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Forests
Special Issues
Modeling of Forest Dynamics and Species Distribution
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Modeling of Forest Dynamics and Species Distribution

A special issue of Forests (ISSN 1999-4907). This special issue belongs to the section "Forest Inventory, Modeling and Remote Sensing".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 28 November 2025 | Viewed by 1066

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Youngsang Kwon

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, USA
Interests: biogeography; forest dynamics; species distribution modeling (SDM); terrestrial carbon cycling; RS/GIS; spatial statistics; climate change

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Forests are dynamic ecosystems that play a critical role in maintaining biodiversity and regulating global climate systems. However, these ecosystems are under increasing pressure from climate change, land-use modifications, and other anthropogenic disturbances. Understanding and predicting forest dynamics, particularly in relation to species distribution patterns, is vital for their sustainable management and conservation efforts. This Special Issue will bring together innovative research focused on modeling forest dynamics and species distribution at multiple scales. We encourage contributions that utilize advanced methodologies, including remote sensing, ecological modeling, machine learning, and GIS-based approaches, to investigate how forest ecosystems respond to environmental changes. This collection will highlight studies addressing forest structure, species distribution shifts, and the implications for ecosystem services in the context of global environmental change.

Dr. Youngsang Kwon
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Forests is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • forest dynamics
  • species distribution
  • Climate change
  • ecological modeling
  • remote sensing
  • GIS
  • biodiversity
  • conservation
  • ecosystem services
  • land-use change

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Further information on MDPI's Special Issue policies can be found here.

