# River-Blocking Risk Analysis of the Bageduzhai Landslide Based on Static–Dynamic Simulation

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## Abstract

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## 1. Introduction

^{3}barrier lake that flooded the town of Sissle and caused damage estimated at more than USD 200 million. In 2005, a 7.6-magnitude earthquake in Pakistan triggered a large landslide and blocked a river, forming a 130 m high barrier dam. The incident killed a total of 1000 people and completely destroyed a village. In January 2010, a landslide dam that had occurred on the Hunza River at the junction of China and Pakistan failed and destroyed the China–Pakistan Expressway, which is the highest altitude roadway in the world, and caused more than 20 deaths [1]. In November 2018, a landslide occurred again at the ‘10.11’ mountain landslide point in Baige Village, Boluo Township, Jiangda County, Changdu City, Tibet Autonomous Region, causing the Jinsha River to be blocked and a barrier lake to be formed. After the flood discharged, a large flood peak appeared due to the excessive accumulation of water. The disaster caused 102,000 people in Tibet, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces to be affected, and the affected crop area was 35,000 hectares. Roads, bridges, electricity and other infrastructure in some areas along the river were seriously damaged, with economic losses of more than 15 billion yuan.

## 2. Landslide Investigation

#### 2.1. Research Area Overview

_{4}

^{fgl}), the colluvial layer (Q

_{4}

^{col+dl}), the aeolian loess layer (Q

_{4}

^{eol}), the alluvial layer (Q

_{4}

^{pal}) and the Triassic Upper Yajiang Formation (T

_{3}y). The area is mainly covered in loose rock, pore water and bedrock-fissure water. Pore phreatic water mainly occurs in the sand and gravel layers of the riverbed and the terrace of the Duke River and the loose soil deposits in the gully in the middle and lower parts of the Wuyicun slope, and it is partially distributed in the Quaternary loose deposits in the slope area on both sides of the gully. Bedrock-fissure water is widely distributed in the shallow-surface weathering-unloading zones and the tectonic-fissure zones. Through the data obtained from simple hydrological observation of the borehole cuttings in the study area and the hydrogeological investigation and analysis of the landslide area, there is no groundwater level present in the borehole, the buried depth of the stable groundwater level is low and there is no stable spring point exposed in the front shear outlet area. This results in landslide deformation and the failure being less affected by the groundwater level. The Bageduzhai landslide is located in the region of the Duke River. The shear crack of the landslide is located on the inside of the road, away from the river. Our research of the stability analysis mainly focuses on obtaining the slide mass volume and the location of slide plane to provide the initial condition for dynamic process simulation. Therefore, the water level of the landslide may play a smaller role in the progress of the landslide and can be ignored.

#### 2.2. Landslide Characteristics

#### 2.2.1. Overall Characteristics of Landslides

_{4}

^{eol}), the humus layer, the Quaternary colluvial gravel soil (Q

_{4}

^{col+dl}) and the Quaternary ice-water accumulation gravel layer (Q

_{1-3}

^{fgl}) in front of the landslide, as shown in Figure 4.

#### 2.2.2. Landslide Deformation and Failure Characteristics

_{4}

^{col+dl}) and a Quaternary ice-water accumulation layer (Q

^{fgl}). The boundary of the strong deformation area is a circular crack, the back wall is bright, and the crack is filled with gravel soil and plant roots. There are also seven secondary cracks in the strong deformation zone, with multiple levels of scraping, obvious local dislocation cracking, loose and broken rock and soil mass, which are easily aggravated by rainfall or earthquakes. The shear outlet of the front edge of the strong deformation zone is the G227 National Highway and the Duke River. The high and steep excavation slope inside the highway has collapsed under the action of valley incision and air unloading, which is manifested by the outward deformation of the highway retaining wall, the bulging deformation of the steel gabion, the bulging soil crack and the local collapse deformation, as shown in Figure 5.

#### 2.2.3. Instability Mechanism of the Bageduzhai Landslide

## 3. Calculation Conditions and Parameter Calibration

#### 3.1. Calculation Conditions

#### 3.2. Calculation Parameters

## 4. Landslide Deformation and Stability Analysis under Different Conditions

#### 4.1. Deformation Characteristics of Landslides under Ordinary Rainfall Conditions

#### 4.2. Deformation Characteristics of Landslides under Extremely High-Intensity Rainfall Conditions

#### 4.3. Landslide Stability Analysis

## 5. Landslide Dynamics Analysis under Different Conditions

#### 5.1. Ordinary Rainfall Conditions

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#### 5.2. High-Intensity Rainfall Conditions

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^{3}, which completely blocked the river channel.

