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Keywords = Atlantic storm track

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15 pages, 3464 KiB  
Article
Climatological Study on Cyclone Genesis and Tracks in Southern Brazil from 1979 to 2019
by Bruna Alves Oliveira Destéfani, Micael Fernando Broggio and Carlos Alberto Eiras Garcia
Atmosphere 2025, 16(1), 92; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16010092 - 16 Jan 2025
Viewed by 1058
Abstract
This study investigates cyclone dynamics and impacts in the Southwestern Atlantic, with a focus on their effects on southern Brazil. As climate change intensifies coastal vulnerability, understanding cyclone behavior has become essential. Using the TRACK and cycloTRACK algorithms, we examined cyclone trajectories and [...] Read more.
This study investigates cyclone dynamics and impacts in the Southwestern Atlantic, with a focus on their effects on southern Brazil. As climate change intensifies coastal vulnerability, understanding cyclone behavior has become essential. Using the TRACK and cycloTRACK algorithms, we examined cyclone trajectories and cyclogenesis densities from 1979 to 2019 to analyze seasonal and spatial patterns shaped by large-scale atmospheric circulations, including the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). The analysis explores trends in cyclone activity across various temporal and spatial scales, identifying key regions of cyclogenesis and trajectory density. Results indicate that the cycloTRACK algorithm is more effective at tracking more intense and consistent cyclones, excluding weaker systems. Seasonal patterns suggest variability in cyclone formation, likely associated with atmospheric instability and ocean–atmosphere interactions. While trends reveal an increase in cyclone passages in southern Brazil, these systems are strongly associated with extreme climatic events in the region, including coastal storms, intense precipitation, strong winds, and high waves. By clarifying cyclone dynamics and seasonal patterns, this study enhances our understanding of cyclone behavior and contributes to improved assessments of regional climate resilience in southern Brazil. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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15 pages, 9249 KiB  
Article
Impacts of Strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events on Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in Two Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phases during 1950–2010
by Cuijiao Chu, Xiu-Qun Yang, Xuguang Sun, Xuejuan Ren, Edmund K. M. Chang, Jiabei Fang and Haibo Hu
Sustainability 2023, 15(24), 16565; https://doi.org/10.3390/su152416565 - 5 Dec 2023
Viewed by 1616
Abstract
Northern Hemisphere storm track activities (NHSTs) not only influence the weather and climate along their paths, but they also play a crucial role in climate systems by systematically transporting heat, momentum, and moisture. Distinguish from previous studies focusing on atmospheric circulation anomalies, this [...] Read more.
Northern Hemisphere storm track activities (NHSTs) not only influence the weather and climate along their paths, but they also play a crucial role in climate systems by systematically transporting heat, momentum, and moisture. Distinguish from previous studies focusing on atmospheric circulation anomalies, this study provides further evidence of wintertime NHSTs variation under the influence of strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variation with ERA-20C reanalysis data, from two mathematical aspects of linear superposition and nonlinear modulation. While ENSO warm/cold events lead the entire NHSTs to a general south/north shift, the ENSO impact in two PDO phases exhibits a remarkable difference with the PDO phase. The Pacific storm track (PST) anomalies largely strengthen equatorward and downstream when both ENSO and PDO are in phase, but its anomalies tend to be weakened when ENSO and PDO are out of phase. Generally, the opposite situation occurs with Atlantic storm track (AST) anomalies, which display a strengthening dipole pattern when ENSO and PDO are out of phase. Apparently, the result is roughly a linear superposition of ENSO and PDO-only impacts. Nevertheless, further analyses indicate that the nonlinear modulation of PDO on the ENSO impact on NHSTs exists. With respect to the PST, it exhibits approximately parallel bands of south-north dipole anomalies when ENSO is in the PDO positive phase, but only the south branch remains when ENSO is in the PDO negative phase. Generally, a similar situation occurs to AST anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean. The modulation may be mainly associated with the atmospheric mean flow anomalies and the midlatitude sea surface temperature anomalies to ENSO in different PDO phases. To some extent, the results may be beneficial for understanding the variation of extreme weather events brought by NHSTs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Air, Climate Change and Sustainability)
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15 pages, 10585 KiB  
Article
The Gulf Stream Front Amplifies Large-Scale SST Feedback to the Atmosphere in North Atlantic Winter
by Xiaomin Xie, Yinglai Jia and Ziqing Han
Atmosphere 2023, 14(12), 1758; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14121758 - 29 Nov 2023
Viewed by 1680
Abstract
The Gulf Stream (GS) ocean front releases intense moisture and heat to the atmosphere and regulates storm tracks and zonal jets in winter. The large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central North Atlantic provides important feedback to the atmosphere in winter, [...] Read more.
