Climate Change Impacts on Forest Management: A Case of Korean Oak Wilt
Korea Rural Economic Institute, Naju-si, Jeollanam-do 58321, Korea
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Climate 2019, 7(12), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7120141
Received: 31 October 2019 / Revised: 10 December 2019 / Accepted: 10 December 2019 / Published: 12 December 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)
Climate change is expected to affect the occurrence of forest pests. This study depicts a method to measure the impact of damage inflicted by a forest pest like oak wilt as a result of climate change. We determine the damage function considering the factors related to the pest damage and forecast the future damage rate under future climate change. We estimated the damage rate by using the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) and predicted the future damage rate by using representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 data. We assessed the impact of pests on the management income and the rotation age by using a dynamic optimization model. The results show that the damage rate and the affected area from oak wilt would increase under the climate change. In addition, the economic evaluation indicates that altered climate would reduce the management returns and increase uncertainty. However, these outcomes could be alleviated by carrying out the control and prevention measures after the infection occurs.
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Keywords:
climate change; forest pests; economic impacts; Korean oak wilt; representative concentration pathways
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MDPI and ACS Style
An, H.; Lee, S.; Cho, S.J. Climate Change Impacts on Forest Management: A Case of Korean Oak Wilt. Climate 2019, 7, 141.
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