Search Results (216)

This paper examines source-conditioned spillovers and tail dependence in Belt and Road Initiative equity markets under China-related equity distress and WTI oil-price-decline distress. We define source-conditioned spillovers as incremental changes in pairwise dependence relative to a median-threshold benchmark, and source-conditioned tail dependence as the nonlinear higher-order component of these changes. Using a DCC-GARCH model with multivariate generalized hyperbolic innovations, we construct a linear co-moment layer and a nonlinear tail-dependence layer for 32 equity markets from 2007 to 2025. The resulting annual country-level exposure measures are then related to macroeconomic, China-linked, and oil-linked characteristics through benchmark fixed-effects and source-matched regressions. The empirical results imply that the linear layer mainly reflects background synchronization, whereas the nonlinear layer captures selective tail-state amplification. SSEC-conditioned exposure is more visible in China-adjacent and regionally linked equity relationships, while WTI-conditioned exposure is more visible among intermediary receiving markets and in nonlinear oil-related episodes. The comparison after 2013 suggests that BRI equity markets became more vulnerable to energy driven tail risk, as WTI distress is more strongly associated with nonlinear downside amplification. SSEC distress mainly increases the common linear exposure channel, indicating broader regional synchronization rather than a persistent rise in nonlinear contagion. The framework provides a financial-stability diagnostic for sustainable-finance resilience by distinguishing routine cross-market synchronization from nonlinear downside exposure relevant to cross-border financing, infrastructure investment, and energy-transition-related capital allocation. Full article

The countries in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) significantly influence global carbon emissions, and the spatial correlation and driving mechanisms of their emissions are crucial for regional emission reduction and global climate governance. This study constructs a carbon emission spatial correlation network, where links represent pairwise spatial correlations derived from a modified gravity model, using data from 54 BRI countries (2011–2020). It applies social network analysis (SNA) to examine the network structure and uses the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model (TERGM) to identify influencing factors. The main findings are as follows: (1) The BRI carbon emission network has become more interconnected and cohesive, with stronger regional connectivity and reduced inequality. (2) The network shows a core–periphery structure with notable spatial association patterns. Countries like Qatar, Israel, India, China, and the UAE have rapidly established carbon emission links, positioning them at the core due to their high connectivity and influence. (3) The network displays temporal dependence, with reciprocity associated with stronger mutual connections and transitivity associated with more cohesive network structures. Technological innovation and industrial structure optimization are positively associated with the formation of carbon emission connections, while energy structure and foreign investment are negatively associated with it. Economic development and technological innovation are associated with a country’s greater involvement in carbon emission connections, and countries with similar urbanization rates, energy, and industrial structures, but large economic disparities are more likely to form carbon emission associations, reflecting potential complementarities in the network structure. Full article

Frequent major emergencies threaten the security of the feed grain import supply chain. Enhancing import resilience is essential for supporting a new development pattern. However, research on a dedicated system to evaluate the resilience of China’s feed grain imports remains limited. In addition, strategies to strengthen resilience based on country-specific distances are still underexplored. This study constructs a comprehensive indicator system for China’s feed grain import resilience, using data from 2000 to 2023. It empirically examines the impact of country distance on this resilience across four dimensions: geographic distance, economic distance, institutional distance, and cultural distance. The findings indicate that country distance has an inhibitory effect on China’s feed grain import resilience. This conclusion holds true even after testing various adjustments, such as changes to core explanatory and dependent variables, modifications in sample sizes, alterations in measurement methods, and the introduction of instrumental variables. Further analysis reveals that country distance undermines feed grain import resilience by significantly reducing trade efficiency. However, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) help mitigate the negative impact of country distance on resilience. To strengthen China’s feed grain import resilience, it is crucial to enhance cultural and institutional trust, improve trade efficiency, and optimize import distribution. This study provides empirical evidence to support the safety of China’s feed grain imports and promote efficient, mutually beneficial trade in feed grains with partner countries. Full article

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, is one of the most ambitious global projects of the 21st century, aiming to enhance connectivity and trade between Asia and Europe. Within this framework, the New Eurasia Land Bridge Economic Corridor (NELBEC) stands out as a key transcontinental route where railway logistics plays a central role. However, few studies have systematically assessed the readiness of participating countries to integrate effectively into this corridor. This study aims to develop and apply a composite index to evaluate and compare the logistics and railway readiness of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Poland within the NELBEC. The methodology integrates the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (LPI) with railway-specific indicators derived from academic literature and institutional datasets. All indicators were normalized, weighted through expert consultation, and aggregated into two dimensions: logistics readiness and railway readiness. The results show that Russia exhibits the highest overall readiness, driven by strong railway capacity but weaker logistics performance, followed by Poland, with advanced infrastructure and efficient customs procedures. Kazakhstan and Belarus present lower readiness levels due to limited terminal capacity and outdated infrastructure. The findings offer policymakers and regional planners a tool to help them make decisions, identify infrastructure bottlenecks, prioritize investments, and design policies that will lead to a more sustainable integration into the BRI. Full article