The Gulf Stream (GS) ocean front releases intense moisture and heat to the atmosphere and regulates storm tracks and zonal jets in winter. The large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central North Atlantic provides important feedback to the atmosphere in winter, but the role played in this feedback by the GS front inside the SST anomaly has not been extensively studied. In this study, two sets of ensemble experiments were conducted using a global community atmosphere model forced by SST in boreal winters from 2000 to 2013. The regional averaged SST and its variation in the experiments were identical, with the only difference being the strength of the SST front in the GS region. The large-scale SST anomaly in the central North Atlantic in our model provides feedback to the atmosphere and excites a wave train that extends across Eurasia. With the inclusion of the strong GS front, the first center of the wave train in the North Atlantic is strengthened by approximately 40%, and the wave activity flux toward downstream is highly intensified. When the large-scale SST anomaly is combined with a strong GS front, greatly increased water vapor is released from the GS region, resulting in a 50% increase in moisture transport toward Western Europe. In this scenario, precipitation and diabatic heating both increase greatly on the western Scandinavian Peninsula. With the release of deep diabatic heating, a strong upward wave activity flux is triggered, and the wave train excited by the large-scale SST variation is significantly intensified. These findings suggest that the strong SST front in the large-scale SST anomaly in the central North Atlantic significantly amplifies its feedback to the atmosphere in winter. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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23 pages, 817 KiB  
Article
An Adaptive Learning Approach for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Correction
by Rui Chen, Ralf Toumi, Xinjie Shi, Xiang Wang, Yao Duan and Weimin Zhang
Remote Sens. 2023, 15(22), 5341; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15225341 - 13 Nov 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1827
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are dangerous weather events; accurate monitoring and forecasting can provide significant early warning to reduce loss of life and property. However, the study of tropical cyclone intensity remains challenging, both in terms of theory and forecasting. ERA5 reanalysis is a [...] Read more.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are dangerous weather events; accurate monitoring and forecasting can provide significant early warning to reduce loss of life and property. However, the study of tropical cyclone intensity remains challenging, both in terms of theory and forecasting. ERA5 reanalysis is a benchmark data set for tropical cyclone studies, yet the maximum wind speed error is very large (68 kts) and is still 19 kts after simple linear correction, even in the better sampled North Atlantic. Here, we develop an adaptive learning approach to correct the intensity in the ERA5 reanalysis, by optimising the inputs to overcome the problems caused by the poor data quality and updating the features to improve the generalisability of the deep learning-based model. Specifically, we use understanding of TC properties to increase the representativeness of the inputs so that the general features can be learned with deep neural networks in the sample space, and then use domain adaptation to update the general features from the known domain with historical storms to the specific features for the unknown domain of new storms. This approach can reduce the error to only 6 kts which is within the uncertainty of the best track data in the international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) in the North Atlantic. The method may have wide applicability, such as when extending it to the correction of intensity estimation from satellite imagery and intensity prediction from dynamical models. Full article
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18 pages, 5226 KiB  
Article
Assessing Property Exposure to Cyclonic Winds under Climate Change
by Evelyn G. Shu, Mariah Pope, Bradley Wilson, Mark Bauer, Mike Amodeo, Neil Freeman and Jeremy R. Porter
Climate 2023, 11(11), 217; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11110217 - 1 Nov 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2733
Abstract
Properties in the United States face increasing exposure to tropical storm-level winds due to climate change. Driving this increasing risk are severe hurricanes that are more likely to occur when hurricanes form in the future and the northward shift of Atlantic-formed hurricanes, increasing [...] Read more.
