Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

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6196 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Bias and Efficiency Tradeoffs in the Selection of Storm Suites Used to Estimate Flood Risk

by Jordan R. Fischbach, David R. Johnson and Kenneth Kuhn

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse4010010 - 15 Feb 2016

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 4679

Modern joint probability methods for estimating storm surge or flood statistics are based on statistical aggregation of many hydrodynamic simulations that can be computationally expensive. Flood risk assessments that consider changing future conditions due to sea level rise or other drivers often require [...] Read more.

Modern joint probability methods for estimating storm surge or flood statistics are based on statistical aggregation of many hydrodynamic simulations that can be computationally expensive. Flood risk assessments that consider changing future conditions due to sea level rise or other drivers often require each storm to be run under a range of uncertain scenarios. Evaluating different flood risk mitigation measures, such as levees and floodwalls, in these future scenarios can further increase the computational cost. This study uses the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model (CLARA) to examine tradeoffs between the accuracy of estimated flood depth exceedances and the number and type of storms used to produce the estimates. Inclusion of lower-intensity, higher-frequency storms significantly reduces bias relative to storm suites with a similar number of storms but only containing high-intensity, lower-frequency storms, even when estimating exceedances at very low-frequency return periods. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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1704 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Application of a Coupled Vegetation Competition and Groundwater Simulation Model to Study Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges on Coastal Vegetation

by Su Yean Teh, Michael Turtora, Donald L. DeAngelis, Jiang Jiang, Leonard Pearlstine, Thomas J. Smith III and Hock Lye Koh

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(4), 1149-1177; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3041149 - 25 Sep 2015

Cited by 17 | Viewed by 7388

Abstract

Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An [...] Read more.

Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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4645 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Wind and Wave Setup Contributions to Extreme Sea Levels at a Tropical High Island: A Stochastic Cyclone Simulation Study for Apia, Samoa

by Ron Karl Hoeke, Kathleen L. McInnes and Julian G. O’Grady

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(3), 1117-1135; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3031117 - 22 Sep 2015

Cited by 36 | Viewed by 8652

Abstract

Wind-wave contributions to tropical cyclone (TC)-induced extreme sea levels are known to be significant in areas with narrow littoral zones, particularly at oceanic islands. Despite this, little information exists in many of these locations to assess the likelihood of inundation, the relative contribution [...] Read more.

Wind-wave contributions to tropical cyclone (TC)-induced extreme sea levels are known to be significant in areas with narrow littoral zones, particularly at oceanic islands. Despite this, little information exists in many of these locations to assess the likelihood of inundation, the relative contribution of wind and wave setup to this inundation, and how it may change with sea level rise (SLR), particularly at scales relevant to coastal infrastructure. In this study, we explore TC-induced extreme sea levels at spatial scales on the order of tens of meters at Apia, the capitol of Samoa, a nation in the tropical South Pacific with typical high-island fringing reef morphology. Ensembles of stochastically generated TCs (based on historical information) are combined with numerical simulations of wind waves, storm-surge, and wave setup to develop high-resolution statistical information on extreme sea levels and local contributions of wind setup and wave setup. The results indicate that storm track and local morphological details lead to local differences in extreme sea levels on the order of 1 m at spatial scales of less than 1 km. Wave setup is the overall largest contributor at most locations; however, wind setup may exceed wave setup in some sheltered bays. When an arbitrary SLR scenario (+1 m) is introduced, overall extreme sea levels are found to modestly decrease relative to SLR, but wave energy near the shoreline greatly increases, consistent with a number of other recent studies. These differences have implications for coastal adaptation strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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5523 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Flood Risk Assessment of the LaHave River Watershed, Canada Using GIS Techniques and an Unstructured Grid Combined River-Coastal Hydrodynamic Model

by Kevin McGuigan, Tim Webster and Kate Collins

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(3), 1093-1116; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3031093 - 22 Sep 2015

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 11032

Abstract

A flexible mesh hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate flooding of the LaHave River watershed in Nova Scotia, Canada, from the combined effects of fluvial discharge and ocean tide and surge conditions. The analysis incorporated high-resolution lidar elevation data, bathymetric river and coastal [...] Read more.

