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Article

Spatial and Seasonal Variations and Inter-Relationship in Fitted Model Parameters for Rainfall Totals across Australia at Various Timescales

1
Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
2
Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
3
CSIRO Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2019, 7(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7010004
Received: 14 November 2018 / Revised: 18 December 2018 / Accepted: 29 December 2018 / Published: 2 January 2019
Probabilistic models are useful tools in understanding rainfall characteristics, generating synthetic data and predicting future events. This study describes the results from an analysis on comparing the probabilistic nature of daily, monthly and seasonal rainfall totals using data from 1327 rainfall stations across Australia. The main objective of this research is to develop a relationship between parameters obtained from models fitted to daily, monthly and seasonal rainfall totals. The study also examined the possibility of estimating the parameters for daily data using fitted parameters to monthly rainfall. Three distributions within the Exponential Dispersion Model (EDM) family (Normal, Gamma and Poisson-Gamma) were found to be optimal for modelling the daily, monthly and seasonal rainfall total. Within the EDM family, Poisson-Gamma distributions were found optimal in most cases, whereas the normal distribution was rarely optimal except for the stations from the wet region. Results showed large differences between regional and seasonal ϕ-index values (dispersion parameter), indicating the necessity of fitting separate models for each season. However, strong correlations were found between the parameters of combined data and those derived from individual seasons (0.70–0.81). This indicates the possibility of estimating parameters of individual season from the parameters of combined data. Such relationship has also been noticed for the parameters obtained through monthly and daily models. Findings of this research could be useful in understanding the probabilistic features of daily, monthly and seasonal rainfall and generating daily rainfall from monthly data for rainfall stations elsewhere. View Full-Text
Keywords: Exponential Dispersion Model (EDM) family; Tweedie distribution; Poisson-Gamma distribution; Rainfall; Australia Exponential Dispersion Model (EDM) family; Tweedie distribution; Poisson-Gamma distribution; Rainfall; Australia
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MDPI and ACS Style

Hasan, M.M.; Croke, B.F.W.; Karim, F. Spatial and Seasonal Variations and Inter-Relationship in Fitted Model Parameters for Rainfall Totals across Australia at Various Timescales. Climate 2019, 7, 4. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7010004

AMA Style

Hasan MM, Croke BFW, Karim F. Spatial and Seasonal Variations and Inter-Relationship in Fitted Model Parameters for Rainfall Totals across Australia at Various Timescales. Climate. 2019; 7(1):4. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7010004

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hasan, Md M., Barry F.W. Croke, and Fazlul Karim. 2019. "Spatial and Seasonal Variations and Inter-Relationship in Fitted Model Parameters for Rainfall Totals across Australia at Various Timescales" Climate 7, no. 1: 4. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7010004

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