Against the backdrop of safety becoming a key objective in the restructuring of industrial chains, the impact of China’s outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) on industrial chain risks warrants further exploration. Based on the Asian Development Bank’s Multi-Regional Input-Output Data (ADB-MRIOD) from 2007 to 2023, this study measures the external risk exposure of industrial chains from both supply-side and demand-side perspectives across 41 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies. Utilizing a two-way fixed effects panel model with lagged variables and instrumental techniques to mitigate endogeneity, we empirically investigate the mechanisms through which China’s OFDI influences the external risk exposure of industrial chains. The findings reveal that (1) China’s OFDI significantly reduces such risk exposure, and (2) effect heterogeneity observed across country groups and sectors—showing stronger mitigation in high-innovation and developing countries, as well as in capital-intensive industries. (3) Mechanism analysis identifies three transmission channels: enhancing the host country’s trade network status, rationalizing its industrial structure, and strengthening Sino-host country industrial linkages. The study provides empirical support for formulating targeted investment policies to enhance supply chain resilience under the BRI framework. Full article

Launched in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was originally devised to link East Asia and Europe through a network of physical and digital infrastructure. This article analyses the BRI’s development in the European context by offering a comparative analysis of 727 BRI and BRI-like projects within 46 European countries from 2005 to 2021. The analysis considers projects’ location, typology, status, and the main enterprises involved in each project. According to our results, there is a “two-speed Europe”. Indeed, while the vast majority of projects are included in the Digital Silk Road (e.g., telecommunication, transfer technology, data centre, 5G, fintech) and are located in North-Western Europe, traditional investments in infrastructure (e.g., ports, roads, railways, SEZ) are concentrated in South-Eastern Europe and the Balkan countries. While North-Western Europe is particularly concerned about cyber security and data protection issues, various South-Eastern European countries look favorably upon the development opportunities offered by the BRI. The BRI is clearly different from the Western approach to development (based on competition and economic liberalism) and integration (based on treaties). The BRI approach—including its platform, leveraging political flexibility, economic pragmatism, ability to mobilize resources, and ability to create synergies between state and business—could take advantage of the flaws of the European integration process. The BRI, with its strengths as well as weaknesses, represents an opportunity for the EU to understand the need for greater economic and political foresight, social cohesion, and economic flexibility to meet the development needs of its member countries. China, too, can draw inspiration from cooperating with EU countries on how to improve the reception of its investment initiatives by focusing on reciprocity, security guarantees, and protection of rights and the environment. Full article

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents one of the world’s most ambitious transnational infrastructure and investment programs, but its implementation faces considerable external risks. Specifically, these risks include geopolitical instability, regulatory disparities, socio-cultural conflicts, and economic volatility, which threaten project continuity, economic viability, and sustainability of the BRI framework. Consequently, effective risk recognition and prediction has become crucial for mitigating disruptions and supporting evidence-based policy formulation. What should be noticed is that existing risk management frameworks lack specialized, dynamically adaptive indicator systems capable of forecasting external risks specific to international engineering projects under the BRI. They tend to rely on static and traditional methods, which are ill-equipped to handle the dynamic and nonlinear nature of these transnational challenges. To address this gap, we have developed a machine learning-based early warning system. Drawing on a comprehensive dataset of 31 risk indicators across 155 BRI countries from 2013 to 2022, we constructed a stacked ensemble model optimized via Grid Search. The resulting ensemble model demonstrated exceptional predictive performance, achieving an R² value of 0.966 and outperforming all baseline methods significantly. By introducing a data-driven early-warning framework, our study contributes to more resilient infrastructure planning and improved risk governance mechanisms in the context of transnational cooperation initiatives. Full article