A flexible mesh hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate flooding of the LaHave River watershed in Nova Scotia, Canada, from the combined effects of fluvial discharge and ocean tide and surge conditions. The analysis incorporated high-resolution lidar elevation data, bathymetric river and coastal chart data, and river cross-section information. These data were merged to generate a seamless digital elevation model which was used, along with river discharge and tidal elevation data, to run a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to produce flood risk predictions for the watershed. Fine resolution topography data were integrated seamlessly with coarse resolution bathymetry using a series of GIS tools. Model simulations were carried out using DHI Mike 21 Flexible Mesh under a variety of combinations of discharge events and storm surge levels. Discharge events were simulated for events that represent a typical annual maximum runoff and extreme events, while tide and storm surge events were simulated by using the predicted tidal time series and adding 2 and 3 m storm surge events to the ocean level seaward of the mouth of the river. Model output was examined and the maximum water level for the duration of each simulation was extracted and merged into one file that was used in a GIS to map the maximum flood extent and water depth. Upstream areas were most vulnerable to fluvial discharge events, the lower estuary was most vulnerable to the effect of storm surge and sea-level rise, and the Town of Bridgewater was influenced by the combined effects of discharge and storm surge. To facilitate the use of the results for planning officials, GIS flood risk layers were intersected with critical infrastructure, identifying the roads, buildings, and municipal sewage infrastructure at risk under each flood scenario. Roads were converted to points at 10 m spacing for inundated areas and appended with the flood depth calculated from the maximum water level subtracted from the lidar digital elevation model. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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12400 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Observations and Predictions of Wave Runup, Extreme Water Levels, and Medium-Term Dune Erosion during Storm Conditions

by Serge Suanez, Romain Cancouët, France Floc'h, Emmanuel Blaise, Fabrice Ardhuin, Jean-François Filipot, Jean-Marie Cariolet and Christophe Delacourt

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(3), 674-698; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3030674 - 24 Jul 2015

Cited by 51 | Viewed by 8538

Abstract

Monitoring of dune erosion and accretion on the high-energy macrotidal Vougot beach in North Brittany (France) over the past decade (2004–2014) has revealed significant morphological changes. Dune toe erosion/accretion records have been compared with extreme water level measurements, defined as the sum of [...] Read more.

Monitoring of dune erosion and accretion on the high-energy macrotidal Vougot beach in North Brittany (France) over the past decade (2004–2014) has revealed significant morphological changes. Dune toe erosion/accretion records have been compared with extreme water level measurements, defined as the sum of (i) astronomic tide; (ii) storm surge; and (iii) vertical wave runup. Runup parameterization was conducted using swash limits, beach profiles, and hydrodynamic (H_m0, T_m0_,–1, and high tide water level—HTWL) data sets obtained from high frequency field surveys. The aim was to quantify in-situ environmental conditions and dimensional swash parameters for the best calibration of Battjes [1] runup formula. In addition, an empirical equation based on observed tidal water level and offshore wave height was produced to estimate extreme water levels over the whole period of dune morphological change monitoring. A good correlation between this empirical equation (1.01H_moξ_o) and field runup measurements (R_max) was obtained (R² 85%). The goodness of fit given by the RMSE was about 0.29 m. A good relationship was noticed between dune erosion and high water levels when the water levels exceeded the dune foot elevation. In contrast, when extreme water levels were below the height of the toe of the dune sediment budget increased, inducing foredune recovery. These erosion and accretion phases may be related to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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4231 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding

by Philip M. Orton, Stefan A. Talke, David A. Jay, Larry Yin, Alan F. Blumberg, Nickitas Georgas, Haihong Zhao, Hugh J. Roberts and Kytt MacManus

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(3), 654-673; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3030654 - 21 Jul 2015

Cited by 49 | Viewed by 20399

Abstract

Here, we demonstrate that reductions in the depth of inlets or estuary channels can be used to reduce or prevent coastal flooding. A validated hydrodynamic model of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC), is used to test nature-based adaptation measures in ameliorating flooding [...] Read more.

Here, we demonstrate that reductions in the depth of inlets or estuary channels can be used to reduce or prevent coastal flooding. A validated hydrodynamic model of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC), is used to test nature-based adaptation measures in ameliorating flooding for NYC's two largest historical coastal flood events. In addition to control runs with modern bathymetry, three altered landscape scenarios are tested: (1) increasing the area of wetlands to their 1879 footprint and bathymetry, but leaving deep shipping channels unaltered; (2) shallowing all areas deeper than 2 m in the bay to be 2 m below Mean Low Water; (3) shallowing only the narrowest part of the inlet to the bay. These three scenarios are deliberately extreme and designed to evaluate the leverage each approach exerts on water levels. They result in peak water level reductions of 0.3%, 15%, and 6.8% for Hurricane Sandy, and 2.4%, 46% and 30% for the Category-3 hurricane of 1821, respectively (bay-wide averages). These results suggest that shallowing can provide greater flood protection than wetland restoration, and it is particularly effective at reducing "fast-pulse" storm surges that rise and fall quickly over several hours, like that of the 1821 storm. Nonetheless, the goal of flood mitigation must be weighed against economic, navigation, and ecological needs, and practical concerns such as the availability of sediment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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1076 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Measurement of Personal Self-Efficacy in Preparing for a Hurricane and Its Role in Modeling the Likelihood of Evacuation

by Alan E. Stewart

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(3), 630-653; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3030630 - 21 Jul 2015

