Climate Change, Nature-Based Tourism, and Aging: Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience in Urban and Natural Protected Areas—Semi-Systematic Review
Abstract
1. Introduction
- How are climate vulnerability and resilience conceptualized in the literature within the framework of NBT under changing climate conditions?
- What methods, indicators, and frameworks have been applied in the literature to assess socio-ecological dimensions regarding climate shifts in UPAs versus NPAs?
- To what extent do current literature approaches integrate human health, well-being, and aging considerations within NBT assessments?
- What conceptual and methodological gaps remain, and how might future frameworks advance inclusive, climate-resilient management of protected areas?
2. Literature Review
2.1. The Interplay Between Climatic Shifts and Socio-Ecological Systems
2.2. Cross-Disciplinary Knowledge for Strengthening NBT Resilience
2.3. Applied PRISMA Methodology for a Semi-Systematic Literature Review
3. Materials and Methods
- H1: In the NBT contexts, climate vulnerability is primarily conceptualized through environmental and socio-economic impacts, while resilience is framed through adaptive capacity and resource management strategies [64].
- H2: UPAs employ more integrated frameworks incorporating socio-economic and demographic indicators, whereas NPAs emphasize ecological and environmental metrics [65].
- H4: Current research lacks longitudinal and cross-regional analyses critical for understanding dynamic vulnerabilities and resilience trajectories over time [68].
4. Results
4.1. Descriptive Trends
4.2. Comparative Thematic Analysis
4.2.1. Methodological Orientations
4.2.2. Vulnerability and Adaptation
4.2.3. Socio-Demographic Considerations
4.2.4. Synthesis Across Ecological, Social, Economic, and Health Dimensions
5. Discussion
5.1. Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Resilience Across UPAs and NPAs
5.2. Resilience Pathways in UPAs and NPAs
5.3. Elderly Well-Being at the Climate–Nature Nexus: Risks, Ecosystem Services, and Adaptive Strategies
5.4. Synthesis and Implications
5.5. Integrating Ecosystem Integrity and Human Well-Being in Climate-Resilient Tourism
5.6. Practical Implications
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Coding Category | Definition | Inclusion Indicators | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Protected rea type (UPA/NPA/Mixed) | Classification of study setting by degree of urbanization | Mentions urban green areas, peri-urban parks, protected wilderness areas | Urban green corridor; national park |
| Conceptual focus | Whether the study addresses vulnerability, resilience, or both | Explicit definitions; conceptual frameworks | Social–ecological resilience model |
| Methodological approach | Analytical tools used | Indicator models, participatory methods, simulation modeling | IPCC-based vulnerability index |
| Key variables and indicators | Dimensions included in assessment | Ecological, socio-demographic, governance, health indicators | Heat-stress exposure for seniors |
| Population groups | Whether aging or health groups are addressed | References to elderly, accessibility, mobility, vulnerability to heat | Older adults’ adaptive behavior |
| Criterion | Description | Scoring Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| Clarity of aims | Whether objectives are clearly stated | High: explicit; Moderate: implicit; Low: unclear |
| Methodological transparency | Clarity of methods, sampling, data collection | High: fully transparent; Moderate: partial; Low: unclear |
| Rigor of analysis | Appropriateness and robustness of analytic techniques | High: justified and coherent; Moderate: adequate; Low: limited |
| Relevance to research question | Alignment with climate–tourism–aging nexus | High: strong; Moderate: partial; Low: weak |
| Evidence robustness | Strength and consistency of findings | High: triangulated; Moderate: suggestive; Low: anecdotal |
| Category | Conceptual Focus | Methodological Approaches | Key Variables and Indicators | Population Focus/Health Consideration | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Protected Areas (UPAs) | Vulnerability; urban biodiversity and ecosystem services; UHI mitigation | Indicator-based (macroecological analysis, soil and vegetation, remote sensing) | Environmental: urban species richness, soil and vegetation chemical status, urban heat island, climate change; Social: urban planning; Economic: GDP; Health: indirect via ecosystem services and green infrastructure | Urban populations; indirect benefits for human well-being; aging population not specifically considered | [75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,84] |
| Natural Protected Areas (NPAs) | Vulnerability, resilience, integrated assessment; human well-being and ecosystem services; climate impacts; trade-offs, climate and anthropogenic stress; species redistribution; coral survival; seafood security; blue carbon; freshwater and coastal water sustainability; recreational and nautical tourism impacts | Mixed-methods, indicator-based, qualitative interviews, focus groups, DPSIR, ecosystem service modeling, hierarchical regression, Before–After–Control–Impact; Review, qualitative case studies, participatory methods, remote sensing, modeling, transcriptomics, risk assessment, impact chains, biophysical modeling, InVEST modeling, NbS assessment, bibliometrics, surveys | Environmental: biodiversity, ecosystem services, natural capital, climate change impacts, ecosystem isolation/connectivity; Social: community relations, livelihoods, governance, participatory engagement; Economic: income, livelihood strategies, provisioning, ecotourism; Health: subjective well-being, mental and physical health, resilience, nutrition Environmental: coral reefs, seagrass and mangroves, freshwater systems, reef fish biomass, sea surface temperature, bleaching events, ecosystem pressures, blue carbon, water abundance, recreational ecosystem use; Social: community participation, governance, equity, stakeholder engagement; Economic: fisheries, tourism, water–energy–food nexus, livelihoods, provisioning; Health: food security, mental well-being, resilience, healthcare access, equitable resource distribution | Local communities, occupational groups (guides, fishers, farmers/herders), indigenous groups; health outcomes frequently included; aging populations rarely considered. Coastal/marine-dependent communities, freshwater-reliant populations, fishers, Indigenous groups; human well-being outcomes included aging populations rarely considered | [85,86,87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111,112,113,114,115,116,117,118,119,120,121,122] |
| Mixed/Indigenous Protected Areas/Cultural Context | Integrated assessment; resilience; community and Indigenous well-being; social–ecological systems; transformative governance; ecosystem-based adaptation; VUCA conditions; nature-based recreation; regenerative tourism | Qualitative, participatory, case studies, social benefit–cost analysis, photovoice, policy analysis, hybrid ecological compensation, adaptive management, MARISCO, system-based frameworks, spatial–temporal recreation modeling | Environmental: biodiversity, ecosystem services, land management, adaptation interventions, nature-based recreation resources; Social: governance, culture, equity, justice, community capacity, participatory knowledge; Economic: tourism, livelihoods, ecosystem-based adaptation benefits; Health: human well-being, social resilience, mental and physical health indirectly | Local and Indigenous communities; emphasis on well-being, resilience, and social justice; aging populations not explicitly considered | [97,99,105,109,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,130] |
| Dimension | Urban Protected Areas (UPAs) | Natural Protected Areas (NPAs) |
|---|---|---|
| Dominant stressors | Urban heat, air pollution, habitat fragmentation | Climate-induced habitat loss, biodiversity shifts, invasive species |
| Methodological orientation | GIS mapping, participatory surveys, thermal comfort indices, social vulnerability analysis | Biophysical modeling, biodiversity monitoring, mixed ecological–social assessments |
| Health and aging focus | Moderate to high, proximity to urban populations allows integration of health, well-being, and accessibility metrics | Low, aging populations and visitor well-being rarely addressed |
| Adaptation approach | Engineered and governance-based (green infrastructure, urban greening, adaptive zoning) | Ecosystem-based and community-driven (connectivity conservation, Indigenous knowledge systems) |
| Policy Domain | Urban Protected Areas (UPAs) | Non-Urban Protected Areas (NPAs) | Policy Dimension |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governance Infrastructure Financing | Adaptive zoning strategies and greening of urban areas with the involvement of experts in the fields of human health, well-being and safety | Co-management frameworks incorporating Indigenous and local governance | Governance |
| Heat-resilient urban design and health-adaptive recreation infrastructure | Climate-smart trail systems and ecosystem-based visitor infrastructure | Infrastructure | |
| Green bonds and ecosystem-service-based urban financing models | REDD+-linked or conservation-oriented investment mechanisms | Financing | |
| Policy Domain Governance | Adaptive zoning strategies and greening of urban areas with the involvement of experts in the fields of human health, well-being and safety | Co-management frameworks incorporating Indigenous and local governance | Governance |
| Infrastructure Financing Policy Domain Governance | Heat-resilient urban design and health-adaptive recreation infrastructure | Climate-smart trail systems and ecosystem-based visitor infrastructure | Infrastructure |
| Green bonds and ecosystem-service-based urban financing models | REDD+-linked or conservation-oriented investment mechanisms | Financing | |
| Adaptive zoning strategies and greening of urban areas with the involvement of experts in the fields of human health, well-being and safety | Co-management frameworks incorporating Indigenous and local governance | Governance |
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Marković Vukadin, I.; Zovko, M.; Mandić, A.; Zovko, D. Climate Change, Nature-Based Tourism, and Aging: Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience in Urban and Natural Protected Areas—Semi-Systematic Review. Urban Sci. 2025, 9, 543. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9120543
Marković Vukadin I, Zovko M, Mandić A, Zovko D. Climate Change, Nature-Based Tourism, and Aging: Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience in Urban and Natural Protected Areas—Semi-Systematic Review. Urban Science. 2025; 9(12):543. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9120543
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarković Vukadin, Izidora, Mira Zovko, Ante Mandić, and Damjan Zovko. 2025. "Climate Change, Nature-Based Tourism, and Aging: Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience in Urban and Natural Protected Areas—Semi-Systematic Review" Urban Science 9, no. 12: 543. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9120543
APA StyleMarković Vukadin, I., Zovko, M., Mandić, A., & Zovko, D. (2025). Climate Change, Nature-Based Tourism, and Aging: Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience in Urban and Natural Protected Areas—Semi-Systematic Review. Urban Science, 9(12), 543. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9120543

