Search Results (144)

Since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022, Ukraine’s agricultural production has faced significant disruption, leading to widespread cropland abandonment. These croplands were abandoned at different stages, primarily due to war-related destruction and displacement of people. Existing methods for detecting abandoned cropland fail to account for crop type differences and distinguish abandonment stages, leading to inaccuracies. Therefore, this study proposes a novel framework combining crop-type classification with the Bias-weighted Time-Weighted Dynamic Time Warping (BTWDTW) method, distinguishing between sowing and harvest abandonment. Additionally, the proposed framework improves accuracy by integrating a more nuanced analysis of crop-specific patterns, thus offering more precise insights into abandonment dynamics. The overall accuracy of the proposed method reached 88.9%. The results reveal a V-shaped trajectory of cropland abandonment, with abandoned areas increasing from 28,184 km² in 2022 to 33,278 km² in 2024, with 2023 showing an abandoned area of 24,007.65 km². Spatially, about 70% of sowing abandonment occurred in high-conflict areas, with hotspots of unplanted abandonment shifting from southern Ukraine to the northeast, while unharvested abandonment was observed across the entire country. Significant variations were found across crop types, with maize experiencing the highest rate of unharvested abandonment, while wheat exhibited a more balanced pattern of sowing and harvest losses. The proposed method and results provide valuable insights for post-conflict agricultural recovery and decision-making in recovery planning. Full article

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly altered the global geopolitical landscape. Owing to its geographical proximity, the conflict has had a considerable impact on Europe. Marked by the professionalisation and democratisation of technology, it has underscored the growing significance of hybrid warfare, in which disinformation and propaganda serve as additional instruments of war. Within this context, the aim of this article is to examine the characteristics of false information related to the war between Russia and Ukraine in four European countries between 2022 and 2023. To this end, a content analysis of 297 hoaxes was conducted across eight fact-checking platforms, complemented by ten in-depth interviews with specialised professionals. The findings indicate that disinformation is characterised by viral audiovisual hoaxes, particularly on Facebook and X (formerly Twitter), with a notable surge in disinformation flows at the onset of the invasion. In the early months, misleading content predominantly consisted of decontextualised images of the conflict, whereas a year later, the focus shifted to narratives concerning international support and alliances. The primary objective of this disinformation is to polarise public opinion against a perceived common enemy. The conclusions provide a broader and more nuanced understanding of wartime disinformation within the European context. Full article

Global financial markets have experienced significant volatility during crises, particularly COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, prompting questions about how regional markets respond to such shocks. Previous research highlights the influence of crises on stock market volatility, focusing on individual events or global markets, but less is known about the comparative dynamics within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. Our study investigated volatility and asymmetric behavior within GCC stock markets during both crises. Furthermore, the econometric model E-GARCH(1,1) was applied to the daily frequency data of financial stock market returns from 11 March 2020 to 31 July 2023. This study examined volatility fluctuation patterns and provides a comparative assessment of GCC stock markets’ behavior during crises. Our findings reveal varying degrees of market volatility across the region during the COVID-19 crisis, with Qatar and the UAE exhibiting the highest levels of volatility persistence. In contrast, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has had a distinct effect on GCC markets, with Oman exhibiting the highest volatility persistence and Kuwait having the lowest volatility persistence. This study provides significant insights for policymakers and investors in managing risk and enhancing market resilience during economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Full article

This study investigates the systemic tail dependence among biodiversity, clean energy, and financial transition assets using a novel partial correlation-based network approach. Analyzing eleven indices from 2019 to 2025, we capture dynamic connectedness across normal and extreme market conditions. Empirical findings indicate that clean energy assets form a central hub of connectedness, while biodiversity-linked instruments increasingly influence systemic behavior under stress. Events such as the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, the Russia–Ukraine war, and El Niño intensify these dynamics. Compared to the traditional Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (GFEVD) framework, our approach better detects short-term shocks, offering actionable insights for climate-aware investment and risk management. Full article

Putin’s Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and launched a massive invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This study is predicated on framing theory, which posits that the media contribute to the creation of individuals’ perceived reality. We analyzed how the European press presented Russian President Vladimir Putin during both episodes. Content analysis was used to examine a sample of 1009 opinion articles and editorials published in two leading newspapers in each of the five largest European economies. Subsequently, we quantified the frequency of the predominant frames as well as the tone (positive, neutral, or negative) the articles struck towards Putin. The results show that many more articles were published in 2022 than in 2014, and that the degree of negative views of Putin is also more pronounced in 2022. In both instances, historical motives were most often employed to frame Putin’s actions, such as Putin’s urge to reassert Russian influence in the former Soviet space and his reaction to the alleged lack of recognition of Russia as a superpower. Full article