Cited by 19 | Viewed by 6669

Abstract

Storm surges require that coastal residents make necessary preparations and evacuate the coast prior to hurricane landfall. An important individual characteristic in preparing for tropical cyclones is hurricane personal self-efficacy. Coastal residents who believe that it is possible to prepare for and evacuate [...] Read more.

Storm surges require that coastal residents make necessary preparations and evacuate the coast prior to hurricane landfall. An important individual characteristic in preparing for tropical cyclones is hurricane personal self-efficacy. Coastal residents who believe that it is possible to prepare for and evacuate ahead of a hurricane (hurricane response possibilities) and, further, believe that they personally can prepare and evacuate (hurricane personal self-efficacy) will be better prepared for hurricanes. In this study the author used a sample of 334 people to evaluate an 8-item self-report measure, the Hurricane Personal Self-Efficacy Scale (HPSES). This measure can be used to assess beliefs that it is possible in general to prepare for a hurricane and that the respondent him or herself can make these preparations and evacuate ahead of a hurricane. A factor analysis confirmed that the items measured two characteristics: (1) beliefs that is it possible for people in general to prepare for a hurricane; and (2) beliefs that the respondent personally could prepare for a hurricane and evacuate. The author also examined the functionality of the measure within a framework that was informed by Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). Hurricane response possibility beliefs, prior experiences with hurricane evacuation and hurricane-related property damages, and a tendency for people to sense and observe the weather were all predictive of personal self-efficacy in preparing for hurricanes, R2adj = 0.36. In operationalizing other constructs associated with PMT using weather-related psychological measures in a path analysis model, it was found that personal self-efficacy, fear of consequences of the severe and extreme weather, and appraisal of the threats posed by behaviors that could result in injury or death during severe weather together predicted the self-reported likelihood of evacuating, R2adj = 0.26. The implications of the study for coastal engineers and planners, ways of increasing hurricane personal self-efficacy in preparing for hurricanes, and the study's limitations are discussed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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5635 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modeling Storm Surge and Inundation in Washington, DC, during Hurricane Isabel and the 1936 Potomac River Great Flood

by Harry V. Wang, Jon Derek Loftis, David Forrest, Wade Smith and Barry Stamey

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(3), 607-629; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3030607 - 21 Jul 2015

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 10289

Abstract

Washington, DC, the capital of the U.S., is located along the Upper Tidal Potomac River, where a reliable operational model is needed for making predictions of storm surge and river-induced flooding. We set up a finite volume model using a semi-implicit, Eulerian-Lagrangian scheme [...] Read more.

Washington, DC, the capital of the U.S., is located along the Upper Tidal Potomac River, where a reliable operational model is needed for making predictions of storm surge and river-induced flooding. We set up a finite volume model using a semi-implicit, Eulerian-Lagrangian scheme on a base grid (200 m) and a special feature of sub-grids (10 m), sourced with high-resolution LiDAR data and bathymetry surveys. The model domain starts at the fall line and extends 120 km downstream to Colonial Beach, VA. The model was used to simulate storm tides during the 2003 Hurricane Isabel. The water level measuring 3.1 m reached the upper tidal river in the vicinity of Washington during the peak of the storm, followed by second and third flood peaks two and four days later, resulting from river flooding coming downstream after heavy precipitation in the watershed. The modeled water level and timing were accurate in matching with the verified peak observations within 9 cm and 3 cm, and with R2 equal to 0.93 and 0.98 at the Wisconsin Avenue and Washington gauges, respectively. A simulation was also conducted for reconstructing the historical 1936 Potomac River Great Flood that inundated downtown. It was identified that the flood water, with a velocity exceeding 2.7 m/s in the downstream of Roosevelt Island, pinched through the bank northwest of East Potomac Park near DC. The modeled maximum inundation extents revealed a crescent-shaped flooding area, which was consistent with the historical surveyed flood map of the event. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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5235 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change, Coastal Vulnerability and the Need for Adaptation Alternatives: Planning and Design Examples from Egypt and the USA

by S Jeffress Williams and Nabil Ismail

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(3), 591-606; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3030591 - 15 Jul 2015

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 10862

Abstract

Planning and design of coastal protection for high-risk events with low to moderate or uncertain probabilities are a challenging balance of short- and long-term cost vs. protection of lives and infrastructure. The pervasive, complex, and accelerating impacts of climate change on coastal [...] Read more.

