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Reliability and Risk Analysis for Ships and Offshore Structures
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Reliability and Risk Analysis for Ships and Offshore Structures

A Special Issue of Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (ISSN 2077-1312) belonging to the section "Ocean Engineering".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 25 February 2027 | Viewed by 2833

Editors

Prof. Dr. Nianzhong Chen

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Interests: reliability and risk analysis; buckling and ultimate strength; fatigue and fracture; corrosion fatigue; structural integrity assessment; intelligent operation and maintenance; artificial intelligence; digital twin
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Yan Liu

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Interests: marine structural design; reliability; integrity management; risk assessment; artificial intelligence

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Uncertainties prevail in the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, and absolute safety cannot be guaranteed. Consequently, the optimal approach is to develop structures with quantifiable and acceptable levels of risk. Over the past two decades, significant efforts have been devoted to enhancing the safety and reliability of ships and offshore structures. This has led to the development of new reliability assessment methods, particularly a range of simulation-based techniques, for analyzing both time-invariant and time-variant structural reliability. Furthermore, reliability-based industry standards and rules have been established in marine engineering, and reliability- and risk-informed approaches to design, operation, and maintenance have been advanced to support life-cycle management.

This Special Issue invites contributions from researchers in academia and industry working in the field of reliability and risk analysis for ships and offshore structures. The guest editors are committed to ensuring a high-quality peer-review process and facilitating the timely publication of original research articles, review papers, and case studies in this field.

Prof. Dr. Nianzhong Chen
Dr. Yan Liu
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 250 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for assessment.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-anonymized peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • buckling and ultimate strength
  • fatigue and fracture
  • corrosion
  • structural reliability analysis/assessment
  • time-invariant/independent reliability analysis/assessment
  • time-variant/dependent reliability analysis/assessment
  • structural integrity assessment
  • reliability methods for reliability estimate
  • uncertainty analysis
  • stochastic modelling
  • bayesian updating for reliability analysis
  • bayesian network for reliability analysis and updating
  • risk-based inspection
  • risk-based intelligent operation and maintenance
  • risk analysis
  • qualitative risk analysis
  • quantitative risk analysis
  • risk-based design
  • risk-based inspection
  • risk-based maintenance
  • intelligent operation and maintenance
  • life-cycle management

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Further information on MDPI's Special Issue policies can be found here.

