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Article

Novel Application of Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Weather Radars in the Korean Peninsula

1
Innovation Center for Engineering Education, Daejin University, Pocheon-si, Gyeonggi-do 11159, Korea
2
Department of Safety Engineering, Incheon National University, Incheon 22012, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10(21), 7928; https://doi.org/10.3390/app10217928
Received: 4 October 2020 / Revised: 2 November 2020 / Accepted: 5 November 2020 / Published: 9 November 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Civil Engineering)
Several sources of bias are involved at each stage of a quantitative precipitation estimation process because weather radars measure precipitation amounts indirectly. Conventional methods compare the relative uncertainties between different stages of the process but seldom present the total uncertainty. Therefore, the objectives of this study were as follows: (1) to quantify the uncertainty at each stage of the process and in total; (2) to elucidate the ratio of the uncertainty at each stage in terms of the total uncertainty; and (3) to explain the uncertainty propagation process at each stage. This study proposed novel application of three methods (maximum entropy method, uncertainty Delta method, and modified-fractional uncertainty method) to determine the total uncertainty, level of uncertainty increase, and percentage of uncertainty at each stage. Based on data from 18 precipitation events that occurred over the Korean Peninsula, the applicability of the three methods was tested using a radar precipitation estimation process that comprised two quality control algorithms, two precipitation estimation methods, and two post-processing precipitation bias correction methods. Results indicated that the final uncertainty of each method was reduced in comparison with the initial uncertainty, and that the uncertainty was different at each stage depending on the method applied. View Full-Text
Keywords: radar-based precipitation; uncertainty quantification; uncertainty propagation; maximum entropy; delta method; fractional uncertainty method radar-based precipitation; uncertainty quantification; uncertainty propagation; maximum entropy; delta method; fractional uncertainty method
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MDPI and ACS Style

Lee, J.-K.; Song, C.G. Novel Application of Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Weather Radars in the Korean Peninsula. Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 7928. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10217928

AMA Style

Lee J-K, Song CG. Novel Application of Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Weather Radars in the Korean Peninsula. Applied Sciences. 2020; 10(21):7928. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10217928

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lee, Jae-Kyoung, and Chang G. Song 2020. "Novel Application of Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Weather Radars in the Korean Peninsula" Applied Sciences 10, no. 21: 7928. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10217928

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