Search Results (18)

Under the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan owned the Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) and India the Eastern rivers (Ravi, Suleimanki, and Beas). Pakistan’s per capita water availability will reduce from 5260 m³ to less than 1000 m³ by 2025, causing water stress. The Indus Basin’s water availability was examined at inflow and outflow gauges between 1991 and 2015. The Indus Basin inflow and outflow gauges indicated exceptionally low and high flows before, during, and after floods. Lower flow values vary greatly for the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers. During Rabi and Kharif, the Indus and Chenab rivers behaved differently. Lower flows (Q90 to Q99) in Western Rivers are more periodic than higher flows (Q90 to Q99) and medium flows (Q90 to Q99). The outflow gauge Kotri reported 35% exceedance with zero flows during pre-flood and post-flood seasons and 50% during flood season, indicating seasonal concerns. Outflow and inflow both fell, particularly after the year 2000, according to data collected over a longer period (1976–2015). Low storage and regulating upstream capacity caused the Indus Basin outflow to reach 28 MAF (million acre feet) between 1976 and 2015, which is 70% more than the permitted 8.6 MAF downstream Kotri gauge. For 65 percent of the year, the Indus Basin does not release any water downstream of Kotri. As a result, the ecosystem relies on an annual influx of at least 123 MAF to sustain itself, and an outflow of 8.6 MAF from the Indus Basin necessitates an inflow of 113.51 MAF. At high-flow seasons, the Indus Basin experiences devastating floods, yet it dries out at a frightening rate before and after floods. The preservation of ecosystems and riparian zones downstream depends on the large environmental flows in eastern rivers. This is achievable only by fully implementing IWT and improving water management practices at western rivers. Full article

Being an agricultural country, Pakistan requires lots of water for irrigation. A major portion of its water resources is located in the upper indus basin (UIB). The snowmelt runoff generated from high-altitude areas of the UIB provides inflow into the Indus river system that boosts the water supply. Snow accumulation during the winter period in the highlands in the watershed(s) becomes a source of water inflow during the snow-melting period, which is described according to characteristics like snow depth, snow density, and snow water equivalent. Snowmelt water release (SWE) and snowmelt water depth (SD) maps are generated by tracing snow occurrence from MODIS-based images of the snow-cover area, evaluating the heating degree days (HDDs) from MODIS-derived images of the land surface temperature, computing the solar radiation, and then assimilating all the previous data in the form of the snowmelt model and ground measurements of the snowmelt water release (SWE). The results show that the average snow-cover area in the Astore river basin, in the upper indus basin, ranges from 94% in winter to 20% in summer. The maps reveal that the annual average values of the SWE range from 150 mm to 535 mm, and the SD values range from 600 mm to 2135 mm, for the snowmelt period (April–September) over the years 2010–2020. The areas linked with vegetation experience low SWE accumulation because of the low slopes in the elevated regions. The meteorological parameters and basin characteristics affect the SWE and can determine the SD values. Full article

Agricultural intensification is increasing global demand for water, with groundwater especially susceptible given its year-round reliability. Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge exacerbate uncertainties for future access and use, especially for large aquifers across alluvial plains such as the Indus Basin of Pakistan. To generate better understanding of climate change impacts on groundwater balances in such contexts, we used MODFLOW 2005 to quantify the groundwater budget of the Northern Rohri Canal Command Area under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climatic scenarios, while also taking climatic regionalisation into account. Under a baseline scenario, total annual pumping in the northern Rohri command was estimated to be 3.619 billion cubic metres (BCM), and the total net loss in storage over the simulation period from October 2010 to April 2014 was estimated at 1.244 BCM per year. By 2047, net decline in storage is projected to more than double to 2.185 per year under RCP 4.5 scenario and 2.214 under RCP 8.5. Our estimates suggest that a sustainable yield across the command area should be managed at approximately 3 ± 0.3 BCM per year to ensure sufficient adaptive reserves of groundwater for access during times of drought and inadequate surface supply, while also reducing waterlogging impacts from high watertables. This first-time estimate of sustainable yield provides irrigation system managers with an overall guide from which divisional-scale measures to achieve the goal can be identified through stakeholder engagement. Full article