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

33 pages, 1440 KB  
Article
A Novel Time-Varying Failure Risk Assessment Framework for Marine Diesel Engines Integrating Large Language Models and Bayesian Networks
by Siheng Zhao, Zixiang Zhu, Shifei Ma, Jing Zhang, Tingting Li and Zhihua Chen
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2026, 14(17), 1586; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14171586 - 27 Aug 2026
Viewed by 263
Abstract
Fault risks in marine diesel engines (MDEs) propagate across coupled subsystems and evolve with component degradation, but existing methods rarely integrate accident narratives, causal structure, and time-varying reliability. This study develops a novel framework that integrates large language models (LLMs), rough–fuzzy DEMATEL, interpretive [...] Read more.
Fault risks in marine diesel engines (MDEs) propagate across coupled subsystems and evolve with component degradation, but existing methods rarely integrate accident narratives, causal structure, and time-varying reliability. This study develops a novel framework that integrates large language models (LLMs), rough–fuzzy DEMATEL, interpretive structural modeling (ISM), and Bayesian networks (BNs) with service-time-dependent priors for time-varying failure analysis. First, the risk-influencing factors (RIFs) are extracted from accident and maintenance records using LLMs, text embeddings, semantic clustering, and expert consolidation. Rough–fuzzy DEMATEL and ISM are used to identify causal relationships and the hierarchical structure. The RIFs, bottom-level components, and target failure are then mapped into a multilayer BN parameterized using Noisy-OR relationships and Weibull-derived time-varying priors. In a case study of MDE hard starting, 338 cause descriptions from 35 records yielded 12 RIFs, with semantic coverage above 93% across four evaluation models. When hard starting was observed, the posterior probability of mechanical failure of the fuel injection system reached 60.92%, compared with 36.91% for governor and mechanical actuation system failure. Over 0–10,000 h of cumulative service, the model-inferred probability of hard starting during a single starting attempt increased from 38.09% to 75.23% under the specified model parameterization. The framework supports causal interpretation, troubleshooting prioritization, and service-time-dependent maintenance prioritization. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Reliability and Risk Analysis for Ships and Offshore Structures)
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37 pages, 5879 KB  
Article
Reliability-Based Time-Reserve Assessment of Bulk Carrier Accidents Triggered by Solid Bulk Cargo Liquefaction and Dynamic Separation
by Sergey S. Kubrin, Sergey I. Kondratyev, Evgeniy V. Khekert, Viktor V. Kondratiev, Natalia Nikolaevna Bryukhanova, Vitaliy A. Gladkikh, Boris V. Malozyomov, Nikita V. Martyushev, Roman V. Klyuev and Antonina I. Karlina
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2026, 14(16), 1513; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14161513 - 16 Aug 2026
Viewed by 361
Abstract
Liquefaction and dynamic separation of moisture-sensitive solid bulk cargoes may remain latent for much of a voyage and then manifest as a sustained heel, leaving a comparatively short interval for emergency action. This study develops an exploratory reliability-based analysis of accident chronology using [...] Read more.
Liquefaction and dynamic separation of moisture-sensitive solid bulk cargoes may remain latent for much of a voyage and then manifest as a sustained heel, leaving a comparatively short interval for emergency action. This study develops an exploratory reliability-based analysis of accident chronology using a source-traceable registry of 35 casualties and incidents. Eighteen cases provided post-heel information suitable for the principal emergency time reserve analysis; the observations comprised exact, approximate, reconstructed, interval-censored, and right-censored times. Descriptive statistics calculated from the selected central values and censoring bounds yielded a mean emergency time reserve TR of 200.99 min, a median of 192.20 min, and a range of 67.50–335.10 min. In likelihood-based fitting that retained censoring, the Weibull model achieved the lowest AIC (212.51) and BIC (215.18), with Kolmogorov–Smirnov D = 0.097 (p = 0.989). The fitted lower-tail quantiles were Q10 = 105.40 min and Q25 = 147.99 min, substantially shorter than the descriptive mean. Robustness was examined using nonparametric estimators, Akaike-weighted model averaging, source-confidence weighting, leave-one-out analysis, and alternative interval assumptions. The contribution is a reproducible framework for converting heterogeneous casualty narratives into uncertainty-qualified lower-tail time-reserve evidence and non-prescriptive bridge–team decision support. The framework is not a physical stability model and cannot replace ship-specific GM/GZ calculations, approved loading and stability information, or the master’s judgement. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Reliability and Risk Analysis for Ships and Offshore Structures)
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22 pages, 2103 KB  
Article
The Importance of Dynamic Mooring Analysis for Reliable Prediction of Suction Anchor Dynamic Response in Floating Offshore Wind Turbines
by Shuang Liang, Yifeng Lin and Fayun Liang
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2026, 14(9), 826; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14090826 - 29 Apr 2026
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 677
Abstract
Accurate prediction of the dynamic load-bearing characteristics of suction anchors is critical for the safety and reliability of floating offshore wind turbines. This study bridges the gap between mooring approaches and anchor foundation response assessment by systematically quantifying how the choice of mooring [...] Read more.
Accurate prediction of the dynamic load-bearing characteristics of suction anchors is critical for the safety and reliability of floating offshore wind turbines. This study bridges the gap between mooring approaches and anchor foundation response assessment by systematically quantifying how the choice of mooring analysis method (dynamic or quasi-static) affects the predicted displacement response of suction anchors. Using OpenFAST coupled with a validated suction anchor dynamic response model (SADR), the motion responses of the suction anchor foundation for the OC4 semi-submersible platform are computed under regular waves of varying heights and periods, as well as irregular sea states representing operational and extreme conditions. The results reveal that the ratio of the anchor displacement predicted by dynamic mooring analysis to that predicted by quasi-static mooring analysis grows nonlinearly with increasing wave height and rises substantially as wave period lengthens, indicating that mooring dynamic effects become progressively more pronounced under large wave heights and long-period swell conditions. Statistical analysis under irregular waves further reveals that under moderate operational conditions, the response variability predicted by the two methods remains comparable; however, under extreme sea states, dynamic analysis yields not only larger peak displacements but also substantially greater response variability, with standard deviations significantly exceeding those obtained from quasi-static predictions. These findings provide quantitative evidence that the application of quasi-static mooring analysis to anchor foundation design carries a substantial risk of underestimating true responses, and that this underestimation becomes increasingly severe under high wave heights, long periods, and extreme conditions. The work establishes that dynamic mooring analysis is essential for reliable suction anchor foundations design and long-term serviceability assessment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Reliability and Risk Analysis for Ships and Offshore Structures)
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17 pages, 6679 KB  
Article
Impact Response of Compression–Torsion Lattice Structures Under Underwater Shock Wave Load
by Kehua Leng, Zhixin Huang, Yongbo Jiang, Jiajing Lei, Zihao Chen and Ying Li
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2026, 14(7), 619; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14070619 - 27 Mar 2026
Viewed by 686
Abstract
Compression–torsion lattice structures (CTLS) exhibit coupled compressive–torsional deformation, yet their response under underwater shock loading remains to be further investigated. In this study, sandwich structures with CTLS cores were investigated through a combination of shock tube experiments, digital image correlation (DIC), and nonlinear [...] Read more.
Compression–torsion lattice structures (CTLS) exhibit coupled compressive–torsional deformation, yet their response under underwater shock loading remains to be further investigated. In this study, sandwich structures with CTLS cores were investigated through a combination of shock tube experiments, digital image correlation (DIC), and nonlinear finite element analysis. The underwater shock response and protective performance were evaluated based on rear-plate kinetic energy, central deflection, and plastic deformation. The results indicate that, at the same relative density, CTLS sandwich structures reduce the rear-plate kinetic energy by more than 42% and the peak deflection by 12.4%, compared with sandwich structures employing traditional straight lattice structures (TSLS). Under identical compressive stiffness, CTLS provide superior protective performance to TSLS, and this advantage becomes more pronounced with increasing ligament diameter. Furthermore, CTLS sandwich structures extend the tunable range of the core energy absorption ratio from 33–35% to 24–38%, reflecting enhanced flexibility in energy distribution within the structure. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Reliability and Risk Analysis for Ships and Offshore Structures)
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