Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.1.1. Physical Description
2.1.2. Climate and Seasons
2.1.3. IBIS Infrastructure
2.1.4. Water Inflow Forecast, Allocation and Sharing Methodology
2.2. Model Conceptualisation
2.2.1. Modelling Platform
2.2.2. Water Allocation and Distribution System
2.3. Calibration and Validation Methodology
2.4. Sedimentation Scenario
2.4.1. Scenario 1: Current Conditions (2020)
2.4.2. Scenario 2: Current Conditions with 1990 Sediment Levels
3.1. Model Performance
3.1.1. Physical System Performance
- River reaches with the highest flows had the lowest relative error percentage and the best daily NSE correlation.
- The daily NSE correlation was generally high but diminished with increasing distance from the original water source (i.e., Sidhnai and Islam Barrages). The poor performance at Rasul Barrage was due to a poor correlation with observed releases from Mangla Reservoir.
- Barrages with low inflows and most of the water being diverted to canals such as Sidhnai, Balloki, Khanki and Punjnad performed the worst because small or moderate errors in either the daily correlation associated with the upstream barrage or volume were amplified in the small downstream releases.
- Simulated flows exhibited a positive bias upstream of Guddu barrage at Punjnad and Sidhnai. This performance issue was associated with the distribution of water between Indus and J-C systems via TP link canal and corresponding positive bias at Balloki. A greater proportion of water was distributed through eastern link canals in the model, resulting in a negative bias at Guddu Barrage, which was exacerbated further downstream.
- The simulated Indus flows exhibited an additional negative bias downstream of Sukkur Barrage, which may be due to confusion around whether Balochistan deliveries and the Karachi water supplies from Kotri were included in observed Sindh withdrawals.
3.1.2. Water Allocation and Sharing Performance
3.2. Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Pakistan Inter-Provincial Water Apportionment Accord Paragraphs
Appendix B. Available Data Sources
Appendix B.1. Climate
Appendix B.2. Streamflow Data
Appendix B.3. Irrigated Crop Area
Appendix B.4. Other Water Demands
Appendix B.5. Infrastructure Data
Appendix B.6. Water Management Data
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|Season||Scenario||Punjab (km3)||Sindh (km3)||Balochistan and KP (km3)||Total Resource (km3)|
|Early Kharif||1990 sediment levels||12.33||7.31||0.99||20.63|
|2020 sediment levels||12.42||7.37||0.99||20.78|
|Late Kharif||1990 sediment levels||29.15||29.29||3.55||62.14|
|2020 sediment levels||29.04||29.55||3.55||61.99|
|Rabi||1990 sediment levels||16.00||13.15||2.12||31.27|
|2020 sediment levels||15.27||12.62||2.12||30.01|
|Total||1990 sediment levels||57.48||49.75||6.66||113.89|
|2020 sediment levels||56.73||49.54||6.66||112.94|
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Podger, G.M.; Ahmad, M.-u.-D.; Yu, Y.; Stewart, J.P.; Shah, S.M.M.A.; Khero, Z.I. Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan. Water 2021, 13, 895. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070895
Podger GM, Ahmad M-u-D, Yu Y, Stewart JP, Shah SMMA, Khero ZI. Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan. Water. 2021; 13(7):895. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070895Chicago/Turabian Style
Podger, Geoffrey M., Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad, Yingying Yu, Joel P. Stewart, Syed Muhammad Mehar Ali Shah, and Zarif Iqbal Khero. 2021. "Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan" Water 13, no. 7: 895. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070895