The present study provides an in-depth investigation into water security using socio-hydrological analysis by investigating the relationship between irrigation entitlements and actual water delivery. Conjoint analysis is used to evaluate the reliability and equity of the system by applying quantitative definitions and metrics. This study examines 10 years of daily average canal flow data collected from the Sindh canal command regions of the Lower Indus Basin Irrigation System in Pakistan. This research was carried out at both the canal and the barrage network levels, with socio-hydrological metrics being used across both temporal and spatial scales. Furthermore, an in-depth study of the LIB system’s fourteen main canals operating across three barrages was carried out. This research focuses on the transition from historical volumetric allocations to the objective of enhancing irrigation efficiency and agricultural yields in order to provide improved water and food security. The investigation underscores the enduring presence of stagnation and volatility in the overall equity and reliability of the system. The analysis reveals that the median reliability of the canals in Sindh was 47–100% in the summer and 65–85% in the winter season. Additionally, the irrigation system equity was worse in the winter and summer, at around 55–75%. This research examines the possibilities of using a socio-hydrological strategy to effectively improve the performance of canal irrigation systems and promote water security. Full article

Pakistan depends heavily on the Indus River Basin System (IRBS) which is essential for meeting the great majority of Pakistan’s agricultural and home consumption requirements. The Indus River is responsible for over 90% of Pakistan’s agricultural output and accounts for 25% of the country’s GDP. Because of the problems with the water supply, Pakistan may soon face serious food scarcity. By 2025, the water deficit is expected to reach 32%, according to the World Bank’s 2020–2021 study, leading to a food deficit of about 70 million tons. Recent predictions suggest that by 2025, the water storage capacity will have reduced by over 30% due to climate change. Extreme events, i.e., temperature and precipitation, occurred in Pakistan, and these affect human beings. Pakistan has a very low per capita water storage capacity, at about 150 m³. As a result of decreasing surface water supplies and rising groundwater abstraction, the viability of irrigated agriculture may soon be threatened. To maximize the potential for increased storage, Pakistan must enhance its water-use efficiency and implement sustainable strategies for managing its groundwater and surface water resources. The crucial aspects in keeping irrigated agriculture viable in the Indus Basin are developing the infrastructure and eliminating distrust among the provinces. Full article

Climate change may cause severe hydrological droughts, leading to water shortages which will require to be assessed using high-resolution data. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite Terrestrial Water Storage (TWSA) estimates offer a promising solution to monitor hydrological drought, but its coarse resolution (1°) limits its applications to small regions of the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS). Here we employed machine learning models such as Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to downscale GRACE TWSA from 1° to 0.25°. The findings revealed that the XGBoost model outperformed the ANN model with Nash Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) (0.99), Pearson correlation (R) (0.99), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (5.22 mm), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) (2.75 mm) between the predicted and GRACE-derived TWSA. Further, Water Storage Deficit Index (WSDI) and WSD (Water Storage Deficit) were used to determine the severity and episodes of droughts, respectively. The results of WSDI exhibited a strong agreement when compared with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at different time scales (1-, 3-, and 6-months) and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI). Moreover, the IBIS had experienced increasing drought episodes, e.g., eight drought episodes were detected within the years 2010 and 2016 with WSDI of −1.20 and −1.28 and total WSD of −496.99 mm and −734.01 mm, respectively. The Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) model between WSDI and climatic variables indicated that potential evaporation had the largest influence on drought after precipitation. The findings of this study will be helpful for drought-related decision-making in IBIS. Full article

