Search Results (24)

Following a very cold first half of the Arctic stratosphere winter of 2024–2025, the stratospheric polar vortex weakened from late February. The increase in the polar lower stratosphere temperature led to a decrease in the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) type I (NAT) volume from ~80 million km³ to zero. The polar vortex weakening and temperature increase continued in early March, when major sudden stratospheric warming occurred. Although the polar cap total column ozone (TCO) significantly increased during this period, an ozone mini-hole formed over Scandinavia and northwestern Russia, with TCO values as low as 220–240 Dobson units, according to satellite observations and ground-based measurements over St. Petersburg and Moscow on 5–6 March 2025. Chemistry-transport model calculations using MERRA2 reanalysis data were performed to investigate the role of chemical ozone depletion and dynamical processes in the low TCO values in early March. Model experiments show that dynamical processes played a predominant role in the formation of low TCO values, but the role of chemical processes was not negligible. Associated with the TCO anomaly, the difference relative to the standard ozone level in the UV indices over Moscow, St. Petersburg and Helsinki reached up to 60–100%. Full article

Using multiple reanalysis datasets, this study investigates the decadal variability in the relationship between Northeast Pacific Sea surface temperature (SST) and Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO), with a focus on the role of atmospheric dynamics in mediating this connection. A significant decadal shift is identified around the year 2000, characterized by a weakening of the previously strong negative correlation between January–February SST anomalies and February–March ASO. Prior to 2000 (1980–2000), warm SST in the northeastern Pacific suppressed upward planetary wave propagation, resulting in decreased stratospheric wave activity and a weakened Brewer–Dobson circulation. The weakened BD circulation reduced poleward transport of tropical ozone and heat, yielding a colder, ozone-poor polar vortex. The strong relationship enabled skillful seasonal predictability of ASO using SST precursors in a linear regression model. However, post-2000 (2001–2022), the weakened planetary wave response to SST anomalies resulted in a breakdown of this relationship, yielding non-significant predictive skill. The findings highlight the non-stationary nature of ocean-stratosphere coupling and underscore the importance of accounting for such decadal shifts in climate models to improve projections of Arctic ozone recovery and its surface climate impacts. Full article

This study is dedicated to the investigation of the relationship between the wave activity in February and temperature variations in the Arctic lower stratosphere in March. To study this relationship, the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the minimum temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere in March (Tmin) and the amplitude of the planetary wave with zonal number 1 (PW1) in February were calculated. Tmin determines the conditions for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) following the chemical destruction of the ozone layer. The NCEP and ERA5 reanalysis data and the modern and future climate simulations of the Earth system models INM CM5 and SOCOLv4 were employed. It is shown that the maximum significant CC value between Tmin at 70 hPa in the polar region in March and the amplitude of the PW1 in February in the reanalysis data in the lower stratosphere is 0.67 at the pressure level of 200 hPa. The CCs calculated using the model data are characterized by maximum values of ~0.5, also near the same pressure level. Thus, it is demonstrated that the change in the planetary wave activity in the lower extratropical stratosphere in February can be one of the predictors of the Tmin. For further analysis of the dynamic structure in the lower stratosphere, composites of 10 seasons with the lowest and highest Tmin of the Arctic lower stratosphere in March were assembled. For these composites, differences in the vertical distribution and total ozone content, surface temperature, and residual meridional circulation (RMC) were considered, and features of the spatial distribution of wave activity fluxes were investigated. The obtained results may be useful for the development of forecasting of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation, especially for the late winter season, when substantial ozone depletion occurs in some years. Full article

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a crucial role in ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere. In this study, the space-based PSCs record from CALISPO and an offline three-dimensional chemical transport model (SLIMCAT) are used to analyze the PSCs in the Arctic and the Antarctic for the period 2006−2021. Observations indicate that the seasonal evolution of the Antarctic PSC area is similar from year to year. In contrast, the Arctic PSCs show large differences in seasonal variations of coverage and duration in different years. The SLIMCAT simulations effectively capture the seasonal and interannual variations of PSCs. However, the simulated PSC areas are larger than CALIPSO observations, which can be attributed to the relatively high instrumental detection threshold of CALIPSO. SLIMCAT can capture the zonal asymmetry of PSCs in both the Antarctic and Arctic, and it can reproduce a more accurate spatial distribution of PSCs when the PSC coverage area is larger. In addition, accurate simulation of HNO₃ is important for PSC simulation. Because the simulation of denitrification processes is poor in SLIMCAT, which uses the thermodynamic equilibrium PSC scheme, the PSCs modeled by SLIMCAT are located at higher altitudes compared to the observation in the Antarctic, where the denitrification processes are strong. In contrast, for ice PSCs of which HNO₃ is not required in calculations and the Arctic where denitrification is weak, the simulated PSC at different altitudes closely matches the observations. Full article