#### 5.3. Discussion

## 6. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Data Availability Statement

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

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**Figure 4.**Surface loess and Quaternary ice-water accumulation gravel soil (middle and rear part of landslide).

**Figure 7.**Particle size distribution and physical flume model experiment. (

**a**) The particle grading diagram of the landslide; (

**b**) the channel of experiment and numerical simulation.

**Figure 8.**Comparison of the indoor physical model experiment and the numerical simulation at 500 ms, 900 ms and 1400 ms.

**Figure 10.**The topographic map and the stability analysis calculation model of the landslide. (

**a**) Topographic map of the landslide area; (

**b**) the numerical model of the stability analysis.

**Figure 11.**Characteristics of the landslide stress field in the strong deformation zone under ordinary rainfall conditions. (

**a**) Maximum principal stress; (

**b**) Minimum principal stressss; (

**c**) Maximum principal stress of section; (

**d**) Minimum principal stress of section.

**Figure 12.**Deformation characteristics of landslides in strong deformation zones under ordinary rainfall conditions. (

**a**) Total displacement; (

**b**) Horizontal displacement; (

**c**) Total displacement of section; (

**d**) Horizontal displacement of profile.

**Figure 13.**Characteristics of the landslide stress field in the weak deformation zone under extreme rainfall conditions. (

**a**) Maximum principal stress; (

**b**) Minimum principal stressss; (

**c**) Maximum principal stress of section; (

**d**) Minimum principal stress of section.

**Figure 14.**Deformation characteristics of landslides in weak deformation zones under extreme rainfall conditions. (

**a**) Total displacement; (

**b**) Horizontal displacement; (

**c**) Total displacement of section; (

**d**) Horizontal displacement of profile.

**Figure 16.**The dynamic process calculation model of the landslide. (

**a**) Three-dimensional physical model of landslide; (

**b**) original landform of landslide.

**Figure 17.**Evolutionary process of the sliding velocity in front of the landslide (Ordinary Rainfall Conditions).

**Figure 18.**The final simulation results of the landslide in ordinary rainfall condition. Sliding displacement of the landslide mass. (

**a**) Sliding displacement of the landslide mass; (

**b**) accumulation depth of the landslide mass.

**Figure 19.**Evolutionary process of the sliding velocity in front of the landslide (High-Intensity Rainfall Conditions).

**Figure 21.**The simulation results of the first landslide in high-intensity rainfall condition. (

**a**) Displacement after sliding (front strong deformation zone); (

**b**) accumulation depth after sliding.

**Figure 22.**The simulation results of the second landslide in high-intensity rainfall condition. (

**a**) Displacement after all sliding (before and after landslide); (

**b**) accumulation depth after all sliding.

**Figure 23.**The range of the height of river-blocking after the landslide instability failure occurs.

Rock | Bulk Modulus K (GPa) | Shear Modulus G (GPa) |
---|---|---|

Bed rock | 2.00 | 1.600 |

Secondary slip zone | 0.07 | 0.062 |

Main sliding belt | 0.07 | 0.062 |

Landslide mass | 0.08 | 0.075 |

Rock | Density (kg/m^{3}) | Cohesion (MPa) | Friction Angle (°) |
---|---|---|---|

Bed rock | 2500 | 1.2 | 35 |

Secondary slip zone | 2200 | 0.1 | 22 |

Main sliding belt | 2250 | 0.15 | 25 |

Landslide mass | 2300 | 0.18 | 28 |

Compressive Parameters of State Equation of Landslide Mass | B (GPa) | 4.00 × 10^{7} |

Internal friction coefficient under normal rainfall conditions | ${\mu}_{1}$ | 0.404 (22°) |

Internal friction coefficient under high-intensity rainfall condition | ${\mu}_{2}$ | 0.363 (20°) |

Viscosity coefficient | η (Pa·s) | 0.01 |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Li, D.; Guo, C.; Liang, H.; Sun, X.; Ma, L.; Zhu, X.
River-Blocking Risk Analysis of the Bageduzhai Landslide Based on Static–Dynamic Simulation. *Water* **2023**, *15*, 3739.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213739

**AMA Style**

Li D, Guo C, Liang H, Sun X, Ma L, Zhu X.
River-Blocking Risk Analysis of the Bageduzhai Landslide Based on Static–Dynamic Simulation. *Water*. 2023; 15(21):3739.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213739

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Li, Dexin, Chengchao Guo, Heng Liang, Xinpo Sun, Liqun Ma, and Xueliang Zhu.
2023. "River-Blocking Risk Analysis of the Bageduzhai Landslide Based on Static–Dynamic Simulation" *Water* 15, no. 21: 3739.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213739