Properties in the United States face increasing exposure to tropical storm-level winds due to climate change. Driving this increasing risk are severe hurricanes that are more likely to occur when hurricanes form in the future and the northward shift of Atlantic-formed hurricanes, increasing the estimated exposure of buildings and infrastructure to damaging winds. The wind model presented here combines open data and science by utilizing high-resolution topography, computer-modeled hurricane tracks, and property data to create hyper-local tropical cyclone wind exposure information for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from current time to 2053 under RCP 4.5. This allows for a detailed evaluation of probable wind speeds by several return periods, probabilities of cyclonic thresholds being reached or surpassed, and a comparison of this cyclone-level wind exposure between the current year and 30 years into the future under climatic changes. The results of this research reveal extensive exposure along the Gulf and Southeastern Atlantic Coasts, with significant growing exposure in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the country. Full article
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17 pages, 16465 KiB  
Article
Possible Influence of Solar Cyclicity on Extratropical Cyclone Trajectories in the North Atlantic
by Svetlana Veretenenko and Pavel Dmitriev
Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1339; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091339 - 25 Aug 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2563
Abstract
In this work, we study long-term changes in the main directions of movement (storm tracks) of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic for the period 1873–2021, based on the data of the MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure) archives from the Climatic Research Unit [...] Read more.
In this work, we study long-term changes in the main directions of movement (storm tracks) of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic for the period 1873–2021, based on the data of the MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure) archives from the Climatic Research Unit and NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis. It was found that in the cold half of the year, the mean latitudes of storm tracks undergo oscillations with the periods ~80–100, ~40–45, and ~22 years, which indicates their possible association with solar cyclicity. Cyclone trajectories were found to shift northward at the minimum of the Gleissberg secular cycle (~1900–1930) and southward at its maximum (~1940–1960). The secular variations are the most pronounced in the western part of the North Atlantic, with the peak-to-peak amplitude reaching ~3–5°, and disappear at longitudes east of Greenwich. On the bidecadal timescale, cyclone tracks were found to shift noticeably to the north in even solar cycles and weakly to the south in odd ones. The most significant northward shifts (~1–2°) were detected during the descending phase and the minimum of the solar cycle (from the second to the sixth year after the solar maximum) in the eastern part of the North Atlantic (longitudes 30–10° W). The detected oscillations of cyclone trajectories may be caused by long-term changes in the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex associated with galactic cosmic ray variations and geomagnetic activity. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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21 pages, 1606 KiB  
Article
The Response of Southwest Atlantic Storm Tracks to Climate Change in the Brazilian Earth System Model
by Juliana Damasceno Dos Santos, Jeferson Prietsch Machado and Jaci Maria Bilhalva Saraiva
Atmosphere 2023, 14(7), 1055; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071055 - 21 Jun 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1581
Abstract
The Earth’s weather and climate are strongly influenced by synoptic-scale systems such as extratropical cyclones. From this point of view, extratropical cyclones are very important for Equator–Pole heat exchange, and their positions are relevant to the understanding of the behavior of this system [...] Read more.
The Earth’s weather and climate are strongly influenced by synoptic-scale systems such as extratropical cyclones. From this point of view, extratropical cyclones are very important for Equator–Pole heat exchange, and their positions are relevant to the understanding of the behavior of this system under current conditions and in the context of climate change. Baroclinic instability (BI), meridional heat flux (MHF), and kinetic energy (KE) are among the ways of calculating storm tracks (the regions in which extratropical cyclones most often occur). Forecasting is important for predicting the evolution of these phenomena and preparing future political decisions. In this study, we used ERA5 reanalysis data and BESM model forecasts to calculate BI, MHF, and KE. Overestimation of the BESM BI at lower and higher latitudes and underestimation of BI at medium latitudes were observed. In general, KE and MHF were underestimated and were displaced southward in the BESM. The analyses show a tendency towards poleward displacement of these tracks for all variables studied in in this paper. The scenarios show the same bias, with RCP8.5 having more extreme changes in all situations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in Brazil)
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17 pages, 6876 KiB  
Article
Air Quality at Ponta Delgada City (Azores) Is Unaffected so Far by Growing Cruise Ship Transit in Recent Years
by Filipe Bernardo, Patrícia Garcia and Armindo Rodrigues
Atmosphere 2023, 14(1), 188; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010188 - 16 Jan 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3971
Abstract
The ease of travel allowed by contemporary means of long-range transportation has brought increasingly higher numbers of visitors to remote and relatively undisturbed insular territories. In a framework of environmental conservation of the natural patrimony, sustainably accommodating touristic flooding and the associated polluting [...] Read more.
