Search Results (11)

The Hong Kong Observatory has been using a parametric storm surge model to forecast the rise of sea level due to the passage of tropical cyclones. This model includes an offset parameter to account for the rise in sea level due to other meteorological factors. By adding the sea level rise forecast to the astronomical tide prediction using the harmonic analysis method, coastal sea level prediction can be produced for the sites with tidal observations, which supports the high water level forecast operation and alert service for risk assessment of sea flooding in Hong Kong. The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modelling System, which comprises the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), which in itself is coupled with wave model WaveWatch III and nearshore wave model SWAN, was tested with tropical cyclone cases where there was significant water level rise in Hong Kong. This case study includes two super typhoons, namely Hato in 2017 and Mangkhut in 2018, three cases of the combined effect of tropical cyclone and northeast monsoon, including Typhoon Kompasu in 2021, Typhoon Nesat and Severe Tropical Storm Nalgae in 2022, as well as two cases of monsoon-induced sea level anomalies in February 2022 and February 2023. This study aims to evaluate the ability of the WRF-ROMS-SWAN model to downscale the meteorological fields and the performance of the coupled models in capturing the maximum sea levels under the influence of significant weather events. The results suggested that both configurations could reproduce the sea level variations with a high coefficient of determination (R²) of around 0.9. However, the WRF-ROMS-SWAN model gave better results with a reduced RMSE in the surface wind and sea level anomaly predictions. Except for some cases where the atmospheric model has introduced errors during the downscaling of the ERA5 dataset, bias in the peak sea levels could be reduced by the WRF-ROMS-SWAN coupled model. The study result serves as one of the bases for the implementation of the three-way coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave modelling system for producing an integrated forecast of storm surge or sea level anomalies due to meteorological factors, as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters as an upgrade to the two-way coupled Operational Marine Forecasting System in the Hong Kong Observatory. Full article

This study developed a coupled atmospheric–marine model using the COAWST model system for the Harima Nada area between spring 2010 and winter 2011 to evaluate the seasonal influence of the Kako River’s discharge in the sea. The Kako River is one of the largest rivers in southwest Japan, contributing almost half of the freshwater discharged in the Harima Nada region in the Seto Inland Sea. Validation was conducted for the entire period, showing a good performance for the atmospheric and marine variables selected. Multiple experiments injecting an inert tracer in the Kako River estuary were performed to simulate the seasonal river water distribution from the estuary into the sea and to analyze the seasonal differences in concentration patterns and mean residence times in Harima Nada. Because the study area is shallow, the results were evaluated at the surface and 10 m depth layers and showed significant seasonal differences in tracer distribution, circulation patterns, and mean residence times for the region. On the other hand, differences seemed to not be significant during the same season at different depths. The obtained results also agreed with the area’s natural water circulation, showing that the Kako River waters tend to distribute towards the west coast of Harima Nada in the warmer seasons but shift towards the east in winter. The influence of the Kako River in the center of the study area is seasonal and strongly dependent on the direction of the horizontal velocities more than their magnitude. The mean residence times varied seasonally from approximately 30 days in spring to 12 days in fall. The magnitude of the horizontal velocity was found to be maximum during summer when circulation patterns at the surface and 10 m depth in the central part of Harima Nada also seem to promote the strongest horizontal and vertical mixes. Full article

Typhoon Noru (2022) was a historic storm that caused significant damage to the central region of Vietnam. Typhoon Noru has caused strong winds and torrential rainfall in Da Nang, Quang Nam, and Quang Ngai. Quang Nam Province saw many trees and power lines fall, and many areas were flooded. The Da Nang government has reported the typhoon toppled many trees, blew the rooftops of three houses, damaged the walls of several schools, and caused a power outage at some 3200 substations. It resulted in widespread flooding in coastal areas and downstream from the Vu Gia-Thu Bon River river basin. This study evaluates the impact of Typhoon Noru. The results show that: (1) The numerical simulation was applied to re-analyze the offshore meteorological field with the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) model as an input for 2D wave propagation and hydraulic models; (2) The study couples the 1D and 2D models in MIKE FLOOD to simulate the flood and inundation caused by Typhoon Noru in the study area. The calibration and validation results of the 1D hydraulic model, the 2D wave propagation model, and the 2D hydrodynamic model were reasonably good, with a Nash coefficient ranging from 0.84 to 0.96 and a percent bias (BIAS) of −0.9% to 7.5%. The results of the simulation showed that the flood and inundation caused by Typhoon Noru resulted in significant damage in two districts: Thang Binh in Quang Nam province and Hoa Vang in Da Nang province. The practical significance of these results is that they provide valuable support for warning systems and troubleshooting efforts related to the impact of typhoons. Full article