The advancement of green energy is a crucial mechanism for balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability, helping to mitigate conflicts between development and ecological preservation. This paper assesses the policy effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China’s overseas green energy projects (including gas) using the difference-in-difference (DID) model from 2009 to 2022. The findings show that, overall, the BRI has notably augmented China’s green energy projects in the BRI countries. This result remains robust after excluding potential interference from Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Specifically, its promotional effect shows heterogeneity. Firstly, the BRI has shown significant regional differences in promoting the development of China’s overseas green energy projects. Secondly, the BRI is more effective in promoting green energy projects in developing and low-risk countries compared to developed and high-risk countries. Additionally, it indicates that the BRI boosts green energy projects in BRI countries by enhancing their infrastructure quality, encompassing transportation, energy, communication, and financial infrastructure. Finally, based on the above findings, this paper provides context-specific recommendations aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of the BRI in promoting sustainable green energy cooperation. Full article

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) promotes significant cross-border investment, raising critical questions about its environmental consequences, particularly regarding carbon emissions. This paper uses panel data from 47 countries that participated in the “Belt and Road Initiative” earlier from 2000 to 2020 to conduct theoretical analysis and empirical research on the relationship between the coordinated development of two-way FDI and carbon emission intensity, dividing it into scale effect, technology effect and structure effect. The coordinated development of two-way FDI can have an increasing or decreasing impact on carbon emission intensity through these three effects. The main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) The improvement of the degree of coordinated development of two-way FDI significantly reduces carbon emission intensity. (2) The improvement of the degree of coordinated development of two-way FDI can enhance the level of technological innovation, while the improvement of the level of technological innovation will increase carbon emission intensity, thereby reducing the carbon emission reduction effect of the coordinated development of two-way FDI. (3) The improvement of the degree of coordinated development of two-way FDI can reduce carbon emission intensity by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following suggestions for the subsequent development of countries along the “Belt and Road”: (1) Further increase two-way FDI and promote the coordinated development of two-way FDI. (2) Promote the upgrading of industrial structure and the green transformation of technology. (3) Increase economic freedom to provide a good environment for economic development. Full article

Since the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, Chinese enterprises have expanded port and industrial investments along the Maritime Silk Road (MSR), forming a mutually reinforcing coupled system. Port investments reduce transportation costs and promote the relocation of industries to host countries. In turn, industrial agglomeration further promotes port investment. However, risks arising from political and economic uncertainties in host countries, as well as fluctuations in international relations, have become increasingly prominent. Due to the differences in the types and levels of risks faced by port and industrial investments, port investment decisions have become more complex and uncertain. To address this issue, this study constructs a bi-level optimization model. The upper model (UM) aims to maximize the total investment profit by optimizing the scale of multiple port investments. The lower model (LM) employs a User Equilibrium (UE) framework to determine the spatial distribution of industries under equilibrium conditions. Using 14 countries along the MSR as a case study, this paper estimates the number of newly constructed berths in each country and the corresponding investment returns. It also finds that local wages and land prices tend to rise after investment. The findings provide valuable references for Chinese enterprises in making overseas investment decisions. Full article

The carbon dioxide spillover effects and influencing factors of the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) in African countries must be assessed to evaluate the effectiveness, promote low-carbon transmissions in African countries, and provide recommendations for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. This novel study employs carbon dioxide emission intensity (CEI) and per capita carbon dioxide emissions (PCE) as dual indicators to evaluate the spatial spillover effects of 54 BRI African countries on their neighboring countries’ carbon emissions from 2007 to 2023. It identifies the key factors and mechanisms affecting these spillover effects using the spatial differences-in-differences (SDID) model. Results indicate that since the launch of the BRI, the CEI and PCE of BRI African countries have significantly increased, largely due to trade patterns and industrialization structures. Greater trade openness has further boosted local economic development, thereby increasing carbon dioxide’s spatial spillover. Government management and corruption control levels show some heterogeneity in the spillover effects, which may be attributed to long-standing issues of weak institutional enforcement in Africa. Overall, this study reveals the complex relationship between BRI African economic development and environmental outcomes, highlighting the importance of developing sustainable development strategies and establishing strong differentiated regulatory regimes to effectively address environmental challenges. Full article

This study evaluates the competitiveness and sustainable development prospects of French-speaking African countries by constructing a comprehensive framework integrating the TOPSIS method and adaptive LASSO algorithm. Using multivariate data from sources such as the World Bank, 30 indicators covering core, basic, and auxiliary competitiveness were selected to quantitatively analyze the competitiveness of 26 French-speaking African countries. Results show that their comprehensive competitiveness exhibits spatial patterns of “high in the north and south, low in the east and west” and “high in coastal areas, low in inland areas”. Algeria, Morocco, and six other countries demonstrate high competitiveness, while Central African countries generally show low competitiveness. The adaptive LASSO algorithm identifies three key influencing factors, including the proportion of R&D expenditure to GDP, high-tech exports, and total reserves, as well as five secondary key factors, including the number of patent applications and total number of domestic listed companies, revealing that scientific and technological investment, financial strength, and innovation transformation capabilities are core constraints. Based on these findings, sustainable development strategies are proposed, such as strengthening scientific and technological research and development and innovation transformation, optimizing financial reserves and capital markets, and promoting China–Africa collaborative cooperation, providing decision-making references for competitiveness improvement and regional cooperation of French-speaking African countries under the background of the “Belt and Road Initiative”. Full article