Globalization and the spread of technological innovations have made world markets and economies increasingly unified and conditioned by international trade, not only for sales markets but above all for the supply of raw materials necessary for the functioning of the production complex of each country. Alongside oil and gold, the main commodities traded include industrial metals, such as aluminum and copper, mineral products such as gas, electrical and electronic components, agricultural products, and precious metals. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine tested the unification of markets, given that these are countries with notable raw materials and are strongly dedicated to exports. This suggests that commodity prices were able to influence the stock markets, especially in the countries most closely linked to the two belligerents in terms of import-export. Given the importance of industrial metals in this period of energy transition, the aim of our study is to analyze whether Industrial Metals volatility affects G7 stock markets. To this end, the BEKK-GARCH model is used. The sample period spans from 3 January 2018 to 17 September 2024. The results show that lagged shocks and volatility significantly and positively influence the current conditional volatility of commodity and stock returns during all periods. In fact, past shocks inversely influence the current volatility of stock indices in periods when external events disrupt financial markets. The results show a non-linear and positive impact of commodity volatility on the implied volatility of the stock markets. The findings suggest that the war significantly affected stock prices and exacerbated volatility, so investors should diversify their portfolios to maximize returns and reduce risk differently in times of crisis, and a lack of diversification of raw materials is a risky factor for investors. Full article

This article examines the role of religion in Russia’s national security system through the lens of ontological security, assessing whether contemporary Russia is undergoing a process of desecularisation or, conversely, an intensified form of secularisation. Employing the theoretical framework of ontological security, this study argues that Russia’s securitisation of religion serves as a mechanism for consolidating state control, legitimising authoritarian governance, and constructing a distinct civilisational identity in opposition to Western liberalism. The Russian Orthodox Church, rather than functioning as an autonomous religious institution, has been absorbed into the state apparatus, where it operates as an instrument of state ideology. Religious rhetoric permeates Russian strategic security documents, reinforcing narratives of national exceptionalism, historical continuity, and moral superiority, particularly in justifying Russia’s geopolitical ambitions and military actions, including its war against Ukraine. The analysis challenges prevailing interpretations of religious resurgence in Russia, arguing that the increasing presence of religion in public life does not necessarily signify desecularisation. Instead, the instrumentalisation of religion for political and security purposes suggests a process of extreme secularisation, wherein religious institutions lose their autonomy and doctrinal substance, becoming tools of state power. Full article

Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, which escalated into full-scale military confrontation in February 2022, originated in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the backing of pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. However, this war extends beyond bilateral hostilities, reflecting a broader geopolitical confrontation with the West that aligns with Vladimir Putin’s strategic vision, as signalled in his 2007 Munich Security Conference speech. Russian security doctrines have consistently framed the West as an existential threat, a perception reinforced by state-controlled media. This study examines the role of Russian state media in shaping public perceptions of the West between 2014 and 2022. It explores how Russian media, particularly RIA Novosti, constructed adversarial narratives about Latvia, Poland, and Serbia within the framework of Russian security policy. Through qualitative content analysis, the research investigates the alignment of media narratives with official strategic objectives, the portrayal of Western nations as threats, and the intended audience of these narratives. The findings underscore the integral role of state-controlled media in Russia’s security strategy, highlighting an increasing consolidation of media control to sustain domestic legitimacy and justify external aggression. As Russia faces growing challenges, media restrictions are expected to intensify, reinforcing state-driven narratives and information isolation. Full article

This study is the first to use the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt Change, Seasonality, and Trend (BEAST) algorithm to detect trend change points in the nexuses between the green bond index (Green Bond) and WTI of crude oil, gasoline, as well as natural gas futures. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war are identified as common significant trend change points, and the total sample is subsequently divided into three stages based on these points. Utilizing a skewed MF-DCCA method, this study analyzed the skewed multifractal characteristics between the Green Bond and the energy futures across these stages. The results revealed that both the multifractal characteristics and risk levels experienced significant changes across different periods, exhibiting skewed multifractality. Specifically, from the pre-pandemic period to the post-Russia–Ukraine conflict period, the multifractal features and risk of the Green Bond and WTI and Green Bond and Gasoline groups first declined and then increased, while the Green Bond and Natural Gas group displayed an opposite trend, showing an initial increase followed by a decline. A portfolio analysis further indicated that Green Bond provided effective hedging against all three types of energy futures, particularly during crisis periods. Notably, the portfolios constructed using the Mean-MF-DCCA model, which incorporated multifractal features, outperformed those constructed by traditional portfolio models. These findings offered new insights into the dynamic characteristics of the Green Bond and energy futures markets and provided important policy implications for portfolio optimization and risk management strategies. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war have struck the world’s energy markets. This study analyzed how the recent unstable fossil fuel markets impacted the Japanese electricity contracts, classified as extra-high-, high-, and low-voltage contracts. Multiple structural break tests were conducted to endogenously determine breaks affecting electricity prices during January 2019 to November 2022. By incorporating the effects of these breaks in the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the study analyzed the effects of natural gas, coal, and crude oil prices on the types of electricity contract prices. The results of the analyses indicated a surge in electricity prices for low- and high-voltage contracts driven by an increase in natural gas. The results imply the importance of providing proper financial support to mitigate the effects of soaring electricity prices and implementing policies to diversify the electricity generation mix in Japan. Full article

This study empirically investigates the impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war on the performance of brown and green stocks in Europe. Analyzing stocks listed on exchanges in 25 European countries, we find that, prior to this war, stocks of more energy-dependent firms (brown stocks) yielded higher returns compared to those of less energy-dependent firms (green stocks). However, after the unexpected Russian invasion, brown stocks underperformed relative to green stocks. As the conflict reached a stalemate and energy supplies were restored, brown stocks regained their advantage over green stocks. Additionally, brown stocks exhibited greater volatility following the invasion. Utilizing various factor models, we identify a pronounced negative energy risk premium during the initial Russia–Ukraine war outbreak period. This study highlights the dynamic stock market responses to energy supply and regulatory changes in Europe, reflecting the market’s evolving perception of energy supply risks and regulatory risks linked to the transition towards a net-zero economy. Full article

This study aims to reveal the network connectedness between the volatilities of Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies (EAGLEs) stock exchanges with the frequency-based TVP-VAR connectedness approach. Connectedness results were obtained in short (1–5 days) and long (5-inf) period frequencies among the volatilities obtained with the Garman–Klass volatility estimator. According to the dynamic TCI results, connectivity peaked during the COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine War periods. BVSP is the most dominant transmitter of the network and spreads the most effect to the emerging markets. As a result of the pairwise metrics, SSE has the lowest values and is positioned as a relatively independent market in the network. In particular, SSE has almost no connection with BIST in the short term, while it has a more significant effect on BIST in the long term. Moreover, the connectedness metrics show that MOEX is in a neutral position in the network and is largely affected by its internal dynamics. Full article

The Mandate of the XXV World Russian People’s Council of 27 March 2024 framed the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine as a “holy war”. This paper presents an in-depth textual analysis of the Mandate followed by an extended thematic and contextual analysis. The findings indicate that the Mandate’s mainstream discourses of eschatological–apocalyptic holy war and katechon state were not previously expressed at the level of official church leadership. They contribute to the ideological escalation of the Russian confrontation with Ukraine and the West around declared traditional values and the holy mission of the Russian people, while the involvement of Orthodoxy in the Russian ‘holy war’ narrative is neither exclusive of other religious referents nor of disbelief in ecclesial doctrine. The main referent of the Self (and correspondingly, of the sacred) is the (Russian) ‘nation’ or ‘people’, for which ‘spiritual’ and ‘civilizational’ are comprehensive religious markers of cultural identity. While two religious adversaries of the Russian geopolitical agenda of Ukraine—the Ecumenical Patriarchate and Ukrainian Orthodoxy—are not directly mentioned in the Mandate, it nevertheless attempts to re-formulate an Orthodox ‘just war’ theory, intensifies antagonistic inter-Orthodox relations in the Russia–Ukraine dimension and strengthens the resolve of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) and the Russian Federation to retain Ukraine’s Orthodox Church as an exclusively Russian space. Full article

In the current context of sustainability management and energy insecurity, amplified by the military instability determined by the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the increasingly frequent occurrence of a series of plausible scenarios for disasters or energy blackouts worldwide, this work is a real and applicable model for regional states that would like to critically analyze the situation of their energy security through identifying all the plausible risk scenarios targeting the energy critical infrastructures. The study has identified and assessed two of the most plausible risk scenarios (a natural disaster and a terrorist attack) in the case of a strategic power substation of 220 kV, 400 kV, or 750 kV undergoing a blackout effect. After having assessed the risks, the safety strategy for Romania’s national power system has been elaborated together with the safety strategy for the European Power system-ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity). The results of the study match other specialized works from different European countries and might represent a model for other types of energy safety risk assessments and for other types of critical infrastructures that are vital for the modern European society and for sustainability management. Full article

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also ignited a battleground in the domain of information. The conflict has been accompanied by a relentless disinformation offensive designed to manipulate public opinion and undermine democratic processes. This paper deals with the role of academia and scholars in focusing this information warfare. This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of scientific articles to examine how researchers and institutions have addressed fact-checking initiatives. To this end, performance analysis and literature review are combined to observe the state of academic investigations on fact-checking during the first thousand days of war in Ukraine (from 24 February 2022 to 19 November 2024). To do this, we identified 595 fact-checking articles in the Web of Science database within the “Social Sciences” category and narrowed the focus to 270 articles in the field of “Communication”. Finally, through an in-depth literature review of eight manuscripts, we seek to understand the specific strategies employed by academics to address the conflict between Russia and Ukraine through fact-checking. Our findings suggest that fact-checking research on the Russia–Ukraine war predominantly examines the impact of disinformation in conflict contexts, the role of media literacy in countering false narratives, and the contribution of citizen journalism to verification efforts. These conclusions can shed light on the crucial role of academia in safeguarding truth and fostering informed public debate in an era of information overload and manipulation. Full article