Modeling Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Development

A special issue of Land (ISSN 2073-445X). This special issue belongs to the section "Land Planning and Landscape Architecture".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 April 2026 | Viewed by 2968

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, School of Landscape Architecture and Planning, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Interests: spatial econometrics; urban simulation; spatio-temporal modeling; urban analyrics; machine learning

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Human activities and natural events have influenced both rural and urban areas, resulting in irreversible changes, such as the transformation of agricultural lands into residential areas. The extraction of fertile soil from the ground renders the land unsuitable for future agricultural use. Such irreversible changes disrupt preserving and maintaining the ecosystem and resources. Long-term investments, such as infrastructure and public services, are planned based on land development dynamics. However, miscalculations in these investments can lead to significant financial crises in municipal budgets and a reduction in the quality of life. Therefore, it is crucial for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to understand the influential factors causing changes in land activities and make realistic predictions. Over the recent five decades, researchers have developed mathematical models to represent the dynamics of land development. They have used stochastic and deterministic models to mimic complex land dynamics that lead to changes in urban and rural areas. In recent years, many researchers have revealed that the spatio-temporal dynamics of land development provide vital information about human activities. However, modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics of land development poses methodological and computational challenges.

The goal of this Special Issue is to collect papers (original research articles and review papers) to provide insights into spatio-temporal land development dynamics.

This Special Issue will welcome manuscripts that link the following themes:

  • Incorporating spatial and temporal dependencies in modeling;
  • Accounting for complex non-linear relationships in land development dynamics;
  • Addressing the computational feasibility of spatially explicit modeling frameworks;
  • Introducing hybrid models combining statistical, simulation-based, machine learning, and deep learning methods;
  • Improving our understanding of spatial and temporal dynamics in land development;
  • Introducing urban development prediction applications.

We look forward to receiving your original research articles and reviews.

Dr. Emre Tepe
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • spatio-temporal modeling
  • urban growth
  • land use changes
  • spillover effects
  • marginal effects
  • spatial dependencies
  • machine learning
  • urban simulation

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

19 pages, 3220 KB  
Article
Reconstruction of Cultivated Land Dynamics in the Yellow River Delta Basin Since 1855
by Lin Lou, Yu Ye and Yuting Liu
Land 2025, 14(9), 1826; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14091826 - 7 Sep 2025
Viewed by 1360
Abstract
The Yellow River Delta region is not only a concentrated area of human activities in coastal zones, but also a zone strongly influenced by regional environmental changes, where land cover changes are significantly affected by natural factors. Current historical LUCC datasets overlook the [...] Read more.
The Yellow River Delta region is not only a concentrated area of human activities in coastal zones, but also a zone strongly influenced by regional environmental changes, where land cover changes are significantly affected by natural factors. Current historical LUCC datasets overlook the importance of partitioning to obtain accurate information on the potential maximum distribution range, which may lead to uncertainties in climate and environmental predictions. This study aims to reconstruct historical cropland changes in the Yellow River Delta via a region-adapted allocation model, supporting improved LUCC data accuracy and related research. Based on historical river course, settlement, and cropland survey data, this study identifies natural factors using historical settlement density through correlation analysis. Subsequently, a reclamation suitability model conforming to regional characteristics was constructed, and it obtains the cropland changes in the Yellow River Delta Basin at a spatial resolution of 0.5′ × 0.5′ over five time periods since 1855. The research indicates the following: (1) Through the method of analyzing the correlation between historical settlement density and natural factors, it is found that elevation (−), soil pH (+), soil organic carbon density (−), and NDVI (+) are the primary natural factors influencing the distribution of farmland in the Yellow River Delta. (2) The amount of farmland in the Yellow River Delta increased initially and then decreased after 1885; the average reclamation rate increased from 5.65%, peaked at 23.46% in the early 20th century, and then fell back to 7.68%. Spatially, the reclamation area expanded from scattered local areas along the Yellow River towards the sea, with a distinct coastal distribution. (3) Evaluation through absolute difference analysis shows that, compared with the HYDE 3.2 data, our reconstruction reflects the impacts of coastal changes, river distribution, and regional policy history on the allocation results. Based on the findings of this study, relevant issues can be improved from two aspects: first, by correlating settlement density with natural factors to identify key regional natural factors, which can then be applied to the update of LUCC data in small spatial units and similar regions to enhance data accuracy; second, by referring to the historical laws of cropland reclamation and suitability conditions, to optimize the current land planning of the Yellow River Delta and balance cropland utilization with ecological protection. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Development)
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