Search Results (45)

The permeability index (PI) is a key comprehensive indicator that reflects the smoothness of internal gas flow in pig iron production via blast furnace. An accurate prediction for it is essential for forecasting abnormal furnace conditions and preventing potential faults. However, developing an early prediction model for PI has been neglected in existing research, and it faces massive challenges due to the strong nonlinearity, undesirable nonstationarity, and significant multiscale time delays inherent in the blast furnace data. To bridge this gap, a new modeling paradigm for PI is proposed to explore the inherent time delay characteristics among multiple variables. First, the data are progressively decomposed into multiple components using wavelet decomposition and spike separation. Then, a novel delay extraction method based on wavelet coherence analysis is developed to obtain accurate multiscale time delay knowledge. Furthermore, the integration of Orthonormal Subspace Analysis (OSA) and wavelet neural network (WNN) achieves comprehensive modeling across time and frequency domains, incorporating global and local features. A Gauss–Markov-based fusion framework is also utilized to reduce the output error variance, ultimately enabling the early prediction of PI. Mechanism analysis and a practical case study on blast furnace production verify the effectiveness of the proposed target-oriented prediction framework. Full article

This article discusses and compares approaches to the visualization of the danger zone formed as a result of spreading toxic substances during a fire at an industrial enterprise, to create predictive models and scenarios for evacuation and environmental protection measures. The purpose of this study is to analyze the features and conditions for the application of algorithms for predicting the spread of a danger zone, based on the Gauss equation and the probabilistic algorithm of a cellular automaton. The research is also aimed at the analysis of the consequences of a fire at an industrial enterprise, taking into account natural and climatic conditions, the development of the area, and the scale of the fire. The subject of this study is the development of software and algorithmic support for the visualization of the danger zone and analysis of the consequences of a fire, which can be confirmed by comparing a computational experiment and actual measurements of toxic substance concentrations. The main research methods include a Gaussian model and probabilistic, frontal, and empirical cellular automation. The results of the study represent the development of algorithms for a cellular automation model for the visual forecasting of a dangerous zone. They are characterized by taking into consideration the rules for filling the dispersion ellipse, as well as determining the effects of interaction with obstacles, which allows for a more accurate mathematical description of the spread of a cloud of toxic combustion products in densely built-up areas. Since the main problems of the cellular automation approach to modeling the dispersion of pollutants are the problems of speed and numerical diffusion, in this article the frontal cellular automation algorithm with a 16-point neighborhood pattern is used, which takes into account the features of the calculation scheme for finding the shortest path. Software and algorithmic support for an integrated system for the visualization and analysis of fire consequences at an industrial enterprise has been developed; the efficiency of the system has been confirmed by computational analysis and actual measurement. It has been shown that the future development of the visualization of dangerous zones during fires is associated with the integration of the Bayesian approach and stochastic forecasting algorithms based on Markov chains into the simulation model of a dangerous zone for the efficient assessment of uncertainties associated with complex atmospheric processes. Full article

This paper introduces and explores a novel class of Brown and Levy steady-state motions. These motions generalize, respectively, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (OUP) and the Levy-driven OUP. As the OUP and the Levy-driven OUP: the motions are Markov; their dynamics are Langevin; and their steady-state distributions are, respectively, Gauss and Levy. As the Levy-driven OUP: the motions can display the Noah effect (heavy-tailed amplitudal fluctuations); and their memory structure is tunable. And, as Gaussian-stationary processes: the motions can display the Joseph effect (long-ranged temporal dependencies); and their correlation structure is tunable. The motions have two parameters: a critical exponent which determines the Noah effect and the memory structure; and a clock function which determines the Joseph effect and the correlation structure. The novel class is a compelling stochastic model due to the following combination of facts: on the one hand the motions are tractable and amenable to analysis and use; on the other hand the model is versatile and the motions display a host of both regular and anomalous features. Full article

Loran is a crucial maritime navigation system and is also considered a key backup for satellite navigation systems. To enhance positioning and timing services, improving the accuracy of the Loran system is essential. This paper discusses the factors affecting Loran’s positioning and timing performance, with a focus on ASF (additional secondary factor) measurement techniques and filtering methods. This study specifically addresses challenges in maritime navigation and employs a first-order Gauss–Markov process to simulate ASF+SF values. This approach eliminates the need for precise geodetic distances or real-time GNSS corrections. The research included experimental tests conducted along the eastern coast of China, evaluating environmental conditions and the positioning station’s location data. Positioning calculations were performed under maritime navigation conditions. The experimental results demonstrate that when satellite navigation systems are unavailable, the proposed model significantly enhances navigation accuracy. The accuracy, previously at the level of several hundred meters, was improved to approximately 40 m, making Loran a more reliable alternative for maritime applications. Full article

