Early School Leaving: Definition, Causes, and Consequences

Definition

Early School Leaving (ESL), or Early Leaving from Education and Training (ELET), remains a critical challenge across Europe and globally, with profound implications encompassing economic disadvantages, social exclusion, and reduced life opportunities for individuals. This entry analyzes the authoritative definition of the phenomenon, explores the multifaceted causes that drive it, and outlines the severe professional, social, and psychological consequences of failing to attain a minimal credential. ESL is widely understood not as an abrupt event but as a complex, cumulative, long-term process of school disengagement that is influenced by a myriad of interconnected risk factors originating in childhood and early adolescence. Understanding the interplay between individual, family, and institutional factors is crucial for designing effective, coordinated policy responses.

1. Introduction or History

At the European Union (EU) level, the concept of ELET is officially defined as the percentage of the population aged 18 to 24 years old who have completed at most a lower secondary education, International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) 2011 levels 0, 1, or 2, and who were not involved in any further education or training during the four weeks preceding the labor force survey [1,2,3]. The EU adopted the term ELET to more clearly include those young people who have dropped out of vocational training tracks [4]. The concept of “school dropout” is typically defined as leaving education without obtaining a minimal credential, most often an upper secondary education diploma [5].

ELET is considered a major social concern and its prevention is a strategic objective and a top policy priority throughout the EU [1,3]. In 2024, the average ELET rate in the EU was 9.3%, equating to approximately 3.1 million young people [6]. There is significant variation in this rate among the Member States [7]. For instance, despite impressive advancements, Spain’s ESL rate, which was 13% in 2024, remains among the highest among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and EU nations [3,8].

Numerous other educational and social issues are closely related to the ESL phenomenon. A related term, underachievement, is the failure to meet predetermined achievement objectives for a particular age group. This can manifest as negative behaviors like learning difficulties, chronic absenteeism, low motivation, and grade repetition [2]. ESL is often the culmination of a long process of disengagement and disassociation from education that frequently begins in the early school years [9].

Another commonly used metric related to ESL is the status of being NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) [10,11]. Young people who have low educational attainment face a high risk of being NEET. The European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan includes an objective to decrease the NEET rate to below 9% by 2030 [6,12].

These influences operate at multiple levels—individual, family, socioeconomic, institutional, and structural—and their combined effects shape students’ engagement, achievement, and educational trajectories.

2. Causes of Early School Leaving

ESL is rarely attributable to a single factor, but rather results from a complex interaction of numerous personal, family, community, and institutional aspects [7,13,14,15]. Research suggests that no single risk factor accurately predicts ESL, but predictability significantly increases when multiple risk factors are concurrently considered [14,16].

2.1. Individual and Psychological Factors

Student characteristics, psychological traits, and behaviors are examples of individual-level factors [2,17]. Low academic achievement is frequently the most significant predictor of a student leaving school early because low grades indicate a lack of readiness for further education [8,18,19]. Academic engagement and parental educational attainment have a strong correlation with student performance [13].

Mental disorders are recognized as one of the top individual reasons for school dropouts. Students suffering from mental disorders are at risk of chronic depression, potentially leading to poor school performance and dropout [20,21]. A longitudinal study found that mental health problems were strongly associated with high school dropout (Relative Risk 1.96) and becoming NEET (RR 2.44) [22]. High school dropouts are frequently linked to conditions such as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), conduct disorder, and depression, while mood disorders are often a factor in college dropouts. However, the predictive contribution of self-rated mental health at the beginning of upper secondary school may be less pronounced than academic metrics, such as prior grades [20,23]. Student engagement includes behavioral, emotional/affective, and cognitive elements and these, behavioral engagement, encompassing involvement in academic work, attendance, and homework completion, is highly relevant for predicting future outcomes [13,24,25,26]. Moreover, disciplinary issues, such as school suspension (temporary removal from school), are strongly related to poor educational outcomes, often affecting young people already disengaged from the educational process [27].

Self-regulatory processes—including goal-setting, persistence, study strategies, self-monitoring, and perceived academic self-efficacy—also play a significant role in students’ educational trajectories. Students with limited self-regulation or weak study skills often struggle to meet academic demands, which can contribute to declining performance, frustration, and disengagement. Research rooted in self-regulated learning theories demonstrates that low motivation, poor time management, and reduced confidence in one’s academic capabilities are all associated with increased risk of early school leaving. Strengthening self-regulatory competencies has therefore been highlighted as a key preventive strategy in reducing ESL [28].

