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Editorial

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6 pages, 198 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Disconnect within Agriculture and Ecosystem Climate Effects, Adaptations and Policy

by Anastasia W. Thayer, Aurora M Vargas, Thomas E. Lacher and Bruce A. McCarl

Climate 2020, 8(5), 63; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8050063 - 13 May 2020

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2920

Abstract

Frequently, agriculture and ecosystems (AE) are seen as separate entities, causing entity specific solutions in response to threats [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

Research

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15 pages, 239 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Adaptation Options for Coastal Communities and Local Governments

by Laura Sinay and R. W. (Bill) Carter

Climate 2020, 8(1), 7; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010007 - 7 Jan 2020

Cited by 41 | Viewed by 19248

Abstract

Extreme weather events and failure to adapt to the likely impacts of climate change are two of the most significant threats to humanity. Therefore, many local communities are preparing adaptation plans. Even so, much of what was done has not been published in [...] Read more.

Extreme weather events and failure to adapt to the likely impacts of climate change are two of the most significant threats to humanity. Therefore, many local communities are preparing adaptation plans. Even so, much of what was done has not been published in the peer-reviewed literature. This means that consideration of adaptation options for local communities is limited. With the objective of assisting in the development of adaptation plans, we present 80 adaptation options suitable for coastal communities that can be applied by local governments. They are a catena of options from defend to co-exist and finally, retreat that progresses as impacts become less manageable. Options are organized according to their capacity to protect local properties and infrastructure, natural systems, food production, availability of fresh and drinking water and well-being of the local population, as these are likely to be affected by climate change. To respond to multiple threats, ‘soft’ options, such as awareness raising, planning, political articulation and financial incentives, insurance and professional skills enhancement, can be encouraged immediately at relatively low cost and are reversible. For specific threats, options emphasize change in management practices as pre-emptive measures. Key audiences for this work are communities and local governments starting to consider priority actions to respond to climate change impacts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

26 pages, 780 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Perception of Environmental Spillovers Across Scale in Climate Change Adaptation Planning: The Case of Small-Scale Farmers’ Irrigation Strategies, Kenya

by Volenzo Tom Elijah and John O. Odiyo

Climate 2020, 8(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010003 - 26 Dec 2019

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 5137

Abstract

The failure to acknowledge and account for environmental externalities or spillovers in climate change adaptation policy, advocacy, and programming spaces exacerbate the risk of ecological degradation, and more so, the degradation of land. The use of unsuitable water sources for irrigation may increase [...] Read more.

The failure to acknowledge and account for environmental externalities or spillovers in climate change adaptation policy, advocacy, and programming spaces exacerbate the risk of ecological degradation, and more so, the degradation of land. The use of unsuitable water sources for irrigation may increase salinisation risks. However, few if any policy assessments and research efforts have been directed at investigating how farmer perceptions mediate spillovers from the ubiquitous irrigation adaptation strategy. In this study, the cognitive failure and/or bias construct is examined and proposed as an analytical lens in research, policy, and learning and the convergence of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation discourses. A cross-sectional survey design and multistage stratified sampling were used to collect data from 69 households. To elicit the environmental impacts of irrigation practices, topsoil and subsoils from irrigated and non-irrigated sites were sampled and analysed using AAS (atomic absorption spectrophotometer). A generalised linear logistic weight estimation procedure was used to analyse the perception of risks while an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to analyse changes in exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). The findings from small-scale farmers in Machakos and Kakamega counties, Kenya, suggest multifaceted biases and failures about the existence and importance of externalities in adaptation planning discourses. Among other dimensions, a cognitive failure which encompasses fragmented approaches among institutions for use and management of resources, inadequate policy. and information support, as well as the poor integration of actors in adaptation planning accounts for adaptation failure. The failures in such human–environment system interactions have the potential to exacerbate the existing vulnerability of farmer production systems in the long run. The findings further suggest that in absence of risk message information dissemination, education level, farming experience, and information accumulation, as integral elements to human capital, do not seem to have a significant effect on behaviour concerning the mitigation of environmental spillovers. Implicitly, reversing the inherent adaptation failures calls for system approaches that enhance coordinated adaptation planning, prioritise the proactive mitigation of slow-onset disaster risks, and broadens decision support systems such as risk information dissemination integration, into the existing adaptation policy discourses and practice. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

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18 pages, 1016 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Economic and Ecological Impacts of Increased Drought Frequency in the Edwards Aquifer

by Jinxiu Ding and Bruce A. McCarl

Climate 2020, 8(1), 2; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010002 - 20 Dec 2019

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4064

Abstract

This paper examines how increased drought frequency impacts water management in arid region, namely the Edwards Aquifer (EA) region of Texas. Specifically, we examine effects on the municipal, industrial, and agricultural water use; land allocation; endangered species supporting springflows and welfare. We find [...] Read more.

This paper examines how increased drought frequency impacts water management in arid region, namely the Edwards Aquifer (EA) region of Texas. Specifically, we examine effects on the municipal, industrial, and agricultural water use; land allocation; endangered species supporting springflows and welfare. We find that increases in drought frequency causes agriculture to reduce irrigation moving land into grassland for livestock with a net income loss. This also increases water transfer from irrigation uses to municipal and industrial uses. Additionally, we find that regional springflows and well elevation will decline under more frequent drought condition, which implicates the importance of pumping limits and/or minimum springflow limits. Such developments have ecological implications and the springflows support endangered species and a switch from irrigated land use to grasslands would affect the regional ecological mix. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

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17 pages, 2562 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Climate Change Impacts on Forest Management: A Case of Korean Oak Wilt

by Hyunjin An, Sangmin Lee and Sung Ju Cho

Climate 2019, 7(12), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7120141 - 12 Dec 2019

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3266

Abstract

Climate change is expected to affect the occurrence of forest pests. This study depicts a method to measure the impact of damage inflicted by a forest pest like oak wilt as a result of climate change. We determine the damage function considering the [...] Read more.

