Tropical Cyclone Future Projections

A special issue of Oceans (ISSN 2673-1924).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 April 2021) | Viewed by 29025

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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
Interests: tropical cyclones; climate dynamics; future projections; predictions and predictability; numerical modelling
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Dear Colleagues,

The increasing frequency of tropical-cyclone damage has attracted public interest regarding the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone activity. Although the global mean temperature has been rising since the 20th century, the detection and attribution of any climate change in tropical cyclone activity remains uncertain due to the limited length of reliable observations. A number of previous studies reported projected future changes in tropical cyclone frequency. However, there still remains substantial uncertainty regarding future changes in tropical cyclone activity and its impact.

Publications in the Special Issue will aim to minimize uncertainty in the possible future changes in tropical cyclone activity. Individual papers solicited for this Special Issue shall focus on the following topics:

  1. Quantifying change in the characteristics of tropical cyclones in a warmer climate;
  2. Observed climate change in tropical cyclone activity;
  3. Assessing tropical cyclone risks, mitigations, and adaptations for the future climate change;
  4. Assessing potential future changes in impact tropical cyclones in oceans (e.g., marine biochemistry; marine ecosystem; storm surges; sea level rise);
  5. Theoretical or experimental study related to tropical cyclone climate.

Dr. Hiroyuki Murakami
Guest Editor

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Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