Family self-care emphasizes a family’s role in health promotion and protection, reflecting society’s views on health, illness, and human relationships. In families with children with an intellectual disability, where the child may lack self-care abilities, family self-care becomes crucial, highlighting that self-care needs exceed individual capacity and require family cooperation. Background/Objectives: This pilot study aims to explore the factors influencing family self-care and define attributes of its cognitive, psychosocial, physical, and behavioral domains in families with children with intellectual disabilities. Methods: A descriptive and correlational study with forty-four families was conducted. Exploratory analysis and linear regression analysis were estimated through the assumptions of the Gauss–Markov theorem (specifically homoscedasticity, normality, and model specification adequacy). Multicollinearity was also evaluated. Results: The significant family conditioning factors identified were family income, education level, degree of physical and functional dependence of the child, family household size, and social support. Socioeconomic, demographic, and health-related factors shaped self-care experiences. Conclusions: Family empowerment and the impact of disability are key elements in enabling self-care. Families reporting a greater impact of their child’s condition tended to feel less empowered, directly affecting their ability to perform daily self-care activities. The evidence suggests a pattern in which self-care activities might be reactive rather than proactive and focused on managing immediate challenges rather than long-term well-being. These insights can guide healthcare professionals, especially family nurses, toward a holistic, family-centered approach to supporting families with children with intellectual disabilities. Full article

The temporal variations and spatial variations in the ionosphere during geomagnetic storms are exceptionally complex and drastic, significantly complicating ionospheric model construction. In this study, we present a multi-site, high-precision ionospheric vertical total electron content ($VTEC$) estimation method by constraining the $VTEC$ when the locations of ionospheric pierce points (IPPs), determined by multiple sites, are nearby. The root mean square error (RMSE) relative to the global ionospheric map (GIM) $VTEC$ is 3.22 TEC units (TECU), with a correlation coefficient of 0.98. This method enables the high-precision estimation of $VTEC$ at IPPs. Utilizing the Gauss–Markov Kalman filter data assimilation algorithm, we consider the relationship between various Dst indices and the ionospheric temporal scales, achieving a regional ionospheric total electron content $\left(TEC\right)$ Map during geomagnetic storms. This approach effectively monitors the impact of geomagnetic storms on the ionospheric total electron content $\left(TEC\right)$ and provides a more accurate representation of ionospheric changes during geomagnetic storms compared to the GIM $TEC$ Map and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2020 model. Full article

We perform observational confrontation and cosmographic analysis of $f(T,T_G)$ gravity and cosmology. This higher-order torsional gravity is based on both the torsion scalar, as well as on the teleparallel equivalent of the Gauss–Bonnet combination, and gives rise to an effective dark-energy sector which depends on the extra torsion contributions. We employ observational data from the Hubble function and supernova Type Ia Pantheon datasets, applying a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique, and we provide the iso-likelihood contours, as well as the best-fit values for the parameters of the power-law model, an ansatz which is expected to be a good approximation of most realistic deviations from general relativity. Additionally, we reconstruct the effective dark-energy equation-of-state parameter, which exhibits a quintessence-like behavior, while in the future the Universe enters into the phantom regime, before it tends asymptotically to the cosmological constant value. Furthermore, we perform a detailed cosmographic analysis, examining the deceleration, jerk, snap, and lerk parameters, showing that the transition to acceleration occurs in the redshift range $0.52\le z_{tr}\le 0.89$, as well as the preference of the scenario for quintessence-like behavior. Finally, we apply the Om diagnostic analysis to cross-verify the behavior of the obtained model. Full article

In real estate valuation using the Hedonic Price Model (HPM) estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, subjectivity and measurement errors in the independent variables violate the Gauss–Markov theorem assumption of a non-random coefficient matrix, leading to biased parameter estimates and incorrect precision assessments. In this contribution, the Errors-in-Variables model equipped with Total Least Squares (TLS) estimation is proposed to address these issues. It fully considers random errors in both dependent and independent variables. An iterative algorithm is provided, and posterior accuracy estimates are provided to validate its effectiveness. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that TLS provides more accurate solutions than OLS, significantly improving the root mean square error by over 70%. Empirical experiments on datasets from Boston and Wuhan further confirm the superior performance of TLS, which consistently yields a higher coefficient of determination and a lower posterior variance factor, which shows its more substantial explanatory power for the data. Moreover, TLS shows comparable or slightly superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy. These results make it a compelling and practical method to enhance the HPM. Full article