The present study is aimed to investigate sub-surface ocean processes and their contribution to the intensification of a tropical cyclone (TC) from a coupled-modeling perspective. The Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) model was employed to simulate TC Phailin, which originated over the Bay of Bengal and made landfall on the eastern coast of India in October 2013. Three sub-surface ocean condition datasets—viz., (a) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ocean Reanalysis, (b) the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSV2) Operational Analysis, and (c) the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) Reanalysis datasets—were used for the initial and boundary conditions for the oceanic component of the coupled model in three different simulations of TC Phailin. All the simulations showed a delay in intensification compared to the observation, and ECMWF simulated the most intensified TC. CFSV2 simulated a deeper mixed layer (ML) and higher mixing, which hindered the intensification. Furthermore, higher entrainment of cold water in the ML led to cold water reaching the surface and, consequently, decreased sea surface temperature, which acted as negative feedback in the intensification of the storm in the cases of CFSV2 and HYCOM. ECMWF realistically simulated the interactions of the TC with a cold-core eddy before landfall. A sudden increase in ML heat content, the addition of heat in the ML due to entrainment, and the prevention of cold water reaching the surface were indicative of the breaking of the barrier layer (BL) in ECMWF, which was further corroborated by the spatial distribution of BL thickness in the simulation. This acted as positive feedback in the intensification of the TC. The findings of this study strongly suggest that not only the incorporation of physical oceanic sub-surface processes in the modeling of TCs but also the proper representation of prevailing mesoscale features and ocean sub-surface temperature, salinity, and current profiles in datasets is essential for realistic simulations of TCs. Full article

Novaya Zemlya bora is a strong downslope windstorm in the east of the Barents Sea. This paper considers the influence of the Novaya Zemlya bora on the turbulent heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and on processes in the ocean. Another goal of this study is to demonstrate the sensitivity of simulated turbulent fluxes during bora to model coupling between atmosphere, ocean and sea waves. In this regard, a high-resolution numerical simulation of one winter bora episode was carried out using the COAWST (Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) modeling system, which includes the atmospheric (WRF-ARW model), oceanic (ROMS model), and sea waves (SWAN model) components. As shown by the simulation results, in the fully coupled experiment, turbulent heat exchange is enhanced in comparison with the uncoupled experiment (by 3% on average over the region). This is due to the atmosphere-sea-waves interaction, and the results are highly sensitive to the choice of roughness parameterization. The influence of the interaction of the atmospheric and oceanic components on turbulent fluxes in this episode is small on average. Bora has a significant impact on the processes in the ocean directly near the coast, forming a strong coastal current and making a decisive contribution to the formation of dense waters. In the open sea, the bora, or rather, the redistribution of the wind and temperature fields caused by the orography of Novaya Zemlya, leads to a decrease in ocean heat content losses due to a decrease in turbulent heat exchange in comparison with the experiment with flat topography. Full article

Typhoon Kalmaegi (2014) in the South China Sea (SCS) is simulated using a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave model (COAWST). A set of sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the effects of different model coupling combinations on the typhoon simulation. Model results are validated by employing in-situ data at four locations in the SCS, and best-track and satellite data. Correlation and root-mean-square difference are used to assess the simulation quality. A skill score system is defined from these two statistical criteria to evaluate the performance of model experiments relative to a baseline. Atmosphere–ocean feedback is crucial for accurate simulations. Our baseline experiment successfully reconstructs the atmospheric and oceanic conditions during Typhoon Kalmaegi. Typhoon-induced sea surface cooling that weakens the system due to less heat and moisture availability is captured best in a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)-coupled run. The Simulated Wave Nearshore (SWAN)-coupled run has demonstrated the ability to estimate sea surface roughness better. Intense winds lead to a larger surface roughness where more heat and momentum are exchanged, while the rougher surface causes more friction, slowing down surface winds. From our experiments, we show that these intricate interactions require a fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–ROMS–SWAN model to best reproduce the environment during a typhoon. Full article

