Search Results (90)

Accurate Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a critical task in managing and operating smart grids. Existing STLF methods primarily rely on mathematical modeling or neural networks, often struggle to effectively capture the correlations between influencing factors and load data, and frequently lack interpretability. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an intelligent framework for STLF that combines a pattern extraction and attention mechanism, which leverages the characteristics of electricity consumption data. The proposed framework facilitates the integration of prior knowledge, identifies intrinsic data patterns, and more accurately maps the relationships between influencing factors and load patterns. Finally, we conduct experiments on real-world and publicly available datasets to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. Specifically, the proposed model improves the accuracy of STLF compared to that of existing methods and reduces the mean absolute percentage error by $2\%$ to $5\%$. The model performs superiorly on the real datasets, with root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error values of $0.810$ MWh and $7.09\%$. Full article

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for the efficient management of power systems, as it improves forecasting accuracy while optimizing power scheduling efficiency. Despite significant recent advancements in STLF models, forecasting accuracy in high-volatility regions remains a key challenge. To address this issue, this paper introduces a hybrid load forecasting model that integrates the Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) with the Stochastic Configuration Network (SCN). We first verify the Universal Approximation Property of SCN through experiments on two regression datasets. Subsequently, we reconstruct the features and input them into the LSTM for feature extraction. These extracted feature vectors are then used as inputs for SCN-based STLF. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the LSTM-SCN model against other baseline models using the Australian Electricity Load dataset. We also select five high-volatility regions in the test set to validate the LSTM-SCN model’s advantages in such scenarios. The results show that the LSTM-SCN model achieved an RMSE of 56.970, MAE of 43.033, and MAPE of 0.492% on the test set. Compared to the next best model, the LSTM-SCN model reduced errors by 6.016, 8.846, and 0.053% for RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, respectively. Additionally, the model consistently outperformed across all five high-volatility regions analyzed. These findings highlight its contribution to improved power system management, particularly in challenging high-volatility scenarios. Full article

Accurate and efficient short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for optimizing power system operations. This study proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model that integrates XGBoost-RF feature selection with a CNN-GRU neural network to enhance prediction performance while reducing model complexity. The XGBoost-RF approach is first applied to select the most predictive features from historical load data, weather conditions, and time-based variables. A convolutional neural network (CNN) is then employed to extract spatial features, while a gated recurrent unit (GRU) captures temporal dependencies for load forecasting. By leveraging a dual-channel structure that combines long- and short-term historical load trends, the proposed model significantly mitigates cumulative errors from recursive predictions. Experimental results demonstrate that the model achieves superior performance with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 53.29 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.56% on the test set. Compared to traditional models, the prediction accuracy improves by 28.140% to 110.146%. Additionally, the model exhibits strong robustness across different climatic conditions. This research validates the efficacy of integrating XGBoost-RF feature selection with CNN-GRU for STLF, offering reliable decision support for power system management. Full article

This paper presents a novel methodology for short-term load forecasting in the context of significant shifts in the daily load curve due to the rapid and extensive adoption of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). The proposed solution, built upon the Similar Days Method (SDM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), introduces several novelties: (1) selection of similar days based on hidden representations of day data using Autoencoder (AE); (2) enhancement of model generalization by utilizing a broader set of training examples; (3) incorporating the relative importance of training examples derived from the similarity measure during training; and (4) mitigation of the influence of outliers by applying an ensemble of ANN models trained with different data splits. The presented AE configuration and procedure for selecting similar days generated a higher-quality training dataset, which led to more robust predictions by the ANN model for days with unexpected deviations. Experiments were conducted on actual load data from a Serbian electrical power system, and the results were compared to predictions obtained by the field-proven STLF tool. The experiments demonstrated an improved performance of the presented solution on test days when the existing STLF tool had poor predictions over the past year. Full article

