Search Results (110)

According to Victor Ernest Shelford’s ‘Law of Tolerance,’ organisms within ecosystems thrive optimally when environmental conditions are favorable. Applying this principle to ecosystems and agro-ecosystems facing water scarcity or environmental challenges can significantly enhance their productivity. In these ecosystems, phytocenosis adjusts its conditions by utilizing water with varying salinity levels. Moreover, establishing optimal drinking water conditions for human populations within an ecosystem can help mitigate future negative succession processes. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the quality of two distinct water sources in the Amudarya district of the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan: collector-drainage water and groundwater at depths of 10 to 25 m. This research is highly relevant in the context of climate change, as improper management of water salinity, particularly in collector-drainage water, may exacerbate soil salinization and degrade drinking water quality. The primary methodology of this study is as follows: The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) standard for collector-drainage water is applied, and the water quality index is assessed using the CCME WQI model. The Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) model is adapted to assess groundwater quality using Uzbekistan’s national drinking water quality standards. The results of two years of collected data, i.e., 2021 and 2023, show that the water quality index of collector-drainage water indicates that it has limited potential for use as secondary water for the irrigation of sensitive crops and has been classified as ‘Poor’. As a result, salinity increased by 8.33% by 2023. In contrast, groundwater quality was rated as ‘Fair’ in 2021, showing a slight deterioration by 2023. Moreover, a comparative analysis of CCME WQI values for collector-drainage and groundwater in the region, in conjunction with findings from Ethiopia, India, Iraq, and Turkey, indicates a consistent decline in water quality, primarily due to agriculture and various other anthropogenic pollution sources, underscoring the critical need for sustainable water resource management. This study highlights the need to use organic fertilizers in agriculture to protect drinking water quality, improve crop yields, and promote soil health, while reducing reliance on chemical inputs. Furthermore, adopting WQI models under changing climatic conditions can improve agricultural productivity, enhance groundwater quality, and provide better environmental monitoring systems. Full article

This study investigates the performance improvement of asphalt binders through the incorporation of two polymers, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and styrene–butadiene–styrene (SBS), with asphalt grade (60–70), to address the growing demand for durable and climate-resilient pavement materials, particularly in areas exposed to high temperatures like Iraq. The main objective is to improve the mechanical characteristics, thermal stability, and workability of typical asphalt mixtures to extend pavement lifespan and lessen maintenance costs. A thorough set of rheological, physical, morphological, and workability tests was performed on asphalt binders modified with varying content of PVC (3%, 5%, 7%, and 9%) and SBS (3%, 4%, and 5%). The significance of this research lies in optimizing binder formulations to enhance resistance to deformation and failure modes such as rutting and thermal cracking, which are common in extreme climates. The results indicate that PVC enhances performance grade (PG), softening point, and viscosity, although higher contents (7% and 9%) exceeded penetration grade specifications. SBS-modified binders demonstrated marked improvements in softening point, viscosity, and rutting resistance, with PG values increasing from PG64-x (unmodified) to PG82-x at 5% SBS. Fluorescence microscopy confirmed optimal polymer dispersion at 5% concentration for both SBS and PVC, ensuring compatibility with the base asphalt. Workability testing revealed that SBS-modified mixtures exhibited higher torque requirements, indicating reduced workability compared to both PVC-modified and unmodified binders. These findings offer valuable insights for the design of high-performance asphalt mixtures suitable for hot-climate applications and contribute to the development of more durable and cost-effective road infrastructure. Full article

Prolonged conflicts in Iraq over the past four decades have profoundly disrupted environmental systems, not only through immediate post-conflict emissions—such as residues from munitions and explosives—but also via long-term infrastructural collapse, population displacement, and unsustainable resource practices. Despite growing concern over air quality in conflict-affected regions, comprehensive assessments integrating long-term data and localized measurements remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the environmental consequences of sustained instability in Mosul, focusing on air pollution trends using both remote sensing data (1983–2023) and in situ monitoring of key pollutants—including PM_2.5, PM₁₀, TVOCs, NO₂, SO₂, and formaldehyde—at six urban sites during 2022–2023. The results indicate marked seasonal variations, with winter peaks in combustion-related pollutants (NO₂, SO₂) and elevated particulate concentrations in summer driven by sandstorm activity. Annual average concentrations of all six pollutants increased by 14–51%, frequently exceeding WHO air quality guidelines. These patterns coincide with worsening meteorological conditions, including higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and more frequent storms, suggesting synergistic effects between climate stress and pollution. The findings highlight severe public health risks and emphasize the urgent need for integrated urban recovery strategies that promote sustainable infrastructure, environmental restoration, and resilience to climate change. Full article