Accurate noise model identification for GNSS time series is crucial for obtaining a reliable GNSS velocity field and its uncertainty for various studies in geodynamics and geodesy. Here, by comprehensively considering time span and missing data effect on the noise model of GNSS time series, we used four combined noise models to analyze the duration of the time series (ranging from 2 to 24 years) and the data gap (between 2% and 30%) effects on noise model selection and velocity estimation at 72 GNSS stations spanning from 1992 to 2022 in global region together with simulated data. Our results show that the selected noise model have better convergence when GNSS time series is getting longer. With longer time series, the GNSS velocity uncertainty estimation with different data gaps is more homogenous to a certain order of magnitude. When the GNSS time series length is less than 8 years, it shows that the flicker noise and random walk noise and white noise (FNRWWN), flicker noise and white noise (FNWN), and power law noise and white noise (PLWN) models are wrongly estimated as a Gauss–Markov and white noise (GGMWN) model, which can affect the accuracy of GNSS velocity estimated from GNSS time series. When the GNSS time series length is more than 12 years, the RW noise components are most likely to be detected. As the duration increases, the impact of RW on velocity uncertainty decreases. Finally, we show that the selection of the stochastic noise model and velocity estimation are reliable for a time series with a minimum duration of 12 years. Full article

Optimizing the noise model for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) vertical time series is vital to obtain reliable uplift (or subsidence) deformation velocity fields and assess the associated uncertainties. In this study, by thoroughly considering the effects of hydrological loading (HYDL) that dominates the seasonal fluctuations and common mode error (CME), we analyzed the optimal noise characteristics of GNSS vertical time series at 39 stations spanning from January 2011 to August 2019 in the Chuandian region, southeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Our results showed that the optimal noise models without HYDL correction were white noise plus flicker noise (WN + FN), white noise plus power law noise (WN + PL), and white noise plus Gauss–Markov noise (WN + GGM), which accounted for 87%, 10%, and 3% of GNSS stations, respectively. By contrast, the optimal noise models at all stations were WN + FN and WN + PL after correction by different HYDLs. The correlation between CME and HYDL provided by the School and Observatory of Earth Sciences (EOST), namely EOST_HYDL, was 0.63~0.8 and the value of RMS reduction was 18.9~40.3% after removing EOST_HYDL time series from the CME, with a mean value of 31.8%, there is a good correlation and consistency between CME and EOST_HYDL. The absolute value of vertical velocity and its uncertainty with and without EOST_HYDL correction varied from 0.11 to 0.55 mm/a and 0 to 0.23 mm/a, respectively, implying that the effect of HYDL should not be neglected when performing optimal noise model analysis for GNSS vertical time series in the Chuandian region. Full article

A new realization of the international terrestrial reference frame, a combination of four different space geodetic techniques, was released in 2022. Each geodetic solution should be combined carefully based on the local tie information at the co-located site. Although many approaches have been successfully applied to connect different geodetic sensors, to date, there has been no unified mathematical representation for the target motions. Herein, a unified conical model was developed to estimate the invariant points of geodetic sensors using a more robust and consistent approach. It modeled the motion of targets, in either the horizontal or vertical axis, as cones; thus, homogeneous modeling was implemented. In addition to its simplicity, the model simultaneously estimated the tilting of the vertical axis and horizontal offset. The mathematical relationship and normality of the normal vector were modeled as a Gauss–Markov model with fixed constraints. The pre-computed initial coordinates of the pillars and targets were adjusted simultaneously to calculate the correlation information for the local tie vector. The complete model was successfully applied to the co-located site, which was transformed into a global reference frame via the Helmert transformation based on the global navigation satellite system campaign. The results showed that the proposed method is more efficient in terms of the number of parameters for invariant points of geodetic sensors (only 13% compared to the 3D circle fitting type conventional approach). In addition, the reliability of the estimated solution can be increased by avoiding an ill-conditioned linear system through the conical model. Full article

During channel modeling for high-mobility channels, such as high-speed train (HST) channels, the velocity of the mobile radio station is assumed to be constant. However, this might not be realistic due to the dynamic movement of the train along the track. Therefore, in this paper, an enhanced Gauss–Markov mobility model with a 3D non-stationary geometry based stochastic model (GBSM) for HST in MIMO Wireless Channels is proposed. The non-isotropic scatterers within a cluster are assumed to be around the sphere in which the mobile relay station (MRS) is located. The multi-path components (MPCs) are modeled with varying velocities, whereas the mobility model is a function of time. The MPCs are represented in a death–birth cluster using the Markov process. Furthermore, the channel statistics, i.e., the space-time correlation function, the root-mean-square Doppler shift, and the quasi-stationary interval, are derived from the non-stationary model. The model shows how the quasi-stationary time increases from 0.21 to 0.451 s with a decreasing acceleration of 0.6 to 0.2 m/s${}^2$ of the HST. In addition, the impact of the distribution of the angles on the channel statistics is presented. Finally, the simulated results are compared with the measured results. Therefore, there is a close relationship between the proposed model and the measured results, and the model can be used to characterize the channel’s properties. Full article

