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Open AccessArticle

Drought Prediction System for Central Europe and Its Validation

1
Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
2
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno Regional Office, Kroftova 43, 616 67 Brno, Czech Republic
3
Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2018, 8(4), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040104
Received: 16 January 2018 / Revised: 15 February 2018 / Accepted: 15 March 2018 / Published: 21 March 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Prediction)
In recent years, two drought monitoring systems have been developed in the Czech Republic based on the SoilClim and AVISO soil moisture models. The former is run by Mendel University and Global Change Research Institute (CAS), while the latter, by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. SoilClim is based more on real soil properties and aimed primarily at agriculture, while AVISO complements the system with more theoretical presumptions about soil, showing, rather, climatological potential. Both soil moisture models were complemented by forecasts on a daily basis, taking meteorological inputs from NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models and thus giving short- to mid-range outlooks up to 9 days ahead. Validation of the soil moisture and drought intensity prediction was performed and is presented in this article showing its prediction reliability and potential. In the analysis, we focus mainly on the past year, 2017. The tool has strong predictive power for soil moisture and drought intensity so it is suitable for farmers who need to make decisions about irrigation and production activities. The presented system is fully functional and can be applied in the coming years. View Full-Text
Keywords: drought prediction; soil moisture models; SoilClim model; AVISO model; medium range forecast drought prediction; soil moisture models; SoilClim model; AVISO model; medium range forecast
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Štěpánek, P.; Trnka, M.; Chuchma, F.; Zahradníček, P.; Skalák, P.; Farda, A.; Fiala, R.; Hlavinka, P.; Balek, J.; Semerádová, D.; Možný, M. Drought Prediction System for Central Europe and Its Validation. Geosciences 2018, 8, 104.

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