Iraq’s extreme summer temperatures pose critical challenges to pavement durability, as conventional asphalt mixtures often fail under prolonged thermal stress. This paper provides a comparative evaluation of the high-temperature performance of unmodified (40/50 penetration grade) and polymer-modified (PG 76-10) asphalt mixtures for the asphalt course layer. Marshall stability, flow, and stiffness were measured at elevated temperatures of 60 °C, 65 °C, 70 °C, and 75 °C after short-term (30 min) and extended (24 h) conditioning. Results show that while both mixtures experienced performance degradation as the temperature increased, the polymer-modified mixture consistently exhibited superior thermal resistance, retaining approximately 9% higher stability and 28% higher stiffness, and displaying 18% lower flow deformation at 75 °C compared to the unmodified mixture. Stability degradation rate (SDR), stiffness degradation rate (SiDR), and flow increase rate (FIR) analyses further confirmed the enhanced resilience of PG 76-10, showing nearly 39% lower FIR under thermal stress. Importantly, PG 76-10 maintained performance within specification thresholds under all tested conditions, unlike the conventional 40/50 mixture. These findings emphasize the necessity of adapting mix design standards to regional climatic realities and support the broader adoption of polymer-modified asphalt binders to enhance pavement service life in hot-climate regions like Iraq. Full article

Iraq has faced escalating water scarcity over the past two decades, driven by climate change, upstream water withdrawals, and prolonged economic instability. These factors have caused deterioration in irrigation systems, inefficient water distribution, and growing social unrest. As per capita water availability falls below critical levels, Iraq is entering a period of acute water stress. This escalating water scarcity directly impacts water and food security, public health, and economic stability. This study aims to develop a general framework combining decision support systems (DSSs) with Integrated Comprehensive Water Management Strategies (ICWMSs) to support water planning, allocation, and response to ongoing water scarcity and reductions in Iraq. Implementing such a system is essential for Iraq to alleviate its continuing severe situation and adequately tackle its worsening water scarcity that has intensified over the years. This integrated approach is fundamental for enhancing planning efficiency, improving operational performance and monitoring, optimizing water allocation, and guiding informed policy decisions under scarcity and uncertainty. The current study highlights various international case studies that show that DSSs integrate real-time data, artificial intelligence, and advanced modeling to provide actionable policies for water management. Implementing such a framework is crucial for Iraq to mitigate this critical situation and effectively address the escalating water scarcity. Furthermore, Iraq’s water management system requires modifications considering present and expected future challenges. This study analyzes the inflows of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers from 1933 to 2022, revealing significant reductions in water flow: a 31% decrease in the Tigris and a 49.5% decline in the Euphrates by 2021. This study highlights the future 7–20% water deficit between 2020 and 2035. Furthermore, this study introduces a flexible, tool-based framework supported by a DSS with the DPSIR model (Driving Forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, and Responses) designed to address and reduce the gap between water availability and increasing demand. This approach proposes a multi-hazard risk matrix to identify and prioritize strategic risks facing Iraq’s water sector. This matrix links each hazard with appropriate DSS-based response measures and supports scenario planning under the ICWMS framework. The proposed framework integrates hydro-meteorological data analysis with hydrological simulation models and long-term investment strategies. It also emphasizes the development of institutional frameworks, the promotion of water diplomacy, and the establishment of transboundary water allocation and operational policy agreements. Efforts to enhance national security and regional stability among riparian countries complement these actions to tackle water scarcity effectively. Simultaneously, this framework offers a practical guideline for water managers to adopt the best management policies without bias or discrimination between stakeholders. By addressing the combined impacts of anthropogenic and climate change, the proposed framework aims to ensure rational water allocation, enhance resilience, and secure Iraq’s water strategies, ensuring sustainability for future generations. Full article