Planning and design of coastal protection for high-risk events with low to moderate or uncertain probabilities are a challenging balance of short- and long-term cost vs. protection of lives and infrastructure. The pervasive, complex, and accelerating impacts of climate change on coastal areas, including sea-level rise, storm surge and tidal flooding, require full integration of the latest science into strategic plans and engineering designs. While the impacts of changes occurring are global, local effects are highly variable and often greatly exacerbated by geophysical (land subsidence, faulting), oceanographic (ocean circulation, wind patterns) and anthropogenic factors. Reducing carbon emissions is needed to mitigate global warming, but adaptation can accommodate at least near future change impacts. Adaptation should include alternatives that best match region-specific risk, time frame, environmental conditions, and the desired protection. Optimal alternatives are ones that provide protection, accommodate or mimic natural coastal processes, and include landforms such as barrier islands and wetlands. Plans are often for 50 years, but longer-term planning is recommended since risk from climate change will persist for centuries. This paper presents an assessment of impacts of accelerating climate change on the adequacy of coastal protection strategies and explores design measures needed for an optimum degree of protection and risk reduction. Three coastal areas facing similar challenges are discussed: Abu-Qir Bay, Nile River delta plain, Egypt; Lake Borgne, New Orleans, Louisiana delta plain; and the New York City region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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10709 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Coastal Flood Assessment Based on Field Debris Measurements and Wave Runup Empirical Model

by David Didier, Pascal Bernatchez, Geneviève Boucher-Brossard, Adrien Lambert, Christian Fraser, Robert L. Barnett and Stefanie Van-Wierts

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(3), 560-590; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3030560 - 15 Jul 2015

Cited by 40 | Viewed by 8134

Abstract

On 6 December 2010, an extra-tropical storm reached Atlantic Canada, causing coastal flooding due to high water levels being driven toward the north shore of Chaleur Bay. The extent of flooding was identified in the field along the coastline at Maria using DGPS. [...] Read more.

On 6 December 2010, an extra-tropical storm reached Atlantic Canada, causing coastal flooding due to high water levels being driven toward the north shore of Chaleur Bay. The extent of flooding was identified in the field along the coastline at Maria using DGPS. Using the assumption that the maximum elevation of flooded areas represents the combination of astronomical tide, storm surge and wave runup, which is the maximum elevation reached by the breaking waves on the beach, all flood limits were identified. A flood-zone delineation was performed using GIS and LiDAR data. An empirical formula was used to estimate runup elevation during the flood event. A coastal flood map of the 6 December flood event was made using empirical data and runup calculations according to offshore wave climate simulations. Along the natural beach, results show that estimating runup based on offshore wave data and upper foreshore beach slope represents well the observed flood extent. Where a seawall occupies the beach, wave breaking occurs at the toe of the structure and wave height needs to be considered independently of runup. In both cases (artificial and natural), flood risk is underestimated if storm surge height alone is considered. There is a need to incorporate wave characteristics in order to adequately model potential flood extent. A coastal flooding projection is proposed for Pointe Verte based on total water levels estimated according to wave climate simulation return periods and relative sea-level rise for the Chaleur Bay. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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7032 KiB

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Exploring Water Level Sensitivity for Metropolitan New York during Sandy (2012) Using Ensemble Storm Surge Simulations

by Brian A. Colle, Malcolm J. Bowman, Keith J. Roberts, M. Hamish Bowman, Charles N. Flagg, Jian Kuang, Yonghui Weng, Erin B. Munsell and Fuqing Zhang

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(2), 428-443; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3020428 - 19 Jun 2015

Cited by 17 | Viewed by 7140

Abstract

This paper describes storm surge simulations made for Sandy (2012) for the Metropolitan New York (NYC) area using the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model forced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The atmospheric forecast uncertainty was quantified using 11-members from an atmospheric [...] Read more.