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a fundamental part of improving information technology systems. Essential AI techniques have revolutionized communication technology, such as mobility models and machine learning classification. Mobility models use a virtual testing methodology to evaluate new or updated products at a reasonable cost. Classifiers can be used with these models to achieve acceptable predictive accuracy. In this study, we analyzed the behavior of machine learning classification algorithms—more specifically decision tree (DT), logistic regression (LR), k-nearest neighbors (K-NN), latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), Gaussian naive Bayes (GNB), and support vector machine (SVM)—when using different mobility models, such as random walk, random direction, Gauss–Markov, and recurrent self-similar Gauss–Markov (RSSGM). Subsequently, classifiers were applied in order to detect the most efficient mobility model over wireless nodes. Random mobility models (i.e., random direction and random walk) provided fluctuating accuracy values when machine learning classifiers were applied—resulting values ranged from 39% to 81%. The Gauss–Markov and RSSGM models achieved good prediction accuracy in scenarios using a different number of access points in a defined area. Gauss–Markov reached 89% with the LDA classifier, whereas RSSGM showed the greatest accuracy with all classifiers and through various samples (i.e., 2000, 5000, and 10,000 steps during the whole experiment). Finally, the decision tree classifier obtained better overall results, achieving 98% predictive accuracy for 5000 steps. Full article

Conflict detection is an essential issue in flying ad hoc networks (FANETs) to ensure the safety of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during flights. This paper assesses the applicability and utilization of a conflict detection algorithm that sees immediate trajectory as a straight line for short periods with nonlinear mobility models such as Gauss–Markov (GM). First, we use a straight line conflict detection algorithm with two nonlinear mobility models. Then, we perform an extensive simulation study to evaluate the performance. Additionally, we present a comprehensive discussion to tune the collision detection parameters efficiently. Simulation results indicate that an algorithm considering the immediate trajectory as a straight line to predict conflicts between UAVs can be applied with nonlinear mobilities and can provide an acceptable performance measured in false and missed alarms. Full article

The Wanshan calibration site (WSCS) is the first in-situ field for calibration and validation (Cal/Val) of HY-2 satellite series in China. It was built in December, 2018 and began business operation in 2020. In order to define an accurate datum for Cal/Val of altimeters, the permanent GNSS station (PGS) data of the WSCS observed on Zhiwan (ZWAN) and Wailingding (WLDD) islands were processed using GAMIT/GLOBK software in a regional solution, combined with 61 GNSS stations distributed nearby, collected from the GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University (GRC). The Hector software was used to analyze the trend of North (N), East (E), and Up (U) directions using six different noise models with criteria of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), and the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). We found that the favorite noise models were white noise plus generalized Gauss–Markov noise (WN + GGM), followed by generalized Gauss–Markov noise (GGM). Then, we compared the PGS velocities of each direction with the Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center (SOPAC) output parameters and found that there was good agreement between them. The PGSs in the WSCS had velocities in the N, E, and U directions of −10.20 ± 0.39 mm/year, 31.09 ± 0.36 mm/year, and −2.24 ± 0.66 mm/year for WLDD, and −10.85 ± 0.38 mm/year, 30.67 ± 0.30 mm/year, and −3.81 ± 0.66 mm/year for ZWAN, respectively. The accurate datum was defined for Cal/Val of altimeters for WSCS as a professional in-situ site. Moreover, the zenith wet delay (ZWD) of the coastal PGSs in the regional and sub-regional solutions was calculated and used to validate the microwave radiometers (MWRs) of Jason-3, Haiyang-2B (HY-2B), and Haiyang-2C (HY-2C). A sub-regional PGS solution was processed using 19 continuous operational reference stations (CORS) of Hong Kong Geodetic Survey Services to derive the ZWD and validate the MWRs of the altimeters. The ZWD of the PGSs were compared with the radiosonde-derived data in the regional and sub-regional solutions. The difference between them was −7.72~2.79 mm with an RMS of 14.53~18.62 mm, which showed good consistency between the two. Then, the PGSs’ ZWD was used to validate the MWRs. To reduce the land contamination of the MWR, we determined validation distances of 6~30 km, 16~28 km, and 18~30 km for Jason-3, HY-2B, and HY-2C, respectively. The ZWD differences between PGSs and the Jason-3, HY-2B, and HY-2C altimeters were −2.30 ± 16.13 mm, 9.22 ± 22.73 mm, and −3.02 ± 22.07 mm, respectively. Full article