This study explores the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of deforestation and forest degradation along the politically sensitive Iraq–Turkey border within the Duhok Governorate between 2015 and 2024. Utilizing paired remote sensing (RS) and high-end machine learning (ML) methods, forest dynamics were simulated from Sentinel-2 imagery, climate datasets, and topographic variables. Seven ML models were evaluated, and XGBoost consistently outperformed the others, yielding predictive accuracies (R²) of 0.903 (2015), 0.910 (2019), and 0.950 (2024), and a low RMSE (≤0.035). Model interpretability was further improved through the application of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to estimate variable contributions and a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to elucidate complex nonlinear interactions. The results showed distinct temporal shifts; climatic factors (rainfall and temperature) primarily influenced vegetation cover in 2015, whereas anthropogenic drivers such as forest fires (NBR), road construction (RI), and soil exposure (BSI) intensified by 2024, accounting for up to 12% of the observed forest loss. Forest canopy cover decreased significantly, from approximately 630 km² in 2015 to 577 km² in 2024, mainly due to illegal deforestation, road network expansion, and conflict-induced fires. This study highlights the effectiveness of an ML-driven RS analysis for geoinformation needs in geopolitically complex and data-scarce regions. These findings underscore the urgent need for robust, evidence-based conservation policies and demonstrate the utility of interpretable ML techniques for forest management policy optimization, providing a reproducible methodological blueprint for future ecological assessment. Full article

Decarbonisation in hot climates demands innovative cooling solutions that minimise environmental impact through renewable energy integration and advanced system optimisation. This study investigates the energetic and economic feasibility of a thermo-mechanical vapour compression (TMVC) cooling system that integrates a conventional vapour compression cycle with an ejector and a thermally driven second-stage compressor powered by solar-heated water from evacuated flat-plate collectors. The system is designed to reduce mechanical compressor work and enhance cooling performance in hot climates. A comprehensive 4E (energy, exergy, economic, and environmental) analysis is conducted for a multi-story residential building in Baghdad, Iraq, with a total floor area of approximately 8000 m² and a peak cooling demand of 521.75 kW. Numerical simulations were conducted to evaluate various configurations of solar collector areas, thermal storage tank volumes, and collector mass flow rate, aiming to identify the most energy-efficient combinations. These optimal configurations were then assessed from economic and environmental perspectives. Among them, the system featuring a 600 m² collector area and a 34 m³ storage tank was selected as the optimal case based on its superior electricity savings and energy performance. Specifically, this configuration achieved a 28.28% improvement in the coefficient of performance, a 22.05% reduction in energy consumption, and an average of 15.3 h of daily solar-assisted operation compared to a baseline vapour compression system. These findings highlight the potential of the TMVC system to significantly reduce energy usage and environmental impact, thereby supporting the deployment of sustainable cooling technologies in hot climate regions. Full article

Middle East (ME) countries have arid and semi-arid climates with low annual precipitation and considerable geographical and temporal variability, which contribute to their extremely erratic rainfall. The generation of timely and accurate climatic information for the ME is anticipated to be aided by global reanalysis products and satellite-based precipitation estimations. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation (CHIRPS) on Google Earth Engine (GEE) were used to study rainfall in eleven chosen ME counties from 2000 to 2023. This study shows that Saudi Arabia (509.64 mm/December–January–February; DJF), Iraq (211.50 mm/September–October–November; SON), Iran (306.35 mm/SON), Jordan (161.28 mm/DJF), Kuwait (44.66 mm), Syria (246.51 mm/DJF), UAE–Qatar–Bahrain (28.62 mm/SON), Oman (64.90 mm/June–July–August; JJA), and Yemen (240.27 mm/SON) were the countries with the highest rainfall. Due to improved ground station integration, CHIRPS also reports larger rainfall anomalies, with a peak of 59.15 mm in DJF, mainly in northern Iran, Iraq, and Syria. PERSIANN understates heavy rainfall, probably because it relies on infrared satellite data, with a maximum anomaly of 4.15 mm. Saudi Arabia saw heavy rain during the JJA months, while others received less. More accurate rainfall forecasts in the ME can lessen the effects of floods and droughts, promoting environmental resilience and regional economic stability. Therefore, a more comprehensive understanding of all the relevant components is necessary to address these difficulties. Both environmental and human impacts must be taken into account for sustainable solutions. Full article

