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Econometrics, Volume 13, Issue 1

2025 March - 12 articles

Cover Story: This paper introduces an innovative hybrid forecasting framework that integrates the Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA) model with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. Designed to effectively capture both linear and non-linear long-memory dynamics, the proposed GARMA-LSTM approach consistently surpasses conventional forecasting techniques when handling complex time series exhibiting cyclical, seasonal, and persistent behaviors. Extensive simulation studies combined with rigorous empirical analyses validate significant improvements in forecast accuracy and robustness. By leveraging the complementary strengths of traditional statistical modeling and advanced deep learning methods, the hybrid GARMA-LSTM model provides a powerful and reliable forecasting solution, broadly applicable across diverse domains with challenging temporal patterns. View this paper
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Articles (12)

  • Article
  • Open Access
3 Citations
7,253 Views
20 Pages

Dynamic Interaction Between Microfinance and Household Well-Being: Evidence from the Microcredit Progressive Model for Sustainable Development

  • Ahmad Alqatan,
  • Najoua Talbi,
  • Hasan Behbehani,
  • Samira Ben Belgacem,
  • Muhammad Arslan and
  • Wafaa Sbeiti

Microfinance aims to promote financial inclusion among underprivileged individuals, particularly through progressive microcredit, which enables borrowers to access increasing loan amounts over time. This study examines the conditions under which prog...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
4,361 Views
18 Pages

Real Option Valuation of an Emerging Renewable Technology Design in Wave Energy Conversion

  • James A. DiLellio,
  • John C. Butler,
  • Igor Rizaev,
  • Wanan Sheng and
  • George Aggidis

The untapped potential of wave energy offers another alternative to diversifying renewable energy sources and addressing climate change by reducing CO2 emissions. However, development costs to mature the technology remain significant hurdles to adopt...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
2,532 Views
17 Pages

Examining the energy consumer behavioral model is critical for national governments and academia. This endeavor seeks to uncover effective solutions amid the energy crisis and climate change challenges. This article delves into legislative developmen...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1,520 Views
13 Pages

Markov switching models are a common tool used in many disciplines as well as in Economics, and estimation methods are available in many software packages. Estimated models are commonly used for allocating observations to regimes. This allocation is...

  • Article
  • Open Access
4 Citations
7,009 Views
36 Pages

This study compared standard VAR, SVAR with short-run restrictions, and SVAR with long-run restrictions to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) on consumer prices in South Africa after the 2008 financial...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
3,227 Views
14 Pages

Conditional β-Convergence in APEC Economies, 1960–2020: Empirical Evidence from the Pooled Mean Group Estimator

  • César Lenin Navarro-Chávez,
  • Julio César Morán-Figueroa and
  • Francisco Javier Ayvar-Campos

The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of conditional variables—physical capital, population, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP)—on the economic convergence of the member economies of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APE...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
1,592 Views
17 Pages

This paper revisits the topic of time-scale parameterizations of the Heston–Nandi GARCH (1,1) model to create a new, theoretically valid setting compatible with real financial data. We first estimate parameters using three US market indices and...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1,825 Views
12 Pages

This paper presents an innovative approach to financial market modelling by integrating fuzzy discount factors into the decision-making process, thereby reflecting the complexities of human behaviour. Traditional financial models often fail to accoun...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1,772 Views
24 Pages

The paper contains five parts—a theory about entrepreneurial choice under uncertainty, a formal econometric structure for a test, the test, an appraisal of the test, and a description of the data generating process. Here, an entrepreneur is an...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
3,196 Views
23 Pages

Optimal Time Series Forecasting Through the GARMA Model

  • Adel Hassan A. Gadhi,
  • Shelton Peiris,
  • David E. Allen and
  • Richard Hunt

This paper examines the use of machine learning methods in modeling and forecasting time series with long memory through GARMA. By employing rigorous model selection criteria through simulation study, we find that the hybrid GARMA-LSTM model outperfo...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
2,184 Views
26 Pages

Forecasting Half-Hourly Electricity Prices Using a Mixed-Frequency Structural VAR Framework

  • Gaurav Kapoor,
  • Nuttanan Wichitaksorn,
  • Mengheng Li and
  • Wenjun Zhang

Electricity price forecasting has been a topic of significant interest since the deregulation of electricity markets worldwide. The New Zealand electricity market is run primarily on renewable fuels, and so weather metrics have a significant impact o...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
2,462 Views
16 Pages

Survival analysis is a popular research tool in medicine and demography. It has been used for many years to study the duration of socio-economic phenomena. The aim of this article is to evaluate the relationship between the coefficients of the propor...

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Econometrics - ISSN 2225-1146