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

16 pages, 4429 KB  
Article
Formation- and Species-Level Responses of the Atlantic Forest to Climate Change
by Eduardo Vinícius S. Oliveira, Carla Diele Cabral Vieira, Jhonatan Rafael Zárate-Salazar, Wadson de Jesus Correia, Alexandre de Siqueira Pinto and Sidney F. Gouveia
Forests 2025, 16(11), 1674; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111674 - 2 Nov 2025
Viewed by 50
Abstract
The hyper-diverse Atlantic Rainforest on the eastern coast of South America comprises deciduous, semideciduous, and evergreen forest formations. How these formations, both as communities and through their individual species, are responding to climate change remains elusive. Using habitat suitability modeling, we examine the [...] Read more.
The hyper-diverse Atlantic Rainforest on the eastern coast of South America comprises deciduous, semideciduous, and evergreen forest formations. How these formations, both as communities and through their individual species, are responding to climate change remains elusive. Using habitat suitability modeling, we examine the effects of climate change on the distribution of the Atlantic Rainforest assessed both at the species level and the formation level. Additionally, we investigated whether mismatches between species- and formation-level trends are linked to the climatic affinities of species at the formations where they occur. We predicted a decrease in habitat suitability for all deciduous, semideciduous, and evergreen formations, based on individual species models, up to 2100. However, when considering species together as formations, we predicted expansions of deciduous and semideciduous formations and contractions of evergreen formations for the same period. The divergence between the synchronous and individual suitability models for deciduous and semideciduous formations suggests that climate-tolerant species will likely expand their range, replacing those with narrower climate tolerances. This shift may alter the structure and composition of these communities as currently known. Our findings provide valuable insights that can inform strategies for conserving the Atlantic Rainforest, including the development of new regulatory measures, the establishment of protected areas, and the formulation of effective forest management policies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling of Forest Dynamics and Species Distribution)
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24 pages, 6572 KB  
Article
Climate-Change Impacts on Distribution of Amazonian Woody Plant Species Key to Conservation, Restoration and Sustainable Use in the Colombian Amazon
by Uriel G. Murcia-García, Armando Sterling, Jeferson Rodríguez-Espinoza, José A. Carrero-Rincón, María I. Acosta-Salinas and Carlos H. Rodríguez-León
Forests 2025, 16(11), 1640; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111640 - 27 Oct 2025
Viewed by 307
Abstract
Climate change poses growing threats to Amazonian biodiversity, yet species-specific responses remain poorly understood, particularly in the Colombian Amazon. This study assessed the potential distribution and habitat suitability of eight woody plant species—Euterpe precatoria (Mart.) A.J.Hend., Mauritia flexuosa L.f., Oenocarpus bataua Mart., [...] Read more.
Climate change poses growing threats to Amazonian biodiversity, yet species-specific responses remain poorly understood, particularly in the Colombian Amazon. This study assessed the potential distribution and habitat suitability of eight woody plant species—Euterpe precatoria (Mart.) A.J.Hend., Mauritia flexuosa L.f., Oenocarpus bataua Mart., Minquartia guianensis Aubl., Cedrela odorata L., Virola elongata (Benth.) Warb., Theobroma grandiflorum (Willd. ex Spreng.) Schum. and Thebroma cacao L.—under a baseline period (1970–2000) and future climate projections for mid- (2041–2060) and late-century (2061–2080) periods, using two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Species distribution models (SDMs) integrated bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors and were spatially intersected with Special Management Areas. Results revealed contrasting responses among species. M. flexuosa, E. precatoria, O. bataua, V. elongata, M. guianensis and T. cacao retained over 95% of their baseline suitable habitat and even expanded into new regions, reflecting broad climatic resilience under both future scenarios. In contrast, C. odorata experienced moderate contractions, losing 8.7% of their current ranges under SSP585 by 2080. The most vulnerable species was T. grandiflorum, projected to lose up to 27% of its current suitable habitat under the most pessimistic scenario. Overall, losses were mainly concentrated in the natural fractions of Indigenous Reserves and National Natural Parks. These findings underscore the heterogeneous responses of Amazonian species to climate change and highlight the need for adaptive conservation and management strategies. Protecting climate refugia, promoting ecological connectivity, and incorporating climate-resilient species into restoration programs will be critical to maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and local livelihoods in the Colombian Amazon under future climates. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling of Forest Dynamics and Species Distribution)
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18 pages, 8080 KB  
Article
Spatial Distribution and Intraspecific and Interspecific Association in a Deciduous Broad-Leaved Forest in East China
by Jingxuan Wang, Zeyu Xiang, Dan Xi, Zhaochen Zhang, Saixia Zhou and Jiaxin Zhang
Forests 2025, 16(10), 1511; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16101511 - 24 Sep 2025
Viewed by 330
Abstract
The spatial distribution of plant species is a crucial indicator of the mechanisms driving competition or coexistence both within and between populations and communities. Analyzing these patterns provides essential insights into fundamental ecological processes and aids in evaluating ecological hypotheses. To study the [...] Read more.
The spatial distribution of plant species is a crucial indicator of the mechanisms driving competition or coexistence both within and between populations and communities. Analyzing these patterns provides essential insights into fundamental ecological processes and aids in evaluating ecological hypotheses. To study the spatial distribution of dominant tree species and their associations both within and among species, we established a 25-hectare forest plot in Lushan Mountain. We employed the g(r) function alongside three null models—complete spatial randomness (CSR), heterogeneous Poisson (HP), and antecedent condition (AC)—to analyze spatial patterns and assess species interactions at various life stages. Additionally, we examined the relationships between spatial distributions and environmental factors such as soil properties and topography using Berman’s test. Our results showed that all 12 dominant tree species exhibited significant aggregation under the CSR model; however, the scales of aggregation were reduced under the HP model. We also found evidence of aggregation among multiple species across different life stages and tree layers under CSR. Notably, this pattern persisted under the AC model but was limited to specific spatial scales. Furthermore, elevation, topographical convexity, and the total content of soil nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) were identified as statistically significant predictors of species distributions. Overall, these findings highlight that both biological and environmental factors play a vital role in shaping plant spatial patterns across different scales. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling of Forest Dynamics and Species Distribution)
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