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Article

On the Choice of Metric to Calibrate Time-Invariant Ensemble Kalman Filter Hyper-Parameters for Discharge Data Assimilation and Its Impact on Discharge Forecast Modelling

Département de Genie Civil et de Genie du Bâtiment, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC J1K 2R1, Canada
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Academic Editor: Lorena Liuzzo
Hydrology 2021, 8(1), 36; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8010036
Received: 30 December 2020 / Revised: 12 February 2021 / Accepted: 20 February 2021 / Published: 24 February 2021
An important step when using some data assimilation methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter and its variants, is to calibrate its parameters. Also called hyper-parameters, these include the model and observation errors, which have previously been shown to have a strong impact on the performance of the data assimilation method. Many metrics can be used to calibrate these hyper-parameters but may not all yield the same optimal set of values. The current study investigated the importance of the choice of metric used during the hyper-parameter calibration phase and its impact on discharge forecasts. The types of metrics used each focused on discharge accuracy, ensemble spread or observation-minus-background statistics. The calibration was performed for the ensemble square root Kalman filter over two catchments in Canada using two different hydrologic models per catchment. Results show that the optimal set of hyper-parameters depended heavily on the choice of metric used during the calibration phase, where data assimilation was applied. These sets of hyper-parameters in turn produced different hydrologic forecasts. This influence was reduced as the forecast lead time increased, because of not applying data assimilation in the forecast mode, and accordingly, convergence of model state ensembles produced in the calibration phase. However, the influence could remain considerable for a few days up to multiple weeks depending on the catchment and the model. As such, a preliminary analysis would be recommended for future studies to better understand the impact that metrics can have within and outside the bounds of hyper-parameter calibration. View Full-Text
Keywords: ensemble square root Kalman filter; ensemble Kalman filter; hydrologic modelling; hyper-parameter calibration; discharge forecasting ensemble square root Kalman filter; ensemble Kalman filter; hydrologic modelling; hyper-parameter calibration; discharge forecasting
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MDPI and ACS Style

Bergeron, J.; Leconte, R.; Trudel, M.; Farhoodi, S. On the Choice of Metric to Calibrate Time-Invariant Ensemble Kalman Filter Hyper-Parameters for Discharge Data Assimilation and Its Impact on Discharge Forecast Modelling. Hydrology 2021, 8, 36. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8010036

AMA Style

Bergeron J, Leconte R, Trudel M, Farhoodi S. On the Choice of Metric to Calibrate Time-Invariant Ensemble Kalman Filter Hyper-Parameters for Discharge Data Assimilation and Its Impact on Discharge Forecast Modelling. Hydrology. 2021; 8(1):36. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8010036

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bergeron, Jean, Robert Leconte, Mélanie Trudel, and Sepehr Farhoodi. 2021. "On the Choice of Metric to Calibrate Time-Invariant Ensemble Kalman Filter Hyper-Parameters for Discharge Data Assimilation and Its Impact on Discharge Forecast Modelling" Hydrology 8, no. 1: 36. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8010036

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