Search for Articles:
Title / Keyword
Author / Affiliation / Email
Journal
Article Type
 
 
Advanced Search
 
Section
Special Issue
Volume
Issue
Number
Page
 
6.0
3.0
Journals
Water
Special Issues
Advances in the Relationship Between Climate Change and Runoff in...
water-logo
Submit to Special Issue Submit Abstract to Special Issue Review for Water Propose a Special Issue

Journal Menu

► Journal Menu

Journal Browser

► Journal Browser
share announcement

Advances in the Relationship Between Climate Change and Runoff in Watershed

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 November 2026 | Viewed by 2140

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Laboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, 44403 Kaunas, Lithuania
Interests: hydrological modeling; climate change; environmental flow; uncertainty; water resources management
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Serhii Nazarenko

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor Assistant
Laboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, 44403 Kaunas, Lithuania
Interests: hydrological modeling; climate change; drought indices; uncertainty; low flow; risk assessment

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) states that in many regions, changes in precipitation and melting of snow and ice are altering hydrological systems and affecting the quantity and quality of water resources. Future projections of river runoff are primarily influenced by two main climate indices: precipitation and air temperature. From now on, representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, global climate models (GCMs), and downscaling methods (SD) are being used to determine climate projections and future changes in the river hydrological regime. The different approaches to preparing climate input data and to hydrological modeling of river runoff have affected the variability of runoff projections in the river catchments. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with selected sources (RCP, GCM, SD, hydrological model parameters, etc.) is necessary for more accurate projections of future runoff changes. Currently, there is a particular lack of research on river runoff projection assessment in ungauged river basins. 

Potential topics include, but are not limited to the following: 

  • Relationship between climate and runoff projections in different river catchments;
  • Variability of river runoff projections in time and space for different hydrological regions;
  • Evaluation of uncertainty of runoff projections under a future climate;
  • Assessment of river runoff projections in the ungauged river catchments;
  • Error evaluation in river runoff projections under various climate input data.

Dr. Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė
Guest Editor

Dr. Serhii Nazarenko
Guest Editor Assistant

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 250 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for assessment.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • hydrological modeling
  • climate scenarios
  • global models
  • downscaling
  • runoff projections
  • uncertainty
  • ungauged rivers
  • reanalysis data

Benefits of Publishing in a Special Issue

  • Ease of navigation: Grouping papers by topic helps scholars navigate broad scope journals more efficiently.
  • Greater discoverability: Special Issues support the reach and impact of scientific research. Articles in Special Issues are more discoverable and cited more frequently.
  • Expansion of research network: Special Issues facilitate connections among authors, fostering scientific collaborations.
  • External promotion: Articles in Special Issues are often promoted through the journal's social media, increasing their visibility.
  • Reprint: MDPI Books provides the opportunity to republish successful Special Issues in book format, both online and in print.

Further information on MDPI's Special Issue policies can be found here.

Published Papers (3 papers)

Download All Papers
Order results
Result details
Show export options expand_more Show export options expand_less
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:

Research

36 pages, 10282 KB  
Article
Transformation of River Runoff and Sensitivity of Hydrological Systems in the Arid Zone of Kazakhstan in the Context of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns
by Medeu Akhmetkal, Sayat Alimkulov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, Elmira Talipova, Lyazzat Birimbayeva, Kairat Kulebayev and Oirat Alzhanov
Water 2026, 18(8), 940; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18080940 - 14 Apr 2026
Viewed by 398
Abstract
This study investigates the transformation of river runoff and its sensitivity to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Zhaiyk–Caspian water management basin during the period of 1951–2023. The analysis is based on hydrometeorological observations data, the Vangengeim–Girs classification of macro-circulation patterns, and [...] Read more.
This study investigates the transformation of river runoff and its sensitivity to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Zhaiyk–Caspian water management basin during the period of 1951–2023. The analysis is based on hydrometeorological observations data, the Vangengeim–Girs classification of macro-circulation patterns, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Correlation analysis, the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and the Pettitt test were applied to identify trends, structural shifts, and the spatial coherence of hydroclimatic changes. The results show that interannual variability in river runoff is characterized by a degree of spatial coherence, with correlation coefficients between annual streamflow records at most gauging stations reaching up to 0.95. It is demonstrated that the most pronounced changes in the hydrological regime occur during the cold season and are expressed in a statistically significant increase in winter runoff, while no significant long-term trend in annual runoff is observed. Structural shifts in winter runoff are predominantly associated with the late 1990s, whereas changes in the temperature regime are detected earlier and exhibit spatial coherence. The findings indicate that the contemporary transformation of river runoff is primarily driven by rising air temperatures and the associated intra-annual redistribution of flow. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in the Relationship Between Climate Change and Runoff in Watershed)
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