The results of numerical experiments with a chemistry–climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere are presented to study the sensitivity of the polar stratosphere of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres to sea surface temperature (SST) variability, both as a result of interannual variability associated with the Southern Oscillation, and because of long-term increases in SST under global warming. An analysis of the results of model experiments showed that for both scenarios of SST changes, the response of the polar stratosphere for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is very different. In the Arctic, during the El Niño phase, conditions are created for the polar vortex to become less stable, and in the Antarctic, on the contrary, for it to become more stable, which is expressed in a weakening of the zonal wind in the winter in the Arctic and its increase in the Antarctic, followed by a spring decrease in temperature and concentration of ozone in the Antarctic and their increase in the Arctic. Global warming creates a tendency for the polar vortex to weaken in winter in the Arctic and strengthen it in the Antarctic. As a result, in the Antarctic, the concentration of ozone in the polar stratosphere decreases both in winter (June–August) and, especially, in spring (September–November). Global warming may hinder ozone recovery which is expected as a result of the reduced emissions of ozone-depleting substances. The model results demonstrate the dominant influence of Brewer–Dobson circulation variability on temperature and ozone in the polar stratosphere compared with changes in wave activity, both with changes in SST in the Southern Oscillation and with increases in SST due to global warming. Full article

Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability, mainly driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influences the atmospheric circulation and hence the transport of heat and chemical species in both the troposphere and stratosphere. This paper uses Met Office, ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalysis data to examine the impact of SST variability on the dynamics of the polar stratosphere and ozone layer over the period from 1980 to 2020. Particular attention is paid to studying the differences in the influence of different types of ENSO (East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP)) for the El Niño and La Niña phases. It is shown that during the CP El Niño, the zonal wind weakens more strongly and changes direction more often than during the EP El Niño, and the CP El Niño leads to a more rapid decay of the polar vortex (PV), an increase in stratospheric air temperature and an increase in the concentration and total column ozone than during EP El Niño. For the CP La Niña, the PV is more stable, which often leads to a significant decrease in Arctic ozone. During EP La Niña, powerful sudden stratospheric warming events are often observed, which lead to the destruction of PV and an increase in column ozone. Full article

The Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion event in spring 2020 was the most severe compared with previous years. We retrieved the critical indicator ozone vertical column density (VCD) using zenith scattered light differential optical absorption spectroscopy (ZSL-DOAS) from March 2017 to September 2021 in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, Norway. The average ozone VCD over Ny-Ålesund between 18 March and 18 April 2020 was approximately 274.8 Dobson units (DU), which was only 64.7 ± 0.1% of that recorded in other years (2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021). The daily peak difference was 195.7 DU during this period. The retrieved daily averages of ozone VCDs were compared with satellite observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), a Brewer spectrophotometer, and a Système d’Analyze par Observation Zénithale (SAOZ) spectrometer at Ny-Ålesund. As determined using the empirical cumulative density function, ozone VCDs from the ZSL-DOAS dataset were strongly correlated with data from the GOME-2 and SAOZ at lower and higher values, and ozone VCDs from the Brewer instrument were overestimated. The resulting Pearson correlation coefficients were relatively high at 0.97, 0.87, and 0.91, respectively. In addition, the relative deviations were 2.3%, 3.1%, and 3.5%, respectively. Sounding and ERA5 data indicated that severe ozone depletion occurred between mid-March and mid-April 2020 in the 16–20 km altitude range over Ny-Ålesund, which was strongly associated with the overall persistently low temperatures in the winter of 2019/2020. Using ZSL-DOAS observations, we obtained ozone VCDs and provided evidence for the unprecedented ozone depletion during the Arctic spring of 2020. This is essential for the study of polar ozone changes and their effect on climate change and ecological conditions. Full article