The accurate, rapid, and stable prediction of electrical energy consumption is essential for decision-making, energy management, efficient planning, and reliable power system operation. Errors in forecasting can lead to electricity shortages, wasted resources, power supply interruptions, and even grid failures. Accurate forecasting enables timely decisions for secure energy management. However, predicting future consumption is challenging due to the variable behavior of customers, requiring flexible models that capture random and complex patterns. Forecasting methods, both traditional and modern, often face challenges in achieving the desired level of accuracy. To address these shortcomings, this research presents a novel hybrid approach that combines a robust forecaster with an advanced optimization technique. Specifically, the FS-FCRBM-GWDO model has been developed to enhance the performance of short-term load forecasting (STLF), aiming to improve prediction accuracy and reliability. While some models excel in accuracy and others in convergence rate, both aspects are crucial. The main objective was to create a forecasting model that provides reliable, consistent, and precise predictions for effective energy management. This led to the development of a novel two-stage hybrid model. The first stage predicts electrical energy usage through four modules using deep learning, support vector machines, and optimization algorithms. The second stage optimizes energy management based on predicted consumption, focusing on reducing costs, managing demand surges, and balancing electricity expenses with customer inconvenience. This approach benefits both consumers and utility companies by lowering bills and enhancing power system stability. The simulation results validate the proposed model’s efficacy and efficiency compared to existing benchmark models. Full article

Special load customers such as electric vehicles are emerging in modern power systems. They lead to a higher penetration of special load patterns, raising difficulty for short-term load forecasting (STLF). We propose a hierarchical STLF framework to improve load forecasting accuracy. An improved adaptive K-means clustering algorithm is designed for load pattern recognition and avoiding local sub-optimal clustering centroids. We also design bi-directional long-short-term memory neural networks with an attention mechanism to filter important load information and perform load forecasting for each recognized load pattern. The numerical results on the public load dataset show that our proposed method effectively forecasts the residential load with a high accuracy. Full article

The high penetration of distributed energy resources poses significant challenges to the dispatch and operation of power systems. Improving the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) can optimize grid management, thus leading to increased economic and social benefits. Currently, some simple AI and hybrid models have issues to deal with and struggle with multivariate dependencies, long-term dependencies, and nonlinear relationships. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model for short-term load forecasting (STLF) that integrates multiple AI models with Lasso regression using the stacking technique. The base learners include ANN, XgBoost, LSTM, Stacked LSTM, and Bi-LSTM, while lasso regression serves as the metalearner. By considering factors such as temperature, rainfall, and daily electricity prices, the model aims to more accurately reflect real-world conditions and enhance predictive accuracy. Empirical analyses on real-world datasets from Australia and Spain show significant improvements in the forecasting accuracy, with a substantial reduction in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) compared to existing hybrid models and individual AI models. This research highlights the efficiency of the stacking technique in improving STLF accuracy, thus suggesting potential operational efficiency benefits for the power industry. Full article

Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays an essential role in sustainable energy development. Specifically, energy companies can efficiently plan and manage their generation capacity, lessening resource wastage and promoting the overall efficiency of power resource utilization. However, existing models cannot accurately capture the nonlinear features of electricity data, leading to a decline in the forecasting performance. To relieve this issue, this paper designs an innovative load forecasting method, named Prophet–CEEMDAN–ARBiLSTM, which consists of Prophet, Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), and the residual Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network. Specifically, this paper firstly employs the Prophet method to learn cyclic and trend features from input data, aiming to discern the influence of these features on the short-term electricity load. Then, the paper adopts CEEMDAN to decompose the residual series and yield components with distinct modalities. In the end, this paper designs the advanced residual BiLSTM (ARBiLSTM) block as the input of the above extracted features to obtain the forecasting results. By conducting multiple experiments on the New England public dataset, it demonstrates that the Prophet–CEEMDAN–ARBiLSTM method can achieve better performance compared with the existing Prophet-based ones. Full article