The ease of travel allowed by contemporary means of long-range transportation has brought increasingly higher numbers of visitors to remote and relatively undisturbed insular territories. In a framework of environmental conservation of the natural patrimony, sustainably accommodating touristic flooding and the associated polluting footprint poses a demanding challenge. Over the past decade, Ponta Delgada, the largest city of the mid-Atlantic Azores archipelago, has become a hotspot for transatlantic cruise ship (CS) lines in spring and autumn. CSs are substantial contributors to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as hazardous sulphur (SOx) and nitrogen (NOx) oxides. It is hereby retrospectively investigated whether the background levels of air pollutants were raised following the CS influx at Ponta Delgada, which conventionally displays great air quality. The daily CS traffic at the local harbor was associated with the daily concentrations of air pollutants (SO2, O3, NO2, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5), monitored by the local urban background monitoring station (~1.3 km northwards). Exceedances above daily legislated limits from 2013 until 2020 only occurred sporadically for PM10 and PM2.5, often during episodes of natural dust storms. No major correlation was found between CS parameters with the recorded values of pollutants, although a noticeable signal of NOX increase of southern origin is observed during spring days with CS presence. Daily data suggest CS influx has not strongly influenced background air quality. A near-source, real-time monitoring network should be implemented in the city to provide the necessary spatial and temporal resolution for tracking short-term fluctuations in air pollutants during CS arrivals and departures. Full article
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25 pages, 26202 KiB  
Article
Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models
by Elena N. Voskresenskaya, Veronika N. Maslova, Andrey S. Lubkov and Viktor Y. Zhuravskiy
Atmosphere 2022, 13(10), 1573; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101573 - 26 Sep 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2513
Abstract
A better understanding of expected future cyclonic activity, especially in winter in the Mediterranean basin, is essential in developing scientifically based adaptation and mitigation methods to study extreme precipitation and wind anomalies. The aim of this study was to analyze the changes in [...] Read more.
A better understanding of expected future cyclonic activity, especially in winter in the Mediterranean basin, is essential in developing scientifically based adaptation and mitigation methods to study extreme precipitation and wind anomalies. The aim of this study was to analyze the changes in winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea region, as part of the North Atlantic–European sector, at three 15 year periods: the beginning, middle, and end of the 21st century. Our projections were based on an ensemble of seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phase 6, models, which showed the best agreement with NCEP/NCAR and ERA5 reanalyses under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 and highest-emission SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed a consistent increase in the frequency of cyclones over Central Europe and the British Isles, which was associated with shifts in cyclone tracks: northward from the western Mediterranean region and southward from the Icelandic Low region. The latter shift led to a decrease in the frequency in the northern Atlantic–European region. At the same time, there was a reduction in the frequency of cyclones over the eastern region of the Mediterranean Sea, consistent with the decrease in cyclogenesis events. Area-averaged cyclone numbers in the western and eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea subregions reduced at the end of the century under the highest-emission scenario, but not constantly. There was a rise in the middle of the 21st century under both scenarios, which may be linked to long-term multidecadal variability or regional features. In general, our study showed that the future winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea region will respond unevenly to global climate changes, due to regional and monthly features and long-term quasiperiodic variability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Feature Papers in Atmosphere Science)
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15 pages, 4762 KiB  
Article
Evaluating the Influence of CAM5 Aerosol Configuration on Simulated Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic
by J. Jacob A. Huff, Kevin A. Reed, Julio T. Bacmeister and Michael F. Wehner
Climate 2022, 10(9), 130; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090130 - 31 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 7382
Abstract
This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, [...] Read more.
This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, genesis density, potential intensity, and genesis potential index. This work shows that both CAM5 configurations simulate reduced storm frequency when compared to observations and that differences in TC climatology between the model configurations can be explained by differences in the large-scale environment. The analysis shows that simulation with the prognostic aerosol parameterization scheme reasonably captures the observed interannual variability in tropical cyclones and aerosols (i.e., dust) in the North Atlantic, while simulation with the prescribed configuration (climatology) is less favorable. The correlation between dust and TCs in observations (i.e., reanalysis and satellite datasets) is shown to be negative, and this relationship was also found for the prognostic aerosol configuration despite an overall decrease in the frequency of TCs. This indicates that, to accurately replicate certain aspects of TC interannual variability, the aerosol configuration within CAM5 needs to account for the appropriate dust variability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes)
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22 pages, 7102 KiB  
Article
Optimizing the Assimilation of the GOES-16/-17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the Hurricane Weather Forecasting (HWRF) Model
by Agnes H. N. Lim, Sharon E. Nebuda, James A. Jung, Jaime M. Daniels, Andrew Bailey, Wayne Bresky, Li Bi and Avichal Mehra
Remote Sens. 2022, 14(13), 3068; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14133068 - 26 Jun 2022
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2237
Abstract
Hourly and 15 min GOES-16 and -17 atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are evaluated using the 2020 version of the operational HWRF to assess their impact on tropical cyclone forecasting. The evaluation includes infrared (IR), visible (VIS), shortwave (SWIR), clear air, and cloud top [...] Read more.
