Abstract
Against the backdrop of the growing prevalence of green trade barriers, these unilateral measures are continually eroding the industrial chain resilience of developing countries. Taking China’s steel industry as a case study, this research employs the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) framework and a system dynamics model to explore the role of green finance in this process. Scenario-based simulation results indicate that: (1) green trade barriers exert shocks on the industrial chain resilience of China’s steel industry, yet the degree of variation in resistance, recovery, and adaptive capacity differs across dimensions; (2) green finance and its accompanying policies can still play an effective role in responding to green trade barriers, though they are neither a panacea nor the sole solution; (3) the sensitivity of different regulatory measures varies with respect to the distinct dimensions of industrial chain resilience. Drawing on the simulation analysis and subsequent discussion, this study puts forward a set of conditional policy recommendations, providing a reference for governmental decision-making under comparable circumstances.