min County. The eastern landslide was characterized by instability induced by seismic inertial forces, whereas the western landslide exhibited flow slides triggered by liquefaction in loess. To further analyze the causes of these landslides, this study employed a 1 m depth ground temperature survey to probe the shallow groundwater in the area, aiming to understand the distribution of shallow groundwater. Based on the results from the 1 m depth ground temperature survey, a random forest model was applied to regressively predict the initial groundwater levels. The TRIGRS model was utilized to evaluate the influence of pre-earthquake rainfall conditions on landslide stability, and the pore water pressure outputs from TRIGRS were integrated with the Scoops3D model to analyze landslide stability under seismic effects. The results indicate that the combination of the 1 m depth ground temperature survey with high-density electrical methods and random forest approaches effectively captures the initial groundwater levels across the region. Notably, the heavy rainfall occurring one day prior to the earthquake did not significantly reduce the stability of the landslide in Yongguang Village. Instead, the abundant groundwater in the source area of the western landslide, combined with several months of pre-earthquake rainfall, resulted in elevated groundwater levels that created favorable conditions for its occurrence. While the primary triggering factor for both landslides in Yongguang Village was the earthquake, the distinct topographic and groundwater conditions led to significantly different sliding characteristics under seismic influence at the same slope. Full article

Landslides pose a significant threat worldwide, leading to numerous fatalities and severe economic losses. The city of Manizales, located in the Colombian Andes, is particularly vulnerable due to its steep topography and permeable volcanic ash-derived soils. This study aims to assess landslide hazards in Manizales by integrating shallow planar and deep-seated circular failure mechanisms using physics-based models (TRIGRS and Scoops3D). By combining hazard zonation maps with rainfall thresholds calibrated through historical data, we provide a refined approach for early warning systems (EWS) in the region. Our results underscore the significance of the landslide hazard maps, which combine shallow planar and deep-seated circular failure scenarios. By categorizing urban areas into high, medium, and low-risk zones, we offer a practical framework for urban planning. Moreover, we developed physics-based rainfall thresholds for early landslide warning, simplifying their application while aiming to enhance regional predictive accuracy. This comprehensive approach equips local authorities with essential tools to mitigate landslide risks, refine hazard zoning, and strengthen early warning systems, promoting safer urban development in the Andean region and beyond, as the physics-based methods used are well-established and implemented globally. Full article

Debris flow can cause damage only when its discharge exceeds the drainage capacity of the prevention engineering. At present, most rainfall thresholds for debris flows mainly focus on the initiation of debris flow and do not adequately consider the magnitude and drainage measures of debris flows. These thresholds are likely to initiate numerous warnings that may not be related to hazardous processes. This study proposes a method for calculating the rainfall threshold that is related to a defined level of debris flow magnitude, over which certain damage may be caused. This method is constructed by using the transient rainfall infiltration analysis slope stability model (TRIGRS) and the fluid dynamics process simulation model (MassFlow). We first use the TRIGRS model to analyze slope stability in the study area and obtain the distribution of unstable slopes under different rainfall conditions. Afterward, the MassFlow model is employed to simulate the movement process of unstable slope units and to predict the depositional processes at the mouth of the catchment. Lastly a rainfall threshold is constructed by statistically analyzing the rainfall conditions that cause debris flows flushing out of the given drainage ditch. This method is useful to predict debris flow events of a hazardous magnitude, especially for areas with limited historical observational data. Full article

Heavy rainfall induces shallow landslides in the mountainous areas of China. There is a need for regional slope stability prediction to reduce the damage to infrastructure, residents, and the economy. This study attempts to demarcate areas prone to rainfall-induced shallow landslides using the transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based slope stability (TRIGRS) model under different rainfall conditions. After inputting the engineering geological and geotechnical characteristic data of the area in China, the slope stability was simulated and verified by a deformation monitoring landslide. The slope stability gradually declined under the influence of precipitation from 5–8 July 2021. Slope stability gradually decreased under the predicted rainfall intensity of 60 mm/d for 6 days. The percentage of the slope area with a factor of safety (F_S) less than 1.0 increased from 0.00% (1 d) to 3.18% (6 d). The study results could be used for hazards mitigation in this region. Full article