Intensive groundwater abstraction has augmented socio-economic development worldwide but threatens the sustainability of groundwater resources. Spatiotemporal analysis of groundwater storage changes is a prerequisite to sustainable water resource management over river basins. To estimate the groundwater storage changes/anomalies (GWCs) in the Indus River Basin (IRB), where observation wells are sparse, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, the Global Land Data Assimilation System, and the WaterGAP Hydrological Model data were employed. The groundwater storage changes and controlling factors were investigated at three tier levels (TTLs), i.e., the basin, river reach, and region, to explore their implications on regional water resource management and provide management options at each level. Overall, the IRB groundwater declined from January 2003 to December 2016, with a relatively higher rate during 2003–2009 than during 2010–2016. Spatially, according to a reach-specific analysis, 24%, 14%, and 2% of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the IRB, respectively, were indicated by a ‘severe groundwater decline’ over the entire period (i.e., 2003–2016). The GRACE-based GWCs were validated with in situ data of two heterogeneous regions, i.e., Kabul River Basin (KRB) and Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC). The analysis showed a correlation (R²) of 0.77 for LBDC and 0.29 for KRB. This study’s results reveal that climatic variations (increase in evapotranspiration); anthropogenic activities, i.e., pumping for irrigation; and water allocations in these regions mainly drive the groundwater storage changes across the Indus Basin. Full article

Agriculture is the major economic sector in Asian countries and the majority of their population depends on it. In addition to the largest irrigation system in the Indus basin, Pakistan is suffering from water shortages that are affecting the overall crop production of the country. Different resource conservation technologies (RCTs) such as precision land leveling (PLL), raised bed planting (RBP), and different high-efficiency irrigation systems (HEISs) can be opted for better water productivity. In this study, the potential of these RCTs has been explored to enhance production and save irrigation water through their sustainable adoption. Based on studies by different researchers, water savings up to 47% and yield increases up to 35% have been reported under PLL, while water savings up to 50% and about 10–33% yield increases were observed under RBP. Similarly, under different HEISs, water savings up to 80% and yield increases up to 53% have been reported compared with crops sown under conventional farming. Based on the findings of the researchers regarding RCTs, these have been proved as progressive sowing techniques for better productivity under the limited available water scenario. The detailed review in this paper concludes that RCTs resulting in the improvement of gravity irrigation methods, viz., PLL and RBP, have a great potential of adoption and water productivity improvement at the regional scale in developing countries such as Pakistan, while high-cost HEISs can also be promoted at limited scale among progressive farmers for high-value agriculture. Full article

Water is vital and an essential entity directly and indirectly for all living creatures from their birth, whereas electrical energy has a dominant role in the growth of society in general and for human beings in particular. Optimal use of water and production of electrical energy at minimum cost are potential research challenges. Hydraulic energy is one of the cheapest and the most exploited renewable energy resource for power generation worldwide, and is in line with the seventh United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 7). The Indus basin is a trans-boundary basin, and its modeling has been a source of interest for scientists and policymakers. Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR) has many variants, all focusing on optimal use of water for irrigation purposes. In this paper, the modified IBMR model is proposed addressing both agriculture and power generation aspects simultaneously. This model optimizes the Consumer Producer Surplus (CPS) by considering different water inflow probabilities. A parameter has been introduced in the modified objective function to manipulate the supply of water to agriculture and hydropower generation. The proposed model has been implemented in Generic Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) and case studies have been investigated in presence and absence of power generation. The results obtained show that, with incorporation of hydropower, basin wide income is increased up to 11.83% using 50% exceedance probability, and results are in agreement with reference power generation estimated by National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC). The SDG 7 targets ensure the reasonable, dependable, sustainable and contemporary energy access to all. The current research is focusing on how Pakistan would achieve the SDG 7 targets. By 2040, it is anticipated that Pakistan’s energy mix will have around 40% of hydropower and 16% of renewable energy. Full article