This paper investigates the impact of global EPU and China’s EPU on China’s FDI inflows, examining whether financial development and political stability moderate these relationships. Using panel data from 212 countries spanning 2009 to 2022, we first establish causal direction through Granger causality tests, then employ instrumental variable estimation to address endogeneity concerns, while conducting heterogeneity analysis across development levels and Belt and Road Initiative participation. We find that both global and domestic EPU significantly reduce China’s FDI inflows, with a 1% increase in China’s EPU leading to a 0.083% decrease in FDI inflows. However, political stability and financial development serve as effective moderators, reducing EPU’s negative impact by up to 60% and 70%, respectively. The effects vary substantially across investor countries: non-developed countries show ten times stronger sensitivity to EPU than developed countries, while Belt and Road Initiative countries demonstrate 86% lower sensitivity than non-BRI countries. This research advances EPU–FDI theory by demonstrating how institutional quality creates “policy buffers” against uncertainty and provides policymakers with evidence that strengthening political stability and financial development can maintain investor confidence during uncertain periods, while strategic international partnerships can insulate investment flows from policy volatility. Full article

Under the background of globalization and the latest technological changes, many enterprises ensure corporate competitiveness and sustainable development by deploying production globalization and transforming production modes. This paper proposes a task-based enterprise model to study how enterprises’ production mode transformation toward intelligent manufacturing affects corporate offshoring production. Intelligent manufacturing forms relative push–pull forces on corporate offshoring production through reshoring effects and offshoring effects on the extensive margin of task sets while promoting corporate offshoring production through productivity effects on the intensive margin. Empirically, this paper constructs a staggered quasi-natural experiment using China’s Intelligent Manufacturing Pilot Demonstration Projects (IMPDP), adopts the heterogeneity-robust nonlinear Difference-in-Differences (DID) method, and confirms that intelligent manufacturing has significant positive causal effects on Chinese manufacturing enterprises’ offshoring production. The reshoring effect of intelligent manufacturing is stronger than the offshoring effect, but its powerful productivity effect masks the reshoring effect in overall empirical results. The positive effects of intelligent manufacturing are more significant in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and capital-intensive enterprises. Further considering host country selection for corporate offshoring, this study finds that intelligent manufacturing simultaneously promotes corporate offshoring production to both developed and developing countries, but enterprises prefer Belt and Road Initiative countries. Additionally, intelligent manufacturing also promotes corporate offshore trade activities while causing the reshoring of offshore R&D activities. Overall, the transition of production modes toward intelligent manufacturing in Chinese manufacturing enterprises generally leads to a further expansion of corporate offshoring production. Full article

Ensuring food security and sustainable land management is a global priority, particularly within countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This study investigates the role of cultivated land regulation systems in influencing agricultural productivity and trade efficiency, focusing on China, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan. Despite the critical role of cultivated land, variations in land-regulation policies and regional practices have led to disparate outcomes in agricultural productivity, sustainability, and trade efficiency. A comparative methodology was employed, integrating descriptive statistics, regression modeling, and geospatial analysis to evaluate yield trends, irrigation coverage, land-use efficiency, and trade performance between 2016 and 2022. Data were sourced from government reports, international databases, and satellite imagery. The results indicate that China’s centralized land-regulation policies—such as the Red Line Policy—have stabilized arable land, enhanced average crop yields (6.1 tons/ha in 2022), and significantly expanded agricultural export volumes. In Russia, land consolidation and modernization efforts have improved productivity (2.9 tons/ha in 2022) and export capacities, though limited irrigation remains a challenge. Kyrgyzstan, while showing gradual improvements through cooperative farming, continues to face fragmentation, infrastructure deficiencies, and limited trade growth. The study concludes that harmonized and targeted land-regulation policies—coupled with infrastructure investments and regulatory alignment—are essential to secure productivity, improve trade efficiency, and strengthen agricultural resilience across BRI countries. Strengthened investments in infrastructure, land-tenure security, and policy alignment across BRI countries are recommended to enhance food security and agricultural trade efficiency. Full article