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Open AccessArticle

The Use of a Statistical Model of Storm Surge as a Bias Correction for Dynamical Surge Models and its Applicability along the U.S. East Coast

by Haydee Salmun 1,2,*,† and Andrea Molod 3,4,†
1
Department of Geography, Hunter College of the City University of New York, 695 Park Ave., New York, NY 10065, USA
2
Earth and Environmental Science Doctoral Program, The Graduate Center of CUNY, 365 Fifth Ave., New York, NY 10016, USA
3
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
4
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Mail Code: 610.1, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Authors contributed equally to this work.
Academic Editor: Rick Luettich
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(1), 73-86; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3010073
Received: 19 October 2014 / Accepted: 29 January 2015 / Published: 12 February 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)
The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical model is applied to the region of the east coast of the U.S. susceptible to winter extratropical storms. The statistical prediction is based on a regression relation between the “storm maximum” storm surge and the storm composite significant wave height predicted ata nearby location. The use of the statistical surge prediction as an alternative bias correction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational storm surge forecasts is shownhere to be statistically equivalent to the existing bias correctiontechnique and potentially applicable for much longer forecast lead times as well as for storm surge climate prediction. Applying the statistical model to locations along the east coast shows that the regression relation can be “trained” with data from tide gauge measurements and near-shore buoys along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, and that it provides accurate estimates of storm surge. View Full-Text
Keywords: extratropical storms; storm surge; statistical methods; bias correction extratropical storms; storm surge; statistical methods; bias correction
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Salmun, H.; Molod, A. The Use of a Statistical Model of Storm Surge as a Bias Correction for Dynamical Surge Models and its Applicability along the U.S. East Coast. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3, 73-86.

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