This paper describes storm surge simulations made for Sandy (2012) for the Metropolitan New York (NYC) area using the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model forced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The atmospheric forecast uncertainty was quantified using 11-members from an atmospheric Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) system. A control WRF member re-initialized every 24 h demonstrated the capability of the WRF-ADCIRC models to realistically simulate the 2.83 m surge and 4.40 m storm tide (surge + astronomical tide) above mean lower low water (MLLW) for NYC. Starting about four days before landfall, an ensemble of model runs based on the 11 “best” meteorological predictions illustrate how modest changes in the track (20–100 km) and winds (3–5 m s⁻¹) of Sandy approaching the New Jersey coast and NYC can lead to relatively large (0.50–1.50 m) storm surge variations. The ensemble also illustrates the extreme importance of the timing of landfall relative to local high tide. The observed coastal flooding was not the worst case for this particular event. Had Sandy made landfall at differing times, locations and stages of the tide, peak water levels could have been up to 0.5 m higher than experienced. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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5068 KiB

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Directional Storm Surge in Enclosed Seas: The Red Sea, the Adriatic, and Venice

by Carl Drews

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(2), 356-367; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3020356 - 29 May 2015

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 12769

Abstract

Storm surge is dependent on wind direction, with maximum surge heights occurring when strong winds blow onshore. It is less obvious what happens when a port city is situated at the end of a long narrow gulf, like Venice at the northwestern end [...] Read more.

Storm surge is dependent on wind direction, with maximum surge heights occurring when strong winds blow onshore. It is less obvious what happens when a port city is situated at the end of a long narrow gulf, like Venice at the northwestern end of the Adriatic Sea. Does the narrow marine approach to the port city limit the dangerous wind direction to a span of only a few degrees? This modeling study shows that the response in surge height to wind direction is a sinusoidal curve for port cities at the end of a long inlet, as well as for cities exposed along a straight coastline. Surge height depends on the cosine of the angle between the wind direction and the major axis of the narrow gulf. There is no special protection from storm surge afforded by a narrow ocean-going approach to a port city. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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807 KiB

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Tolerable Time-Varying Overflow on Grass-Covered Slopes

by Steven A. Hughes and Christopher I. Thornton

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(1), 128-145; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3010128 - 19 Mar 2015

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 5949

Abstract

Engineers require estimates of tolerable overtopping limits for grass-covered levees, dikes, and embankments that might experience steady overflow. Realistic tolerance estimates can be used for both resilient design and risk assessment. A simple framework is developed for estimating tolerable overtopping on grass-covered slopes [...] Read more.

Engineers require estimates of tolerable overtopping limits for grass-covered levees, dikes, and embankments that might experience steady overflow. Realistic tolerance estimates can be used for both resilient design and risk assessment. A simple framework is developed for estimating tolerable overtopping on grass-covered slopes caused by slowly-varying (in time) overtopping discharge (e.g., events like storm surges or river flood waves). The framework adapts the well-known Hewlett curves of tolerable limiting velocity as a function of overflow duration. It has been hypothesized that the form of the Hewlett curves suggests that the grass erosion process is governed by the flow work on the slope above a critical threshold velocity (referred to as excess work), and the tolerable erosional limit is reached when the cumulative excess work exceeds a given value determined from the time-dependent Hewlett curves. The cumulative excess work is expressed in terms of overflow discharge above a critical discharge that slowly varies in time, similar to a discharge hydrograph. The methodology is easily applied using forecast storm surge hydrographs at specific locations where wave action is minimal. For preliminary planning purposes, when storm surge hydrographs are unavailable, hypothetical equations for the water level and overflow discharge hydrographs are proposed in terms of the values at maximum overflow and the total duration of overflow. An example application is given to illustrate use of the methodology. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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776 KiB

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The Use of a Statistical Model of Storm Surge as a Bias Correction for Dynamical Surge Models and its Applicability along the U.S. East Coast

by Haydee Salmun and Andrea Molod

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(1), 73-86; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3010073 - 12 Feb 2015

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 5994

Abstract

The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical [...] Read more.

The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical model is applied to the region of the east coast of the U.S. susceptible to winter extratropical storms. The statistical prediction is based on a regression relation between the “storm maximum” storm surge and the storm composite significant wave height predicted ata nearby location. The use of the statistical surge prediction as an alternative bias correction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational storm surge forecasts is shownhere to be statistically equivalent to the existing bias correctiontechnique and potentially applicable for much longer forecast lead times as well as for storm surge climate prediction. Applying the statistical model to locations along the east coast shows that the regression relation can be “trained” with data from tide gauge measurements and near-shore buoys along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, and that it provides accurate estimates of storm surge. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)

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