Iraq faces significant challenges in sustainable water resource management, due to intensive agriculture and climate change. Modern irrigation leads to depleted natural springs and abandoned traditional canal systems, creating a nexus between climate, water availability, agriculture, and cultural heritage. This work unveils this nexus holistically, from the regional to the local scale, and by considering all the components of the nexus. This is achieved by combining five decades (1974–2024) of satellite data—including declassified HEXAGON KH-9, Copernicus Sentinel-1/2/3, COSMO-SkyMed radar, and PlanetScope’s Dove optical imagery—and on-the-ground observations (photographic and drone surveying). The observed landscape changes are categorised as “proxies” to infer the presence of the given land processes that they correlate to. The whole of southern Iraq is afflicted by dust storms and intense evapotranspiration; new areas are desertifying and thus becoming local sources of dust in the southwest of the Euphrates floodplain and close to the boundary with the western desert. The most severe transformations happened around springs between Najaf Sea and Hammar Lake, where centre-pivot and herringbone irrigation systems fed by pumped groundwater have densified. While several instances of run-off and discharge highlight the loss of water in the western side of the study area, ~5 km² wide clusters of crops in the eastern side suffer from water scarcity and are abandoned. Here, new industrial activities and modern infrastructure have already damaged tens of archaeological sites. Future monitoring based on the identified proxies could help to assess improvements or deterioration, in light of mitigation measures. Full article

Coastal erosion and sediment transport dynamics in Iraq’s shoreline are increasingly affected by extreme climate conditions, including rising sea levels and intensified storms. This study introduces a novel fractional-order sediment transport model, incorporating a modified gamma function-based differential operator to accurately describe erosion rates and stabilization effects. The proposed model evaluates two key stabilization approaches: artificial stabilization (breakwaters and artificial reefs) and bio-engineering solutions (coral reefs, sea-grass, and salt marshes). Numerical simulations reveal that the proposed structures provide moderate sediment retention but degrade over time, leading to diminishing effectiveness. In contrast, bio-engineering solutions demonstrate higher long-term resilience, as natural ecosystems self-repair and adapt to changing environmental conditions. Under extreme climate scenarios, enhanced bio-engineering retains 55% more sediment than no intervention, compared to 35% retention with artificial stabilization.The findings highlight the potential of hybrid coastal protection strategies combining artificial and bio-based stabilization. Future work includes optimizing intervention designs, incorporating localized field data from Iraq’s coastal zones, and assessing cost-effectiveness for large-scale implementation. Full article

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a highly contagious disease of domestic, synanthropic, and wild birds that has demonstrated a sharp rise globally since 2020. This study intends to examine environmental and demographic factors most significantly associated with HPAI (H5N1 and H5N8) outbreaks in Kazakhstan, 2020–2024, and to identify areas of potential underreporting of the disease. Two ecological niche models were developed, namely an “occurrence model” (considering climatic and environmental factors influencing the likelihood of HPAI occurrence) and a “reporting model” (that assesses the probability of disease reporting based on human and poultry population demography). Both models were trained using outbreak locations in countries neighboring Kazakhstan (Afghanistan, China, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Russia), and then tested using the HPAI outbreak locations in Kazakhstan. Results suggested a good fit for both models to Kazakhstani outbreaks (test AUC = 0.894 vs. training AUC = 0.915 for “occurrence model”, and test AUC = 0.869 vs. training AUC = 0.872 for “reporting model”). A cluster of high occurrence-to-reporting ratio was detected in the south-western region of Kazakhstan, close to the Caspian Sea, suggesting a need for enhancing surveillance efforts in this zone as well as in some other areas of Pavlodar, Northern Kazakhstan, Western Kazakhstan, Qyzylorda, and Eastern Kazakhstan. Results presented here will help inform the design and implementation of control strategies for HPAI in Kazakhstan with the ultimate goal of promoting disease prevention and control in the country. Full article

Prunus microcarpa is an endemic species prevalent throughout the highlands of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Conservation, introduction, and restoration efforts require an in-depth understanding of the species’ current and future habitat distributions under different climate change scenarios. This study utilized field observations, species distribution modeling, geospatial techniques, and environmental predictors to analyze the distribution and forecast potential habitats for P. microcarpa in the highlands of Iraq. Findings indicate that, according to the global climate models (i.e., BCC-CSM2-MR and MRI-ESM2.0), the reduction in habitat for the species is projected to be more than the potential expansion. Specifically, the area of habitat is expected to reduce by 2351.908 km² (4.6%) and 2216.957 km² (4.3%), while it could increase by 1306.384 km² (2.5%) and 1015.612 km² (2.0%) for the respective climate models. Topographic features such as elevation and slope, climatic conditions, precipitation seasonality, and annual mean temperature relatively shape the distribution of P. microcarpa. The modeling demonstrated good predictive capability (area under the curve (AUC) score = 0.933). The total study area is approximately 51,558.327 km², with around 20.5% (10,602 km²) identified as suitable habitat for P. microcarpa. These findings offer essential baseline information for conservation strategies and provide new insights into where the species currently resides and where it could be found in the future. This underscores how combining distribution modeling with geospatial techniques can be effective, particularly in data-deficient regions like Iraq. Full article

