Abstract
Licorice is an important specialty crop that links agricultural production, processing and trade, and rural livelihoods in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. Using UN Comtrade data for HS 130212 from 1990 to 2024, this study evaluates the international Trade Competitiveness of China’s licorice exports and identifies the sources of export growth. A multi-indicator static framework is constructed, combining International Market Share (IMS), the Trade Competitiveness Index (TC), the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage index (RSCA) and the Revealed Competitive Advantage index (CA). The results show that China maintains a relatively large and stable global market share and a persistent net export position, but its comparative and net Competitive Advantages are weaker than those of high-end suppliers such as France and Israel, revealing a pattern of “large scale but weak competitiveness”. To capture dynamic drivers, an extended Constant Market Share (CMS) model is applied to decompose China’s licorice exports into world demand, structural and competitiveness effects. The decomposition indicates that export growth has gradually shifted from being mainly driven by global demand expansion to relying more on improvements in product competitiveness and market reconfiguration, particularly in emerging markets. These findings suggest that upgrading product quality and processing, strengthening standards and branding, and promoting more inclusive value-chain development are essential for transforming China’s licorice exports from scale expansion to high-quality growth and for enhancing rural incomes in producing regions.