The traditional flow of coastal ocean model data is from High-Performance Computing (HPC) centers to the local desktop, or to a file server where just the needed data can be extracted via services such as OPeNDAP. Analysis and visualization are then conducted using local hardware and software. This requires moving large amounts of data across the internet as well as acquiring and maintaining local hardware, software, and support personnel. Further, as data sets increase in size, the traditional workflow may not be scalable. Alternatively, recent advances make it possible to move data from HPC to the Cloud and perform interactive, scalable, data-proximate analysis and visualization, with simply a web browser user interface. We use the framework advanced by the NSF-funded Pangeo project, a free, open-source Python system which provides multi-user login via JupyterHub and parallel analysis via Dask, both running in Docker containers orchestrated by Kubernetes. Data are stored in the Zarr format, a Cloud-friendly n-dimensional array format that allows performant extraction of data by anyone without relying on data services like OPeNDAP. Interactive visual exploration of data on complex, large model grids is made possible by new tools in the Python PyViz ecosystem, which can render maps at screen resolution, dynamically updating on pan and zoom operations. Two examples are given: (1) Calculating the maximum water level at each grid cell from a 53-GB, 720-time-step, 9-million-node triangular mesh ADCIRC simulation of Hurricane Ike; (2) Creating a dashboard for visualizing data from a curvilinear orthogonal COAWST/ROMS forecast model. Full article

Between 19 and 22 January 2014, a baroclinic wave moving eastward from the Atlantic Ocean generated a cut-off low over the Strait of Gibraltar and was responsible for the subsequent intensification of an extra-tropical cyclone. This system exhibited tropical-like features in the following stages of its life cycle and remained active for approximately 80 h, moving along the Mediterranean Sea from west to east, eventually reaching the Adriatic Sea. Two different modeling approaches, which are comparable in terms of computational cost, are analyzed here to represent the cyclone evolution. First, a multi-physics ensemble using different microphysics and turbulence parameterization schemes available in the WRF (weather research and forecasting) model is employed. Second, the COAWST (coupled ocean–atmosphere wave sediment transport modeling system) suite, including WRF as an atmospheric model, ROMS (regional ocean modeling system) as an ocean model, and SWAN (simulating waves in nearshore) as a wave model, is used. The advantage of using a coupled modeling system is evaluated taking into account air–sea interaction processes at growing levels of complexity. First, a high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) field, updated every 6 h, is used to force a WRF model stand-alone atmospheric simulation. Later, a two-way atmosphere–ocean coupled configuration is employed using COAWST, where SST is updated using consistent sea surface fluxes in the atmospheric and ocean models. Results show that a 1D ocean model is able to reproduce the evolution of the cyclone rather well, given a high-resolution initial SST field produced by ROMS after a long spin-up time. Additionally, coupled simulations reproduce more accurate (less intense) sea surface heat fluxes and a cyclone track and intensity, compared with a multi-physics ensemble of standalone atmospheric simulations. Full article

Typhoons are major marine dynamic disasters that affect the coastal ocean areas of China. During a typhoon, the coupling dynamic factors, such as wind, waves, storm surges, and river runoff, greatly enhance the mass and energy exchange at the various interfaces of the ocean. A fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model in the South China Sea (SCS) was established based on the WRF, SWAN, and ROMS models. The variation of sea surface salinity (SSS) and ocean subsurface salinity caused by Typhoon Kai-tak (201213) was analyzed by the fully coupled model, and the basic characteristics of the response of the upper ocean to the typhoon are given in this paper. The simulation results demonstrate that the salinity of the sea surface showed a sharp change during Typhoon Kai-tak, and it changed gradually after entering the recovery period. During the passage of Typhoon Kai-tak, the disturbance caused by strong winds strengthened the mixing process of the water in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and its adjacent waters. As the typhoon developed, under the influence of Ekman pumping, the mixing effect between the subsurface and the bottom and the upper water was obvious. Before the impact of Typhoon Kai-tak, the salinity had obvious stratification characteristics along the water depth. Due to the influence of the storm surge, the surface water with increased salinity was transported to the estuary, which led to an increase in the salinity of the estuary’s surface water. In this condition, it is highly likely for there to be saltwater intrusion. The salinity distribution characteristics of three schemes (ROMS model only, coupled WRF-ROMS model, and fully coupled WRF-SWAN-ROMS model) were compared in this study. In the fully coupled WRF-SWAN-ROMS model, the disturbance of the bottom water was the most obvious, and the salinity value was greater than that of the coupled WRF-ROMS model, which indicates that under the influence of waves, the mixing and exchange abilities were strengthened. Full article

