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Atmosphere
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Extreme Weather Events in Siberia
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Extreme Weather Events in Siberia

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (25 October 2023) | Viewed by 12739

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Olga Antokhina

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science (IAO SB RAS), Tomsk 634055, Russia
Interests: atmospheric circulation; weather events; hydrosphere and atmosphere interactions; extremes; large-scale atmospheric phenomena; climate change

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events (EWE) is the most dramatic consequence of global climate change. EWE include such weather phenomena as periods of prolonged heat and cold (heat and cold spell), squalls and tornadoes, and hurricanes, extremely high precipitation, lightning, hail storms, and others. Siberia is uniquely vulnerable to climate change; however, despite great efforts, at the moment, there is still insufficient information regarding weather extremes both in the past and during the period of observed warming of the climate. This Special Issue aims to collect as much information about extreme weather events in Siberia as possible. We invite research on all seasons, scales, and types of extremes.

Dr. Olga Antokhina
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  •  Siberia
  •  weather extremes
  •  precipitation
  •  drought
  •  climate change
  •  forest fire
  •  flood
  •  vegetation
  •  synoptic scale
  •  large-scale atmospheric circulation
  •  atmospheric blocking
  •  Rossby waves breaking
  •  cold and warm spell
  •  heat wave
  •  gas and aerosol composition