Rainfall-induced landslides pose a significant threat to the lives and property of residents in the southeast mountainous area. From 5 to 10 May 2016, Sanming City in Fujian Province, China, experienced a heavy rainfall event that caused massive landslides, leading to significant loss of life and property. Using high-resolution satellite imagery, we created a detailed inventory of landslides triggered by this event, which totaled 2665 across an area of 3700 km². The majority of landslides were small-scale, shallow and elongated, with a dominant distribution in Xiaqu town. We analyzed the correlations between the landslide abundance and topographic, geological and hydro-meteorological factors. Our results indicated that the landslide abundance index is related to the gradient of the hillslope, distance from a river and total rainfall. The landslide area density, i.e., LAD increases with the increase in these influencing factors and is described by an exponential or linear relationship. Among all lithological types, Sinian mica schist and quartz schist (Sn-s) were found to be the most prone to landslides, with over 35% of landslides occurring in just 10% of the area. Overall, the lithology and rainfall characteristics primarily control the abundance of landslides, followed by topography. To gain a better understanding of the triggering conditions for shallow landslides, we conducted a physically based spatio-temporal susceptibility assessment in the landslide abundance area. Our numerical simulations, using the MAT.TRIGRS tool, show that it can accurately reproduce the temporal evolution of the instability process of landslides triggered by this event. Although rainfall before 8 May may have contributed to decreased slope stability in the study area, the short duration of heavy rainfall on 8 May is believed to be the primary triggering factor for the occurrence of massive landslides. Full article

Shallow landslides due to hydro-meteorological factors are one of the most common destructive geological processes, which have become more frequent in recent years due to changes in rainfall frequency and intensity. The present study assessed a dynamic, physically based slope stability model, Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Slope Stability Model (TRIGRS), in Idukki district, Kerala, Western Ghats. The study compared the impact of hydrogeomechanical parameters derived from two different data sets, FAO soil texture and regionally available soil texture, on the simulation of the distribution and timing of shallow landslides. For assessing the landslide distribution, 1913 landslides were compared and true positive rates (TPRs) of 68% and 60% were obtained with a nine-day rainfall period for the FAO- and regional-based data sets, respectively. However, a false positive rate (FPR) of 36% and 31% was also seen, respectively. The timing of occurrence of nine landslide events was assessed, which were triggered in the second week of June 2018. Even though the distribution of eight landslides was accurately simulated, the timing of only three events was found to be accurate. The study concludes that the model simulations using parameters derived from either of the soil texture data sets are able to identify the location of the event. However, there is a need for including a high-spatial-resolution hydrogeomechanical parameter data set to improve the timing of landslide event modeling. Full article

Among the various predisposing factors of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, land use is constantly evolving, being linked to human activities. Between different land uses, improper agricultural practices can have a negative impact on slope stability. Indeed, unsustainable soil tillage can modify the mechanical properties of the soils, leading to a possible increase of the instability phenomena. However, the effects of soil tillage on slope stability are poorly investigated. To address this topic, the PG_TRIGRS model (a probabilistic, geostatistic-based extension of TRIGRS) was applied to a cultivated, landslide-prone area in central Italy, thoroughly studied and periodically monitored through systematic image analysis and field surveys. A heuristic approach was adopted to quantitatively evaluate the effect of soil tillage on the mechanical properties of the soil: after a first run of the model with unbiased parameters, the slope stability analysis was carried out assuming several percentages of reduction of the effective soil cohesion to mimic an increasing impact of soil tillage on the strength conditions. Then, a comparison between observed landslides and the spatial distribution of the probability of failure derived from the application of PG_TRIGRS was carried out. A back analysis with contingency matrix and skill scores was adopted to search for the best compromise between correct and incorrect model outcomes. The results show that soil tillage caused a 20 to 30% reduction in soil cohesion in the analyzed area. Full article