Climate change is expected to affect the occurrence of forest pests. This study depicts a method to measure the impact of damage inflicted by a forest pest like oak wilt as a result of climate change. We determine the damage function considering the factors related to the pest damage and forecast the future damage rate under future climate change. We estimated the damage rate by using the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) and predicted the future damage rate by using representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 data. We assessed the impact of pests on the management income and the rotation age by using a dynamic optimization model. The results show that the damage rate and the affected area from oak wilt would increase under the climate change. In addition, the economic evaluation indicates that altered climate would reduce the management returns and increase uncertainty. However, these outcomes could be alleviated by carrying out the control and prevention measures after the infection occurs. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

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17 pages, 2990 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Achieving Food Security in a Climate Change Environment: Considerations for Environmental Kuznets Curve Use in the South African Agricultural Sector

by Saul Ngarava, Leocadia Zhou, James Ayuk and Simbarashe Tatsvarei

Climate 2019, 7(9), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7090108 - 3 Sep 2019

Cited by 21 | Viewed by 5059

Abstract

This study relates agricultural income and agricultural carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the context of environmental Kuznets curves for South Africa. We posit likely relationships between UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 1, 2 and 13, relating food production to climate change [...] Read more.

This study relates agricultural income and agricultural carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the context of environmental Kuznets curves for South Africa. We posit likely relationships between UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 1, 2 and 13, relating food production to climate change action. CO₂ emissions, income, coal energy consumption and electricity energy consumption time series data from 1990 to 2012 within the South African agricultural sector were used. The autoregressive distributive lag bounds-test and the error correction model were used to analyse the data. The results show long-run relationships. However, agricultural income was only significant in the linear and squared models. Changes in agricultural CO₂ emissions from the short run towards the long run are estimated at 71.9%, 124.7% and 125.3% every year by the linear, squared and cubic models, respectively. Exponentially increasing agricultural income did not result in a decrease in agricultural CO₂ emissions, which is at odds with the Kuznets hypothesis. The study concludes that it will be difficult for South Africa to simultaneously achieve SDGs 1, 2 and 13, especially given that agriculture is reliant upon livestock production, the largest CO₂ emitter in the sector_. The sector needs to shift to renewable energy consumption with fewer CO₂ emissions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

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Review

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11 pages, 529 KiB

Open AccessReview

The Future of Semi-Arid Regions: A Weak Fabric Unravels

by Robert J Scholes

Climate 2020, 8(3), 43; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8030043 - 13 Mar 2020

Cited by 60 | Viewed by 13078

Abstract

The regions of the world where average precipitation is between one fifth and half of the potential plant water demand are termed ‘semi-arid’. They make up 15.2% of the global land surface, and the approximately 1.1 billion people who live there are among [...] Read more.

The regions of the world where average precipitation is between one fifth and half of the potential plant water demand are termed ‘semi-arid’. They make up 15.2% of the global land surface, and the approximately 1.1 billion people who live there are among the world’s poorest. The inter-annual variability of rainfall in semi-arid regions is exceptionally high, due to intrinsic features of the global atmospheric circulation. The observed and projected climate trends for most semi-arid regions indicate warming at rates above the global mean rate over land, increasing evaporative demand, and reduced and more variable rainfall. Historically, the ecosystems and people coped with the challenges of semi-arid climates using a range of strategies that are now less viable. Semi-arid ecosystems are by definition water limited, generally only suitable for extensive pastoralism and opportunistic cropping, unless irrigation supplementation is available. The characteristics of dryland plant production in semi-arid ecosystems, as they interact with climate change and human systems, provide a conceptual framework for why land degradation is so conspicuous in semi-arid regions. The coupled social-ecological failures are contagious, both within the landscape and at regional and global scales. Thus, semi-arid lands are a likely flashpoint for Earth system changes in the 21st century. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

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19 pages, 977 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperReview

Integrating Agriculture and Ecosystems to Find Suitable Adaptations to Climate Change

by Anastasia W. Thayer, Aurora Vargas, Adrian A. Castellanos, Charles W. Lafon, Bruce A. McCarl, Daniel L. Roelke, Kirk O. Winemiller and Thomas E. Lacher

Climate 2020, 8(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010010 - 9 Jan 2020

Cited by 25 | Viewed by 6738

Abstract

Climate change is altering agricultural production and ecosystems around the world. Future projections indicate that additional change is expected in the coming decades, forcing individuals and communities to respond and adapt. Current research efforts typically examine climate change effects and possible adaptations but [...] Read more.

Climate change is altering agricultural production and ecosystems around the world. Future projections indicate that additional change is expected in the coming decades, forcing individuals and communities to respond and adapt. Current research efforts typically examine climate change effects and possible adaptations but fail to integrate agriculture and ecosystems. This failure to jointly consider these systems and associated externalities may underestimate climate change impacts or cause adaptation implementation surprises, such as causing adaptation status of some groups or ecosystems to be worsened. This work describes and motivates reasons why ecosystems and agriculture adaptation require an integrated analytical approach. Synthesis of current literature and examples from Texas are used to explain concepts and current challenges. Texas is chosen because of its high agricultural output that is produced in close interrelationship with the surrounding semi-arid ecosystem. We conclude that future effect and adaptation analyses would be wise to jointly consider ecosystems and agriculture. Existing paradigms and useful methodology can be transplanted from the sustainable agriculture and ecosystem service literature to explore alternatives for climate adaptation and incentivization of private agriculturalists and consumers. Researchers are encouraged to adopt integrated modeling as a means to avoid implementation challenges and surprises when formulating and implementing adaptation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

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