Reasons for early leaving from vocational education and training (ELVET) often include a lack of motivation, dissatisfaction with the chosen profession, difficulties managing studies, non-attendance, and inadequate vocational practice or internship placement difficulties [1].

While individual characteristics strongly shape educational engagement, these factors do not operate in isolation. Family background and socioeconomic circumstances often amplify or mitigate individual vulnerabilities, influencing students’ academic performance, attitudes toward school, and persistence.

2.2. Family and Socioeconomic Factors

Parental educational attainment, particularly maternal education, is consistently linked to students’ academic performance, engagement, and long-term educational outcomes [9,24,29]. Students whose parents have a low level of education reach upper secondary education at lower rates compared to their peers [6]. Maternal educational level is a stronger predictor of a student’s academic achievement than the paternal level [24].

Childhood adversity is a significant contributor to marginalization. Early life adversities—including low household income, stressful life events, or parental chronic conditions—increase the likelihood of an individual becoming NEET in early adulthood [30]. Furthermore, childhood adversity is strongly associated with the long-term use of social benefits, an association for which early school leaving acts as an important explanatory mechanism, accounting for between 30% and 58% of the relationship across different adversity groups [31].

Economic necessity and family burdens are often direct factors in leaving school. Young people frequently cite the need to seek work or manage family needs as reasons for exiting education [8]. Narratives from early school leavers indicate that family burdens, such as parental illness, the loss of family members, or domestic violence, play a substantial role by affecting the student’s ability to focus on schoolwork [32,33].

2.3. Institutional and Structural Factors

Institutional shortcomings within the educational system, such as overcrowding, insufficient teacher training, or rigid and culturally irrelevant curricula, contribute directly to widespread student disengagement and ESL. ESL is a structural problem. In Vocational Education and Training (VET), early leaving (ELVET) remains a persistent challenge across Europe [15,34]. The EU early leaving rate from VET was 11.4% in 2021. Male students generally show a higher incidence of premature VET termination [8,15]. Macroeconomic factors also play a role; high ESL prevalence is related to regional labor markets dominated by sectors like construction and agriculture, which are large providers of low-qualified jobs [8,35].

2.4. Data-Driven Early Warning Systems

Beyond the structural and individual risk factors already outlined, recent policy-oriented studies emphasize that tackling ESL requires integrating data-driven early warning systems into everyday school practice. Machine learning models based on longitudinal student records, attendance patterns, and prior academic performance can help teachers identify at-risk students before disengagement becomes irreversible [9,13,22]. These predictive analytics, when combined with teacher professional development, empower educators to initiate timely interventions such as mentoring, tutoring, or flexible pathways in Vocational Education and Training (VET) [15,34]. Importantly, predictive tools must be ethically governed, respecting data privacy and ensuring that early flagging does not stigmatize students [2,35].

3. Institutional Buffers and Protective Factors

A systematic review identified institutional factors that can act as buffers against ESL and underachievement: adopting heterogeneous classrooms; promoting a climate of high expectations; implementing critical pedagogies and an engaging, culturally sensitive curriculum; facilitating positive and dialogic interactions with adults and peers; providing tailored support and guidance services; and nurturing the equitable involvement of families and communities [2,35]. Early access to multiple vocational education tracks, high pre-primary enrollment rates, and continuous teacher training are also strongly and negatively correlated with ESL. Furthermore, within pre-vocational programs aimed at school-to-work transition, successfully attaining a higher school certificate and participating in long internships are associated with smooth transitions to VET, acting to protect youth from problematic pathways [10,36].

The social context also plays a crucial role through reference groups. Parents and friends serve a normative function; apprentices are more likely to successfully complete VET if they perceive that these groups expect them to do so. Classmates and parents also serve a comparative function; apprentices who perceive high career ambitions among their classmates may be intimidated, increasing the risk of ESL (in favor of switching to another training occupation) [37].

Another emerging protective factor is the cultivation of school belonging and inclusive peer climates. Research indicates that perceived acceptance from classmates can buffer dropout intentions among students in poverty and immigrant backgrounds [28,37]. School belonging is reinforced through culturally responsive pedagogy, cooperative learning, and structured peer mentoring [24,35]. Interventions that blend academic catch-up with socio-emotional learning—particularly in the transition to lower secondary education—appear effective in reducing ESL by enhancing motivation and emotional resilience [25,26].