The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model has been widely used to define rainfall thresholds for triggering shallow landslides. In this study, the rainfall intensity(I)-duration(D) thresholds for multiple slope units of an area in Pu’an County, Guizhou Province, China were defined based on TRIGRS. Given that TRIGRS is used to simulate the slope stability under the conditions of a given increasing sequence of I-D data, if the slope reaches instability at I = a, D = b, it will also become unstable in the case of I = a, D > b or I > a, D = b. To explore the effect of these I-D data with the same I or D values on the definition of I-D thresholds and the best method to exclude these data, two screening methods were used to exclude the I-D data that caused instability in the TRIGTS simulation. First, I-D data with the same I values when D values are greater than a certain limit value were excluded. Second, several D values were selected to exclude I-D data with the same I values for a slope unit. Then, an I value was selected to exclude I-D data with the same D values. After screening, two different I-D thresholds were defined. The comparison with the thresholds defined without screening shows that the I-D data with the same I or D values will reduce the accuracy of thresholds. Moreover, the second screening method can entirely exclude these data. Full article

This paper presents the results of a research aimed at analysing the susceptibility to shallow landslides of a study area in the Calabria region (Southern Italy). These shallow landslides, which in some cases evolve as debris flows, periodically affect the study area, causing damage to structures and infrastructure. The involved soils come from the weathering of gneissic rocks and cover about 60% of the study area. To fulfil the goal of the research, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model was first used, assuming input data (including physical and mechanical parameters of soils) provided by the scientific literature. Then, the preliminary results obtained were used to properly locate in situ investigations that included sampling. Geotechnical laboratory tests allowed characterising the investigated soils, and related parameters were used as new input data of the TRIGRS model. The generated shallow landslide susceptibility scenario showed a good predictive capability based on the adoption of a cutoff-independent performance technique. Full article

In this study, we compare infinite slope and the three-dimensional stability analysis performed by SCOOPS 3D (software to analyze three-dimensional slope stability throughout a digital landscape). SCOOPS 3D is a model proposed by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS), the potentialities of which have still not been investigated sufficiently. The comparison between infinite slope and 3D slope stability analysis is carried out using the same hydrological analysis, which is performed with TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability model)—another model proposed by USGS. The SCOOPS 3D model requires definition of a series of numerical parameters that can have a significant impact on its own performance, for a given set of physical properties. In the study, we calibrate these numerical parameters through a multi-objective optimization based on genetic algorithms to maximize the model predictability performance in terms of statistics of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) confusion matrix. This comparison is carried out through an application on a real case study, a catchment in the Oltrepò Pavese (Italy), in which the areas of triggered landslides were accurately monitored during an extreme rainfall on 27–28 April 2009. Results show that the SCOOPS 3D model performs better than the 1D infinite slope stability analysis, as the ROC True Skill Statistic increases from 0.09 to 0.37. In comparison to other studies, we find the 1D model performs worse, likely for the availability of less detailed geological data. On the other side, for the 3D model we find even better results than the two other studies present to date in the scientific literature. This is to be attributed to the optimization process we proposed, which allows to have a greater gain of performance passing from the 1D to the 3D simulation, in comparison to the above-mentioned studies, where no optimization has been applied. Thus, our study contributes to improving the performances of landslide models, which still remain subject to many uncertainty factors. Full article