An analysis of the relationship between changes in Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and precipitation in eastern North America (38°–54°N, 65°–87°W; PENA) was performed using observational and reanalysis data coupled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4). We found that March ASO exhibits a strong correlation with PENA in April, indicating that the one-month leading ASO exerts a potentially strong impact on April PENA. Changes in tropospheric circulation over the North Pacific and North America can be influenced by ASO anomalies via stratosphere–troposphere interactions. Increased ASO typically results in the transport of drier, colder air from northwest to eastern North America and suppresses local convective activity by enhancing regional downwelling. These conditions lead to a decrease in regional atmospheric water vapor content (1000–600 hPa). Abnormally high ASO may therefore suppress precipitation, whereas abnormally low ASO serves to enhance precipitation, and the finding is supported by WACCM4 simulations incorporating these ASO anomaly signals. We also present an ASO-based statistical linear model for predicting April PENA. Results confirm that the linear model reproduces April PENA for both training and testing periods, based on March ASO, demonstrating the reliability and stability of this linear model. This study verifies that ASO is a viable predictor for projecting April PENA and thus improving forecasts of regional seasonal precipitation. Full article

The Arctic stratosphere winter season of 2021–2022 was characterized by a stable, cold stratospheric polar vortex with a volume of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) close to the maximum values since 1980, before the beginning of minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the late February and early March and major SSW on 20 March. Analysis of dynamical processes of the Arctic stratosphere using reanalysis data indicates that the main reasons for the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex in January–February are the minimum propagation of planetary wave activity from the troposphere to the stratosphere over the past 40 years and its reflection in the upper stratosphere–lower mesosphere in the second half of January. The first minor SSW was limited to the upper polar stratosphere, whereas the second one propagated to the middle and lower stratosphere and led to the disappearance of the PSC, which prevented significant ozone depletion. Both minor and major SSW events led to a weakening of the residual meridional circulation in the upper Arctic stratosphere and its intensification in the middle and lower stratosphere, which contributed to additional warming of the subpolar region and weakening of the polar vortex. Full article

Using a stratosphere-resolving general circulation model, the relative effects of stratospheric ozone and greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase on the temperature and circulation in the Arctic stratosphere are examined. Results show that stratospheric ozone or GHGs increase alone could result in a cooling and strengthening extratropical stratosphere during February, March and April. However, the contribution of stratospheric ozone increases alone on the cooling and strengthening Arctic stratosphere is approximately 2 fold that of the GHGs increase alone. Model simulations suggested that the larger responses of the Arctic stratosphere to the ozone increase alone are closely related to the wave fluxes in the stratosphere, rather than the wave activity in the stratosphere. In response to the ozone increase, the vertical propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere into the mid-latitude stratosphere weakens, mainly contributed by its wavenumber-1 component. The impeded planetary waves tend to result from the larger zonal wind shear and vertical gradient of the buoyancy frequency. The magnitudes of anomalies in the zonal wind shear and buoyancy frequency in response to GHGs increase alone are smaller than in response to the ozone increase, which is in accordance with the larger contribution of stratospheric ozone to the temperature and circulation in the Arctic stratosphere. Full article

The stratospheric polar vortex is a large-scale cyclonic circulation that forms in a cold air mass in the polar region and extends from the middle troposphere to the stratosphere. The polar vortex is implicated in a variety of atmospheric processes, such as the formation of ozone holes, the North Atlantic and the Arctic Oscillations, variations in extratropical cyclone tracks, etc. The results presented in this work show that the vortex plays an important part in the mechanism of solar activity influence on lower atmosphere circulation, with variations in the vortex intensity being responsible for temporal variability in the correlation links observed between atmospheric characteristics and solar activity phenomena. In turn, the location of the vortex is favorable for the influence of ionization changes associated with charged particle fluxes (cosmic rays, auroral and radiation belt electrons) that affect the chemical composition and temperature regime of the polar atmosphere as well as its electric properties and cloudiness state. In this work, recent results concerning solar activity effects on the state of the stratospheric polar vortex as well as its role in solar–atmospheric links are discussed. Full article