26 pages, 7520 KiB  
Article
Response of Tropical Cyclone Frequency to Sea Surface Temperatures Using Aqua-Planet Simulations
by Pavan Harika Raavi and Kevin J. E. Walsh
Oceans 2021, 2(4), 785-810; https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2040045 - 1 Dec 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2837
Abstract
The present study investigates the effect of increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency using the high-resolution Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) model. We examine environmental conditions leading to changes in TC frequency in aqua-planet global climate model [...] Read more.
The present study investigates the effect of increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency using the high-resolution Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) model. We examine environmental conditions leading to changes in TC frequency in aqua-planet global climate model simulations with globally uniform sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Two different TC tracking schemes are used. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) scheme (a resolution-dependent scheme) detects TCs that resemble observed storms, while the Okubo–Weiss zeta parameter (OWZP) tracking scheme (a resolution-independent scheme) detects the locations within “marsupial pouches” that are favorable for TC formation. Both schemes indicate a decrease in the global mean TC frequency with increased saturation deficit and static stability of the atmosphere. The OWZP scheme shows a poleward shift in the genesis locations with rising temperatures, due to lower vertical wind shear. We also observe an overall decrease in the formation of tropical depressions (TDs) with increased temperatures, both for those that develop into TCs and non-developing cases. The environmental variations at the time of TD genesis between the developing and the non-developing tropical depressions identify the Okubo–Weiss (OW) parameter and omega (vertical mass flux) as significant influencing variables. Initial vortices with lower vorticity or with weaker upward mass flux do not develop into TCs due to environments with higher saturation deficit and stronger static stability of the atmosphere. The latitudinal variations in the large-scale environmental conditions account for the latitudinal differences in the TC frequency in the OWZP scheme. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclone Future Projections)
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12 pages, 2930 KiB  
Article
Simulated Changes in Tropical Cyclone Size, Accumulated Cyclone Energy and Power Dissipation Index in a Warmer Climate
by Michael Wehner
Oceans 2021, 2(4), 688-699; https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2040039 - 11 Oct 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3937
Abstract
Detection, attribution and projection of changes in tropical cyclone intensity statistics are made difficult from the potentially decreasing overall storm frequency combined with increases in the peak winds of the most intense storms as the climate warms. Multi-decadal simulations of stabilized climate scenarios [...] Read more.
Detection, attribution and projection of changes in tropical cyclone intensity statistics are made difficult from the potentially decreasing overall storm frequency combined with increases in the peak winds of the most intense storms as the climate warms. Multi-decadal simulations of stabilized climate scenarios from a high-resolution tropical cyclone permitting atmospheric general circulation model are used to examine simulated global changes from warmer temperatures, if any, in estimates of tropical cyclone size, accumulated cyclonic energy and power dissipation index. Changes in these metrics are found to be complicated functions of storm categorization and global averages of them are unlikely to easily reveal the impact of climate change on future tropical cyclone intensity statistics. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclone Future Projections)
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27 pages, 8085 KiB  
Article
Demonstration of the Temporal Evolution of Tropical Cyclone “Phailin” Using Gray-Zone Simulations and Decadal Variability of Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal in a Warming Climate
by Prabodha Kumar Pradhan, Vinay Kumar, Sunilkumar Khadgarai, S. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, Tushar Sinha, Vijaya Kumari Kattamanchi and Sandeep Pattnaik
Oceans 2021, 2(3), 648-674; https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2030037 - 10 Sep 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3529
Abstract
The intensity and frequency variability of cyclones in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) have been amplified over the last few decades. The number of very severe cyclonic storms (VSCSs) over the North Indian Ocean has increased over recent decades. “Phailin”, an extreme severe [...] Read more.
The intensity and frequency variability of cyclones in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) have been amplified over the last few decades. The number of very severe cyclonic storms (VSCSs) over the North Indian Ocean has increased over recent decades. “Phailin”, an extreme severe cyclonic storm (ESCS), occurred during 8–13 October 2013 over the Bay of Bengal and made landfall near the Gopalpur coast of Odisha at 12 UTC on 12 October. It caused severe damage here, as well as in the coastal Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and adjoining regions due to strong wind gusts (~115 knot/h), heavy precipitation, and devastating storm surges. The fidelity of the WRF model in simulating the track and intensity of tropical cyclones depends on different cloud microphysical parameterization schemes. Thus, four sensitivity simulations were conducted for Phailin using double-moment and single-moment microphysical (MP) parameterization schemes. The experiments were conducted to quantify and characterize the performance of such MP schemes for Phailin. The simulations were performed by the advanced weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The model has two interactive domains covering the entire Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Odisha on 25 km and 8.333 km resolutions. Milbrandt–Yau (MY) double-moment and WRF single-moment microphysical schemes, with 6, 5, and 3 classes of hydrometeors, i.e., WSM6, WSM5, and WSM3, were used for the simulation. Experiments for Phailin were conducted for 126 h, starting from 00 UTC 08 October to 06 UTC 13 October 2013. It was found that the track, intensity, and structure of Phailin are highly sensitive to the different microphysical parameterization schemes. Further, the precipitation and cloud distribution were studied during the ESCS stage of Phailin. The microphysics schemes (MY, WSM3, WSM5, WSM6), along with Grell–Devenyi ensemble convection scheme predicted landfall of Phailin over the Odisha coast with significant track errors. Supply of moisture remains a more crucial component than SST and wind shear for rapid intensification of the Phailin 12 h before landfall over the Bay of Bengal. Finally, the comparison of cyclone formation between two decades 2001–2010 and 2011–2020 over the Bay of Bengal inferred that the increased numbers of VSCS are attributed to the supply of abundant moisture at low levels in the recent decade 2011–2020. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclone Future Projections)
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19 pages, 4187 KiB  
Article
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America
by Christian Dominguez, James M. Done and Cindy L. Bruyère
Oceans 2021, 2(2), 429-447; https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2020024 - 10 Jun 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 4625
Abstract
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative [...] Read more.
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclone Future Projections)
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14 pages, 3660 KiB  
Article
Future Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Environment in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations
by Hironori Fudeyasu, Kohei Yoshida and Ryuji Yoshida
Oceans 2020, 1(4), 355-368; https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans1040024 - 18 Dec 2020
Viewed by 2766
Abstract
This study applied the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) environment factors to project future changes in the frequency and characteristics of TCs over the western North Pacific. We examined current and future [...] Read more.
This study applied the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) environment factors to project future changes in the frequency and characteristics of TCs over the western North Pacific. We examined current and future TCG environmental conditions in terms of the contribution of five factors: shear line (SL), confluence region (CR), monsoon gyre, easterly wave (EW), and Rossby wave energy dispersion from a preexisting TC (PTC). Among summer and autumn TCs, the contributions of SL and EW to future TCG increased by about 4% and 1%, respectively, whereas those of CR and PTC decreased by the same amounts. In future climate projections, the average lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of TCs associated with EW (EW-TCs) was significantly higher than those of TCs associated with other factors except PTC. At higher sea surface temperatures and wetter conditions, higher lower-tropospheric relative vorticity was related to increases in the development rate of EW-TCs. Findings of this study suggest that increases in the average LMI of all future TCs were caused by large contributions from the average LMI of future EW-TCs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclone Future Projections)
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15 pages, 4771 KiB  
Article
Statistical Decomposition of the Recent Increase in the Intensity of Tropical Storms
by Stephen Jewson and Nicholas Lewis
Oceans 2020, 1(4), 311-325; https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans1040021 - 11 Dec 2020
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2509
Abstract
In a recent paper, Kossin et al. showed that during the period from 1979 to 2017, there was a statistically significant increase in the ratio of category 3–5 to category 1–5 tropical storm fixes in the ADT-HURSAT satellite dataset of tropical cyclone observations. [...] Read more.
In a recent paper, Kossin et al. showed that during the period from 1979 to 2017, there was a statistically significant increase in the ratio of category 3–5 to category 1–5 tropical storm fixes in the ADT-HURSAT satellite dataset of tropical cyclone observations. The sign of this increase is consistent with previously developed theory and modelling results for how tropical cyclones may change due to climate change. However, without further analysis, it is difficult to understand what the implications of this increase might be for present day tropical cyclone risk. It is also difficult to understand how tropical cyclone risk models might be adjusted to reflect this increase, since this ratio is not typically directly represented in such models. Our goal is therefore to understand the drivers for this increase in terms of changes in the numbers of fixes of different categories of storms in different basins, which are quantities that are more directly related to tropical cyclone risk and risk modelling. We use both heuristic and quantitative methods. We find that the increase in the ratio is mainly driven by a decrease in the denominator (the number of category 1–5 fixes) and to a small extent by a slight increase in the numerator (the number of category 3–5 fixes). The decrease in the denominator is mostly driven by a statistically significant reduction in the number of category 1 fixes outside the North Atlantic. The slight increase in the numerator is mostly driven by a statistically significant increase in the number of category 3–4 fixes in the North Atlantic. Based on these results, we discuss different ways in which the increase in the ratio could be represented in risk models. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclone Future Projections)
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