The COVID-19 pandemic provided an unplanned large-scale test of system resilience regarding ESL. Extended school closures and unequal access to digital tools disproportionately affected vulnerable learners, leading to spikes in disengagement, absenteeism, and early leaving [1,3,8]. Countries that combined rapid digital provision with outreach (e.g., home visits, hybrid support, and small group tutoring) were better able to stabilize enrolment and mitigate long-term dropout [6,33]. These lessons reinforce the importance of strong digital inclusion strategies as a core prevention mechanism.

4. Consequences of Early School Leaving

The consequences of ESL are devastating, generating significant individual and societal costs [2].

4.1. Economic and Occupational Consequences

Young people who leave education prematurely face challenges finding and keeping a job, making them prone to long-term social and economic disadvantage [8]. Limited educational attainment narrows employment opportunities, increasing the likelihood of securing precarious, physically demanding, and low-paid employment [15,33]. The wider economic costs of ELET, stemming from lower productivity, decreased tax revenues, and increased welfare payments, are substantial [1]. Individuals with low educational attainment are at a high risk of being neither in education, employment, nor training (NEET). Being NEET is linked to long-term labor market exclusion and social exclusion. Childhood adversity, mediated by early school leaving, explains a large share of cases involving the long-term use of social benefits in young adulthood [11,22,30].

4.2. Social, Psychological, and Legal Consequences

Beyond employment precarity and health disparities, early leavers experience lower civic participation and weaker democratic engagement. Evidence links ESL with reduced voting rates and lower trust in institutions [9,15]. The psychosocial toll is significant; feelings of stigma and identity disruption can persist into adulthood, often intergeneration-ally [38,39]. Such negative self-perceptions interact with economic strain, deepening cycles of disadvantage and social marginalization [2,30,31].

ESL is associated with health problems [2,38]. Young adults who leave school early face increased vulnerability to poor health outcomes, including mental health problems, civic disengagement, and social marginalization [9,15,33]. College non-completion is a relatively common outcome (affecting an estimated one-third of entrants in OECD countries) that can result in unequal psychological and health-related well-being in adulthood. Students who drop out of college often report feelings of failure, shame, and a negative self-image [39,40].

Regarding judicial outcomes, school exclusion measures, such as suspension, significantly increase the probability of detention in a correctional facility at a young age and are linked to higher rates of criminal behavior. Furthermore, chronic absence patterns in early adolescence are predictors of low school attainment [8,41].

5. Conclusions

Early school leaving is a systemic, multidimensional challenge rooted in the complex interplay of individual circumstances, socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and institutional deficiencies. Given that the ESL process is complex and cumulative, often beginning in the early school years, successful strategies to tackle ESL necessitate a comprehensive, long-term combination of prevention, intervention, and compensation measures.

Effective prevention efforts must prioritize early identification and address precursors such as low achievement, chronic absenteeism, and student disengagement starting in the primary school phase. This requires harnessing the power of identified institutional buffers—such as culturally sensitive curricula, proactive school monitoring, and tailored support services—to foster equitable learning environments that acknowledge the heterogeneity of student backgrounds and promote inclusion.

European and OECD frameworks converge on multi-tiered strategies: (1) universal prevention (high-quality pre-primary education, inclusive curricula, teacher training); (2) targeted support (mentoring, alternative learning pathways, psychosocial support); and (3) compensatory measures (second-chance schools, modular certifications for returners) [1,3,14,36]. Successful models stress strong inter-sectoral collaboration—schools working closely with social services, mental health providers, and employers to create coherent support ecosystems [7,13,35]. Monitoring indicators aligned with the EU 2030 target allow for adaptive policy refinement and resource allocation [6,42].

At the policy level, reducing ESL is not only a matter of educational reform but also a cornerstone of broader social inclusion strategies. The European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan explicitly sets the target of reducing early leavers from education and training to below 9% by 2030, linking this goal to employment, social participation, and well-being. At the global level, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4)—“Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all”—underscores that tackling ESL is indispensable for advancing equal opportunities and social justice [42]. Aligning national policies with these frameworks reinforces that combating early school leaving is both a pedagogical and a societal imperative.

Combating ESL is not simply about keeping students in classrooms but about ensuring learning environments where all young people can flourish. The interplay of predictive analytics, equitable pedagogies, psychosocial supports, and robust second-chance pathways forms a comprehensive blueprint. Countries investing in these multi-level approaches report measurable reductions in dropout and improved well-being among vulnerable youth [8,24,33]. Integrating these insights into national and EU-level strategies will be essential to achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 4 and the European Pillar of Social Rights benchmarks [6,42].