Studying the sea–air interaction between the upper ocean and typhoons is crucial to improve our understanding of heat and momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. There is a strong heat flux exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean during the impact of a typhoon, and the physical fields, such as the wind field, wave field, flow field, and SST field, also interact with each other. A fully coupled Atmosphere–Wave–Ocean model in the South China Sea was established by the mesoscale atmospheric model WRF, wave model SWAN, and the regional ocean model ROMS based on the COAWST model system. Typhoon Kai-tak was simulated using this fully coupled model and some other coupled schemes. In this paper, the variation of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean subsurface temperature caused by Typhoon Kai-tak is analyzed by the fully coupled model, and the basic characteristics of the response of the upper ocean to the typhoon are given. The simulation results demonstrate that the fully coupled WRF-SWAN-ROMS model shows that the typhoon passes through the sea with obvious cooling. In the cold eddy region, the sea surface temperature cools 4 to 5 °C, and the cooling zone is concentrated on the right side of the track. The change of sea surface temperature lags more than 12 h behind the change of sea surface height. The decrease of SST on the left side of the track was relatively small: ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 °C. The disturbance of typhoon causes the subsurface water to surge to the surface, changes the temperature distribution of the surface, and causes the mixing layer to deepen about 40 m to 60 m. The simulation results reveal the temporal and spatial distribution of sea temperature and mixed layer depth. The sea surface temperature field has an asymmetrical distribution in space and has a lag in time. The heat exchange at the air–sea interface is very strong under the influence of the typhoon. The heat exchange between the air and sea is divided into latent heat and sensible heat, and the latent heat generated by water vapor evaporation plays a dominant role in the heat exchange at the air–sea interface, which shows that the heat carried by the vaporization of the sea surface is one of the important factors for the decrease of sea temperature under the influence of the typhoon. Full article

In November 2011, an Atlantic depression affected the Mediterranean basin, eventually evolving into a Tropical-Like Cyclone (TLC or Mediterranean Hurricane, usually designated as Medicane). In the region affected by the Medicane, mean sea level pressures down to 990 hPa, wind speeds of hurricane intensity close to the eye (around 115 km/h) and intense rainfall in the prefrontal zone were reported. The intensity of this event, together with its long permanence over the sea, suggested its suitability as a paradigmatic case for investigating the sensitivity of a numerical modeling system to different configurations, air-sea interface parameterizations and coupling approaches. Toward this aim, a set of numerical experiments with different parameterization schemes and levels of coupling complexity was carried out within the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport System (COAWST), which allows the description of air-sea dynamics by coupling an atmospheric model (WRF), an ocean circulation model (ROMS), and a wave model (SWAN). The sensitivity to different initialization times and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations was firstly investigated by running a set of WRF standalone (atmospheric-only) simulations. In order to better understand the effect of coupling on the TLC formation, intensification and trajectory, different configurations of atmosphere-ocean coupling were subsequently tested, eventually including the full coupling among atmosphere, ocean and waves, also changing the PBL parameterization and the formulation of the surface roughness. Results show a strong sensitivity of both the trajectory and the intensity of this TLC to the initial conditions, while the tracks and intensities provided by the coupled modeling approaches explored in this study do not introduce drastic modifications with respect to those resulting from a fine-tuned standalone atmospheric run, though they provide by definition a better physical and energetic consistency. Nevertheless; the use of different schemes for the calculation of the surface roughness from wave motion, which reflects the description of air-sea interface processes, can significantly affect the results in the fully coupled runs. Full article