The purpose of this work is to study Rossby wave parameters in total ozone over the Arctic in 2000–2021. We consider the averages in the January–March period, when stratospheric trace gases (including ozone) in sudden stratospheric warming events are strongly disturbed by planetary waves. To characterize the wave parameters, we analyzed ozone data at the latitudes of 50°N (the sub-vortex area), 60°N (the polar vortex edge) and 70°N (inner region of the polar vortex). Total ozone column (TOC) measurements over a 22-year time interval were used from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer/Earth Probe and Ozone Mapping Instrument/Aura satellite observations. The TOC zonal distribution and variations in the Fourier spectral components with zonal wave numbers m = 1–5 are presented. The daily and interannual variations in TOC, amplitudes and phases of the spectral wave components, as well as linear trends in the amplitudes of the dominant quasi-stationary wave 1 (QSW1), are discussed. The positive TOC peaks inside the vortex in 2010 and 2018 alternate with negative ones in 2011 and 2020. The extremely low TOC at 70°N in 2020 corresponds to severe depletion of stratospheric ozone over the Arctic in strong vortex conditions due to anomalously low planetary wave activity and a high positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Interannual TOC variations in the sub-vortex region at 50°N are accompanied by a negative trend of −4.8 Dobson Units per decade in the QSW1 amplitude, statistically significant at 90% confidence level, while the trend is statistically insignificant in the vortex edge region and inside the vortex due to the increased variability in TOC and QSW1. The processes associated with quasi-circumpolar migration and quasi-stationary oscillation of the wave-1 phase depending on the polar vortex strength in 2020 and 2021 are discussed. Full article

Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values. Full article

Dynamical processes and changes in the ozone layer in the Arctic stratosphere during the winter of 2019–2020 were analyzed using numerical experiments with a chemistry-transport model (CTM) and reanalysis data. The results of numerical calculations using CTM with Dynamic parameters specified from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data, carried out according to several scenarios of accounting for the chemical destruction of ozone, demonstrated that both Dynamic and chemical processes contribute significantly to ozone changes over the selected World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre network stations, both in the Eastern and in the Western hemispheres. Based on numerical experiments with the CTM, the specific Dynamic conditions of winter–spring 2019–2020 described a decrease in ozone up to 100 Dobson Units (DU) in the Eastern Hemisphere and over 150 DU in the Western Hemisphere. In this case, the photochemical destruction of ozone in both the Western and Eastern Hemispheres at a maximum was about 50 DU with peaks in April in the Eastern Hemisphere and in March and April in the Western Hemisphere. Heterogeneous activation of halogen gases on the surface of polar stratospheric clouds, on the one hand, led to a sharp increase in the destruction of ozone in chlorine and bromine catalytic cycles, and, on the other hand, decreased its destruction in nitrogen catalytic cycles. Analysis of wave activity using 3D Plumb fluxes showed that the enhancement of upward wave activity propagation in the middle of March over the Gulf of Alaska was observed during the development stage of the minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that led to displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex to the north of Canada and decrease of polar stratospheric clouds’ volume. Full article

Quantifying spatiotemporal polar ozone changes can promote our understanding of global stratospheric ozone depletion, polar ozone-related chemical processes, and atmospheric dynamics. By means of ground-level measurements, satellite observations, and re-analyzed meteorology, the global spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the total column ozone (TCO) and ozone profile can be quantitatively described. In this study, we evaluated the ozone datasets from CrIS/NOAA20, AIRS/Aqua, and ERA5/ECWMF for their performance in polar regions in 2020, along with the in situ observations of the Dobson, Brewer, and ozonesonde instruments, which are regarded as benchmarks. The results showed that the ERA5 reanalysis ozone field had good consistency with the ground observations (R > 0.95) and indicated whether the TCO or ozone profile was less affected by the site location. In contrast, both CrIS and AIRS could capture the ozone loss process resulting from the Antarctic/Arctic ozone hole at a monthly scale, but their ability to characterize the Arctic ozone hole was weaker than in the Antarctic. Specifically, the TCO values derived from AIRS were apparently higher in March 2020 than those of ERA5, which made it difficult to assess the area and depth of the ozone hole during this period. Moreover, the pattern of CrIS TCO was abnormal and tended to deviate from the pattern that characterized ERA5 and AIRS at the Alert site during the Arctic ozone loss process in 2020, which demonstrates that CrIS ozone products have limited applicability at this ground site. Furthermore, the validation of the ozone profile shows that AIRS and CrIS do not have good vertical representation in the polar regions and are not able to characterize the location and depth of ozone depletion. Overall, the results reveal the shortcomings of the ozone profiles derived from AIRS and CrIS observations and the reliability of the ERA5 reanalysis ozone field in polar applications. A more suitable prior method and detection sensitivity improvement on CrIS and AIRS ozone products would improve their reliability and applicability in polar regions. Full article