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Article

Comparative Analysis of Wind Energy Generation Forecasts in Poland and Portugal and Their Influence on the Electricity Exchange Prices

1
Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal, and Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
2
INESC-ID/IST, University of Lisbon, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
3
Institute of Projects and Analyses, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Inventions 2020, 5(3), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/inventions5030035
Received: 21 June 2020 / Revised: 21 July 2020 / Accepted: 24 July 2020 / Published: 25 July 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Technologies for the Energy Systems of the Future)
Currently, the privileged position of wind energy producers is being weakened by their enforced participation in the market on equal terms. This requires accurate production forecasting. The main aim of this study is to comparatively examine the wind generation forecasts in Poland and Portugal, as well as to verify their influence on the day-ahead market prices. The statistical analysis revealed significant deviations of the forecasted and actual wind production in both countries, which referred to the corresponding spot and balancing prices caused considerable financial losses by the wind energy suppliers. In this paper, the influence of the wind generation forecasts on the spot prices has been examined through developed the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA), ARMA with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) and non-linear auto-regressive neural network (NAR), NAR with exogenous inputs (NARX)artificial neural network (ANN) models. The results have shown that the usability of the information of forecasted wind generation is not unequivocal in models developed for spot prices in Poland, mainly because of the randomness and volatility of recorded wind generation forecasts. However, in the case of Portugal, the forecasted wind generation occurred to be a valuable input in spot prices models, which results in an improvement in the models’ accuracy. View Full-Text
Keywords: electricity price forecasting (EPF); wind power forecasting (WPF); spot market; balancing market; ARMAX; NARX-ANN electricity price forecasting (EPF); wind power forecasting (WPF); spot market; balancing market; ARMAX; NARX-ANN
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MDPI and ACS Style

Rogus, R.; Castro, R.; Sołtysik, M. Comparative Analysis of Wind Energy Generation Forecasts in Poland and Portugal and Their Influence on the Electricity Exchange Prices. Inventions 2020, 5, 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/inventions5030035

AMA Style

Rogus R, Castro R, Sołtysik M. Comparative Analysis of Wind Energy Generation Forecasts in Poland and Portugal and Their Influence on the Electricity Exchange Prices. Inventions. 2020; 5(3):35. https://doi.org/10.3390/inventions5030035

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rogus, Radomir, Rui Castro, and Maciej Sołtysik. 2020. "Comparative Analysis of Wind Energy Generation Forecasts in Poland and Portugal and Their Influence on the Electricity Exchange Prices" Inventions 5, no. 3: 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/inventions5030035

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