Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market
by
Smilja Djurdjevic 1
, Peter N. Lee 2, Rolf Weitkunat 1, Zheng Sponsiello-Wang 1, Frank Lüdicke 1 and Gizelle Baker 1,*
Smilja Djurdjevic 1, Peter N. Lee 2, Rolf Weitkunat 1, Zheng Sponsiello-Wang 1, Frank Lüdicke 1 and Gizelle Baker 1,*
1
Philip Morris International R&D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, Neuchâtel 2000, Switzerland
2
P. N. Lee Statistics and Computing Ltd., 17 Cedar Road, Sutton SM2 5DA, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Healthcare 2018, 6(2), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare6020047
Received: 4 April 2018 / Revised: 24 April 2018 / Accepted: 26 April 2018 / Published: 16 May 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Health Management)
Philip Morris International (PMI) has developed the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) to quantify, in the absence of epidemiological data, the effects of marketing a candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP) on the public health of a whole population. Various simulations were performed to understand the harm reduction impact on the U.S. population over a 20-year period under various scenarios. The overall reduction in smoking attributable deaths (SAD) over the 20-year period was estimated as 934,947 if smoking completely went away and between 516,944 and 780,433 if cMRTP use completely replaces smoking. The reduction in SADs was estimated as 172,458 for the World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 Target and between 70,274 and 90,155 for the gradual cMRTP uptake. Combining the scenarios (WHO 2025 Target and cMRTP uptake), the reductions were between 256,453 and 268,796, depending on the cMRTP relative exposure. These results show how a cMRTP can reduce overall population harm additionally to existing tobacco control efforts.
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Keywords:
public; tobacco; risk; modified; reduced; nicotine; non-combustible; health; smoking; harm
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MDPI and ACS Style
Djurdjevic, S.; Lee, P.N.; Weitkunat, R.; Sponsiello-Wang, Z.; Lüdicke, F.; Baker, G. Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market. Healthcare 2018, 6, 47.
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