Iraq and other semi-arid regions are facing severe climate change impacts, including increased temperatures and decreased rainfall. Changes to climate variables have posed a significant challenge to groundwater storage dynamics. In this regard, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission permits novel originate groundwater storage variations. This study used the monthly GRACE satellite data for 2002–2023 to determine variations in groundwater storage (GWS). Changes in GWS were implied by extracting soil moisture, acquired from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), from the extracted Territorial Water Storage (TWS). The results demonstrated that an annual average ΔGWS trend ranged for the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) mascon and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) mascon was from 0.94 to −1.14 cm/yr and 1.64 to −1.36 cm/yr, respectively. Also, the GSFC illustrated superior performance in estimating ΔGWS compared with the JPL in Iraq, achieving the lowest root mean square error at 0.28 mm and 0.60 mm and the highest coefficient of determination (R²) at 0.92 and 0.89, respectively. These data are critical for identifying areas of depletion, especially in areas where in situ data are lacking. These data allows us to fill the knowledge gaps; provide critical scientific information for monitoring and managing dynamic variations. Full article

Accurate data collection and time series creation are crucial for understanding these changes. However, many areas lack reliable data due to geopolitical issues and government permissions. Urgent action is needed for sustainable water management. This study uses Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data to analyze monthly fluctuations in groundwater storage in the Missan region of Iraq from January 2022 to December 2023, using Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) mascon, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Downscaled (JPL_D), and Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). This study revealed the variability in GWS over the area using RS data and in integration with available monitoring wells. To investigate GWS variability, GSFC, JPL_D, and CLSM observed a downward trend in GWS in 2022; GSFC exhibits the highest negative groundwater trend, while CLSM has the lowest negative trend. Then, from January to June 2023, GSFC had the highest positive trend, while CLSM had the lowest positive trend. Most of the study period has a negative trend for remote sensing that matches the monitoring well data in situ, in which wells 1, 2, and 4 are negative trends of the study period. In conclusion, these results improve the role of remote sensing in groundwater monitoring in small-scale region unconfined aquifers, which supports decision-making in water resource management. The findings illustrated a match between the results derived from the GRACE data and monitoring well data. Full article

Phragmites australis (common reed), a recently introduced invasive species in Iraq, has swiftly established itself as a vigorous perennial plant, significantly impacting the biodiversity and ecosystem functions of Iraqi ecoregions with alarming consequences. There is an insufficient understanding of both the current distribution and possible future trends under climate change scenarios. Consequently, this study seeks to model the current and future potential distribution of this invasive species in Iraq using machine learning techniques (i.e., MaxEnt) alongside geospatial tools integrated within a GIS framework. Land-cover features, such as herbaceous zones, wetlands, annual precipitation, and elevation, emerged as optimal conditioning factors for supporting the species’ invasiveness and habitat through vegetation cover and moisture retention. These factors collectively contributed by nearly 85% to the distribution of P. australis in Iraq. In addition, the results indicate a net decline in high-suitability habitats for P. australis under both the SSP126 (moderate mitigation; 5.33% habitat loss) and SSP585 (high emissions; 6.74% habitat loss) scenarios, with losses concentrated in southern and northern Iraq. The model demonstrated robust reliability, achieving an AUC score of 0.9 ± 0.012, which reflects high predictive accuracy. The study area covers approximately 430,632.17 km², of which 64,065.66 km² (14.87% of the total region) was classified as the optimal habitat for P. australis. While climate projections indicate an overall decline (i.e., SSP126 (5.33% loss) and SSP585 (6.74% loss)) in suitable habitats for P. australis across Iraq, certain localized regions may experience increased habitat suitability, reflecting potential gains (i.e., SSP126 (3.58% gain) and SSP585 (1.82% gain)) in specific areas. Policymakers should focus on regions with emerging suitability risks for proactive monitoring and management. Additionally, areas already infested by the species require enhanced surveillance and containment measures to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Full article