27 pages, 8482 KB  
Article
Assessment of Simulated Meteorological Data Applicability for Hydrological Modelling in Low Land River Catchments
by Serhii Nazarenko, Diana Meilutytė-Lukauskienė, Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė and Darius Jakimavičius
Water 2026, 18(4), 454; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18040454 - 9 Feb 2026
Viewed by 750
Abstract
Hydrological modelling in lowland catchments is often constrained by flat terrain and sparce meteorological station networks, which limits the accuracy of spatial interpolation of precipitation and temperature. In these conditions, the nearest available station may be located tens of kilometres away, making interpolated [...] Read more.
Hydrological modelling in lowland catchments is often constrained by flat terrain and sparce meteorological station networks, which limits the accuracy of spatial interpolation of precipitation and temperature. In these conditions, the nearest available station may be located tens of kilometres away, making interpolated meteorological inputs highly uncertain and prone to systematic bias. This study aims to improve interpolated meteorological data for hydrological applications by developing and evaluating a practical bias correction approach suitable for low-relief regions with insufficient station density. Long-term temperatures and precipitation records from 18 meteorological stations in Lithuania (1961–2020) were used as reference data. Meteorological fields were reconstructed using Ordinary Kriging and Spline interpolation and evaluated against observations at monthly and daily time scales using correlation (r), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Probability of Detection (POD) for precipitation. Bias correction was applied to interpolated datasets using inverse distance weighting (IDW) based on one to four neighbouring stations, reflecting typical distances of 50–70 km between observation sites. The results show that while the interpolation method strongly influences precipitation accuracy, bias correction substantially reduces systematic errors without altering temporal structure. The most robust improvements were obtained using two to three neighbouring stations and an IDW power parameter of one, particularly under flat terrain conditions. When applied as input to the HBV rainfall–runoff model for three representative lowland catchments, bias-corrected interpolated meteorological data consistently improved runoff simulations, bringing model performance closer to that achieved using historical station observations. The findings demonstrate that targeted bias correction is an effective and computationally simple strategy for improving interpolated meteorological data in data-sparse lowland regions. The proposed approach provides practical guidance for hydrological modelling where dense observation networks are unavailable and reliance on interpolation is unavoidable. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in the Relationship Between Climate Change and Runoff in Watershed)
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

18 pages, 8354 KB  
Article
Assessment of Water Balance and Future Runoff in the Nitra River Basin, Slovakia
by Pavla Pekárová, Igor Leščešen, Ján Pekár, Zbyněk Bajtek, Veronika Bačová Mitková and Dana Halmová
Water 2026, 18(2), 208; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18020208 - 13 Jan 2026
Viewed by 625
Abstract
This study integrates 90 years of hydrometeorological observations (1930/31–2019/20) with end-century projections (2080–2099) to evaluate climate-driven changes in the water balance of the Nitra River basin (2094 km2), Slovakia. Despite a modest 2–3% increase in annual precipitation from 1930/31–1959/60 to 1990/91–2019/20, [...] Read more.
This study integrates 90 years of hydrometeorological observations (1930/31–2019/20) with end-century projections (2080–2099) to evaluate climate-driven changes in the water balance of the Nitra River basin (2094 km2), Slovakia. Despite a modest 2–3% increase in annual precipitation from 1930/31–1959/60 to 1990/91–2019/20, mean annual runoff declined from 229 mm to 201 mm (≈−12%), primarily due to enhanced evapotranspiration stemming from a +1.08 °C basin-wide temperature increase. An empirical regression from 90 hydrological years shows that +100 mm in precipitation boosts runoff by ≈41 mm, while +1 °C in temperature reduces it by ≈13 mm. The BILAN monthly water balance model was calibrated for 1930/31–2019/20 to decompose runoff components. Over the 90-year period, the modeled annual runoff averaged 222 mm, comprising a 112 mm baseflow (50.4%), a 91 mm interflow (41.0%), and a 19 mm direct runoff (8.6%), underscoring the key role of groundwater and subsurface flows in sustaining streamflow. In the second part of our study, the monthly water balance model BILAN was recalibrated for 1995–2014 to simulate future runoff under three CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Under the sustainability pathway SSP1-1.9 (+0.88 °C; +1.1% precipitation), annual runoff decreases by 8.9%. The middle-of-the-road scenario SSP2-4.5 (+2.6 °C; +3.1% precipitation) projects a 17.5% decline in annual runoff, with particularly severe reductions in autumn months (September −32.3%, October −35.8%, December −40.4%). The high-emission pathway SSP5-8.5 (+5.1 °C; +0.4% precipitation) yields the most dramatic impact with a 35.2% decrease in annual runoff and summer deficits exceeding 45%. These results underline the extreme sensitivity of a mid-sized Central European basin to temperature-driven evapotranspiration and the critical importance of emission mitigation, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies, including new storage infrastructure to address both winter floods and intensifying summer droughts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in the Relationship Between Climate Change and Runoff in Watershed)
►▼ Show Figures

Graphical abstract

Show export options expand_more Show export options expand_less
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:
 
Displaying articles 1-3
Back to TopTop