In Norway, shallow landslides are generally triggered by intense rainfall and/or snowmelt events. However, the interaction of hydrometeorological processes (e.g., precipitation and snowmelt) acting at different time scales, and the local variations of the terrain conditions (e.g., thickness of the surficial cover) are complex and often unknown. With the aim of better defining the triggering conditions of shallow landslides at a regional scale we used the physically based model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope stability) in an area located in upper Gudbrandsdalen valley in South-Eastern Norway. We performed numerical simulations to reconstruct two scenarios that triggered many landslides in the study area on 10 June 2011 and 22 May 2013. A large part of the work was dedicated to the parameterization of the numerical model. The initial soil-hydraulic conditions and the spatial variation of the surficial cover thickness have been evaluated applying different methods. To fully evaluate the accuracy of the model, ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves have been obtained comparing the safety factor maps with the source areas in the two periods of analysis. The results of the numerical simulations show the high susceptibility of the study area to the occurrence of shallow landslides and emphasize the importance of a proper model calibration for improving the reliability. Full article

After the 2008 M_w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, geological hazards occurred frequently in the southwest mountainous watershed. Frequent landslide disasters provide abundant sediment supply for mountain torrent disasters. The estimation of the potential landslide volume is essential for the risk assessment of mountain torrent disasters. In this study, a method of calculation that combines TRIGRS and the slope-units for estimating the landslide volume of a small mountainous watershed has been established. TRIGRS analyzes the watershed landslide safety factor under rainfall conditions based on grid-cells. The slope-units extract the results and combine the empirical power law formula to calculate the potential landslide volume. In this paper, we use this method to assess the landslide volume of the Longxi river basin. The results show that the area and volume estimates of the landslides are consistent with the results observed from satellite images and field surveys. This method can be used to study the impact of sediment transport on mountain torrent disasters in the basin. With different moisture content conditions, the results show that the soil moisture content and slope angle significantly affect the distribution and volume of potential landslides in the watershed, giving rise to the uncertainty of the landslide estimation. Full article

Increasingly, Johne’s disease of ruminants and human Crohn’s disease are regarded as the same infectious disease: paratuberculosis. Mycobacterium avium ss. paratuberculosis (MAP) is the cause of Johne’s and is the most commonly linked infectious cause of Crohn’s disease. Humans are broadly exposed to MAP in dairy products and in the environment. MAP has been found within granulomas such as Crohn’s disease and can stimulate autoantibodies in diseases such as type 1 diabetes (T1D) and Hashimoto’s thyroiditis. Moreover, beyond Crohn’s and T1D, MAP is increasingly associated with a host of autoimmune diseases. This article suggests near equivalency between paucibacillary Johne’s disease of ruminant animals and human Crohn’s disease and implicates MAP zoonosis beyond Crohn’s disease to include T1D. Full article

TRIGRS revealed the responses of the total pressure heads and factors of safety with a depth change under a rainfall infiltration occurring on the Daniao tribe’s hill. The depth distribution of the collapsed zone could be identified under the condition where the factors of safety Fs = 1, and the results could calculate the area and volume. Afterward, DEBRIS-2D used TRIGRS’s results to assess the hazard zone of the subsequent debris flow motion. In this study, the DTM variation analysis results from both of before and after the Daniao tribe’s landslide are used to validate TRIGRS’s simulation, the area and the volume of the collapse zone within 8% and 23% errors, respectively. The real disaster range was depicted from the aerial photo used to validate the hazard zone simulation of DEBRIS-2D within 25% errors. In spite of that, the hazard zone from the simulation still included the real disaster range. The combining method for a rainfall infiltration induced a shallow landslide and subsequent debris flow, which was well-matched on a real disaster range on the Daniao tribe’s hill. Therefore, we believe that the TRIGRS and DEBRIS-2D combining methods would provide a better solution for an assessment of a rainfall infiltration inducing shallow landslide and subsequent debris flow motion. TRIGRS could, therefore, provide the area and depth distribution of the collapsed zone, and DEBRIS-2D could use TRIGRS’s results for subsequent debris flow hazard assessment. Furthermore, these results would be of great help in the management of slope disaster prevention. Full article