Hourly and 15 min GOES-16 and -17 atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are evaluated using the 2020 version of the operational HWRF to assess their impact on tropical cyclone forecasting. The evaluation includes infrared (IR), visible (VIS), shortwave (SWIR), clear air, and cloud top water vapor (CAWV and CTWV) AMVs derived from the ABI imagery. Several changes are made to optimize the assimilation of these winds. The observational error profile is inflated to avoid overweighting of the AMVs. The range of allowable AMV wind speeds entering the assimilation system is increased to include larger wind speeds observed in tropical cyclones. Two data quality checks, commonly used for rejecting AMVs, namely QI and PCT1, have been removed. These changes resulted in a 20–40% increase in the number of AMVs assimilated. One additional change, specific to infrared AMVs, is narrowing the atmospheric layer where IR AMVs are rejected from 400–800 hPa to 400–600 hPa. The AMVs’ impact on forecast skill is assessed using storms from the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific, respectively. Overall, GOES-16 and -17 AMVs are beneficial for improving tropical cyclone forecasting. Positive analysis and forecast impact are obtained for track error, intensity error, minimum central pressure error, and storm size. Full article
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20 pages, 8385 KiB  
Article
Atmospheric Drivers of Oceanic North Swells in the Eastern Caribbean
by Timothy W. Hawkins, Isabelle Gouirand, Theodore Allen and Ali Belmadani
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10(2), 183; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10020183 - 29 Jan 2022
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3333
Abstract
Large wintertime ocean swells in the Caribbean, known as north swells, generate high surf and expose communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure to hazardous conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions and cluster analyses using ERA5 reanalysis swell data are performed to characterize north swells in the eastern [...] Read more.
Large wintertime ocean swells in the Caribbean, known as north swells, generate high surf and expose communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure to hazardous conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions and cluster analyses using ERA5 reanalysis swell data are performed to characterize north swells in the eastern Caribbean and to establish a ranked list of historical events. ERA5 atmospheric and swell data are used to create basin-scale sea-level pressure, surface wind and swell composites for north swell events of different magnitudes. Additionally, storm events are identified in the mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean. North swells are predominantly generated by storms that intensify off the North American east coast. However, there is a subset of moderately sized swells associated with a westward-located high-pressure system in the North Atlantic. While lower sea-level pressure and stronger surface winds are important for generating larger swells, the location of the low-pressure center and storm track as well the zonal speed of the storm are critical in the development of large eastern Caribbean north swells. The largest such events are associated with storms located comparatively further southeast, with a more zonal trajectory, and slower zonal speed. Large storms located further northwest, with a more southwest to northeast trajectory, and faster zonal speeds are associated with weaker north swells or in many cases, no significant north swell in the eastern Caribbean. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wave Climates)
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20 pages, 3573 KiB  
Review
Geological Oceanography of the Pliocene Warm Period: A Review with Predictions on the Future of Global Warming
by Markes E. Johnson
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2021, 9(11), 1210; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9111210 - 2 Nov 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 5796
Abstract
Atmospheric carbon dioxide reached a record concentration of 419 parts per million in May 2021, 50% higher than preindustrial levels at 280 parts per million. The rise of CO2 as a heat-trapping gas is the principal barometer tracking global warming attributed to [...] Read more.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide reached a record concentration of 419 parts per million in May 2021, 50% higher than preindustrial levels at 280 parts per million. The rise of CO2 as a heat-trapping gas is the principal barometer tracking global warming attributed to a global average increase of 1.2 °C over the last 250 years. Ongoing global warming is expected to perturb extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes/typhoons), strengthened by elevated sea-surface temperatures. The melting of polar ice caps in Antarctica and Greenland also is expected to result in rising sea levels through the rest of this century. Various proxies for the estimate of long-term change in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are available through geological oceanography, which relies on the recovery of deep-sea cores for the study of sediments enriched in temperature-sensitive planktonic foraminifera and other algal residues. The Pliocene Warm Period occurred between ~4.5 and 3.0 million years ago, when sea level and average global temperatures were higher than today, and it is widely regarded as a predictive analog to the future impact of climate change. This work reviews some of the extensive literature on the geological oceanography of the Pliocene Warm Period together with a summary of land-based studies in paleotempestology focused on coastal boulder deposits (CBDs) and coastal outwash deposits (CODs) from the margin of the Pacific basin and parts of the North Atlantic basin. Ranging in age from the Pliocene through the Holocene, the values of such deposits serve as fixed geophysical markers, against which the micro-fossil record for the Pliocene Warm Period may be compared, as a registry of storm events from Pliocene and post-Pliocene times. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Advances in Geological Oceanography)
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23 pages, 12250 KiB  
Article
Recent Changes in Storm Track over the Southeast Europe: A Mechanism for Changes in Extreme Cyclone Variability
by Mihaela Caian, Florinela Georgescu, Mirela Pietrisi and Oana Catrina
Atmosphere 2021, 12(10), 1362; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101362 - 18 Oct 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3370
Abstract
Recent changes in cyclone tracks crossing Southeast Europe are investigated for the last few decades (1980–1999 compared with 2000–2019) using a developed objective method. The response in number, severity, and persistence of the tracks are analyzed based on the source of origin (the [...] Read more.
Recent changes in cyclone tracks crossing Southeast Europe are investigated for the last few decades (1980–1999 compared with 2000–2019) using a developed objective method. The response in number, severity, and persistence of the tracks are analyzed based on the source of origin (the Mediterranean Sea sub-domains) and the target area (Romania-centered domain). In winter, extreme cyclones became more frequent in the south and were also more persistent in the northeast of Romania. In summer, these became more intense and frequent, mainly over the south and southeast of Romania, where they also showed a significant increase in persistence. The regional extreme changes are related to polar jet displacements and further enhanced by the coupling of the sub-tropical jet in the Euro-Atlantic area, such as southwestwards shift in winter jets and a split-type configuration that shifts northeastwards and southeastwards in the summer. These provide a mechanism for regional variability of extreme cyclones through two paths, respectively, by shifting the origins of the tracks and by shifting the interaction between the anomaly jet streaks and the climatological storm tracks. Large-scale drivers of these changes are analyzed in relation to the main modes of atmospheric variability. The tracks number over the target domain is mainly driven during the cold season through a combined action of AO and Polar–European modes, and in summer by the AMO and East-Asian modes. These links and the circulation mode’s recent variability are consistent with changes found in the jet and storm tracks. Full article
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13 pages, 5967 KiB  
Article
Decadal Variation of Atmospheric Rivers in Relation to North Atlantic Tripole SST Mode
by Jie Zhang, Yinglai Jia, Rui Ji and Yifei Wu
Atmosphere 2021, 12(10), 1252; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101252 - 27 Sep 2021
Viewed by 2870
Abstract
The North Atlantic tripole (NAT) is the leading mode of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the decadal time scale. Although the NAT is forced by North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), it also has an effect on the atmosphere; for example, the early winter tripole SST [...] Read more.
The North Atlantic tripole (NAT) is the leading mode of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the decadal time scale. Although the NAT is forced by North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), it also has an effect on the atmosphere; for example, the early winter tripole SST signal can influence storm tracks in March. As the NAT not only changes the baroclinicity of the lower layer but also modifies the moisture being released into the atmosphere, we surmise that the NAT has an impact on moisture transport and atmospheric rivers in the decadal time scale. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, the decadal variations in Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the North Atlantic in boral winter in relation to NAT phases were studied. During the positive NAT phase, the positive SST in the central and western North Atlantic increases the humidity and causes an anticyclonic wind response, which enhances the northeastward transport of moisture. As a result, ARs tend to be longer and transport more moisture toward northwestern Europe. This causes enhanced extreme rain in the UK and Norway. During the negative NAT phase, the positive SST anomalies in the south and east of the North Atlantic provide more moisture, induce a southward shift of the ARs and enhance extreme rain in the Iberian Peninsula. The Gulf Stream (GS) front is stronger during the negative NAT phase, increasing the frequency of the atmospheric front and enlarging the rain rate in ARs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Rivers – Bridging Weather, Climate and Society)
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