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 17304 KiB  
Article
Lightning-Ignited Wildfires and Associated Meteorological Conditions in Western Siberia for 2016–2021
by Elena Kharyutkina, Evgeniia Moraru, Konstantin Pustovalov and Sergey Loginov
Atmosphere 2024, 15(1), 106; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010106 - 15 Jan 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1482
Abstract
The analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of lightning-ignited wildfires and meteorological conditions preceding their occurrence from both dry lightning and lightning with precipitation in Western Siberia for the warm seasons (May–September) of 2016–2021 was carried out. In the Arctic zone, fires from lightnings [...] Read more.
The analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of lightning-ignited wildfires and meteorological conditions preceding their occurrence from both dry lightning and lightning with precipitation in Western Siberia for the warm seasons (May–September) of 2016–2021 was carried out. In the Arctic zone, fires from lightnings occur in most cases (83%) almost without precipitation (<2.5 mm/day), whereas in the forest and steppe zones the number of cases is less (81% and 74%, respectively). The most significant changes in meteorological conditions before the ignition were also revealed in the northern part 3–4 days before. Among all considered parameters, the most important role in the occurrence of dry lightning-ignited wildfires belongs to mid-tropospheric instability, lower-tropospheric dryness, and the moisture content of the top soil and surface floor layer. Moreover, in the Arctic zone of Western Siberia, more extreme (hotter and drier) meteorological conditions should be observed for the occurrence of ignition from lightning. The threshold values for the considered meteorological parameters were derived for our region for the first time. Obtained results can be used in the development of models for potential fire hazards prediction in various landscapes, which will have a practical application in various spheres of the national economy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in Siberia)
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16 pages, 5211 KiB  
Article
Long-Term Trends of Extreme Climate Indexes in the Southern Part of Siberia in Comparison with Those of Surrounding Regions
by Takanori Watanabe, Hiroshi Matsuyama, Irina Kuzhevskaia, Olga Nechepurenko, Vladislav Chursin and Valerii Zemtsov
Atmosphere 2023, 14(7), 1131; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071131 - 8 Jul 2023
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2387
Abstract
Siberia, which experienced disastrous heat waves in 2010 and 2012, is one of the regions in which extreme climate events have occurred recently. To compare the long-term trends of extreme climate events in the southern part of Siberia with those of surrounding regions, [...] Read more.
Siberia, which experienced disastrous heat waves in 2010 and 2012, is one of the regions in which extreme climate events have occurred recently. To compare the long-term trends of extreme climate events in the southern part of Siberia with those of surrounding regions, we calculated 11 extreme climate indexes from observational data for 1950–2019 and analyzed the trends in Siberia and other parts of Russia using statistical techniques, i.e., Welch’s t-test, the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and a cluster analysis. We clarified that high-temperature events in March are more frequent in Siberia than in the surrounding areas. However, the increasing trends of high temperatures in Siberia were lower than those in northwestern China and Central Asia. The intensity of heavy precipitation is increasing in Siberia, as it is in the surrounding areas. Compared to the surrounding areas analyzed in previous studies, the trend of heavy precipitation in Siberia has not increased much. In particular, Siberia shows a more remarkable decreasing trend in heavy precipitation during the summer than other regions. The dry trends in the summer, however, do not occur in Siberia as a whole, and the opposite trend of summer precipitation was observed in some areas of Siberia. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in Siberia)
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14 pages, 22670 KiB  
Article
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events in Eastern Siberia and Mongolia
by Olga Antokhina, Pavel Antokhin, Alexander Gochakov, Anna Zbirannik and Timur Gazimov
Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 480; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030480 - 28 Feb 2023
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2377
Abstract
The socioeconomic impacts caused by floods in the south of Eastern Siberia (SES), and the expected increase in precipitation extremes over northern Eurasia, have revealed the need to search for atmospheric circulation patterns that cause extreme precipitation events (EPE) in SES, as well [...] Read more.
The socioeconomic impacts caused by floods in the south of Eastern Siberia (SES), and the expected increase in precipitation extremes over northern Eurasia, have revealed the need to search for atmospheric circulation patterns that cause extreme precipitation events (EPE) in SES, as well as their changes. We investigate the circulation patterns causing extreme precipitation in SES and Mongolia, by examining the instability and moisture transport associated with potential vorticity (PV) dynamics during two time periods: 1982–1998 and 1999–2019. The EPE were characterized by an increase in instability within the precipitation area, which was compensated by stability around the area, with the East Asian summer monsoon transport being enhanced. PV in the subtropical regions and mid-latitudes has shown the amplification of positive and negative PV anomalies to the southeast and northwest of Lake Baikal, respectively. The PV contours for EPE have shapes of cyclonic wave breaking and cutoff low. EPE accompanied by wave breaking are characterized by strong redistribution areas, with extremely high and low stability and moisture. This can lead to the coexistence of floods and droughts, and in part was the driver of the earlier revealed “seesaw” precipitation mode over Mongolia and SES. We suggest a shift of extreme precipitation to the northwest has occurred, which was probably caused by the wave propagation change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in Siberia)
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23 pages, 6385 KiB  
Article
An Empirical Relationship among Characteristics of Severe Convective Storms, Their Cloud-Top Properties and Environmental Parameters in Northern Eurasia
by Alexander Chernokulsky, Andrey Shikhov, Yulia Yarinich and Alexander Sprygin
Atmosphere 2023, 14(1), 174; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010174 - 13 Jan 2023
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3045
Abstract
Severe convective storms that produce tornadoes and straight-line winds usually develop under particular environmental conditions and have specific signatures on the cloud tops associated with intense updrafts. In this study, we performed a comparative analysis of satellite-derived characteristics, with a focus on cloud-top [...] Read more.
Severe convective storms that produce tornadoes and straight-line winds usually develop under particular environmental conditions and have specific signatures on the cloud tops associated with intense updrafts. In this study, we performed a comparative analysis of satellite-derived characteristics, with a focus on cloud-top properties, and ERA5-based environmental parameters of convective storms in forested regions of the western part of Northern Eurasia in 2006–2021. The analyzed sample includes 128 different convective storms that produced 138 tornadoes and 143 linear windstorms. We found most tornadoes and linear windstorms are generated by quasi-linear convective storms or supercells. Such supercells form under lower convective instability and precipitable water content compared to those for other types of storms. We found a significant negative correlation of minimum temperature on the storm cloud top with instability parameters. In turn, the longevity of convective storms significantly correlates with wind shear and storm-relative helicity. About half of the tornadoes and 2/3 of linear windstorms are associated with the presence of cloud-top signatures, such as overshooting tops, cold-ring or cold U/V features. The events associated with such signatures are formed under high values of instability parameters. Our results can be used for further analysis of peculiarities of tornado and linear windstorm formation and to enhance the predictability of such severe events, especially in regions with a lack of weather radar coverage. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in Siberia)
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22 pages, 18481 KiB  
Article
Deterministic–Probabilistic Prediction of Forest Fires from Lightning Activity Taking into Account Aerosol Emissions
by Nikolay Viktorovich Baranovskiy, Viktoriya Andreevna Vyatkina and Aleksey Mikhailovich Chernyshov
Atmosphere 2023, 14(1), 29; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010029 - 24 Dec 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2034
Abstract
Forest fires arise from anthropogenic load and lightning activity. The formation of a thunderstorm front is due to the influence of a number of factors, including the emission of aerosol particles from forest fires. The purpose of this study is mathematical modeling of [...] Read more.
Forest fires arise from anthropogenic load and lightning activity. The formation of a thunderstorm front is due to the influence of a number of factors, including the emission of aerosol particles from forest fires. The purpose of this study is mathematical modeling of heat and mass transfer in vegetation firebrand carried out from a forest fire front, taking into account the formation of soot particles to predict forest fire danger from thunderstorm activity. Research objectives: (1) development of a deterministic mathematical model of heat and mass transfer in a pyrolyzed firebrand of vegetation, taking into account soot formation; (2) development of a probabilistic criterion for assessing forest fire danger from thunderstorms, taking into account aerosol emissions; (3) scenario modeling of heat and mass transfer and the formation of a thunderstorm front; (4) and the formulation of conclusions and proposals for the practical application of the developed deterministic–probabilistic approach to the prediction of forest fires from thunderstorms, taking into account aerosol emissions. The novelty of this study lies in the development of a new model of heat and mass transfer in a pyrolyzed vegetation firebrand and a new probabilistic criterion for forest fire danger due to thunderstorm activity, taking into account aerosol emission. The distributions of temperature and volume fractions of phases in a firebrand are obtained for various scenarios. Scenarios of surface fires, crown forest fires, and a fire storm are considered for typical types of coniferous vegetation. Cubic firebrands are considered in the approximation of a two-dimensional mathematical model. To describe the heat and mass transfer in the firebrand structure, a differential heat conduction equation is used with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions, taking into account the kinetic scheme of pyrolysis and soot formation. Variants of using the developed mathematical model and probabilistic criterion in the practice of protecting forests from fires are proposed. Key findings: (1) linear deterministic–probabilistic mathematical model to assess forest fire occurrence probability taking into account aerosol emission and lightning activity; (2) results of mathematical modeling of heat and mass transfer in firebrand taking into account soot formation; (3) and results of scenario modeling of forest fire occurrence probability for different conditions of lightning activity and aerosol emission. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in Siberia)
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