Groundwater has a significant contribution to water storage and is considered to be one of the sources for agricultural irrigation; industrial; and domestic water use. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite provides a unique opportunity to evaluate terrestrial water storage (TWS) and groundwater storage (GWS) at a large spatial scale. However; the coarse resolution of GRACE limits its ability to investigate the water storage change at a small scale. It is; therefore; needed to improve the resolution of GRACE data at a spatial scale applicable for regional-level studies. In this study; a machine-learning-based downscaling random forest model (RFM) and artificial neural network (ANN) model were developed to downscale GRACE data (TWS and GWS) from 1° to a higher resolution (0.25°). The spatial maps of downscaled TWS and GWS were generated over the Indus basin irrigation system (IBIS). Variations in TWS of GRACE in combination with geospatial variables; including digital elevation model (DEM), slope; aspect; and hydrological variables; including soil moisture; evapotranspiration; rainfall; surface runoff; canopy water; and temperature; were used. The geospatial and hydrological variables could potentially contribute to; or correlate with; GRACE TWS. The RFM outperformed the ANN model and results show Pearson correlation coefficient (R) (0.97), root mean square error (RMSE) (11.83 mm), mean absolute error (MAE) (7.71 mm), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) (0.94) while comparing with the training dataset from 2003 to 2016. These results indicate the suitability of RFM to downscale GRACE data at a regional scale. The downscaled GWS data were analyzed; and we observed that the region has lost GWS of about −9.54 ± 1.27 km³ at the rate of −0.68 ± 0.09 km³/year from 2003 to 2016. The validation results showed that R between downscaled GWS and observational wells GWS are 0.67 and 0.77 at seasonal and annual scales with a confidence level of 95%, respectively. It can; therefore; be concluded that the RFM has the potential to downscale GRACE data at a spatial scale suitable to predict GWS at regional scales. Full article

Sustainable management of canal water through optimum water allocation is the need of the modern world due to the rapid rise in water demand and climatic variations. The present research was conducted at the Chaj Doab, Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) of Pakistan, using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model. Six different scenarios were developed, and the results showed that the current available surface water is not sufficient to meet crop water demands. The Lower Jhelum Canal (LJC) command area is more sensitive to water scarcity than the Upper Jhelum Canal (UJC). The future (up to 2070) climate change scenarios for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 showed a decrease in catchment reliability up to 26.80 and 26.28% for UJC as well as 27.56 and 27.31% for LJC catchment, respectively. We concluded that scenario 3 (irrigation efficiency improvement through implementation of a high efficiency irrigation system, canal lining, reduction and replacement of high delta crops with low delta crops) was sufficient to reduce the canal water deficit in order to optimize canal water allocation. Improvement in the irrigation system and cropping area should be optimized for efficient canal water management. Full article

Spatio-temporal distribution of irrigation water components was evaluated at the canal command area in Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) by using a remote sensing-based geo-informatics approach. Satellite-derived MODIS product-based Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used for the estimation of the actual evapotranspiration (ETa). The ground data-based advection aridity method (AA) was used to calibrate and validate the model. Statistical analysis of the SEBAL based ETa and AA shows the mean values of 87.1 mm and 47.9 mm during Kharif season (May–November) and 100 mm and 77 mm during the Rabi Season (December–April). Mean NSEs of 0.72 and 0.85 and RMSEs 34.9 and 5.76 during the Kharif and the Rabi seasons were observed for ETa and AA, respectively. Rainfall data were calibrated with the point observatory data of the metrological stations. The average annual ETa was found 899 mm for defined four cropping years (2011–2012 to 2014–2015) with the minimum average value of 63.3 mm in January and the maximum average value of 110.6 mm in August. Average of the sum of net canal water use (NCWU) and rainfall during the study period of four years was 548 mm (36% of ETa). Seasonal analysis revealed 39% and 61% of groundwater extraction proportion during Rabi and Kharif seasons, dependent upon the occurrence of rainfall and crop phenology. Overall, the results provide insight into the interrelationships between key water resources management components and the variation of these through time, offering information to improve the strategic planning and management of available water resources in this region. Full article

