Response of Tropical Cyclone Frequency to Sea Surface Temperatures Using Aqua-Planet Simulations
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
- absolute vorticity at 850 hPa higher than a threshold of 1 × 10−5 s−1;
- mean wind speed at 850 hPa within a 700 km box region around the detected center of the storm should be higher than at 300 hPa by at least 3 m s−1;
- 10 m wind speed should be greater than the resolution-dependent threshold of 16.5 m s−1 [59] for the 40 km resolution model used here. For a storm to be declared a TC, the minimum duration of satisfying the above thresholds is 48 h.
- identification of the grid points that satisfy the initial thresholds (Table S1 of the supporting information) and merging nearby grid points into a single clump; and
- tracking these clumps forward in time until there exists no circulation by using the storm position determined by the 700 hPa steering wind. These clump positions along the track are verified by specified core thresholds (Table S1) and are indicated by True (satisfies the thresholds) and False (does not satisfy the thresholds). A particular track is considered as a TC if it satisfies the conditions for a period of 48 h, that is five consecutive True positions (Figure S1). The fifth True position is considered as the TC genesis location (Bell et al., 2018 [61]). The time interval of the data is 12 h.
3. Results
3.1. Mean Annual Frequency
3.2. Geographical Distribution of TC Genesis Frequency
3.3. TC Lifetime and Tracks
3.4. Changes in the Large-Scale Environmental Conditions for the Constant SST Experiments
3.5. Classification of the TCs in the SST25 and SST30 Experiments
3.6. Developing Versus Non-Developing Tropical Depressions
3.7. Changes in the Large-Scale Environmental Conditions for Both Developing and Non-Developing Circulations
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
- (i)
- (ii)
- Although the TCs within the ACCESS model have weaker intensity than in observations, we observe an increase in the frequency of the intense storms with increasing SSTs using both tracking schemes (Figure 1).
- (iii)
- We observe a reduction in the global mean detections of both developing (TCs) and non-developing tropical depressions with increasing SSTs (Table 1), suggesting that there may be a reduction in the frequency of the weaker storms in a future climate.
- (iv)
- At higher latitudes, which have higher stability compared to the lower latitudes in the SST30 experiment (Figure 7), we notice that the individual TC circulations have higher values of OW and lower values of omega (Figure 8). This result suggests that under more stable atmospheric conditions with increased values of saturation deficit, those initial vortices that have higher strength are more likely to develop into TCs compared to low-strength vortices.
- (v)
- In the OWZP scheme, the TC formation decreases a little in the 0–25º latitude band (Figure 4a), accompanied by lower values of low-level RH, higher omega (i.e., lower values of upward mass flux), higher saturation deficit, and higher atmospheric stability with increasing temperatures (Figure 7 and Figure 8). This result is consistent with earlier hypotheses relating TC formation to reduced upward mass flux and increased saturation deficit. This indicates that in the lower latitudes under increased SSTs, the increased stability of the atmosphere with increasing saturation deficit and reduced upward mass flux led to a decrease in the TC frequency.
- (vi)
- (vii)
- The low-level OW parameter and 500 hPa omega act as significant influencing variables leading to the development of an initial vortex to a TC. The non-developing cases have significantly lower values of OW and upward mass flux (increased omega) compared to the developing cases (Figure 11).
- (viii)
- Overall, the latitudinal variations in the large-scale environmental conditions account for the latitudinal differences in the TC frequency in the OWZP scheme.
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
C4.5 Classification Algorithm
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Experiment | OWZP Scheme (TC) | CSIRO Scheme (TC) | OWZP (Greater than 10 m/s) | OWZP Scheme (TDs) | Non-Developing Cases (ND) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SST25 | 3218 | 2277 | 2583 | 5007 | 1789 |
SST27.5 | 2929 | 1808 | 2286 | 4449 | 1520 |
SST30 | 2923 | 1586 | 2197 | 4463 | 1540 |
SST25 and SST30 (0–25) |
1. if RH > 65.43 then TC forms in SST25 2. if RH ≤ 65.43 and VWS ≤ 5.7 then TC forms in SST30 |
SST25 and SST30 (25–40) |
1. if RH > 67 then TC forms in SST25 2. RH ≤ 67 and 10 < OW ≤ 70 then TC forms in SST30 3. if RH ≤ 67, OW > 70, and RH > 63 then TC forms in SST25 4. RH ≤ 67, OW > 70, RH < 63, and VWS < 6 then TC forms in SST30 |
SST25 and SST30 (40–60) |
1. if OW > 568 then TC forms in SST30 2. if OW < 568, VWS < 4.3 then TC forms in SST25 3. if OW < 568, VWS >4.3, and RH > 66 then TC forms in SST25 4. if OW < 568, VWS >4.3, RH < 66, and OW > 353 then TC forms in SST30 |
SST25 and SST30 (60–90) |
1. if WIND > 18 then TC forms in SST30 2. if WIND ≤ 18 then VWS ≤ 2.1 then TC forms in SST25 3. if WIND ≤ 18, VWS > 2.1, and VWS ≤ 6.5 then TC forms in SST25 4. if WIND ≤ 18, 6.5 < VWS ≤ 12 then TC forms in SST30 |
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Raavi, P.H.; Walsh, K.J.E. Response of Tropical Cyclone Frequency to Sea Surface Temperatures Using Aqua-Planet Simulations. Oceans 2021, 2, 785-810. https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2040045
Raavi PH, Walsh KJE. Response of Tropical Cyclone Frequency to Sea Surface Temperatures Using Aqua-Planet Simulations. Oceans. 2021; 2(4):785-810. https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2040045
Chicago/Turabian StyleRaavi, Pavan Harika, and Kevin J. E. Walsh. 2021. "Response of Tropical Cyclone Frequency to Sea Surface Temperatures Using Aqua-Planet Simulations" Oceans 2, no. 4: 785-810. https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2040045