Next Article in Journal
Strategies for Assessing Arbovirus Genetic Variability in Vectors and/or Mammals
Previous Article in Journal
Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Mortality in Adult Renal Transplant Recipients with Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia
Previous Article in Special Issue
Comparison of Japanese Encephalitis Force of Infection in Pigs, Poultry and Dogs in Cambodian Villages
Open AccessArticle

Farm-Level Risk Factors of Increased Abortion and Mortality in Domestic Ruminants during the 2010 Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Central South Africa

1
EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY 10018, USA
2
Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
3
ExecuVet PTY LTD., Bloemfontein 9301, Free State, South Africa
4
Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD 21046, USA
5
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
6
Centre for Emerging Zoonotic and Parasitic Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg 2192, South Africa
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Pathogens 2020, 9(11), 914; https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9110914
Received: 1 October 2020 / Revised: 25 October 2020 / Accepted: 30 October 2020 / Published: 4 November 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Japanese Encephalitis and Rift Valley Fever)
(1) Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in domestic ruminants have severe socio-economic impacts. Climate-based continental predictions providing early warnings to regions at risk for RVF outbreaks are not of a high enough resolution for ruminant owners to assess their individual risk. (2) Methods: We analyzed risk factors for RVF occurrence and severity at the farm level using the number of domestic ruminant deaths and abortions reported by farmers in central South Africa during the 2010 RVF outbreaks using a Bayesian multinomial hurdle framework. (3) Results: We found strong support that the proportion of days with precipitation, the number of water sources, and the proportion of goats in the herd were positively associated with increased severity of RVF (the numbers of deaths and abortions). We did not find an association between any risk factors and whether RVF was reported on farms. (4) Conclusions: At the farm level we identified risk factors of RVF severity; however, there was little support for risk factors of RVF occurrence. The identification of farm-level risk factors for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) occurrence would support and potentially improve current prediction methods and would provide animal owners with critical information needed in order to assess their herd’s risk of RVFV infection. View Full-Text
Keywords: Rift Valley fever; abortions; deaths; Bayesian; clinical signs; risk factors; prediction; farm level; ruminants; hurdle multinomial Rift Valley fever; abortions; deaths; Bayesian; clinical signs; risk factors; prediction; farm level; ruminants; hurdle multinomial
Show Figures

Figure 1

  • Supplementary File 1:

    RAR-Document (RAR, 976 KiB)

  • Externally hosted supplementary file 1
    Doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4242975
    Link: https://zenodo.org/record/4242975
    Description: Cache of code and deidentified data associated with the analysis.
MDPI and ACS Style

Rostal, M.K.; Cleaveland, S.; Cordel, C.; Staden, L.; Matthews, L.; Anyamba, A.; Karesh, W.B.; Paweska, J.T.; Haydon, D.T.; Ross, N. Farm-Level Risk Factors of Increased Abortion and Mortality in Domestic Ruminants during the 2010 Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Central South Africa. Pathogens 2020, 9, 914.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop