Search Results (1,559)

Earthquakes, as one of the most destructive natural disasters, often cause significant casualties and severe economic losses. Accurate prediction of earthquake fatalities is of great importance for pre-disaster prevention and mitigation planning, as well as post-disaster emergency response deployment. To address the challenges of small sample sizes, high dimensionality, and strong nonlinearity in earthquake fatality prediction, this paper proposes an integrated modeling approach (PCA-IWOA-XGBoost) combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The method first employs PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the influencing factor data, eliminating redundant information and improving modeling efficiency. Subsequently, the IWOA is used to intelligently optimize key hyperparameters of the XGBoost model, enhancing the prediction accuracy and stability. Using 42 major earthquake events in China from 1970 to 2025 as a case study, covering regions including the west (e.g., Tonghai in Yunnan, Wenchuan, Jiuzhaigou), central (e.g., Lushan in Sichuan, Ya’an), east (e.g., Tangshan, Yingkou), north (e.g., Baotou in Inner Mongolia, Helinger), northwest (e.g., Jiashi in Xinjiang, Wushi, Yongdeng in Gansu), and southwest (e.g., Lancang in Yunnan, Lijiang, Ludian), the empirical results showed that the PCA-IWOA-XGBoost model achieved an average test set accuracy of 97.0%, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.996, a root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) reduced to 4.410 and 3.430, respectively, and a residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 21.090. These results significantly outperformed the baseline XGBoost, PCA-XGBoost, and IWOA-XGBoost models, providing improved technical support for earthquake disaster risk assessment and emergency response. Full article

Background/Objectives: Wilson’s disease (WD) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder of copper metabolism that results in hepatic, neurological, and psychiatric manifestations. Despite being described globally, data from the Middle East remains limited. This study presents the first comprehensive national cohort analysis of WD in Oman, examining clinical features, diagnostic challenges, treatment patterns, and long-term outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 36 Omani patients diagnosed with WD between 2013 and 2020 at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital using AASLD diagnostic criteria. Clinical presentation, biochemical parameters, treatment regimens, and progression-free survival were analyzed. Results: The median age at diagnosis was 14.5 years, with a slight female predominance (55.6%). Clinical presentation varied: 25% had hepatic symptoms, 22.2% had mixed hepatic-neurological features, and 16.7% presented with neurological symptoms alone. Asymptomatic cases identified via family screening accounted for 33.3%. Diagnostic delays were most pronounced among patients presenting with neurological symptoms. A positive family history was reported in 88.9% of cases, suggesting strong familial clustering despite a low rate of consanguinity (5.6%). Regional distribution was concentrated in Ash Sharqiyah North and Muscat. Chelation therapy with trientine or penicillamine, often combined with zinc, was the mainstay of treatment. Treatment adherence was significantly associated with improved progression-free survival (p = 0.012). Conclusions: WD in Oman is marked by heterogeneous presentations, frequent diagnostic delays, and strong familial clustering. Early detection through cascade screening and sustained treatment adherence are critical for favorable outcomes. These findings support the need for national screening policies and structured long-term care models for WD in the region. Full article

This study evaluates the competitiveness and sustainable development prospects of French-speaking African countries by constructing a comprehensive framework integrating the TOPSIS method and adaptive LASSO algorithm. Using multivariate data from sources such as the World Bank, 30 indicators covering core, basic, and auxiliary competitiveness were selected to quantitatively analyze the competitiveness of 26 French-speaking African countries. Results show that their comprehensive competitiveness exhibits spatial patterns of “high in the north and south, low in the east and west” and “high in coastal areas, low in inland areas”. Algeria, Morocco, and six other countries demonstrate high competitiveness, while Central African countries generally show low competitiveness. The adaptive LASSO algorithm identifies three key influencing factors, including the proportion of R&D expenditure to GDP, high-tech exports, and total reserves, as well as five secondary key factors, including the number of patent applications and total number of domestic listed companies, revealing that scientific and technological investment, financial strength, and innovation transformation capabilities are core constraints. Based on these findings, sustainable development strategies are proposed, such as strengthening scientific and technological research and development and innovation transformation, optimizing financial reserves and capital markets, and promoting China–Africa collaborative cooperation, providing decision-making references for competitiveness improvement and regional cooperation of French-speaking African countries under the background of the “Belt and Road Initiative”. Full article

Enhancing market integration levels is crucial for advancing sustainable regional collaborative development and achieving ecological protection and high-quality development goals within the Yellow River Basin, fostering a balance between economic efficiency, social equity, and environmental resilience. This study analyzed the retail price data of goods from prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022, employing the relative price method to measure the market integration index. Additionally, it examined the temporal and spatial evolution patterns and driving factors using the Dagum Gini coefficient and panel regression models. The results indicate the following. (1) The market integration index of the Yellow River Basin shows a fluctuating upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 9.8%. The spatial pattern generally reflects a situation where the east is relatively high and the west is relatively low, as well as the south being higher than the north. (2) Regional disparities are gradually diminishing, with the overall Gini coefficient decreasing from 0.153 to 0.104. However, internal differences within the downstream and midstream areas have become prominent, and contribution rate analysis reveals that super-variable density has replaced between-group disparities as the primary source. (3) Upgrading the industrial structure and enhancing the level of economic development are the core driving forces, while financial support and digital infrastructure significantly accelerate the integration process. Conversely, the level of openness exhibits a phase-specific negative impact. We propose policy emphasizing the need to strengthen development in the upper reach of the Yellow River Basin, further improve interregional collaborative innovation mechanisms, and enhance cross-regional coordination among multicenter network nodes. Full article

The precise characterization of surface rupture zones and associated co-seismic displacement fields from large earthquakes provides critical insights into seismic rupture mechanisms, earthquake dynamics, and hazard assessments. Stereo-photogrammetric digital elevation models (DEMs), produced from high-resolution satellite stereo imagery, offer reliable global datasets that are suitable for the detailed extraction and quantification of vertical co-seismic displacements. In this study, we utilized pre- and post-event WorldView-2 stereo images of the 2024 Ms7.1 Wushi earthquake in Xinjiang to generate DEMs with a spatial resolution of 0.5 m and corresponding terrain point clouds with an average density of approximately 4 points/m². Subsequently, we applied the Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm to perform differencing analysis on these datasets. Special care was taken to reduce influences from terrain changes such as vegetation growth and anthropogenic structures. Ultimately, by maintaining sufficient spatial detail, we obtained a three-dimensional co-seismic displacement field with a resolution of 15 m within grid cells measuring 30 m near the fault trace. The results indicate a clear vertical displacement distribution pattern along the causative sinistral–thrust fault, exhibiting alternating uplift and subsidence zones that follow a characteristic “high-in-center and low-at-ends” profile, along with localized peak displacement clusters. Vertical displacements range from approximately 0.2 to 1.4 m, with a maximum displacement of ~1.46 m located in the piedmont region north of the Qialemati River, near the transition between alluvial fan deposits and bedrock. Horizontal displacement components in the east-west and north-south directions are negligible, consistent with focal mechanism solutions and surface rupture observations from field investigations. The successful extraction of this high-resolution vertical displacement field validates the efficacy of satellite-based high-resolution stereo-imaging methods for overcoming the limitations of GNSS and InSAR techniques in characterizing near-field surface displacements associated with earthquake ruptures. Moreover, this dataset provides robust constraints for investigating fault-slip mechanisms within near-surface geological contexts. Full article

Anoplophora glabripennis (Asian longhorned beetle, ALB) (Motschulsky, 1854) is a local forest pest in China. Although the suitable area for this pest has some research history, it does not accurately predict the future distribution area of ALB. Accurate prediction of its suitable area can help control the harm caused by ALB more effectively. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy model to predict the suitable area for ALB. Moreover, the prediction results revealed that ALB is distributed mainly in northern, eastern, central, southern, southwestern, and northwestern China, and its high-fit areas are located mainly in northern, northwestern, and southwestern China. The average minimum temperature in September, precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), the average maximum temperature in April, and average precipitation in October had the greatest influence on ALB. The greatest distribution probabilities were observed at the September average minimum temperature of 16 °C, the precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) of 130%, the April average maximum temperature of 14 °C, and the October average precipitation of 30 mm. Furthermore, with climate change, the non-suitability area for the ALB will show a decreasing trend in the future. The intermediate suitability area will increase, while the low and high suitability areas will first increase and then decrease. Taken together, the potentially suitable areas for ALB in China include the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and the Shanghai region in North China and East China, providing a deeper understanding of ALB control. Full article

The planktonic pteropod Limacina helicina is increasingly studied as a bioindicator of climate-driven changes in polar marine ecosystems. Although broadly distributed across the Arctic Basin and the North Pacific, its population structure and dispersal pathways remain poorly understood, especially in the Siberian Arctic. We analyzed mitochondrial COI sequences from populations sampled in the Barents, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and White Seas, as well as adjacent Pacific regions. Three major haplogroups (H1, H2, H3) were identified with distinct spatial patterns. H1 is widespread, occurring across the Pacific and most Arctic seas except the White Sea. H2 is confined to the western Arctic shelves (Barents–Kara–Laptev), and H3 is unique to the White Sea. We found a pronounced genetic discontinuity corresponding to hydrographic barriers, particularly the strong freshwater inflow from the Lena River, which restricts eastward dispersal of H2 from the Laptev to the East Siberian Sea. These patterns suggest postglacial expansions from geographically separated populations that survived the Last Glacial Maximum in isolated marine regions. The White Sea population is highly isolated and genetically distinct. Our results highlight how both glacial history and modern oceanography shape Arctic plankton diversity and define biogeographic boundaries in a rapidly changing climate. Full article

During a prolonged domestication and environmental selection, Brassica rapa has formed diverse morphological types during a cultivation process of up to 8000 years, such as root-type turnips (Brassica rapa var. rapa), leaf-type Chinese cabbage (Brassica rapa var. pekinensis), oil-type rapeseed (Brassica rapa L.), and other rich types. China is one of the origins of Brassica rapa L., which is spread all over the east, west, south, and north of China. Studying its origin and evolution holds significant importance for unraveling the cultivation history of Chinese oilseed crops, intraspecific evolutionary relationships, and the utilization value of genetic resources. This article summarizes the cultivation history, evolution, classification research progress, and germplasm resource diversity of Brassica rapa var. oleifera in China. Combining karyotype analysis, genomic information, and wild relatives of Brassica rapa var. oleifera discovered on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, it is proposed that Brassica rapa var. oleifera has the characteristic of polycentric origin, and Gansu Province in China is one of the earliest regions for its cultivation. Brassica rapa var. oleifera, originating from the Mediterranean region, was diffused to the East Asian continent through two independent transmission paths (one via the Turkish Plateau and the other via Central Asia and Siberia). Analyzing the genetic diversity characteristics and evolutionary trajectories of these two transmission paths lays a foundation for clarifying the origin and evolutionary process of Brassica rapa var. oleifera and accelerating the breeding of Brassica rapa var. oleifera in China. Despite existing research on the origin of Brassica rapa L., the domestication process of this species remains unresolved. Future studies will employ whole-genome resequencing to address this fundamental question. Full article

The growing mismatch between ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand underscores the importance of thoroughly understanding their spatiotemporal patterns and key drivers to promote ecological civilization and sustainable development at the regional level in China. This study investigates six key ES indicators across mainland China—habitat quality (HQ), carbon sequestration (CS), water yield (WY), sediment delivery ratio (SDR), food production (FP), and nutrient delivery ratio (NDR)—by integrating a suite of analytical approaches. These include a spatiotemporal analysis of trade-offs and synergies in supply, demand, and their ratios; self-organizing maps (SOM) for bundle identification; and interpretable machine learning models. While prior research studies have typically examined ES at a single spatial scale, focusing on supply-side bundles or associated drivers, they have often overlooked demand dynamics and cross-scale interactions. In contrast, this study integrates SOM and SHAP-based machine learning into a dual-scale framework (grid and city levels), enabling more precise identification of scale-dependent drivers and a deeper understanding of the complex interrelationships between ES supply, demand, and their spatial mismatches. The results reveal pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity in ES supply and demand at both grid and city scales. Overall, the supply services display a spatial pattern of higher values in the east and south, and lower values in the west and north. High-value areas for multiple demand services are concentrated in the densely populated eastern regions. The grid scale better captures spatial clustering, enhancing the detection of trade-offs and synergies. For instance, the correlation between HQ and NDR supply increased from 0.62 (grid scale) to 0.92 (city scale), while the correlation between HQ and SDR demand decreased from −0.03 to −0.58, indicating that upscaling may highlight broader synergistic or conflicting trends missed at finer resolutions. In the spatiotemporal interaction network of supply–demand ratios, CS, WY, FP, and NDR persistently show low values (below −0.5) in western and northern regions, indicating ongoing mismatches and uneven development. Driver analysis demonstrates scale-dependent effects: at the grid scale, HQ and FP are predominantly influenced by socioeconomic factors, SDR and WY by ecological variables, and CS and NDR by climatic conditions. At the city level, socioeconomic drivers dominate most services. Based on these findings, nine distinct supply–demand bundles were identified at both scales. The largest bundle at the grid scale (B3) occupies 29.1% of the study area, while the largest city-scale bundle (B8) covers 26.5%. This study deepens the understanding of trade-offs, synergies, and driving mechanisms of ecosystem services across multiple spatial scales; reveals scale-sensitive patterns of spatial mismatch; and provides scientific support for tiered ecological compensation, integrated regional planning, and sustainable development strategies. Full article

The Paratethyan South Caspian and Mediterranean Levant basins relate to the significant hydrocarbon provinces of Eurasia. The giant hydrocarbon reserves of the SCB are well-known. Within the LB, so far, only a few commercial gas fields have been found. Both the LB and SCB contain some geological peculiarities. These basins are highly complex tectonically and structurally, requiring a careful, multi-component geological–geophysical analysis. These basins are primarily composed of oceanic crust. The oceanic crust of both the South Caspian and Levant basins formed within the complex Neotethys ocean structure. However, this crust is allochthonous in the Levant Basin (LB) and autochthonous in the South Caspian Basin (SCB). This study presents a comprehensive comparison of numerous tectonic, geodynamic, morphological, sedimentary, and geophysical aspects of these basins. The Levant Basin is located directly above the middle part of the massive, counterclockwise-rotating mantle structure and rotates accordingly in the same direction. To the north of this basin is located the critical latitude 35° of the Earth, with the vast Cyprus Bouguer gravity anomaly. The LB contains the most ancient block of oceanic crust on Earth, which is related to the Kiama paleomagnetic hyperzone. On the western boundary of the SCB, approximately 35% of the world’s mud volcanoes are located; the geological reasons for this are still unclear. The low heat flow values and thick sedimentary layers in both basins provide opportunities to discover commercial hydrocarbon deposits at great depths. The counterclockwise-rotating mantle structure creates an indirect geodynamic influence on the SCB. The lithospheric blocks situated above the eastern branch of the mantle structure trigger a north–northeastward movement of the western segment of the Iranian Plate, which exhibits a complex geometric configuration. Conversely, the movement of the Iranian Plate induced a clockwise rotation of the South Caspian Basin, which lies to the east of the plate. This geodynamic ensemble creates an unstable geodynamic situation in the region. Full article

Background: Pharmaceutical compounds frequently co-occur in environmental waters, but studies on their combined effects on animals and humans remain limited. The present study investigated the individual and combined short-term effects of ketoprofen (Kp, a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug inhibiting cyclooxygenase-2), valproic acid (VPA, an anticonvulsant acting as a voltage-gated sodium channel modulator), and meropenem (Mp, a β-lactam antibiotic) at environmentally relevant concentrations on zebrafish behavior, acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity, and oxidative status. Methods: Adult zebrafish were exposed for 4 days to Kp, VPA, Mp, and their binary and ternary mixtures. Behavioral effects were assessed using 3D novel tank and social behavior tests, while the oxidative stress response was assessed through malondialdehyde (MDA) content, superoxide dismutase (SOD), and glutathione peroxidase (GPx) activities. Results: Zebrafish exposed to Mp showed a notable increase in immobility, whereas those exposed to VPA and Mp + Kp exhibited a significant augmentation of average velocity and counter-clockwise rotations. All treated groups exhibited a notable increase in the time spent near the walls (thigmotaxis), and except for the control and Mp-exposed zebrafish, the other groups mostly stayed in the bottom tank zone (geotaxis). Kp, VPA + Kp, and VPA + Mp + Kp treatments impaired social behavior, with zebrafish displaying less interest in conspecifics. Biochemical analysis demonstrated that both the individual drugs and their combination caused oxidative stress, characterized by decreased GPx activity and increased SOD activity and MDA levels. Moreover, AChE activity was more strongly inhibited in zebrafish exposed to the binary and ternary mixtures than to individual drugs. Conclusions: The results indicate that acute exposure to individual and/or combined pharmaceuticals induces behavioral changes, oxidative damage, and AChE inhibition in zebrafish, highlighting the need to assess the effects of pharmaceutical mixtures for comprehensive ecosystem risks evaluation. Full article

Maedi-visna virus (MVV), a small ruminant lentivirus causing chronic multisystemic disease in sheep, poses significant economic burdens due to reduced productivity and a lack of effective treatments. Despite its worldwide prevalence, epidemiological data from Algeria remain absent. This first national seroprevalence study aimed to elucidate MVV distribution, risk factors, and transmission dynamics in Algerian sheep herds. A cross-sectional survey of 1400 sheep across four regions (East, Center, West, South) was conducted, with sera analyzed via indirect ELISA (IDvet). Risk factors (geography, age, sex, breed, farming system) were evaluated using chi-square tests and Cramer’s V. Overall seroprevalence was 9.07% (95% CI: 7.57–10.57), with significant variation by sex (females: 20.44% vs. males: 3.68%; p < 0.05), age (1–5 years: 6.86% vs. <1 year: 0.29%; p = 0.01), and region (Central: 3.36% vs. Eastern: 0.86%; p < 0.05). Notably, no association was found with breed or farming system (p ≥ 0.08), contrasting prior studies and suggesting region-specific transmission dynamics. Females exhibited heightened seropositivity, implicating prolonged herd retention and vertical transmission risks. Geographic disparities highlighted industrialized farming in central Algeria as a potential transmission amplifier. Strikingly, seronegative animals in high-prevalence herds hinted at genetic resistance, warranting further investigation. This study provides foundational insights into MVV epidemiology in North Africa, underscoring the need for targeted surveillance, ewe-focused control measures, and genetic research to mitigate transmission. The absence of prior national data elevates its significance, offering actionable frameworks for resource-limited settings and enriching the global understanding of SRLV heterogeneity. Full article

The agronomic effectiveness of biofertilizers is influenced by strain origin, genetic identity, crop genotype, soil type, and environmental conditions. For best results, both the plant and rhizobia strain must be adapted to the common harsh soil conditions in the tropics. While plant varieties have changed over the years, complementary research on new strains effectiveness under varying soil fertility conditions has lagged in southern Africa. Seven field experiments were established in the main soybean-producing areas of Zimbabwe in the north, central, and north–east regions to evaluate agronomic benefits of new rhizobia strains against the current exotic commercial strain (MAR1491). One site was irrigated (site 3), and the other six sites were rainfed (sites 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7). While trends in inoculation response varied from site to site due to site conditions, inoculation with the strains NAZ15, NAZ25, and NAK128 consistently yielded high grain yields, which were similar to the current commercial strain MAR1491 and to application of mineral fertilizer (51.75 and 100 kg N ha⁻¹). Grain yield levels were generally below 2 t ha⁻¹ for sites 2, 3, and 5 and above 2 t ha⁻¹ for sites 1, 4, and 6, while for the irrigated site 3, they ranged upwards of 3 t ha⁻¹. When irrigated, all strains except NAK9 performed similarly in terms of grain yields and aboveground N uptake. Further testing on the inclusion of the indigenous strains NAZ15, NAZ25, and NAK128 in multi-strain commercial inoculant production targeting application in regions and soils where they excel beyond the current exotic strain MAR1491 is recommended. Full article

Against the background of intensifying human–land contradictions, evaluation of land use benefits and identification of obstacles are crucial for sustainable land management and socioeconomic development. Taking Henan Province as an example, this research employed the entropy weight method and TOPSIS model to assess the land use benefits across its cities from 2011 to 2020, a period of rapid land use transformation, analyzed their spatiotemporal evolution, and identified key obstacles via an obstacle degree model. The results showed the following. (1) The social land use benefits consistently exceeded the ecological and economic benefits, with steady improvements observed in both the individual and comprehensive benefits. Spatially, the benefits showed a “one city dominant” pattern, decreasing gradually from the central region to the south, north, east, and west, with this spatial gradient further intensifying over time. (2) Economic factors were the primary obstacles, with significantly higher obstruction degrees than social or ecological factors. The main obstacles were the general budget revenue of government finance per unit land area, domestic garbage removal volume, and total retail sales of social consumer goods per unit land area. (3) The policy implications focus on strengthening regional differentiated development by leveraging Zhengzhou’s core role to boost the land-based economic benefits, integrating social–ecological strengths with agricultural modernization, and promoting “core–periphery linkage” to narrow gaps through targeted industrial and infrastructure strategies. This study could provide region-specific insights for sustainable land management in agricultural provinces undergoing rapid urbanization. Full article

This study investigates the impact of cultural openness on intertemporal consumption behavior in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, using panel data from 14 countries spanning 2010 to 2022. Unlike prior research that primarily focused on lifestyle shifts or product preferences, this study explores how cultural globalization influences the trade-off between present consumption and future savings, as captured by the consumption-to-savings ratio (LCESR). Cultural openness is operationalized using the Cultural Globalization General Index (LCGGI), and its effect is analyzed alongside key control variables including Internet penetration, real GDP per capita, inflation, and tourism. To address endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity, this study employs the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, supported by robustness check models. The findings reveal a significant positive relationship between cultural openness and LCESR in both the short and long run, indicating that increased exposure to global cultural flows enhances consumption tendencies in the region. Internet penetration and inflation negatively affect saving behavior, while GDP per capita shows a positive effect. Tourist arrivals exhibit limited influence. This study also highlights the importance of historical consumption behavior, as the lagged dependent variable strongly predicts the current LCESR. Robustness checks confirm the consistency of the results across all models. These insights suggest that cultural openness, digital infrastructure, and macroeconomic stability are pivotal in shaping consumption/saving patterns. The results carry important implications for financial education, digital consumption governance, and cultural policy strategies in the MENA region and similar emerging markets undergoing rapid cultural integration. Full article