This review paper is a foundational resource for power distribution and management decisions, thoroughly examining short-term load forecasting (STLF) models within power systems. The study categorizes these models into three groups: statistical approaches, intelligent-computing-based methods, and hybrid models. Performance indicators are compared, revealing the superiority of heuristic search and population-based optimization learning algorithms integrated with artificial neural networks (ANNs) for STLF. However, challenges persist in ANN models, particularly in weight initialization and susceptibility to local minima. The investigation underscores the necessity for sophisticated predictive models to enhance forecasting accuracy, advocating for the efficacy of hybrid models incorporating multiple predictive approaches. Acknowledging the changing landscape, the focus shifts to STLF in smart grids, exploring the transformative potential of advanced power networks. Smart measurement devices and storage systems are pivotal in boosting STLF accuracy, enabling more efficient energy management and resource allocation in evolving smart grid technologies. In summary, this review provides a comprehensive analysis of contemporary predictive models and suggests that ANNs and hybrid models could be the most suitable methods to attain reliable and accurate STLF. However, further research is required, including considerations of network complexity, improved training techniques, convergence rates, and highly correlated inputs to enhance STLF model performance in modern power systems. Full article

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role in ensuring the safe, efficient, and economical operation of power systems. Accurate load forecasting provides numerous benefits for power suppliers, such as cost reduction, increased reliability, and informed decision-making. However, STLF is a complex task due to various factors, including non-linear trends, multiple seasonality, variable variance, and significant random interruptions in electricity demand time series. To address these challenges, advanced techniques and models are required. This study focuses on the development of an efficient short-term power load forecasting model using the random forest (RF) algorithm. RF combines regression trees through bagging and random subspace techniques to improve prediction accuracy and reduce model variability. The algorithm constructs a forest of trees using bootstrap samples and selects random feature subsets at each node to enhance diversity. Hyperparameters such as the number of trees, minimum sample leaf size, and maximum features for each split are tuned to optimize forecasting results. The proposed model was tested using historical hourly load data from four transformer substations supplying different campus areas of the University of Beira Interior, Portugal. The training data were from January 2018 to December 2021, while the data from 2022 were used for testing. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the RF model in forecasting short-term hourly and one day ahead load and its potential to enhance decision-making processes in smart grid operations. Full article

The building sector, known for its high energy consumption, needs to reduce its energy use due to rising greenhouse gas emissions. To attain this goal, a projection for domestic energy usage is needed. This work optimizes short-term load forecasting (STLF) in the building sector while considering several variables (energy consumption/generation, weather information, etc.) that impact energy use. It performs a comparative analysis of various machine learning (ML) models based on different data resolutions and time steps ahead (15 min, 30 min, and 1 h with 4-step-, 2-step-, and 1-step-ahead, respectively) to identify the most accurate prediction method. Performance assessment showed that models like histogram gradient-boosting regression (HGBR), light gradient-boosting machine regression (LGBMR), extra trees regression (ETR), ridge regression (RR), Bayesian ridge regression (BRR), and categorical boosting regression (CBR) outperformed others, each for a specific resolution. Model performance was reported using $R^2$, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of variation of RMSE (CVRMSE), normalized RMSE (NRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and execution time. The best overall model performance indicated that the resampled 1 h 1-step-ahead prediction was more accurate than the 15 min 4-step-ahead and the 30 min 2-step-ahead predictions. Findings reveal that data preparation is vital for the accuracy of prediction models and should be model-adjusted. Full article

Short-term electric load forecasting (STLF) plays a pivotal role in modern power system management, bolstering forecasting accuracy and efficiency. This enhancement assists power utilities in formulating robust operational strategies, consequently fostering economic and social advantages within the systems. Existing methods employed for STLF either exhibit poor forecasting performance or require longer computational time. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a hybrid learning approach comprising variational mode decomposition (VMD) and random vector functional link network (RVFL). The RVFL network, serving as a universal approximator, showcases remarkable accuracy and fast computation, owing to the randomly generated weights connecting input and hidden layers. Additionally, the direct links between hidden and output layers, combined with the availability of a closed-form solution for parameter computation, further contribute to its efficiency. The effectiveness of the proposed VMD-RVFL was assessed using electric load datasets obtained from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing it with existing benchmark forecasting methods using two performance indices such as root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). As a result, our proposed method requires less computational time and yielded accurate and robust prediction performance when compared with existing methods. Full article

Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for power grid systems to ensure reliability, security and cost efficiency. Thanks to advanced smart sensor technologies, time-series data related to power load can be captured for STLF. Recent research shows that deep neural networks (DNNs) are capable of achieving accurate STLP since they are effective in predicting nonlinear and complicated time-series data. To perform STLP, existing DNNs use time-varying dynamics of either past load consumption or past power correlated features such as weather, meteorology or date. However, the existing DNN approaches do not use the time-invariant features of users, such as building spaces, ages, isolation material, number of building floors or building purposes, to enhance STLF. In fact, those time-invariant features are correlated to user load consumption. Integrating time-invariant features enhances STLF. In this paper, a fuzzy clustering-based DNN is proposed by using both time-varying and time-invariant features to perform STLF. The fuzzy clustering first groups users with similar time-invariant behaviours. DNN models are then developed using past time-varying features. Since the time-invariant features have already been learned by the fuzzy clustering, the DNN model does not need to learn the time-invariant features; therefore, a simpler DNN model can be generated. In addition, the DNN model only learns the time-varying features of users in the same cluster; a more effective learning can be performed by the DNN and more accurate predictions can be achieved. The performance of the proposed fuzzy clustering-based DNN is evaluated by performing STLF, where both time-varying features and time-invariant features are included. Experimental results show that the proposed fuzzy clustering-based DNN outperforms the commonly used long short-term memory networks and convolution neural networks. Full article

Deep learning (DL) networks are a popular choice for short-term load forecasting (STLF) in the residential sector. Hybrid DL methodologies based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) have a higher forecasting accuracy than conventional statistical STLF techniques for different types of single-household load series. However, existing load forecasting methodologies are often inefficient when a high load demand persists for a few hours in a day. Peak load consumption is explicitly depicted as a tail in the probability distribution function (PDF) of the load series. Due to the diverse and uncertain nature of peak load demands, DL methodologies have difficulty maintaining consistent forecasting results, particularly when the PDF of the load series has a longer tail. This paper proposes a multihousehold load forecasting strategy based on the collective moment measure (CMM) (which is obtained from the PDF of the load series), data augmentation, and a CNN. Each load series was compared and ordered through CMM indexing, which helped maintain a minimum or constant shifting variance in the dataset inputted to the CNN. Data augmentation was used to enlarge the input dataset and solve the existing data requirement issues of the CNN. With the ordered load series and data augmentation strategy, the simulation results demonstrated a significant improvement in the performance of both single-household and multihousehold load forecasting. The proposed method predicts day-ahead multihousehold loads simultaneously and compares the results based on a single household. The forecasting performance of the proposed method for six different household groups with 10, 20, 30, 50, 80, and 100 household load series was evaluated and compared with those of existing methodologies. The mean absolute percentage error of the prediction results for each multihousehold load series could be improved by more than 3%. This study can help advance the application of DL methods for household load prediction under high-load-demand conditions. Full article

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a crucial role in the planning, management, and stability of a country’s power system operation. In this study, we have developed a novel approach that can simultaneously predict the load demand of different regions in Bangladesh. When making predictions for loads from multiple locations simultaneously, the overall accuracy of the forecast can be improved by incorporating features from the various areas while reducing the complexity of using multiple models. Accurate and timely load predictions for specific regions with distinct demographics and economic characteristics can assist transmission and distribution companies in properly allocating their resources. Bangladesh, being a relatively small country, is divided into nine distinct power zones for electricity transmission across the nation. In this study, we have proposed a hybrid model, combining the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), designed to forecast load demand seven days ahead for each of the nine power zones simultaneously. For our study, nine years of data from a historical electricity demand dataset (from January 2014 to April 2023) are collected from the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) website. Considering the nonstationary characteristics of the dataset, the Interquartile Range (IQR) method and load averaging are employed to deal effectively with the outliers. Then, for more granularity, this data set has been augmented with interpolation at every 1 h interval. The proposed CNN-GRU model, trained on this augmented and refined dataset, is evaluated against established algorithms in the literature, including Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM), GRU, CNN-LSTM, CNN-GRU, and Transformer-based algorithms. Compared to other approaches, the proposed technique demonstrated superior forecasting accuracy in terms of mean absolute performance error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). The dataset and the source code are openly accessible to motivate further research. Full article