The Indus basin of Pakistan occupies about 16 million ha (Mha) of land. The Indus River and its tributaries are the primary sources of surface water. An estimated 122 km³ of surface water is diverted annually through an extensive canal system to irrigate this land. These surface water supplies are insufficient to meet the crop water requirements for the intensive cropping system practiced in the Indus basin. The shortfall in surface water is met by exploiting groundwater. Currently, about 62 km³ of groundwater is pumped annually by 1.36 million private and public tube wells. About 1.0 million tubewells are working only in the Punjab province. Small private tubewells account for about 80% of the pumped volume. Inadequate water allocation along the irrigation canals allows excessive water use by head-end farmers, resulting in waterlogging. In contrast, the less productive use of erratic supplies by tail-end farmers often results in soil salinity. The major issues faced by irrigated agriculture in Pakistan are low crop yields and water use efficiency, increasing soil salinization, water quality deterioration, and inefficient drainage effluent disposal. Currently, 4.5 Mha (about 30% of the total irrigated area) suffers from adverse salinity levels. Critical governance issues include inequitable water distribution, minimizing the extent to which salt is mobilized, controlling excessive groundwater pumping, and immediate repair and maintenance of the infrastructure. This paper suggests several options to improve governance, water and salt management to support sustainable irrigated agriculture in Pakistan. In saline groundwater areas, the rotational priorities should be reorganized to match the delivery schedules as closely as possible to crop demand, while emphasizing the reliability of irrigation schedules. Wherever possible, public tubewells should pump fresh groundwater into distributaries to increase water availability at the tail ends. Any substantial reform to make water delivery more flexible and responsive would require an amendment to the existing law and reconfiguration of the entire infrastructure, including thousands of kilometers of channels and almost 60,000 outlets to farmer groups. Within the existing political economy of Pakistan, changing the current water allocation and distribution laws without modernizing the infrastructure would be complicated. A realistic reform program should prioritize interventions that do not require amendment of the Acts or reconstruction of the entire system and are relatively inexpensive. If successful, such interventions may provide the basis for further, more substantial reforms. The present rotational water supply system should continue, with investments focusing on lining channels to ensure equitable water distribution and reduce waterlogging at the head ends. Besides that, the reuse of drainage water should be encouraged to minimize disposal volumes. The timely availability of farm inputs can improve individual farmers’ productivity. Farmers will need to have access to new information on improved irrigation management and soil reclamation approaches. Simultaneously, the government should focus more on the management of drainage and salinity. Full article

Pakistan’s society and economy are highly dependent on the surface and groundwater resources of the Indus River basin. This paper describes the development and implementation of a daily Indus River System Model (IRSM) for the Pakistan Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) to examine the potential impact of reservoir sedimentation on provincial water security. The model considers both the physical and management characteristics of the system. The model’s performance in replicating provincial allocation ratios is within 0.1% on average and the modeling of water flow at barrages and delivered to irrigation canal commands is in agreement with recorded data (major barrage NSE 0.7). The average maximum volumetric error for the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs are respectively 5.2% and 8.8% of mean annual inflow. The model showed that a 2.3 km³ reduction in storage volume since 1990 equates to approximately 1.3 km³ i.e., a 4–5% reduction in irrigation deliveries, respectively, for Punjab and Sindh in the dry (Rabi) season. This decline indicates that without further augmentation of system storage, the Rabi season supplies will continue to be further impacted in the future. This paper demonstrates the suitability of IRSM for exploring long term planning and operational rules and the associated impacts on water, food and energy security in Pakistan. Full article

The influence of gender in participatory irrigation management reforms has been the subject of significant research in the past. Whilst there is some understanding of what hinders women and marginalized groups from participating in irrigation management, there is limited understanding of how male and female farmers vary in their perceptions on the effectiveness of participation in irrigation affairs. There is also limited understanding around the interaction on gender and the overall success of participatory irrigation management programs. Based on the information obtained from 128 households surveyed through separate male and female questionnaires in Pakistan in 2018 (Sindh and Punjab provinces), we studied the country’s experience in engaging gender into its participatory irrigation management program. We found there was a significant difference in participatory irrigation management perceptions across both gender and locational jurisdiction. Overall, women generally perceive the performance and impact of farmer organizations to be significantly less effective than men. Our study emphasizes the importance of putting findings in a historical context to inform the theory, policy, and practice of mainstreaming gender into irrigation management. Full article