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Achieving Food Security in a Climate Change Environment: Considerations for Environmental Kuznets Curve Use in the South African Agricultural Sector

1
Risk and Vulnerability Science Centre, University of Fort Hare, Alice 5700, South Africa
2
Department of Agri-business and Entrepreneurship, Marondera University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Marondera 00263, Zimbabwe
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2019, 7(9), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7090108
Received: 22 July 2019 / Revised: 26 August 2019 / Accepted: 27 August 2019 / Published: 3 September 2019
This study relates agricultural income and agricultural carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the context of environmental Kuznets curves for South Africa. We posit likely relationships between UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 1, 2 and 13, relating food production to climate change action. CO2 emissions, income, coal energy consumption and electricity energy consumption time series data from 1990 to 2012 within the South African agricultural sector were used. The autoregressive distributive lag bounds-test and the error correction model were used to analyse the data. The results show long-run relationships. However, agricultural income was only significant in the linear and squared models. Changes in agricultural CO2 emissions from the short run towards the long run are estimated at 71.9%, 124.7% and 125.3% every year by the linear, squared and cubic models, respectively. Exponentially increasing agricultural income did not result in a decrease in agricultural CO2 emissions, which is at odds with the Kuznets hypothesis. The study concludes that it will be difficult for South Africa to simultaneously achieve SDGs 1, 2 and 13, especially given that agriculture is reliant upon livestock production, the largest CO2 emitter in the sector. The sector needs to shift to renewable energy consumption with fewer CO2 emissions. View Full-Text
Keywords: agriculture; carbon dioxide; environmental Kuznets curves; South Africa; sustainable development goals agriculture; carbon dioxide; environmental Kuznets curves; South Africa; sustainable development goals
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ngarava, S.; Zhou, L.; Ayuk, J.; Tatsvarei, S. Achieving Food Security in a Climate Change Environment: Considerations for Environmental Kuznets Curve Use in the South African Agricultural Sector. Climate 2019, 7, 108.

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